Overview of mobile software development from 2008 to 2011. Presentation given at "Mobile Software Development - 3 years later" event on 04.04.11 in Tallinn (http://www.momoestonia.com/2011/04/thank-you-for-great-event-mobile.html) and with this updated version at "Mobile Software Development" event on 23.05.11 in Vilnius (http://mobiluspirmadienis.lt/events/detailed/30).

1. Mobile Software Development from 2008 to 2011 Sven Kirsimäe sven@momoestonia.com

2. About me Head of Mobile Development at Reach-U/Regio Maps and LBS provider in Baltics Reaching ~200 000 000 mobile clients WW http://reach-u.com/ Mobile SW dev at Playtech 2005-2009 Mobile games for 600+ JME models Co-Founder of Mobile Monday Estonia http://www.momoestonia.com Sven Kirsimäe

3. The Renaissance period 2005-2009 The final acts

4. Smartphones 2008 (admob) Sven Kirsimäe

5. Smartphones 2008 (admob) Sven Kirsimäe

6. Smartphone OS 2008 (admob) Sven Kirsimäe

7. Smartphone OS 2008 (admob) Sven Kirsimäe

8. Market state 2008 highlights India & Africa: 80+% Nokia (Symbian) SonyEricsson & Samsung follow the lead Mostly low-end non-smartphone devices Smartphone traffic ~25% WW iPhone traffic ~25% from smartphones WW Mobile OS WW share changes iOS +30% Symbian -20% RIM, Win Mobile, Palm -10% Sven Kirsimäe

9. The challenges 2008 and ... Heavy fragmentation and learning-curve still present J2ME, Symbian iOSseems to be pushing hard The best app distribution-model seen so far Will it hold?Others? Android platform is looking „geeky“ promising will it becom popular? Apps, apps, apps, apps, apps... mobile web will die out? Distribution channels Operators: US OEMs emerging:Nokia OVI, Apple, RIM Private: GetJar, Handago Operators opening up? traffic vs. service Open-sourcing OSes Android Symbian Value in mobile SW development is „gettin’ serious“ Sven Kirsimäe

10. The Industrial Revolution era 2010-1014 The first act

11. Smartphones 2008-2011 Sven Kirsimäe

12. Smartphone OS 2008-2011 Sven Kirsimäe

13. Smarphone usage breakdown Sven Kirsimäe

14. Looking back at 2010 (US/EU5/WW) Media hypes(Apple-syndrome) ~84% smarts don’t have one! This makes ~96% WW subs! 80% feature-phones shipped in 2010 WW! ~6 billion mobile subs WW Attractive for J2ME/S40/S60(?) China / India moving in fast The largest markets in the world ZTE, Huawei establishing in WE China ~800m ; India ~600m 300m new subscribers in 2010 +30% points on app downloads Mobile media usage US 47% of subscribers: +8%/y EU5 37% of subscribers: +7%/y (Japan ~75% of subscribers) Main reasons 3G and Unlimited dataplans ~30% US; ~10% EU5 Smartphone adoption of full web browsing devices ~50% US (+46%); ~61% EU5 (+28%) ~90% are Internet-ready phones Touchscreen smartphones dominate WW ~60% Keyboard: ~27% Sven Kirsimäe

15. Dev platforms used till 2011

16. Disparitybetween devices and applications One would expect that the platforms deployed on thelargestnumber of devices would have the biggest number of applications.

17. The challenges 2011 and ... New formfactors already ~40 tablets on the market SIM-enabled e-bookreaders, PCs, ... Always connected devices Mobile Cloud / Role of operators 3G network overload – will LTE/4G save us? Developer bias Developers mindshare migration between the platforms Learning-curve and efficiency Platformconcurrency War-of-giants and markets Apple and/or Android? Open vsclosed Google restricting Android customizations Nokia/Windows and/or HParesleeping dragons? Marketingchannels Platform penetration matters Mobile apps bubble (?) Discovery bottleneck Fragmented mobile web Vertical ecosystems prevail (?) Sven Kirsimäe

18. At the same time in Estonia Skype releases disruptive mobile client J2ME, iPhone and Android Some small local players become big LTE/4G reaches Estonia 2011 EMT 4G, expensive, 2015 releases some additional MHz E-Voting 2007 -> 2011: 5.5% -> 24.3% Mobile-ID: 2011 -> ~2% Mobile Monday Estonia is still rockin’!  Sven Kirsimäe

19. Thank You! Sven Kirsimäe sven@kirsimae.com