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      06.19.12  www.bloombergbriefs.com	                                                         Bloomberg Brief | Hedge Funds                   12



    Spotlight
    QuantZ Capital’s Milind Sharma on Applying a ‘Macro Overlay’ to Quantitative Investing
                                                       a slow, gradual thing?                            in the higher order effects, namely what
    Milind Sharma, CEO of New York-based               A: We’re really betting on the second             does that do to vol and dispersion and
    QuantZ Capital Management Ltd., spoke              order effects. Regardless of whether you          stock correlation and all those things.
    to Bloomberg’s Nathaniel Baker about his           have the big event or not, it’s going to be       The macro stuff translates directly into
    views on the global macro picture and how                                                            the fact that in the last couple of years
                                                       a big unwind because there’s no ways to
    these are incorporated into his hedge fund’s                                                         you’ve seen record high stock correla-
    strategy.                                          get rid of the debt instantaneously. The
                                                       real issue near term is whether Angela            tion. That makes it very difficult for a
                                                       Merkel and Europe can take a page                 fundamental, bottom-up stock picker to
    Q: Your fund was in the top 3 percent in           out of our history book from Alexander            outperform. The other issue is that when
    the Bloomberg database last year and               Hamilton’s experience and apply it to Eu-         you’re in a sideways to downward bear
    recently won the Battle of the Quants.             rope. Even if they do, it’s difficult to see      market, the typical long/short process
    What’s the strategy, exactly?                      how the world can magically heal itself.          doesn’t work well. Because most long/
                                                       Because we’re still looking at a potential        short funds are essentially levered beta
    A: We’re ‘quantamental,’ which means
                                                       hard-landing scenario in China, India’s           riders. They see a rally, they load up and
    a hybrid of quantitative-driven on the
                                                       not in great shape with inflation, the            jump on. Not to mention that with the
    securities selection side with some macro
                                                       Japanese have plenty of their own debt            pressure on expert networks and Reg
    adjustment/macro overlay, if you will.
                                                       to worry about and are only 23 years into         FD it’s gotten much harder for many of
                                                       their bear market, and we’re 13 years into        these managers to do what they used
    Q: Quantamental. I like that. How does
                                                       ours. We see the ‘lost decade’ in stocks          to do. Plus, with the relative volume in
    the macro overlay work?
                                                       – not the one that just happened, but             ETFs rising dramatically, you’ve got an
    A: It’s taking our house view and                                                                    environment where a process-driven
                                                       the one that’s likely to come – to act like
    combining it with a regime-switching ap-                                                             strategy can tweak the right levers to
                                                       a dampened oscillator. This means that
    proach. Basically forecasting probabili-                                                             take advantage of these issues.
                                                       each successive episode of quantitative
    ties, which then drive the portfolio tilt
                                                       easing will be less and less effective. As
    and overall portfolio orientation. There’s                                                           Q: Isn’t there a lot of upwards/down-
                                                       an example, this is the third year in a row
    a lot of moving parts.                                                                               wards/sideways movement as we go
                                                       that we’ve seen a very serious déjà-vu
                                                       script playing out; you get a very strong         along here?
    Q: So what are your macro views then?
                                                       first quarter, market peaks in April or           A: Exactly. In general, one should expect
    A: We sound like a broken record in                May, then you get a summer swoon. For             much higher volatility and correlation in
    terms of our perma-bearish outlook but             the third year in a row we’ve been justi-         these bear market cycles. That’s some-
    that’s because frankly we see either a             fied in being cautious that once the sugar        thing a quant process can take advantage
    ‘checkmate’ or a ‘stalemate.’ We don’t             high of quantitative easing wears off, the        of. We for instance are always implicitly
    see any great scenarios that can come              same script plays out. What I’m saying is         long vol/long dispersion. But we can
    out of this massive deleveraging cycle.            that at some point you’re going to have           choose to be long correlation/short cor-
    We’re in the camp of this being a great            an episode of QE perceived not as a               relation by tweaking our ratio bets on
    stagnation/deflationary bust or secular            license to melt up, but as sheer despera-         idiosyncratic versus common factor risk.
    bear market.                                       tion on part of the Fed.
                                                                                                         Q: I think you just lost me.
    Q: What are your big concerns? It                  Q: How are these views translated into            A: It’s very difficult for fundamental man-
    sounds like this goes beyond Greece                your strategy exactly? How does that              agers to even measure their idiosyncratic
    and European sovereign debt?                       mechanism work?                                   versus common factor levels, much less
    A: That’s right. All of the above plus of          A: As I mentioned we’re more interested           take advantage of that.
    course the domestic issues: your fiscal
    cliff, the $46 trillion of unfunded liabilities,
    trying to solve the debt overhang with
    more debt and the possibility of a disor-
                                                                          Age: 40
    derly default or disorderly decline in one
    of the major reserve currencies. At the                               College/University/Grad School(s): Oxford, Vassar, Carnegie Mellon, Wharton
    end of the day, we believe that enough                                Professional Background: MLIM, ran proprietary stat arb portfolios at RBC
    cans have been kicked down enough
    roads in enough countries that some-                                  and Deutsche Bank AG, the latter under Boaz Weinstein.
    thing’s got to give at some point soon.                               Mentors: Boaz Weinstein; Bob Doll, vice chairman of BlackRock.

    Q: Will this be a big event or more like                              Charitable Work: Ti Kay Haiti (www.tikayhaiti.org)



                                                    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 
“QuantZ - Winner of the Best Quant fund award at the Battle of the Quants 2012” 




                                                                         
FINalternatives
Published on FINalternatives (http://www.finalternatives.com)

QuantZ Adds 3.9% In Oct., Up 16.45% YTD
Nov 10 2011 | 9:58am ET

QuantZ Capital Management hasn’t lost a step this year as it pushes towards 2012 up by
double-digits.

While many of its peers have suffered some nauseating ups-and-downs over the past
several months, QuantZ's Quark Equity Market Neutral Fund has been a paragon of
consistency, rising 2.46% in August, 2.5% in September and 3.91% in October, leaving
the fund up 16.45% on the year.

"We have reason to believe that, regardless of any year-end seasonal relief rallies, most
traditional and hedge fund strategies are likely to disappoint in the decade to come,"
QuantZ wrote, citing continuing troubles in Europe and the U.S. deadlock on deficit
reduction. And, citing several recent studies showing that women make better risk
managers, the firm unveiled a new motto, of sorts: "No cowboy acts. Trade like a girl."

QuantZ has had only two down months all year, January and July.


Source URL:
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/18704
FINalternatives
Published on FINalternatives (http://www.finalternatives.com)


JAT, Citadel, QuantZ Among Top Hedge Funds In '11
Oct 5 2011 | 1:05pm ET

A pair of prominent hedge funds are among the best-performers of the year with just three
months to go in 2011.

JAT Capital Management and Citadel Invest Group are both up by double-digits this year,
according to published reports. The former may be the best of all, having returned 37.4% through
Sept. 23.

JAT, which has recently closed its fund to new investors, was up 1.8% with a week to go in
September.

Citadel had more modest monthly and year-to-date returns, but impressive nonetheless. The
Chicago hedge fund giant's flagship Kensington and Wellington funds rose 0.25% last month,
buoyed by their global equities strategy, which rose 2.35% on the month. The two funds are now
up 15.1% on the year, Institutional Investor reports.

