9. Going all the way….
“A clever man commits no minor blunders.”
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
10. My expertise
• Multidisciplinary engineering physics
• Complex systems
11. Definition of expert #1
Expert (noun): a person who is more than 50 miles from home,
has no responsibility for implementing the advice he gives,
and shows slides.
12. Definition of expert #2
Expert (noun): a person sufficiently jaded with all the facts that
he declares when something cannot be done.
13. Acknowledgements
• A/Prof Brian O’Neill University of Adelaide
• Prof M. Tariq Iqbal Memorial University of Newfoundland
• Prof Valerie Linton University of Adelaide
• Prof Andrzej Calka University of Wollongong
• Dr Yung Ngothai University of Adelaide
• Daniel Kammerer BMW, München
15. Today’s goal
The highest education is that which does not merely give us
information but makes our life in harmony with all existence.
Rabindranath Tagore
17. The scale of the problem
World energy consumption = 15 terawatts
27. Important preface: two-pronged approach
A viable energy solution is built on the
foundation of sensible energy conservation
28. Example: Everyone drives a car for 1hr a day
5 billion people drive a car with a 50 kW engine for 1hr/day
5 × 109 × 50 × 103 × 365 × 60 × 60/(365 × 24 × 60 × 60) = 10 TW
31. What is the upper bound for oil volume?
Sunlight conversion to plant matter = 90 TW
Conversion efficiency to oil = 1%
Energy density of crude oil = 30 GJ/m3
Volume of oil per sec = 90 × 1012 × 0.01/30 ×109 = 30 m3
Span of biological life = 3.7 billion years
Total oil = 3.7 × 109 × 365 × 24 × 3600 × 30 = 3.5 × 1018 m3
⇒ 0.3% of planet’s volume, or 2.6 times total water on planet
32. Extinction time for oil
T = (1/k) ln (1+ kR/P)
k = annual growth rate = 0.013
R = total oil = 3.5 × 1018 m3
P = annual consumption = 5 × 109 m3 (2009)
⇒ T= extinction time = 1200 years
33. The one minute before midnight effect
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128……..
34. Doubling time for oil
Oil annual growth rate = 1.3%
Doubling time ~ 100/1.3 = 77 years
35. Oil discovery
Source: Mikael Höök, Uppsala University
48. Costs
• $6 billion to build a 750 MW nuclear station
• Upto $6 billion to decommission
• Hidden costs
49. Accidents
“Three Mile Island taught Wall Street. . . [that] a $2 billion
asset can turn into a $1 billion cleanup job in about 90
minutes.”
Peter Bradford, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
50. Accident rate
• 70 reported incidents per year (NEA)
• Presently 440 commercial reactors world wide
• Need 15,000 run the world è Five incidents per day
• Partial or full core melt è One per month
52. Fast breeder reactors (FBRs)
• FBRs increase uranium lifetime by a factor of 60
• Total nuclear utility time = 60 × 80 = 4800 years
• By extracting uranium from seawater and using thorium
we can last for well over 10,000 years.
53. Uranium in seawater
• Total volume of seawater = 1.37 x 1018 m3
• Density of seawater = 1030 kg/m3
• Uranium content = 3.3 ppb
• Total uranium = 4.6 x 1012 kg
• Total U-235 = 3.2 x 1010 kg (0.7%)
• Energy density = 83.14 TJ/kg
• Total energy content = 2.7 x 1012 TJ
• Utility time = 5700 years (at 15 TW)
54. Total quantity versus rate
• With an FBR, 60 x 5700 300,000 years!
• But this is nonsense as rates have been ignored
55. Mass balance equation
dc
V = Fc
dt
• Results in a simple exponential
€
• But this is wrong because: F is not const., F ∝1/c
• So let us insert: F = k /c
€
€
56. Correct differential equation
dc
V = −k
dt
VFo
F=
V − FoT
€
• For 1 GW supply, Fo = 7.6 x 106 m3/sec
€ V
• Doomsday time, T=
Fo
= 5700 years (at 15 TW)
€
57. Total volume of ocean mined in time T
T
VTOT = ∫ 0
Fdt = −V ln(1− FoT /Vo )
€
Over 30 years, the accumulated volume to be processed
is 7 x 1015 m3 = 6 times the total river outflow in the
world in same time.
