שינויי האקלים זה לא משהוא רחוק אלא משפיע כאן ועכשיו
המצגת מתארת את הנושאים הבסיסיים של שינויי האקלים ותוך כדי יכך עונה לרוב הטענות של מכחישיי האקלים
שינוי אקלים שינויי אקלים השפעות שינויי האקלים
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השחור הפרפר אפקט
נדידת :ל באביב הטמפרטורה בין לקשר מגרמניה דוגמה החי עולם על גם משפיעה התחממות
-כ למעשה העלים והנצת הגוזלים בקיעת הצפורים90%אשר שינויי מראות אשר בטבע מהתופעות
הצפויי את תואם השינויי האקלים לשינויי קשור להיות יכול
Of the more than 29,000 observational data series, from 75 studies, that show significant change in many
physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a
response to warming
Anomalies of phenological phases in Germany correlate with anomalies of mean spring air temp T & NAO index
Phenological phases: spring arrival in birds, island of Helgoland, North Sea;
hatching in ycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), Northern Germany;̄
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השחור הפרפר אפקט-ה של האנטרופוגניות הפליטות הגיעו לאןCO2
בשנים(2000-2009)
1.1±0.7 PgC y-1 +
7.7±0.5 PgC y-1
4.1±0.1 PgC y-1
47%
2.4 PgC y-1
27%
Calculated as the residual of
all other flux components
26%
2.3±0.4 PgC y-1
Average of 5 models
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
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השחור הפרפר אפקטAtmospheric CO2 Concentration
Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2009: 1.9 ppm y-1
2009 1.62
2008 1.80
2007 2.14
2006 1.84
2005 2.39
2004 1.60
2003 2.19
2002 2.40
2001 1.89
2000 1.22
December 2009: 387.2 ppm
September 2010 (preliminary): 389.2 ppm
39% above pre-industrial
Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1
)
GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
November2010
PartsPerMillion(ppm)
390
388
386
384
382
380
378
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השחור הפרפר אפקטהיחסC13/C12מעדיפים צמחיםC12בכל לכן
של יותר נמוך אחוז יש המאובן הדלקC12
Figure 2: Annual global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture in GtC yr?1 (black), annual averages of the
13C/12C ratio measured in atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa from 1981 to 2002 (red). ). The isotope data are expressed as
13C(CO2) ‰ (per mil) deviation from a calibration standard. Note that this scale is inverted to improve clarity. (IPCC AR4)
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השחור הפרפר אפקט
מצרים לדוגמה :המשמעות
BBC News - World food prices at fresh high, says UN
This is because wildfires last year in Russia, which accounts for 11% of
global exports, resulted in an export ban, the institute's director of
markets, trade and institutions, Maximo Torero, told the BBC
The recent floods in Australia, which also accounts for 11% of global
exports, has compounded the problem, he said
Droughts in Argentina, the world's second biggest exporter of corn behind
the US, have also pushed the price up, Mr Torero said.
July 31, 2010 -- Dry grass burns near the town of Voronezh, some 294 miles south of Moscow. The drought-driven fires have spread quickly across more than 200,000 acres in
recent days in the midst of a record heat wave and severe drought that have plagued Russia for weeks. Read More
The annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 was 1.6 ppm in 2009, below the average for the period 2000-2008 of 1.9 ppm per year (ppm = parts per million). The mean growth rate for the previous 20 years was about 1.5 ppm per year. This increase brought the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 387 ppm by the end of 2009, 39% above the concentration at the start of the industrial revolution (about 280 ppm in 1750). The present concentration is the highest during at least the last 2 million years.
The increase in atmospheric CO2 of 3.4±0.1 Pg C yr−1 in 2009 was among the lowest since 2000. This cannot be explained by the decrease in CO2 emissions alone but is mainly caused by an increase in the land and ocean CO2 sinks in response to the tail of the La Niña event that perturbed the global climate system from mid 2007 until early 2009.
Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. The estimated uncertainty in the global annual mean growth rate is 0.07 ppm/yr. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory.