HT maize: ex-ante study in Europe

1. JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 1
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
HT maize:
ex-ante study in Europe
Emilio Rodríguez-Cerezo, Francisco Areal & Laura Riesgo
IPTS - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Seville - Spain
http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

2. Introduction
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Global area of HT maize (1996-2008)
8
7
6
5
Million hectares
4
3
2
1
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: James (1997-2009)

3. Introduction
JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 3
Countries growing HT maize (2008)
<0.1%
5% 2% 2%1%
<0.1%
90%
USA Canada South Africa Argentina Philippines Honduras Chile
Source: James (2009)

4. Introduction
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Possible economic impacts of HT maize:
- Facilitate adoption of no-tillage systems (cost savings:
reduced labour, fuel costs associating with plowing)
- Greater management flexibility: ease of use, broad-spectrum
herbicides and longer time window for spraying

5. Introduction
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2 GM crops authorised in the EU (Bt maize, Amflora potato)
Mandatory coexistence measures in the EU
EU GM farmers have to implement specific segregation
measures

6. Objective
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Analysing factors affecting the ex ante adoption of GM crops
Focusing on HT oilseed rape and HT maize
Effect of coexistence measures on adoption

7. Survey
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Questionnaire to EU farmers
(Mar-Jul, 2007):
HT OSR
Czech Republic: 200
Germany: 208
UK: 200
TOTAL: 608
HT maize The low response rate for some of the
France: 101 questions included in the analysis
Hungary: 100 reduced the number of valid observations
Spain: 104
HT OSR: 426 farms
TOTAL: 305 HT maize: 280 farms

8. Questionnaire structure
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Four sections:
1) Select those farmers that were cropping OSR or maize in 2006
2) Farm characteristics: farm size, hired workers, and machinery
3) Farm management: variety of seeds, use of herbicides and
pesticides, price and production, and WTAd questions
4) Socio-demographic data

9. Willingness to Adopt
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Farmers were asked whether they would grow HT OSR/HT maize.
Respondents could choose amongst 5 ordered alternatives:
a) It's very unlikely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize)
b) It's somewhat unlikely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize)
c) It's uncertain I would change to HT OSR (HT maize)
d) It's likely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize)
e) It's very likely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize).
An ordered probit model was used to estimate the probability of
adoption

10. Willingness to Adopt
JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 10
Ex-ante adoption for HT OSR
Czech
Republic Germany UK
Very unlikely 0.15 0.06 0.10
0.34 0.18 0.26
Somewhat unlikely 0.19 0.12 0.16
Uncertain 0.29 0.25 0.28
Likely 0.31 0.42 0.36
0.37 0.57 0.46
Very likely 0.06 0.15 0.10

11. Conceptual Framework
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Ex-ante adoption for HT maize
France Hungary Spain
Very unlikely 0.12 0.15 0.07
0.35 0.41 0.25
Somewhat unlikely 0.23 0.26 0.18
Uncertain 0.36 0.35 0.36
Likely 0.24 0.21 0.31
0.29 0.24 0.39
Very likely 0.05 0.03 0.08

12. Explanatory variables
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Farmers evaluated a number of reasons:
Economic reasons (Economic):
- 'It guarantees the reduction of losses caused by weed growth‘
- 'It guarantees higher income‘
- 'It reduces weed control costs‘
Environmental impact reduction (Environment):
- 'the environmental impact on my farm is reduced because it involves a
cut down in herbicides‘
Facilitation of work (Ease):
- 'It facilitates my work being a technology that makes cultivation easier'

13. Explanatory variables
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Administrative measures (Administra):
- 'the plot must be identified in a public register'
- 'the neighbouring farmers must be notified‘
- 'if the land is rented, the owner has to be notified‘
- 'it must under public registration for 5 years'
Cleaning and segregation of harvest & transport (Technical):
- ‘the combine harvester must be thoroughly cleaned both before and after
harvesting’
- ‘the compulsory of separate harvesting and transportation’
Insurance policy (Insurance):
- 'an insurance policy to cover claims for neighbours‘
Separation distance (Separation):
- ‘the distance over which I would stop growing HT OSR/Ht maize is …‘

14. Explanatory variables
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Disbelief in GM technology (Disbelief):
- 'I do not think there would be an improvement in yield‘
-'I do not think there would be an improvement in financial returns‘
- 'I do not belief in these new products‘
- ‘I prefer not to change the type of crop. I do not really like change‘
- 'I have been advised not to use this type of rape‘
- 'I think it would be difficult to market the grain‘
- ‘It will not be well received by society in general’

