Shamik Gold Standard & Reasons 2011 Sept

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director
Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets
Microsec Commerze Limited

11 Reasons plus, Gold Could Go to 5,000$ -- $10,000. In the Next 24-48 Months! Bonds –debt
market could collapse! Interest rates could double from here..........

We may reach levels for gold previously thought of as crazy – $5,000 an ounce or even $10,000 –
with plenty of volatility and pullbacks along the way… and in my opinion there are 10 reasons it
could happen within the next48 odd months and, if not by then, then soon after. Why? As Patrick
Kerr argues, because, in short, there is way too much fiat currency chasing way too little gold.

1. Reflation

As the world looks to “reflate” their economies, fiat currencies (dollar, euro etc) are being deliberately
devalued by governments worldwide as a way to get out from massive debt burdens that were run up
during “credit bubble” and continue at ever higher levels with “stimulus” plans. The U.S. very much
wants and needs a weaker dollar and low interest rates as deficits and unemployment continue to soar.
Fiat currencies will likely continue to be aggressively devalued over the next decade.

2. Increase in Chinese Gold Reserves

China has $2 Trillion in foreign currency reserves (fiat currency) and only 2% in gold, vs. 75% for US
and 10% worldwide average. With every .5% drop in the dollar the value of China’s foreign currency
reserves drop by $10 billion dollars (a move happening daily recently). If China wisely decides to
increase its gold reserves and reduce it fiat currency exposure to even just the worldwide average, gold
prices could move substantially higher and stay at higher price levels.

3. Lack of Gold Supply

The gold industry has not replaced gold reserves mined in over a decade. Gold is simply too scarce and
scarcity means shortages on the near term horizon. Shortages in gold means there is not enough physical
gold available to cover the massive quantities of gold that has been “lent”, “leased” or “pledged”. This
situation will only be exasperated going forward opening the real possibility of a major gold short squeeze
and possible price spike pushing gold to the stratosphere (and keeping it there).

4. Scarcity of Gold

Throughout history only 160,000 tons of gold has ever been mined. For folks who might not know, all the
gold that’s ever been found would fit into two olympic-size swimming pools! At today’s prices that
equates to $9 trillion dollars vs $60 trillion in outstanding fiat currency. As fiat currency continues to be
deliberately debased look for this price relationship to invert.

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Shamik Bhose
sbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director
5. Repatriation of Gold

Hong Kong recently pulled all its gold holdings and deposits from London. Hong Kong wants to
physically possess and control its gold and now does. Look for other countries to follow.

6. Central Banks Becoming Net Buyers of Gold

Central banks are in the process of switching from net sellers of gold to net buyers, this is a major secular
change and is likely to continue as other central banks look to follow suit diversify reserves away from
heavy fiat currency exposure.

7. Major Insurance Companies Now Buying Gold

Northwestern Mutual, considered a conservatively run yet savvy company, recently purchased $400
million worth of gold, its first purchase in 152 years. Its CEO Edward Zore believes gold could increase
five fold. Look for other insurance companies to follow.

8. Sovereign Wealth Funds Buying Gold

The sovereign wealth funds of China, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have begun heavily investing in
commodities world-wide to diversify out of fiat currency (dollar, euro). Look for more SWFs to follow.

9. Major Fund Managers Buying Gold

Respected and widely followed fund managers are publicly piling into gold and/or out of the dollar and
other fiat currencies including John Paulson, Bill Gross, Paul Tudor Jones, Kyle Bass, Andrew Hall,
David Einhorn, Paolo Pellegrini, John Burbank, Sri Kumar, David Rosenberg (economist), John
Hasenstab, Evy Hambro, Donald Coxe, John Brynjolfsson, Henry McVey, Eric Sprott, Steve Leuthold
and David Tice. Look for other major mutual funds, hedge funds and pension funds to follow the leaders.

10. Gold Hedging Concluding

Traditional gold hedgers (producers, miners etc) such as Barrick, the world’s largest gold company, are
eliminating their hedge books…essentially taking the cap of the market…as gold supplies dry up
producers are no longer locking in prices by selling massive quantities of futures contracts…this takes
selling pressure off and indicates producers believe prices will be going much higher. Look for all
producers to unwind their hedge books.

Conclusion

The world is changing rapidly. Old world powers, like the US, are making room on the stage for new
world powers like China. Previous deep pockets are being displaced by new even deeper pockets: Central
Banks. All of the above indicates the possibility much higher prices to come. The first movers in all the
categories above (central banks, insurance companies, funds, sovereign wealth funds) will have the
advantage of getting in at lower prices.

Late movers will be forced to buy at higher prices….. 11th and more reasons to be continued in
Part-3

Shamik Bhose

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director

Updating: Analysts Who Foresee $3,000 to 5,000/oz or More Gold ;

I am there towards the end as a conservative voice(apparently),predicting sometime in late 2010
that gold hits 3000$ by 2014

Who would have believed that 133 distinguished analysts would maintain that gold and by
implication, silver, are likely to achieve such lofty levels as a result of the effects of our current
financially troubled and volatile times? Their rationale is varied but each is sound in its own right.

This updates an article published a by ResourceInvestor.com last summer when 72 analysts
foresaw parabolic gold...by lorimer Wilson

Of the 133 analysts who have now gone public in maintaining that gold will eventually go to a parabolic
peak price of $2,500/ozt.+ before the bubble bursts, 90 – yes 90 – currently maintain that gold will
reach at least $5,000 per ozt. Take a look here at who is projecting what, by when.

Three Analysts See Gold Reaching its Parabolic Peak Sometime in 2011:

1. Bob Kirtley $10,000
2. Patrick Kerr $5,000-$10,000
3. Taran Marwah $3,000

10 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Peak By the End of 2012:

1. Arnold Bock $10,000
2. Porter Stansberry $10,000
3. Taran Marwah $6,000+
4. Greg McCoach $5,000+
5. Robert McEwen $5,000
6. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden $3,000-$5,000;
7. John Paulson $2,400-$4,000
8. Ian McAvity $2,500-$3,000
9. Peter Hambro $2,500
10. Charles Nenner $2,500

11 Analysts See Gold Going Parabolic to +$10,000

1. Doctor RX $20,000 (by 2020)
2. Mike Maloney $15,000
3. Ben Davies $10,000-$15,000
4. Howard Katz $14,000
5. Jeffrey Lewis $7,000-$14,000
6. Jim Sinclair $12,455

Shamik Bhose

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director
7. Goldrunner $10,000–$12,000
8. Martin Armstrong $5,000-$12,000 (by 2015/16)
9. Robin Griffiths $3,000-$12,000 (by 2015)
10. Jim Rickards $4,000-$11,000
11. Roland Watson $10,800

46 Analysts See Gold Price Peaking Between $5,001 and $10,000

1. Bob Kirtley $10,000 (by 2011)
2. Arnold Bock $10,000 (by 2012)
3. Porter Stansberry $10,000 (by 2012)
4. Peter George $10,000 (by 2015)
5. Tom Fischer $10,000
6. Shayne McGuire $10,000
7. Eric Hommelberg $10,000
8. David Petch $6,000-$10,000
9. Gerald Celente $6,000-$10,000
10. Egon von Greyerz $6,000-$10,000
11. Peter Schiff $5,000-$10,000 (in 5 to 10 years)
12. Patrick Kerr $5,000-$10,000 (by 2011)
13. Peter Millar $5,000-$10,000
14. Roger Wiegand $5,000-$10,000
15. Alf Field $4,250-$10,000
16. Jeff Nielson $3,000-$10,000
17. Dennis van Ek $9,000 (by 2015)
18. Dominic Frisby $8,000
19. Paul Brodsky $8,000
20. James Turk $8,000 (by 2015)
21. Joseph Russo $7,000-$8,000
22. Bob Chapman $7,700
23. Michael Rozeff $2,865-$7,151
24. Jim Willie $7,000
25. Greg McCoach $6,500
26. Dylan Grice $6,300
27. Chris Mack $6,241.64 (by 2015)
28. Chuck DiFalco $6,214 (by 2018)
29. Jeff Clark $6,214
30. Aubie Baltin $6,200 (by 2017)
31. Murray Sabrin $6,153
32. Adam Hamilton $6,000+
33. Samuel “Bud” Kress $6,000 (by 2014)
34. Robert Kientz $6,000
35. Harry Schultz $6,000
36. John Bougearel $6,000
37. David Tice $5,000-$6,000
38. Laurence Hunt $5,000-$6,000 (by 2019)
39. Taran Marwah $3,000-$6,000+ (by Dec. 2011 and Dec.2012, respectively)
40. Martin Hutchinson $3,100-$5,700
41. Stephen Leeb $5,500 (by 2015)

Shamik Bhose

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director

42. Louise Yamada $5,200
43. Jeremy Charlesworth $5,000+
44. Przemyslaw Radomski $5,000+
45. Jason Hamlin $5,000+
46. David McAlvany $5,000+

Cumulative sub-total: 57

33 Analysts Believe Gold Price Could Go As High As $5,000

1. David Rosenberg $5,000
2. James West $5,000
3. Doug Casey $5,000
4. Peter Cooper $5,000
5. Robert McEwen $5,000 (by 2012-2014)
6. Peter Krauth $5,000
7. Tim Iacono $5,000 (by 2017)
8. Christopher Wyke $5,000
9. Frank Barbera $5,000
10. John Lee $5,000
11. Barry Dawes $5,000
12. Bob Lenzer $5,000 (by 2015)
13. Steve Betts $5,000
14. Stewart Thomson $5,000
15. Charles Morris $5,000 (by 2015)
16. Marvin Clark $5,000 (by 2015)
17. Eric Sprott $5,000
18. Nathan Narusis $5,000
19. Bud Conrad $4,000-$5,000
20. Paul Mylchreest $4,000-$5,000
21. Pierre Lassonde $4,000$5,000
22. Willem Middelkoop $4,000-$5,000
23. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden $3,000-$5,000 (by February 2012)
24. James Dines $3,000-$5,000
25. Bill Murphy $3,000-$5,000
26. Bill Bonner $3,000-$5,000
27. Peter Degraaf $2,500-$5,000
28. Eric Janszen $2,500-$5,000
29. Larry Jeddeloh $2,300-$5,000 (by 2013)
30. Larry Edelson: $2,300-$5,000 (by 2015)
31. Luke Burgess $2,000-$5,000
32. Marc Faber $1,500-$5,000
33. Robert Lloyd-George $5,000 (by 2014)


Shamik Bhose

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director


31 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Up to Between $3,000 and $4,999

1. David Moenning $4,525
2. Larry Reaugh $4,000+
3. Ernest Kepper $4,000
4. Mike Knowles $4,000
5. Ian Gordon/Christopher Funston $4,000
6. Barry Elias $4,000 (by 2020)
7. Jay Taylor $3,000-$4,000
8. Christian Barnard $2,500-$4,000
9. John Paulson $2,400-$4,000 (by 2012)
10. Paul Tustain $3,844
11. Myles Zyblock $3,800
12. Eric Roseman $2,500-$3,500 (by 2015)
13. Christopher Wood $3,360
14. Franklin Sanders $3,130
15. John Henderson $3,000+ (by 2015-17)
16. Michael Berry $3,000+ (by 2015)
17. Hans Goetti $3,000
18. Michael Yorba $3,000
19. David Urban $3,000
20. Mitchell Langbert $3,000
21. Brett Arends $3,000
22. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard $3,000
23. John Williams $3,000
24. Byron King $3,000
25. Ron Paul $3,000 (by 2020)
26. Chris Weber $3,000 (by 2020)
27. Mark Leibovit $3,000
28. Mark O’Byrne $3,000
29. Kevin Kerr $3,000
30. Frank Holmes $3,000
31. Shamik Bhose $3,000 (by 2014)


12 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go to Between $2,500 and $3,000

1. Ian McAvity $2,500-$3,000 (by 2012)
2. Jeff Nichols $2,000-$3,000
3. Graham French $2,000-$3,000
4. Bank of America Merrill Lynch $2,000-$3,000
5. Joe Foster $2,000-$3,000 (by 2019)
6. David Morgan $2,900
7. Sascha Opel $2,500+

Shamik Bhose

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director
8. Rick Rule $2,500 (by 2013)
9. Daniel Brebner $2,500
10. James DiGeorgia $2,500
11. Peter Hambro $2,500 (by 2012)
12. Charles Nenner $2,500 (by 2012-13)

Grand Total: 133

Conclusion

There you have it. Who would have believed that 133 distinguished analysts would maintain that
gold and by implication, silver, are likely to achieve such lofty levels as a result of the effects of our
current financially troubled and volatile times? Their rationale is varied but each is sound in its
own right.

If we are to put any credence whatsoever into the rationale presented by the above analysts then it seems
prudent to seriously consider owning some physical gold and silver and/or the stocks and/or long-term
warrants of those companies that mine these precious metals.

Gold Holdings by Exchange-Traded Funds as of Sept. 14’2011 – in troy ounces @ US$

Following is a table detailing known gold holdings by exchange-traded funds

Current --Daily Change-- --Monthly Change-- Last
Ounces Ounces % Ounces % Update
================================================================================
Worldwide 69,107,913 14,952 0.0% -953,200 -1.4% n/a
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPDR 39,909,403 0 0.0% -606,427 -1.5% 9/14/2011
ETF Securities 9,834,562 -2,124 0.0% -70,627 -0.7% 9/14/2011
ZKB 6,564,991 0 0.0% -2,499 0.0% 9/2/2011
iShares 5,420,349 17,076 0.3% 68,204 1.3% 9/13/2011
Swiss & Global 3,263,792 0 0.0% -277,839 -7.8% 9/12/2011
Central Fund CA 1,694,644 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 9/14/2011
NewGold 1,455,747 0 0.0% -66,672 -4.4% 9/12/2011
Central GoldTrust 610,832 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 9/14/2011
Claymore 348,593 0 0.0% 2,660 0.8% 9/13/2011
Dubai 5,000 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 9/14/2011


Shamik Bhose

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director

================================================================================
----Yearly Change---- Fund holdings as a percent
Ounces % of total gold held in ETFs:
================================================================================
Worldwide 2,259,710 3.4% 100.0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPDR -1,845,027 -4.4% 57.7%
ETF Securities 327,072 3.4% 14.2%
ZKB 807,478 14.0% 9.5%
iShares 2,293,366 73.3% 7.8%
Swiss & Global 587,396 21.9% 4.7%
Central Fund CA 190,410 12.7% 2.5%
NewGold -99,650 -6.4% 2.1%
Central GoldTrust 0 0.0% 0.9%
Claymore -1,335 -0.4% 0.5%
Dubai 0 0.0% 0.0%
================================================================================
NOTE: Figures are in troy ounces.

Shamik Bhose
Executive Director
Www.microsec.in ; www.commoditylive.in
Phones 009133-30512100 / 30512139 -40
Fax 009133 -30512020



Shamik Bhose

Shamik Gold Standard & Reasons 2011 Sept

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