58. Moral of the story
What works at small scale doesn’t
always work at large scale!
59. What are nuclear power stations made of?
In addition to steel and concrete:
u Niobium
u Tantalum
u Beryllium
u Zirconium
u Lithium
u Yttrium
u Hafnium
u Vanadium
u Molybdenum
u etc….
71. But is solar energy really viable?
Quiz: the solar power that hits the planet is just enough to:
1. Power New York
2. Power Europe
3. Power half the planet
4. Power 10,000 of our planets.
72. Quiz answer
• The solar power that hits the planet = 174,000 TW
• Planet’s power consumption is = 15 TW
1. Power New York
2. Power Europe
3. Power half the planet
4. Power 10,000 of our planets þ
73. But how sun much makes it to the surface?
• 30% is reflected
• 19% is absorbed by clouds
Therefore 51% is available for collection.
So we still have enough to run 5000 planets.
74. Why isn’t “5000” shouted from the rooftops?
Obvious (noun): that which is never seen until
someone expresses it simply.
Khahlil Gibran
84. World activity
• Spain
• USA
• Egypt
• South Africa
• Australia
• Libya
• Israel
• Morocco
• Algeria
• Germany (laying cable from Aachen to Algeria)
85. Desertec proposal
A consortium of Deutsch Bank, Siemens and others, to
install a solar farm.
• Area: 400 km by 400 km
• Location: Sahara desert
• Investment: EUR 400 billion
• Supply: will connect to Europe by cable
86. Storage distribution
To supply the world, we need to:
• Store power
• Distribute it to other countries
• So need to convert it to a chemical fuel
88. Ammonia
• Electrolysis: N and H2
• Then supply whole world with liquid H2
• But where do we get all that ammonia from?
89. Water
• Electrolysis: O2 and H2
• Then supply whole world with liquid H2
• Plenty of water that is in a repeatable cycle
90. Advantages of hydrogen power
• Turns to water
• High energy to weight ratio
• Petrol engines can be retrofitted out
91. Concept Sun
Solar energy
Focused solar
collector dishes
Heat produced
Superheated stream to 600°C Thermal energy
Stream turbine
Mechanical energy
Electricity
Generator Stored water
Closed cycle
Electricity
Water produced
electrolysis
Electricity
Desalination plant Grid Hydrogen storage
Electrolysis Transmission
Liquefaction Hydrogen
Hydrogen production End consumer combustion
109. Bottom line
• Nuclear power has hidden costs
• Solar-hydrogen has hidden savings
110. Research needed
• Full economic trade-off analysis
• Research into electrolysis
• Research in platinum electrode alternatives
• Research in materials for H2 pipelines
• Combustion engines
• Analysis of cooling towers
111. Why is the low tech solution surprising?
• High-tech systems are ordered: entropy reduced
• Energy production: entropy increased
• Cannot put a high-tech system in a high entropy state
112. Solar thermal vs. solar cells
• Solar thermal: centralized base-load power
• Solar cells: distributed energy harvesting
113. Energy diversity
• Creates stability security
• Perhaps 70% from solar and 30% other sources
115. How to proceed?
1. Need govt incentives for insulation/energy saving
2. Govt funded research initiatives for solar-hydrogen
3. Establish 4 km by 4 km H2-solar farm
4. Convert trams/buses to H2
5. Need more hydrogen car initiatives
119. Bottom line #2
Source: Am. J. Phys., Vol. 49, No. 11, 1981, p. 1028.
120. Thomas Edison (1931)
“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy.
What a source of power! I hope we don’t have
to wait until oil and coal run out before we
tackle that.”
121. M. King Hubbert
“Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use
what we know.”
122. Sir Mark Oliphant
“Australia can get all the energy it wants from the
Simpson Desert, if only it gains the political courage to
do so.”
123. The End
Proceedings of the IEEE , Vol. 98, No. 1, 2010, pp. 42-66
The End
dabbott@eleceng.adelaide.edu.au