1. Distributed Collective Decision Making: From Ballot to Market Marko A. Rodriguez (1) Jennifer H. Watkins (2) (1) Digital Library Research & Prototyping Team (2) Socio-Political Dynamics Team Los Alamos National Laboratory (1) [email_address] (2) [email_address] http://cdms.lanl.gov Discovery Workshop: Applying Complexity Science to Organizational Design and Multistakeholder Systems

2. Overview Collective Decision Making Systems Dynamically Distributed Democracy Prediction Markets Conclusion

3. Overview Collective Decision Making Systems Dynamically Distributed Democracy Prediction Markets Conclusion

6. Taxonomy of Collective Decision Making Systems

7. Overview Collective Decision Making Systems Dynamically Distributed Democracy Prediction Markets Conclusion

11. Dynamically Distributed Democracy. 1 1 1 1

12. Dynamically Distributed Democracy. 1.75 1.25 1

13. Dynamically Distributed Democracy. 2.5 1.5

18. Overview Collective Decision Making Systems Dynamically Distributed Democracy Prediction Markets Conclusion

21. A Prediction Market. Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 Bids Asks Y = $null N = $null $0.00 “ Will X happen? Y es or N o.”

22. A Prediction Market. Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N Y N $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 Bids Asks Y = $0.50 N = $0.50 $3.00

23. A Prediction Market. Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N Y N $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 Bids Asks Y = $0.50 N = $0.50 $3.00 Human A: “Buying Y for $0.60” Human B: “Buying Y for $0.70”

24. A Prediction Market. Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N Y N $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 Bids Asks Y = $0.50 N = $0.50 $3.00 Human A: “Buying Y for $0.60” Human B: “Buying Y for $0.70” Human C: “Selling Y for $0.70”

25. A Prediction Market. Y Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N N $1.00 $0.30 $1.70 Bids Asks Y = $0.70 N = $0.50 $3.00 Human A: “Buying Y for $0.60”

26. A Prediction Market. Y Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N N $1.00 $0.30 $1.70 Bids Asks Y = $0.58 N = $0.42 $3.00 Human A: “Buying Y for $0.60”

27. A Prediction Market. Y Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N N $1.00 $0.30 $1.70 Bids Asks Y = $0.58 N = $0.42 $3.00 Human A: “Buying Y for $0.90” Human C: “Buying N for $0.45”

28. A Prediction Market. Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N $1.00 $0.30 $1.70 Bids Asks Y = $0.58 N = $0.42 $3.00 Human A: “Buying Y for $0.90” Human C: “Buying N for $0.45” Y Human B: “Selling Y for $0.90” N Human B: “Selling N for $0.45”

29. A Prediction Market. Y N Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N $0.10 $1.65 $1.25 Bids Asks Y = $0.90 N = $0.45 $3.00

30. A Prediction Market. Y N Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N $0.10 $1.65 $1.25 Bids Asks Y = $0.66 N = $0.33 $3.00

31. A Prediction Market. Y N Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% Y N Y N $0.10 $1.65 $1.25 Bids Asks Y = $0.66 N = $0.33 $3.00

32. A Prediction Market. N Human A Y = 100% N = 0% Human B Y = 70% N = 30% Human C Y = 45% N = 55% N N $2.10 $2.65 $1.25 Bids Asks Y = $0.66 N = $0.33 $0.00

34. Overview Collective Decision Making Systems Dynamically Distributed Democracy Prediction Markets Conclusion

36. Questions? http:// c d m s .lanl.gov [email_address] [email_address]