Also up double-digits this year is QuantZ Capital Management's Quark Equity Market Neutral
Fund, which rose 2.5% in September and is up 11.85%.

Others were not so lucky: Greenlight Capital added 0.2% on the month. But neither that gain—
nor the fact that Greenlight was up, marginally, in the third quarter—can distract from the firm's
5.1% year-to-date loss.


Source URL:
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/18293
Goldman to Close Global Alpha Fund After
Losses
GOLDMAN SACHS FUNDS STOCK MARKETS EQUITIES FINANCIAL CRISIS RECESSION
SAFE HAVENS INVESTORS BANKING
CNBC.com
| 16 Sep 2011 | 03:21 AM ET

Goldman Sachs Group is shuttering a well-known hedge fund that relies on computer-driven trading strategies
after the portfolio rang up a hefty loss this year.

Goldman told investors in the roughly $1.6 billion Global Alpha fund the news on Thursday, one day after it
announced a management shake-up at the fund that had been the crown jewel of its quantitative trading
business.

The fund will be closed in the next few weeks.

Global Alpha had tumbled 13 percent by early September, delivering a far worse performance than other
hedge funds that rely on computer programs to quickly take advantage of opportunities in the market, people
familiar with the number said.

These types of funds are supposed to move quickly in and out of stocks, bonds, currencies and other assets
and exit positions before losses accrue.

This is the second time in four years the Global Alpha fund — once one of Goldman's biggest with $12
billion in assets — has suffered big losses and its performance raises questions about the ability of Goldman
Sachs to manage quantitative strategies for its wealthy clients.

In fact, people familiar with Goldman Sachs have said the company's decision to liquidate Global Alpha
signals its decision to exit quantitative hedge fund strategies altogether.

The firm still manages billions in quantitative mutual funds. Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

Even though Goldman's Global Alpha fund is in the red, most other other quantitative hedge funds are up or
are flat for the year.

The average quant fund is down less than 1 percent over that period, according to performance tracking
service Hedge Fund Research Inc.

Mark Carhart, the man who managed the Global Alpha fund with Raymond Iwanowski for more than a
decade until 2009, has gained 7 percent net of fees this year at his new hedge fund Kepos Capital, a person
familiar with his numbers said.
The new turmoil at Global Alpha comes almost four years to the day after the fund lost 22.5 percent in
August 2007, during the early days of the financial crisis.

Those losses prompted investors to pull money out.

Even though the fund's performance steadied with a 4 percent gain in 2008 and raced ahead with a 30 percent
increase in 2009, assets never recovered.

By the time Carhart and Iwanowski left in 2009, the fund had shrunk to $4 billion from its $12 billion peak.

Soon after the pair retired, assets shriveled further to about $2 billion. The fund neither gained nor lost money
last year, delivering a zero return. The quantitative group has been beset by departures for some time.

More than two dozen left this year alone, people familiar with the numbers said.

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs Asset Management sent a letter to Global Alpha investors notifying them
that Katinka Domotorffy, the head of the group's quantitative investment strategies, would retire at year's end.

The letter, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, did not discuss the poor performance of the Global
Alpha fund.

Deja Vu Again

What may have hit the Goldman fund especially hard were the unexpected stock market sell offs in early
August and recent currency market fluctuations in the wake of the Swiss National Bank's decision to halt the
rise of the Swiss franc, people familiar with the fund's models said.

Andrew Schneider, president and CEO of Global Hedge Fund Advisors, said the first half of September has
been brutal for some large hedge funds, due to unpredictable moves in market direction.

"The volatility has been so high; if you're wrong, especially if you're using margin or leverage, your returns
are going to be extremely poor," said Schneider.

Other quantitative hedge funds, however, fared better.

James Simons' Renaissance Technologies' Renaissance Institutional Equities fund has gained more than 25
percent this year, said a person familiar with the fund run by the math professor turned hedge fund manager.

Another quant fund, QuantZ Capital Management, for instance, is up 12.8 percent through Sept. 6, according
to a letter sent to investors.

© 2011 CNBC.com

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44545789/
  0.25.11  	
 1                                                                                            hedge funds | Bloomberg Brief	                                                                       2



Returns in Brief
■■ Fortress Investment Group LLC’s Commodities Fund LP was down 5 basis points                          Hedge Fund Returns
in September, according to a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg. “Gains were                     Bloomberg BAIF indices, which represent all funds
made primarily in short metals and energy positions, offset by losses incurred in our                   tracked by Bloomberg data, are the source of the
long gold and corn positions,” William Callanan, the fund’s chief investment officer,                   below hedge fund and fund of funds data.
wrote in the letter.                                                                                        Hedge Funds           Funds of Funds            S&P 500          2-Year Treasuries
                                                                                                                                                                         (Merrill Lynch Total Return Index)
                                                                                                                                                         15.06%


■■ Tiburon Holdings LLC, the New York-based event-driven fund that has $50 mil-
lion in assets, has gained 4 percent this year, according to a person familiar with the                     8.18%
matter. The fund is run by Peter Lupoff, a former portfolio manager at Millennium
Partners LP. Tiburon started in November 2009.                                                                                    3.90%*
                                                                                                                                                                               2.47%
                                                                                                                                                                                             1.36%
■■ MAST Capital Management LLC’s Credit Opportunities I fund returned 1.7 per-                                                                                  -8.68%
                                                                                                                      -0.89%                  -1.03%
cent in September, its fifth straight month of positive returns, to bring year-to-date                              2010 total returns
performance to 6.64 percent, according to a letter to investors that was obtained by                                2011 YTD total returns
Bloomberg. Gains in the fund’s long CDS book, “as well as both special situation                                                   *from Feb. 26, 2010

single name bond and equity shorts,” drove gains, the letter said. The fund is man-
aged by David Steinberg.
                                                                                                         Bloomberg Brief Hedge Funds
■■ QuantZ Capital Management’s Quark Equity Market Neutral Fund gained 4.7 per-
                                                                                                         	      Newsletter	 Ted Merz
cent through Oct. 17, bringing year-to-date returns to 17 percent, according to a letter                 	 Executive Editor	 tmerz@bloomberg.net
to investors, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg. The New York-based fund is                      		 212-617-2309
managed by Milind Sharma.                                                                                	Bloomberg News	 Rob Urban
                                                        —Compiled by Kelly Bit and Nathaniel E. Baker    	 Managing Editor	 robprag@bloomberg.net
                                                                                                         		 212-617-5192
                                                                                                         	 Hedge Funds	 Nathaniel E. Baker
For this week’s Performance Snapshot, featuring distressed hedge funds, see page 10.                     	      Editors	 nbaker14@bloomberg.net
                                                                                                         		 212-617-2741
returns by strategy                                                                                      		 Melissa Karsh
                                                                                                         		 mkarsh@bloomberg.net
 Strategy                                   2010         September 2011        2011 year-to-date         		 212-617-4557
                                                                                                         	 Reporter	 Kelly Bit
 Mortgage-Backed Arbitrage                   24.6              -0.2                    13.0              		 kbit@bloomberg.net
                                                                                                         		 212-617-1097
 Equity Statistical Arbitrage                 3.4               0.6                     7.3
                                                                                                         	 Contributing	 Katherine Burton
 Fixed Income Arbitrage                       3.7               0.6                     3.7              	   Reporters	 kburton@bloomberg.net 		
                                                                                                         		 212-617-2335
 Short-Biased Equities                        7.2               3.2                     3.4              		 Saijel Kishan
                                                                                                         		 skishan@bloomberg.net 		
 Emerging Market Debt                        13.3              -1.1                     2.8              		 212-617-6662
                                                                                                         	 Contributing	 Matthew Kelly
 Capital Structure Arbitrage                  2.1              -1.3                     2.8              	 Data Editors	 mkelly17@bloomberg.net
                                                                                                         		 609-279-5064
 Directional Fixed-Income                     5.3              -0.4                     2.7              		 Anibal Arrascue
                                                                                                         		 aarrascue@bloomberg.net
 Convertible Arbitrage                        2.7              -0.2                     2.5              		 609-279-5084