15. Explanatory variables
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Age
High education level (Education)
Farm size (Size)
Income
Germany (GE)
Czech Republic (CZ)
United Kingdom (UK)
Spain (SP)
France (FR)
Hungary (HU)

16. Explanatory variables
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Summary statistics of explanatory variables
HT OSR HT maize
Explanatory variable Mean SD Mean SD
ECONOMIC 0.76 0.41 0.84 0.36
ENVIRONMENT 0.60 0.48 0.69 0.46
EASE 0.83 0.38 0.85 0.36
DISBELIEF 0.35 0.48 0.16 0.36
ADMINISTRA 0.03 0.18 0.01 0.11
TECHNICAL 0.32 0.46 0.29 0.16
SEPARATION 0.54 0.35 0.41 0.49
INSURANCE 0.70 0.47 0.62 0.49
AGE 47.69 11.29 47.61 11.13
EDUCATION 0.42 0.49 0.43 0.50
SIZE 850.79 950.48 269.50 617.28
INCOME 0.25 0.44 0.06 0.50
GE 0.48 0.48 - -
CZ 0.29 0.46 - -
FR - - 0.33 0.47
SP - - 0.35 0.47

17. Results Ordered probit for HT OSR and
HT maize - WTAd -
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HT OSR HT maize
Explanatory variable Coefficient z-statistic Coefficient z-statistic
Constant 1.159*** 3.43 1.133*** 2.62
ECONOMIC 0.560*** 4.10 0.283 1.34
ENVIRONMENT 0.347*** 2.98 0.175 1.06
EASE 0.674*** 4.37 0.459** 2.17
DISBELIEF -0.385*** -3.22 -1.441*** -6.16
ADMINISTRA -0.466 -1.61 -1.303 -1.56
TECHNICAL -0.601*** -4.68 -0.698*** -3.92
SEPARATION -0.211** -1.92 -0.360** -2.45
INSURANCE -0.258** -2.13 -0.344** -2.28
AGE -0.009* -1.93 -0.002 -0.29
EDUCATION 0.261** 2.19 0.167 0.99
SIZE 0.000 -0.61 0.000 0.22
INCOME -0.252** -2.06 -0.442 -1.48
GE 0.284** 1.97 - -
CZ -0.231 -1.39 - -
FR - - 0.164 0.85
SP - - 0.424** 2.14
Cut-off parameters
Cut-off_2 0.63*** 10.52 0.81*** 10.15
Cut-off_3 1.37*** 21.46 1.76*** 20.82
Cut-off_4 2.57*** 29.18 2.86*** 25.13
Log –likelihood -574.88 -366.10
Likelihood Ratio test 165.69*** 138.83***
Pseudo R-squared 0.13 0.16
N 426 280

18. Conclusions
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Positive factors:
- HT OSR: Economic, environmental issues, ease of use.
Socio-demographic variables (Age, education, income)
- HT maize: Ease of use
Negative factors:
HT OSR & HT maize: Coexistence measures, disbelief
Country differences:
- HT OSR: GE** > UK > CZ
- HT maize: SP** > FR > HU

19. Conclusions
JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 19
Decision on HT adoption in the EU is shaped by the
implementation of coexistence measures:
Technical measures have large effect on the probability of
adopting
25-metre distance and insurance cover lesser impact on
farmers' WTAd HT crops

20. Future research
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Impacts on inputs use
GM adoption in the EU:
- Effect of coexistence measures
- Effect of efficiency on GM adoption
Consumer behaviour on GM products

21. JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 21
Baseline Herbicide use for maize
Number of herbicide treatments Expenses on herbicides (€/ha)
EU EU
Obs= 304; Mean= 1.46; Median= 1; SD= 0.52 Obs= 279; Mean= 47.77; Median= 45; SD= 31.98
25
80
24.1%
20.5%
20
60
54.6 %
14.8%
Percentage
15
Percentage
44.4 %
40
11.5%
10
6.8% 6.5%
20
5.4%
5
3.2%
1.0 % 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4%
0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
0
0
0 1 2 3 4
No. of herbicides treatments 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Expenses on herbicides (€/ha)

22. JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 22
Thank you for your attention!