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“It is change, continuing change, inevitable change,
   that is the dominant factor in society today. No
 sensible decision can be made any longer without
 taking into account not only the world as it is, but
        the world as it will be....” Isaac Asimov

                                      Seth Kaplan
     Vice President for Policy and Climate Advocacy Conservation Law Foundation
                                  Beacon Hill Seminars
                                   February 12, 2012

                                                                          1
Energy Resources Rise & Fall: The Story of Whale Oil




     Source: PRICE TRENDS OVER A COMPLETE HUBBERT CYCLE: THE CASE OF
     THE AMERICAN WHALING INDUSTRY IN 19th CENTURY, Ugo Bardi,         2
     Dipartimento di Chimica - Università di Firenze (2004)
The Story from Hawaii: The undeniable “Keeling Curve”




                                                        3
The Electricity Grid of the past . . . and the future




Edison’s
Pearl
Street
Station
Photographic
Services of the
Consolidated
Edison Company of
New York, Inc.


                    Graphic courtesy of Alan Friefeld of Viridity Energy        4
The History of US Energy use in one slide




                                                                               5
Source: The Encyclopedia of Earth, Energy Transitions Past and Future, 2008.
Energy Sources and Uses: U.S. Edition




                                        6
Energy Sources and Uses: Massachusetts Edition




                                                 7
Climate: The New Imperative, lessons from Europe about sectors

          EU-27 total GHG emissions                                                                                         Within
                                                                           Sector               Abatement                                  Fuel shift
          GtCO2e per year                                                                                                  sector1, 2

             5.9
                                                                           Power                   95% to 100%             >95%
                                 5.3       5.4
                       5.2
                                                                           Road                   95%                      20%            75% (electric
                                                                         transport                                                      vehicles, biofuels
                                 1.2       1.2
                       1.2                                                                                                               and fuel cells)
                                                    -80%                 Air & sea              50%                        30%           20% (biofuels)
                                 0.9       1.0                           transport
                       0.9

                       0.5       0.6       0.7                            Industry                 40%                35% (CCS3)         5% (heat pumps)

                       1.1       1.0       1.0                           Buildings                 95%                45% (efficiency   50% (heat pumps)
                                                     1.2 0.1                                                          and new builds)
                       0.9       0.9       0.9       0.4 0.1

                       0.2                           0.6 0.1               Waste                    100%                   100%
                                 0.3         0.3
                       0.5       0.4      0.3             0.2
                                                                        Agriculture                 20%                    20%
                                                     -0.3
            1990      2010      2030      2050      2050                  Forestry         -0.25 GtCO2e              Carbon sinks
                                                    abated

1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve
2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline
3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)

SOURCE: European Climate Foundation                                                                                                                          8
The case for Efficiency and Renewable Energy

       Emissions Reduction – Public Health         Water Use/Discharge

                                      Environmental            Climate: electricity is
                                                               the “hinge” sector
 Diversification /Reliability
 Japan shows wind can
 help keep the lights on                            Every place has indigenous renewable &
                                                    demand resources (unlike fossil fuels)
                   Electric
                   System                                           Economic
                   Benefits                              Self sufficiency, independence,
Zero fuel cost resources – price stability               it’s not just about rates – no one
                                                         really pays a rate

                                                          Jobs, attract employers, jobs, local
              Popularity matters (or                      property taxes, jobs and of course jobs
              should) in a democracy         Political


                                                                                              9
The Question from Copenhagen: Is there reason for hope?




                                                          10

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The Story of Energy Transitions from Whale Oil to Renewables

  • 1. “It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be....” Isaac Asimov Seth Kaplan Vice President for Policy and Climate Advocacy Conservation Law Foundation Beacon Hill Seminars February 12, 2012 1
  • 2. Energy Resources Rise & Fall: The Story of Whale Oil Source: PRICE TRENDS OVER A COMPLETE HUBBERT CYCLE: THE CASE OF THE AMERICAN WHALING INDUSTRY IN 19th CENTURY, Ugo Bardi, 2 Dipartimento di Chimica - Università di Firenze (2004)
  • 3. The Story from Hawaii: The undeniable “Keeling Curve” 3
  • 4. The Electricity Grid of the past . . . and the future Edison’s Pearl Street Station Photographic Services of the Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. Graphic courtesy of Alan Friefeld of Viridity Energy 4
  • 5. The History of US Energy use in one slide 5 Source: The Encyclopedia of Earth, Energy Transitions Past and Future, 2008.
  • 6. Energy Sources and Uses: U.S. Edition 6
  • 7. Energy Sources and Uses: Massachusetts Edition 7
  • 8. Climate: The New Imperative, lessons from Europe about sectors EU-27 total GHG emissions Within Sector Abatement Fuel shift GtCO2e per year sector1, 2 5.9 Power 95% to 100% >95% 5.3 5.4 5.2 Road 95% 20% 75% (electric transport vehicles, biofuels 1.2 1.2 1.2 and fuel cells) -80% Air & sea 50% 30% 20% (biofuels) 0.9 1.0 transport 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 Industry 40% 35% (CCS3) 5% (heat pumps) 1.1 1.0 1.0 Buildings 95% 45% (efficiency 50% (heat pumps) 1.2 0.1 and new builds) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 Waste 100% 100% 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Agriculture 20% 20% -0.3 1990 2010 2030 2050 2050 Forestry -0.25 GtCO2e Carbon sinks abated 1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve 2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline 3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries) SOURCE: European Climate Foundation 8
  • 9. The case for Efficiency and Renewable Energy Emissions Reduction – Public Health Water Use/Discharge Environmental Climate: electricity is the “hinge” sector Diversification /Reliability Japan shows wind can help keep the lights on Every place has indigenous renewable & demand resources (unlike fossil fuels) Electric System Economic Benefits Self sufficiency, independence, Zero fuel cost resources – price stability it’s not just about rates – no one really pays a rate Jobs, attract employers, jobs, local Popularity matters (or property taxes, jobs and of course jobs should) in a democracy Political 9
  • 10. The Question from Copenhagen: Is there reason for hope? 10