 Market-Neutral                               5.5              -1.7                     2.0              	       Newsletter	 Nick Ferris
                                                                                                         	Business Manager	 nferris2@bloomberg.net
                                                                                                         		 212-617-6975
 Multi-Strategy                               4.0              -0.8                     1.9
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 Long/Short Equities                          5.8              -3.4                     1.8              		 212-617-6975
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 Long-Biased Equities                         5.3              -3.5                    -6.1              forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent
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Type HFND<GO> to view return statistics




                                            1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15 
Esma Gregor

Subject:                 FW: MathFinance Newsletter w photo



                              you cannot view this newsletter please click here




                        Newsletter | 15 Nov 2011 | Issue 263
       In this issue       Editorial
                                Interview with Milind Sharma, CEO, QuantZ Capital
    § Editorial                 Management

    § Company News                  Mr. Sharma is Chief Executive Officer, QuantZ Capital Management. He
                                    ran the LTMN desk in Global Arbitrage & Trading at RBC where he
                                    served as Portfolio Manager for Quant EMN. In his capacity as Director
    § News                          & Senior Proprietary Trader at Deutsche, he managed Quant EMN
                                    portfolios of significant size & contributed to the broader prop
                                    mandate in Cap Structure Arb & with LBOs. Prior to that he was co-
    § Upcoming Events               founder of Quant Strategies (previously R&P) at BlackRock (MLIM).
                                    Prior to MLIM, he was Manager of the Risk Analytics and Research
                                    Group at Ernst & Young LLP where he was co-architect of Raven (one
    § Career
                                    of the earliest derivatives pricing/ validation engines) & co-created
                                    the 1st model for pricing cross-currency puttable Bermudan swaptions.
    § Resources                     Amongst the first to receive a degree in Financial Engineering from the
                                    pioneering MSCF program at Tepper (Carnegie Mellon), Mr. Sharma has
                                    a dual MS in Applied Math from CMU where he was also in the PhD
                                    program. His publications have appeared in the Journal of Investment
                                    Management, Risk, Wiley, HedgeQuest, World Scientific, Elsevier etc.
                                    and he is a frequent speaker at conferences.



                               Milind, you are an experienced fund manager with a quantitative
                             background, where do you see the current trends in the investment
                             industry in NY?

                             Clearly the investment industry is witnessing a radically new paradigm driven
                             by tectonic shifts which need to be acknowledged first before they can be
                             effectively dealt with:

                                    1.De-bunking the “stocks for the long run” thesis & its “buy &
                                       hold” corollary which have turned out to be disastrous in recent
                                       years is critical in light of the fact that the S&P500 has gone
                                       nowhere fast for some 13 years now. For perspective, it took 25
                                       years for the S&P to reclaim the Sept 1929 highs. Japan aside,
                                       there are a number of countries where Beta one i.e. long only
                                       investing has been a fool’s game. Given the post-WWII period of
                                       prosperity (of which the US was the prime beneficiary), this
                                       inductive fallacy tantamount to stocks having the God given birth-
                                       right to go up in the long run became the accepted wisdom. Even
                                       after a lost decade & faced with potentially another lost decade
                                                     1
in Equities the investment industry remains utterly paralyzed in
   terms of dealing with the grim new reality. The simple reason for
   this seemingly inexplicable paralysis is that the vast majority of
   professional investors, allocators & retail individuals grew up
   wired inherently “long biased”. Shorting stocks/ hedging is rather
   more difficult & requires much greater quantitative wherewithal
   than most participants of the eco-system have had at their
   disposal, not to mention that it pre-supposes a re-wiring of the
   industry mind-space.
2.Alpha vs. Beta & closet Levered Long Beta riders: Coming out of
    denial about the fallibility of “stocks for the long run” thesis
    allows us to abandon the Beta one default position with respect to
    various asset classes. The housing market collapse of recent years
    has shown that even the American dream of home ownership was
    not immune to the forces of financial gravity. Inflation adjusted
    Real Estate has in fact been a lousy long term investment in the
    developed world contrary to popular misconceptions. The
    archetypal “hedge” fund of Alfred Jones was supposed to be
    “hedged”. Sadly, most long-short Equity managers fail miserably
    in Bear markets because of their inability to monetize alpha on
    the short side since most are far from hedged. The data shows
    that LS Equity HF managers are mostly “closet” Long-biased Beta
    chasers (analogous to their “closet” index hugging Mutual Fund
    brethren) who tend to lever up long when they sense a rally
    coming. Given the scant evidence in support of market timing
    prowess, it appears that many fundamental managers have simply
    granted themselves the license to gamble. This often results in
    stomach-churning drawdowns which cannot be justified based on
    any sensible risk framework. Needless to say, when the VIX
    remains elevated for a period of time (2008 & 2011 to wit) with
    sideways to downwards churn, this approach fails. Allocators can
    choose to be more discerning & refuse to pay 2 & 20 for mere
    Beta access (which should only cost 5 to 10 bps given the
    availability of index ETFs). After all, even cab drivers have great
    stock tips to offer during raging bull markets. It is only when the
    tide goes out that we get to know who is swimming naked.
3.Regulatory hurdles to putative fundamental alpha: By now we all
   know that US regulators have done a mighty fine job of
   prosecuting the insider trading cabals of Galleon & SAC alumni.
   More important for investors to take note of is the prosecution of
   expert networks & the fundamental Long-Short clientele who
   were heavily reliant upon such “expertise”. Noah Freeman’s (SAC
   alum) damning testimony regarding the use of expert networks
   should put a chill on supposedly standard industry practices
   amongst fundamental managers. In light of that, one can’t help
   but notice the interestingly coincidental timing of SAC’s Quant
   fund launch. The better known fundamental stock pickers now
   aspire to be Quants? The changing landscape for fundamental
   Long-Short based on recent developments is reminiscent of what
   transpired post Reg-FD which brought an end to the incestuous
   peddling of information between management & the Street.
4.High Frequency Trading: HFT & the onslaught of algorithmic
   trading has dramatically reshaped the equity landscape. The
   manifold compression of bid/ ask spreads, reduction of
   commissions almost to zero & increased liquidity are all

              2
unadulterated positives for both the retail & institutional investor
         alike & have greatly enhanced market efficiency. Alas, the media
         spin on these remarkably positive developments has been
         remarkably negative for the simple reason that most of the
         talking heads on TV are the old timers who either don’t get it, are
         too innumerate to get it or belong to the disgruntled masses dis-
         intermediated by the onslaught of algorithmic trading. Let’s not
         forget that the much revered “specialist” in the old system in fact
         turned out to be the ultimate frontrunner (by virtue of being the
         human backstop with access to the order book). Despite the
         indictment & successful conviction of NYSE specialist firms, we
         continue to hear buyside managers reminisce blissfully as to how
         great the old system was (back when they paid obscenely large
         commissions as opposed to the putative evils of HFT). Alas, the
         industry remains woefully in denial about the paradigm shifts in
         the making.




   How important are Quants and who uses quantitative models? Do we
still need quants in the financial industry?

In the 15+ years since Quant Finance programs, such as the pioneering one at
Carnegie Mellon started cranking out financial engineers, Quants have
become entirely indispensable to the Wall St eco-system. The simple math of
fixed income instruments has evolved into the much more complex credit
models of today which attempt to more realistically model the dynamics of
the relevant stochastic variables. Equity trading on the sellside has been
completely transformed due to HFT & algorithmic trading as previously
noted. Risk measurement & management based on complex quant models has
now become the de facto standard. Perhaps the most dramatic changes
underway are on the buyside, where old fashioned fundamental security
selection is being rapidly replaced by quant model/ process driven security
selection & optimization based portfolio construction in order to minimize
drawdowns & enhance risk-adjusted returns. Hedge funds in particular, due
to the use of dynamic leverage, dynamic position sizing & time varying beta
were early adopters of Quant as an “edge”.

The growing complexity of markets as dynamical systems (often on the edge
of chaos of late) & the rapid proliferation of voluminous financial data means
that many traders will have no choice but to evolve into systems architects
who use discretion to manipulate model parameters instead of trying to
manually deal with the incessant information overload. The others will have
to become more proficient at leveraging Quant screens in order to keep from
drowning in the sea of data. Technology as an enabler means that the great
insights of Buffett & Benjamin Graham can be rather trivially plugged into a
Yahoo Finance screen online by a 10th grader with modest effort. On the
other hand, the wide dissemination of such information also chips away at
remaining investment opportunities. While traditional stock investing
techniques have found slim pickings in recent years with exacerbated risks &
outsized drawdowns, even some Quants who got complacent have had to
throw in the towel (note the recent closure of Goldman’s Global Alpha fund).
Factor foresight & nimbleness in terms of judicious tweaking of model
parameters to anticipate shifting regimes along with the copious use of
common sense remain a virtue. There is validity to the criticism of over-
reliance on blackbox strategies back-tested on yesterday’s data & the last
                   3
crisis. That said, any well constructed systematic process is still far more
rigorous & transparent than what might transpire inside a trader’s head
which is the ultimate (& ultimately capricious) blackbox. GIGO (garbage in
garbage out) checks are as important in modeling as they are for real life
cognitive biases. Much can be said for the hybrid approach.




  With the financial debt crisis in mind, where would you invest?

Challenging markets like 2008 & 2011 showcase the benefits of rigorous risk
controls & have demonstrably shown that the careful portfolio construction/
optimization inherent to Quant portfolios pays off when the VIX stays
elevated over 30 while traditional deep value investors of the “doubling
down” kind tend to get somewhat battered & bruised. It is noteworthy that
the pension fund behemoths like Calpers are now increasing their allocation
to alternatives while being "underweight" directional equities after having
compounded only 3.41% in the past five years (woefully short of their 7.75%
bogey). Joe Dear (Calpers CIO), noted that with “low interest rates and a
relatively small equity risk premium you have a hard time getting that 7.75”.

Call it Ken Rogoff’s “Second Great Contraction” or Roubini’s “Great
Depression 2.0”, either way, it sure seems we are in the midst of something
far more ominous than a garden variety recession. Should the base case for
Europe ought to be rolling recessions or a depression as the currency bloc
unravels? How many European banks will fail by the time all is said & done?
What are the chances that the European crisis can be contained in this age of
global inter-dependence? What’s going to prop up US equities now that Fed
appears to be out of ammunition & politicians are equating QE with treason?
We repeatedly harped on all of these issues throughout the Fed-orchestrated
contrived QE2 melt-up in Equities. Clearly, at this point enough cans have
been kicked down enough roads in enough countries that one would think
something has to give. Disorderly default/ restructuring remains a significant
risk with the subsequent unraveling of the Euro. The bond market may yet
enforce the truth this time around. A default is a default regardless of the
political euphemism of the day not to mention the inevitable sovereign
downgrades across the globe as we work our way through this massive de-
leveraging cycle. The renewed domestic bi-partisan bickering as the Super-
committee deadline approaches in the US is no more reassuring. Given the
macro headwinds & the fact that the world is unlikely to magically heal itself
anytime soon – we have to believe that regardless of any year end seasonal
relief rallies, most traditional (mutual fund) & HF strategies are likely to
disappoint in the decade to come.

A recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch study noted that HF's correlation with
directional equities hit an all-time high in September which means that the
vast majority of HFs continue to offer less alpha than beta. Meantime,
average pair-wise stock correlations being at historically high levels creates a
challenging environment for stock pickers (quant and fundamental alike).
CTAs & Market Neutral funds e.g., Statistical or Vol Arbitrage strategies have
historically flourished in such volatile environments. Not surprisingly, a new
breed of Black Swan funds have emerged. These “tail risk” funds usually load
up on OTM options in anticipation of exogenous shocks. However, they
usually continue to bleed theta till the Black Swan materializes. Arbitrage
strategies embodied by EMN funds typically do not display this problematic
trait since they are inherently long vol without the theta bleed. One can
safely conjecture that the marginal dollar ought to rotate out of directional
                    4
strategies towards better Sharpe ratios in non-directional strategies like
                                    EMN/ Statistical Arbitrage which can still thrive in a world where the positive
                                    slope of the security market line can no longer be taken for granted (hence
                                    the assumed positive drift term for the stochastic process being modelled).




                                      What do you think about the occupy movement?

                                    For those of us who actually work in the immediate vicinity of Wall St, the
                                    OWS protests have been significantly disruptive. At first, it was difficult to
                                    take this amorphous expression of discontent seriously given that the
                                    protests did not have a clear agenda or a coherent, well-articulated
                                    message. However, the cognoscenti in the form of the Stiglitz’s, Krugman’s &
                                    the Jeffrey Sachs’ have taken it upon themselves to articulate their message
                                    & lend the movement much credibility. The message has been transmogrified
                                    into one representing the "screwflation" of the 99% (to borrow from Doug
                                    Kass). This social unrest is symptomatic of the structural unemployment, a
                                    moribund housing industry, the mortgage mess, the lingering effects of the
                                    credit bubble & most importantly it is a backlash against the income
                                    disparities that came about from capitalistic excesses of recent decades.
                                    How we work towards a self-sustaining economic recovery to address these
                                    issues will depend in large part upon enlightened policy initiatives that get us
                                    to escape velocity. However, this is easier said than done. After all, the
                                    Keynes versus Hayek debate rages on a century later.



                                                Thank you for your insights, Milind, we hope to speak again soon.
                                                                                                     Uwe Wystup
                                                                                Managing Director of MathFinance


                                    Company News
           Career
Business Analyst (m/w)
Risikomanagement -                       MathFinance (Asia) presents its Independent
Quantitativer Fokus,                     Model Validation Services
Deloitte, Düsseldorf,
Frankfurt, München                    Charles Brown and Uwe Wystup, the directors of MathFinance
Für   unser    Team     an   den      (Asia) spent the first week of November to present their
Standorten            Düsseldorf,     independent model validation services in Tokyo, Singapore and
Frankfurt und München suchen          Sydney. In particular, we have validated to pricing of Murex’
wir engagierte Verstärkung.           Local-Stochastic-Volatility (LSV) model(See pdf!).
Ihre Aufgaben
Im       Spannungsfeld        von     The FX Options market has taken a clear trend to LSV models in
Mathematik und regulatorischen        last few years. While top tier banks have developed their own
Anforderungen erarbeiten Sie für      versions of LSV, Murex is the first software vendor to provide an
unsere                 Mandanten      LSV model working on the portfolio level in their risk management
betriebswirtschaftliche Lösungen      system.
unter         Einsatz         von
finanzmathematischen Modellen.        The MathFinance team has implemented the pricing tool for first
Sie verstärken unser Quant-           generation exotics on its own systems and generated automated
Team, das für quantitative            pricing verification using both Monte Carlo and a PDE based
Fragestellungen     im    Kontext     approach. For example, the graph below shows the differences
betriebswirtschaftlicher,             between Murex and MathFinance prices for a large set of touch
aufsichtsrechtlicher         und

                                                        5

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QuantZ Media (June 2012)

  • 1. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of <milind.sharma@quantzcap.com>  06.19.12  www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Hedge Funds 12 Spotlight QuantZ Capital’s Milind Sharma on Applying a ‘Macro Overlay’ to Quantitative Investing a slow, gradual thing? in the higher order effects, namely what Milind Sharma, CEO of New York-based A: We’re really betting on the second does that do to vol and dispersion and QuantZ Capital Management Ltd., spoke order effects. Regardless of whether you stock correlation and all those things. to Bloomberg’s Nathaniel Baker about his have the big event or not, it’s going to be The macro stuff translates directly into views on the global macro picture and how the fact that in the last couple of years a big unwind because there’s no ways to these are incorporated into his hedge fund’s you’ve seen record high stock correla- strategy. get rid of the debt instantaneously. The real issue near term is whether Angela tion. That makes it very difficult for a Merkel and Europe can take a page fundamental, bottom-up stock picker to Q: Your fund was in the top 3 percent in out of our history book from Alexander outperform. The other issue is that when the Bloomberg database last year and Hamilton’s experience and apply it to Eu- you’re in a sideways to downward bear recently won the Battle of the Quants. rope. Even if they do, it’s difficult to see market, the typical long/short process What’s the strategy, exactly? how the world can magically heal itself. doesn’t work well. Because most long/ Because we’re still looking at a potential short funds are essentially levered beta A: We’re ‘quantamental,’ which means hard-landing scenario in China, India’s riders. They see a rally, they load up and a hybrid of quantitative-driven on the not in great shape with inflation, the jump on. Not to mention that with the securities selection side with some macro Japanese have plenty of their own debt pressure on expert networks and Reg adjustment/macro overlay, if you will. to worry about and are only 23 years into FD it’s gotten much harder for many of their bear market, and we’re 13 years into these managers to do what they used Q: Quantamental. I like that. How does ours. We see the ‘lost decade’ in stocks to do. Plus, with the relative volume in the macro overlay work? – not the one that just happened, but ETFs rising dramatically, you’ve got an A: It’s taking our house view and environment where a process-driven the one that’s likely to come – to act like combining it with a regime-switching ap- strategy can tweak the right levers to a dampened oscillator. This means that proach. Basically forecasting probabili- take advantage of these issues. each successive episode of quantitative ties, which then drive the portfolio tilt easing will be less and less effective. As and overall portfolio orientation. There’s Q: Isn’t there a lot of upwards/down- an example, this is the third year in a row a lot of moving parts. wards/sideways movement as we go that we’ve seen a very serious déjà-vu script playing out; you get a very strong along here? Q: So what are your macro views then? first quarter, market peaks in April or A: Exactly. In general, one should expect A: We sound like a broken record in May, then you get a summer swoon. For much higher volatility and correlation in terms of our perma-bearish outlook but the third year in a row we’ve been justi- these bear market cycles. That’s some- that’s because frankly we see either a fied in being cautious that once the sugar thing a quant process can take advantage ‘checkmate’ or a ‘stalemate.’ We don’t high of quantitative easing wears off, the of. We for instance are always implicitly see any great scenarios that can come same script plays out. What I’m saying is long vol/long dispersion. But we can out of this massive deleveraging cycle. that at some point you’re going to have choose to be long correlation/short cor- We’re in the camp of this being a great an episode of QE perceived not as a relation by tweaking our ratio bets on stagnation/deflationary bust or secular license to melt up, but as sheer despera- idiosyncratic versus common factor risk. bear market. tion on part of the Fed. Q: I think you just lost me. Q: What are your big concerns? It Q: How are these views translated into A: It’s very difficult for fundamental man- sounds like this goes beyond Greece your strategy exactly? How does that agers to even measure their idiosyncratic and European sovereign debt? mechanism work? versus common factor levels, much less A: That’s right. All of the above plus of A: As I mentioned we’re more interested take advantage of that. course the domestic issues: your fiscal cliff, the $46 trillion of unfunded liabilities, trying to solve the debt overhang with more debt and the possibility of a disor- Age: 40 derly default or disorderly decline in one of the major reserve currencies. At the College/University/Grad School(s): Oxford, Vassar, Carnegie Mellon, Wharton end of the day, we believe that enough Professional Background: MLIM, ran proprietary stat arb portfolios at RBC cans have been kicked down enough roads in enough countries that some- and Deutsche Bank AG, the latter under Boaz Weinstein. thing’s got to give at some point soon. Mentors: Boaz Weinstein; Bob Doll, vice chairman of BlackRock. Q: Will this be a big event or more like Charitable Work: Ti Kay Haiti (www.tikayhaiti.org)  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 
  • 2. “QuantZ - Winner of the Best Quant fund award at the Battle of the Quants 2012”   
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. FINalternatives Published on FINalternatives (http://www.finalternatives.com) QuantZ Adds 3.9% In Oct., Up 16.45% YTD Nov 10 2011 | 9:58am ET QuantZ Capital Management hasn’t lost a step this year as it pushes towards 2012 up by double-digits. While many of its peers have suffered some nauseating ups-and-downs over the past several months, QuantZ's Quark Equity Market Neutral Fund has been a paragon of consistency, rising 2.46% in August, 2.5% in September and 3.91% in October, leaving the fund up 16.45% on the year. "We have reason to believe that, regardless of any year-end seasonal relief rallies, most traditional and hedge fund strategies are likely to disappoint in the decade to come," QuantZ wrote, citing continuing troubles in Europe and the U.S. deadlock on deficit reduction. And, citing several recent studies showing that women make better risk managers, the firm unveiled a new motto, of sorts: "No cowboy acts. Trade like a girl." QuantZ has had only two down months all year, January and July. Source URL: http://www.finalternatives.com/node/18704
  • 6. FINalternatives Published on FINalternatives (http://www.finalternatives.com) JAT, Citadel, QuantZ Among Top Hedge Funds In '11 Oct 5 2011 | 1:05pm ET A pair of prominent hedge funds are among the best-performers of the year with just three months to go in 2011. JAT Capital Management and Citadel Invest Group are both up by double-digits this year, according to published reports. The former may be the best of all, having returned 37.4% through Sept. 23. JAT, which has recently closed its fund to new investors, was up 1.8% with a week to go in September. Citadel had more modest monthly and year-to-date returns, but impressive nonetheless. The Chicago hedge fund giant's flagship Kensington and Wellington funds rose 0.25% last month, buoyed by their global equities strategy, which rose 2.35% on the month. The two funds are now up 15.1% on the year, Institutional Investor reports. Also up double-digits this year is QuantZ Capital Management's Quark Equity Market Neutral Fund, which rose 2.5% in September and is up 11.85%. Others were not so lucky: Greenlight Capital added 0.2% on the month. But neither that gain— nor the fact that Greenlight was up, marginally, in the third quarter—can distract from the firm's 5.1% year-to-date loss. Source URL: http://www.finalternatives.com/node/18293
  • 7. Goldman to Close Global Alpha Fund After Losses GOLDMAN SACHS FUNDS STOCK MARKETS EQUITIES FINANCIAL CRISIS RECESSION SAFE HAVENS INVESTORS BANKING CNBC.com | 16 Sep 2011 | 03:21 AM ET Goldman Sachs Group is shuttering a well-known hedge fund that relies on computer-driven trading strategies after the portfolio rang up a hefty loss this year. Goldman told investors in the roughly $1.6 billion Global Alpha fund the news on Thursday, one day after it announced a management shake-up at the fund that had been the crown jewel of its quantitative trading business. The fund will be closed in the next few weeks. Global Alpha had tumbled 13 percent by early September, delivering a far worse performance than other hedge funds that rely on computer programs to quickly take advantage of opportunities in the market, people familiar with the number said. These types of funds are supposed to move quickly in and out of stocks, bonds, currencies and other assets and exit positions before losses accrue. This is the second time in four years the Global Alpha fund — once one of Goldman's biggest with $12 billion in assets — has suffered big losses and its performance raises questions about the ability of Goldman Sachs to manage quantitative strategies for its wealthy clients. In fact, people familiar with Goldman Sachs have said the company's decision to liquidate Global Alpha signals its decision to exit quantitative hedge fund strategies altogether. The firm still manages billions in quantitative mutual funds. Goldman Sachs declined to comment. Even though Goldman's Global Alpha fund is in the red, most other other quantitative hedge funds are up or are flat for the year. The average quant fund is down less than 1 percent over that period, according to performance tracking service Hedge Fund Research Inc. Mark Carhart, the man who managed the Global Alpha fund with Raymond Iwanowski for more than a decade until 2009, has gained 7 percent net of fees this year at his new hedge fund Kepos Capital, a person familiar with his numbers said.
  • 8. The new turmoil at Global Alpha comes almost four years to the day after the fund lost 22.5 percent in August 2007, during the early days of the financial crisis. Those losses prompted investors to pull money out. Even though the fund's performance steadied with a 4 percent gain in 2008 and raced ahead with a 30 percent increase in 2009, assets never recovered. By the time Carhart and Iwanowski left in 2009, the fund had shrunk to $4 billion from its $12 billion peak. Soon after the pair retired, assets shriveled further to about $2 billion. The fund neither gained nor lost money last year, delivering a zero return. The quantitative group has been beset by departures for some time. More than two dozen left this year alone, people familiar with the numbers said. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs Asset Management sent a letter to Global Alpha investors notifying them that Katinka Domotorffy, the head of the group's quantitative investment strategies, would retire at year's end. The letter, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, did not discuss the poor performance of the Global Alpha fund. Deja Vu Again What may have hit the Goldman fund especially hard were the unexpected stock market sell offs in early August and recent currency market fluctuations in the wake of the Swiss National Bank's decision to halt the rise of the Swiss franc, people familiar with the fund's models said. Andrew Schneider, president and CEO of Global Hedge Fund Advisors, said the first half of September has been brutal for some large hedge funds, due to unpredictable moves in market direction. "The volatility has been so high; if you're wrong, especially if you're using margin or leverage, your returns are going to be extremely poor," said Schneider. Other quantitative hedge funds, however, fared better. James Simons' Renaissance Technologies' Renaissance Institutional Equities fund has gained more than 25 percent this year, said a person familiar with the fund run by the math professor turned hedge fund manager. Another quant fund, QuantZ Capital Management, for instance, is up 12.8 percent through Sept. 6, according to a letter sent to investors. © 2011 CNBC.com URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44545789/
  • 9.   0.25.11  1 hedge funds | Bloomberg Brief 2 Returns in Brief ■■ Fortress Investment Group LLC’s Commodities Fund LP was down 5 basis points Hedge Fund Returns in September, according to a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg. “Gains were Bloomberg BAIF indices, which represent all funds made primarily in short metals and energy positions, offset by losses incurred in our tracked by Bloomberg data, are the source of the long gold and corn positions,” William Callanan, the fund’s chief investment officer, below hedge fund and fund of funds data. wrote in the letter. Hedge Funds Funds of Funds S&P 500 2-Year Treasuries (Merrill Lynch Total Return Index) 15.06% ■■ Tiburon Holdings LLC, the New York-based event-driven fund that has $50 mil- lion in assets, has gained 4 percent this year, according to a person familiar with the 8.18% matter. The fund is run by Peter Lupoff, a former portfolio manager at Millennium Partners LP. Tiburon started in November 2009. 3.90%* 2.47% 1.36% ■■ MAST Capital Management LLC’s Credit Opportunities I fund returned 1.7 per- -8.68% -0.89% -1.03% cent in September, its fifth straight month of positive returns, to bring year-to-date 2010 total returns performance to 6.64 percent, according to a letter to investors that was obtained by 2011 YTD total returns Bloomberg. Gains in the fund’s long CDS book, “as well as both special situation *from Feb. 26, 2010 single name bond and equity shorts,” drove gains, the letter said. The fund is man- aged by David Steinberg. Bloomberg Brief Hedge Funds ■■ QuantZ Capital Management’s Quark Equity Market Neutral Fund gained 4.7 per- Newsletter Ted Merz cent through Oct. 17, bringing year-to-date returns to 17 percent, according to a letter Executive Editor tmerz@bloomberg.net to investors, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg. The New York-based fund is 212-617-2309 managed by Milind Sharma. Bloomberg News Rob Urban —Compiled by Kelly Bit and Nathaniel E. Baker Managing Editor robprag@bloomberg.net 212-617-5192 Hedge Funds Nathaniel E. Baker For this week’s Performance Snapshot, featuring distressed hedge funds, see page 10. Editors nbaker14@bloomberg.net 212-617-2741 returns by strategy Melissa Karsh mkarsh@bloomberg.net Strategy 2010 September 2011 2011 year-to-date 212-617-4557 Reporter Kelly Bit Mortgage-Backed Arbitrage 24.6 -0.2 13.0 kbit@bloomberg.net 212-617-1097 Equity Statistical Arbitrage 3.4 0.6 7.3 Contributing Katherine Burton Fixed Income Arbitrage 3.7 0.6 3.7 Reporters kburton@bloomberg.net 212-617-2335 Short-Biased Equities 7.2 3.2 3.4 Saijel Kishan skishan@bloomberg.net Emerging Market Debt 13.3 -1.1 2.8 212-617-6662 Contributing Matthew Kelly Capital Structure Arbitrage 2.1 -1.3 2.8 Data Editors mkelly17@bloomberg.net 609-279-5064 Directional Fixed-Income 5.3 -0.4 2.7 Anibal Arrascue aarrascue@bloomberg.net Convertible Arbitrage 2.7 -0.2 2.5 609-279-5084 Market-Neutral 5.5 -1.7 2.0 Newsletter Nick Ferris Business Manager nferris2@bloomberg.net 212-617-6975 Multi-Strategy 4.0 -0.8 1.9 Advertising bbrief@bloomberg.net Long/Short Equities 5.8 -3.4 1.8 212-617-6975 Reprints & Lori Husted Merger Arbitrage 3.7 -1.7 0.8 Permissions lori.husted@theygsgroup.com 717-505-9701 CTA/Managed Futures 1.7 0.3 -0.6 To subscribe via the Bloomberg Professional Terminal type BRIEF <go> or on the web at Global Macro 4.4 -0.5 -0.9 www.bloomberg.com/brief/hedgefunds Distressed Securities 12.0 -3.1 -1.4 © 2011 Bloomberg LP. All rights reserved. This newsletter and its contents may not be Long-Biased Equities 5.3 -3.5 -6.1 forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent of Bloomberg. Please contact our reprints and Source: Bloomberg Hedge Fund Indices permissions group listed above for more information. Type HFND<GO> to view return statistics   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15 
  • 10. Esma Gregor Subject: FW: MathFinance Newsletter w photo you cannot view this newsletter please click here Newsletter | 15 Nov 2011 | Issue 263 In this issue Editorial Interview with Milind Sharma, CEO, QuantZ Capital § Editorial Management § Company News Mr. Sharma is Chief Executive Officer, QuantZ Capital Management. He ran the LTMN desk in Global Arbitrage & Trading at RBC where he served as Portfolio Manager for Quant EMN. In his capacity as Director § News & Senior Proprietary Trader at Deutsche, he managed Quant EMN portfolios of significant size & contributed to the broader prop mandate in Cap Structure Arb & with LBOs. Prior to that he was co- § Upcoming Events founder of Quant Strategies (previously R&P) at BlackRock (MLIM). Prior to MLIM, he was Manager of the Risk Analytics and Research Group at Ernst & Young LLP where he was co-architect of Raven (one § Career of the earliest derivatives pricing/ validation engines) & co-created the 1st model for pricing cross-currency puttable Bermudan swaptions. § Resources Amongst the first to receive a degree in Financial Engineering from the pioneering MSCF program at Tepper (Carnegie Mellon), Mr. Sharma has a dual MS in Applied Math from CMU where he was also in the PhD program. His publications have appeared in the Journal of Investment Management, Risk, Wiley, HedgeQuest, World Scientific, Elsevier etc. and he is a frequent speaker at conferences. Milind, you are an experienced fund manager with a quantitative background, where do you see the current trends in the investment industry in NY? Clearly the investment industry is witnessing a radically new paradigm driven by tectonic shifts which need to be acknowledged first before they can be effectively dealt with: 1.De-bunking the “stocks for the long run” thesis & its “buy & hold” corollary which have turned out to be disastrous in recent years is critical in light of the fact that the S&P500 has gone nowhere fast for some 13 years now. For perspective, it took 25 years for the S&P to reclaim the Sept 1929 highs. Japan aside, there are a number of countries where Beta one i.e. long only investing has been a fool’s game. Given the post-WWII period of prosperity (of which the US was the prime beneficiary), this inductive fallacy tantamount to stocks having the God given birth- right to go up in the long run became the accepted wisdom. Even after a lost decade & faced with potentially another lost decade 1
  • 11. in Equities the investment industry remains utterly paralyzed in terms of dealing with the grim new reality. The simple reason for this seemingly inexplicable paralysis is that the vast majority of professional investors, allocators & retail individuals grew up wired inherently “long biased”. Shorting stocks/ hedging is rather more difficult & requires much greater quantitative wherewithal than most participants of the eco-system have had at their disposal, not to mention that it pre-supposes a re-wiring of the industry mind-space. 2.Alpha vs. Beta & closet Levered Long Beta riders: Coming out of denial about the fallibility of “stocks for the long run” thesis allows us to abandon the Beta one default position with respect to various asset classes. The housing market collapse of recent years has shown that even the American dream of home ownership was not immune to the forces of financial gravity. Inflation adjusted Real Estate has in fact been a lousy long term investment in the developed world contrary to popular misconceptions. The archetypal “hedge” fund of Alfred Jones was supposed to be “hedged”. Sadly, most long-short Equity managers fail miserably in Bear markets because of their inability to monetize alpha on the short side since most are far from hedged. The data shows that LS Equity HF managers are mostly “closet” Long-biased Beta chasers (analogous to their “closet” index hugging Mutual Fund brethren) who tend to lever up long when they sense a rally coming. Given the scant evidence in support of market timing prowess, it appears that many fundamental managers have simply granted themselves the license to gamble. This often results in stomach-churning drawdowns which cannot be justified based on any sensible risk framework. Needless to say, when the VIX remains elevated for a period of time (2008 & 2011 to wit) with sideways to downwards churn, this approach fails. Allocators can choose to be more discerning & refuse to pay 2 & 20 for mere Beta access (which should only cost 5 to 10 bps given the availability of index ETFs). After all, even cab drivers have great stock tips to offer during raging bull markets. It is only when the tide goes out that we get to know who is swimming naked. 3.Regulatory hurdles to putative fundamental alpha: By now we all know that US regulators have done a mighty fine job of prosecuting the insider trading cabals of Galleon & SAC alumni. More important for investors to take note of is the prosecution of expert networks & the fundamental Long-Short clientele who were heavily reliant upon such “expertise”. Noah Freeman’s (SAC alum) damning testimony regarding the use of expert networks should put a chill on supposedly standard industry practices amongst fundamental managers. In light of that, one can’t help but notice the interestingly coincidental timing of SAC’s Quant fund launch. The better known fundamental stock pickers now aspire to be Quants? The changing landscape for fundamental Long-Short based on recent developments is reminiscent of what transpired post Reg-FD which brought an end to the incestuous peddling of information between management & the Street. 4.High Frequency Trading: HFT & the onslaught of algorithmic trading has dramatically reshaped the equity landscape. The manifold compression of bid/ ask spreads, reduction of commissions almost to zero & increased liquidity are all 2
  • 12. unadulterated positives for both the retail & institutional investor alike & have greatly enhanced market efficiency. Alas, the media spin on these remarkably positive developments has been remarkably negative for the simple reason that most of the talking heads on TV are the old timers who either don’t get it, are too innumerate to get it or belong to the disgruntled masses dis- intermediated by the onslaught of algorithmic trading. Let’s not forget that the much revered “specialist” in the old system in fact turned out to be the ultimate frontrunner (by virtue of being the human backstop with access to the order book). Despite the indictment & successful conviction of NYSE specialist firms, we continue to hear buyside managers reminisce blissfully as to how great the old system was (back when they paid obscenely large commissions as opposed to the putative evils of HFT). Alas, the industry remains woefully in denial about the paradigm shifts in the making. How important are Quants and who uses quantitative models? Do we still need quants in the financial industry? In the 15+ years since Quant Finance programs, such as the pioneering one at Carnegie Mellon started cranking out financial engineers, Quants have become entirely indispensable to the Wall St eco-system. The simple math of fixed income instruments has evolved into the much more complex credit models of today which attempt to more realistically model the dynamics of the relevant stochastic variables. Equity trading on the sellside has been completely transformed due to HFT & algorithmic trading as previously noted. Risk measurement & management based on complex quant models has now become the de facto standard. Perhaps the most dramatic changes underway are on the buyside, where old fashioned fundamental security selection is being rapidly replaced by quant model/ process driven security selection & optimization based portfolio construction in order to minimize drawdowns & enhance risk-adjusted returns. Hedge funds in particular, due to the use of dynamic leverage, dynamic position sizing & time varying beta were early adopters of Quant as an “edge”. The growing complexity of markets as dynamical systems (often on the edge of chaos of late) & the rapid proliferation of voluminous financial data means that many traders will have no choice but to evolve into systems architects who use discretion to manipulate model parameters instead of trying to manually deal with the incessant information overload. The others will have to become more proficient at leveraging Quant screens in order to keep from drowning in the sea of data. Technology as an enabler means that the great insights of Buffett & Benjamin Graham can be rather trivially plugged into a Yahoo Finance screen online by a 10th grader with modest effort. On the other hand, the wide dissemination of such information also chips away at remaining investment opportunities. While traditional stock investing techniques have found slim pickings in recent years with exacerbated risks & outsized drawdowns, even some Quants who got complacent have had to throw in the towel (note the recent closure of Goldman’s Global Alpha fund). Factor foresight & nimbleness in terms of judicious tweaking of model parameters to anticipate shifting regimes along with the copious use of common sense remain a virtue. There is validity to the criticism of over- reliance on blackbox strategies back-tested on yesterday’s data & the last 3
  • 13. crisis. That said, any well constructed systematic process is still far more rigorous & transparent than what might transpire inside a trader’s head which is the ultimate (& ultimately capricious) blackbox. GIGO (garbage in garbage out) checks are as important in modeling as they are for real life cognitive biases. Much can be said for the hybrid approach. With the financial debt crisis in mind, where would you invest? Challenging markets like 2008 & 2011 showcase the benefits of rigorous risk controls & have demonstrably shown that the careful portfolio construction/ optimization inherent to Quant portfolios pays off when the VIX stays elevated over 30 while traditional deep value investors of the “doubling down” kind tend to get somewhat battered & bruised. It is noteworthy that the pension fund behemoths like Calpers are now increasing their allocation to alternatives while being "underweight" directional equities after having compounded only 3.41% in the past five years (woefully short of their 7.75% bogey). Joe Dear (Calpers CIO), noted that with “low interest rates and a relatively small equity risk premium you have a hard time getting that 7.75”. Call it Ken Rogoff’s “Second Great Contraction” or Roubini’s “Great Depression 2.0”, either way, it sure seems we are in the midst of something far more ominous than a garden variety recession. Should the base case for Europe ought to be rolling recessions or a depression as the currency bloc unravels? How many European banks will fail by the time all is said & done? What are the chances that the European crisis can be contained in this age of global inter-dependence? What’s going to prop up US equities now that Fed appears to be out of ammunition & politicians are equating QE with treason? We repeatedly harped on all of these issues throughout the Fed-orchestrated contrived QE2 melt-up in Equities. Clearly, at this point enough cans have been kicked down enough roads in enough countries that one would think something has to give. Disorderly default/ restructuring remains a significant risk with the subsequent unraveling of the Euro. The bond market may yet enforce the truth this time around. A default is a default regardless of the political euphemism of the day not to mention the inevitable sovereign downgrades across the globe as we work our way through this massive de- leveraging cycle. The renewed domestic bi-partisan bickering as the Super- committee deadline approaches in the US is no more reassuring. Given the macro headwinds & the fact that the world is unlikely to magically heal itself anytime soon – we have to believe that regardless of any year end seasonal relief rallies, most traditional (mutual fund) & HF strategies are likely to disappoint in the decade to come. A recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch study noted that HF's correlation with directional equities hit an all-time high in September which means that the vast majority of HFs continue to offer less alpha than beta. Meantime, average pair-wise stock correlations being at historically high levels creates a challenging environment for stock pickers (quant and fundamental alike). CTAs & Market Neutral funds e.g., Statistical or Vol Arbitrage strategies have historically flourished in such volatile environments. Not surprisingly, a new breed of Black Swan funds have emerged. These “tail risk” funds usually load up on OTM options in anticipation of exogenous shocks. However, they usually continue to bleed theta till the Black Swan materializes. Arbitrage strategies embodied by EMN funds typically do not display this problematic trait since they are inherently long vol without the theta bleed. One can safely conjecture that the marginal dollar ought to rotate out of directional 4
  • 14. strategies towards better Sharpe ratios in non-directional strategies like EMN/ Statistical Arbitrage which can still thrive in a world where the positive slope of the security market line can no longer be taken for granted (hence the assumed positive drift term for the stochastic process being modelled). What do you think about the occupy movement? For those of us who actually work in the immediate vicinity of Wall St, the OWS protests have been significantly disruptive. At first, it was difficult to take this amorphous expression of discontent seriously given that the protests did not have a clear agenda or a coherent, well-articulated message. However, the cognoscenti in the form of the Stiglitz’s, Krugman’s & the Jeffrey Sachs’ have taken it upon themselves to articulate their message & lend the movement much credibility. The message has been transmogrified into one representing the "screwflation" of the 99% (to borrow from Doug Kass). This social unrest is symptomatic of the structural unemployment, a moribund housing industry, the mortgage mess, the lingering effects of the credit bubble & most importantly it is a backlash against the income disparities that came about from capitalistic excesses of recent decades. How we work towards a self-sustaining economic recovery to address these issues will depend in large part upon enlightened policy initiatives that get us to escape velocity. However, this is easier said than done. After all, the Keynes versus Hayek debate rages on a century later. Thank you for your insights, Milind, we hope to speak again soon. Uwe Wystup Managing Director of MathFinance Company News Career Business Analyst (m/w) Risikomanagement - MathFinance (Asia) presents its Independent Quantitativer Fokus, Model Validation Services Deloitte, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, München Charles Brown and Uwe Wystup, the directors of MathFinance Für unser Team an den (Asia) spent the first week of November to present their Standorten Düsseldorf, independent model validation services in Tokyo, Singapore and Frankfurt und München suchen Sydney. In particular, we have validated to pricing of Murex’ wir engagierte Verstärkung. Local-Stochastic-Volatility (LSV) model(See pdf!). Ihre Aufgaben Im Spannungsfeld von The FX Options market has taken a clear trend to LSV models in Mathematik und regulatorischen last few years. While top tier banks have developed their own Anforderungen erarbeiten Sie für versions of LSV, Murex is the first software vendor to provide an unsere Mandanten LSV model working on the portfolio level in their risk management betriebswirtschaftliche Lösungen system. unter Einsatz von finanzmathematischen Modellen. The MathFinance team has implemented the pricing tool for first Sie verstärken unser Quant- generation exotics on its own systems and generated automated Team, das für quantitative pricing verification using both Monte Carlo and a PDE based Fragestellungen im Kontext approach. For example, the graph below shows the differences betriebswirtschaftlicher, between Murex and MathFinance prices for a large set of touch aufsichtsrechtlicher und 5