Strategie grains

Nineteenth year - No 221 / 12 May 2011 - English version
© 2011 Tallage SAS. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, photocopied, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by
any means, nor otherwise circulated without the prior consent of the publisher. Action will be taken against any person, company or organisation infringing copyright.
The next issue of Stratégie grains will be available on 16 June 2011
stratégiegrains®
strategie-grains.com
soft wheat 2010/11 2011/12
July-June asof
13/04/11
as of
11/05/11
carry-instock 13.4 8.6 8.7
production 126.4 135.2 131.5
imports 2.3 3.9 3.8
domesticuse 114.3 118.5 117.1
exports 19.1 19.0 16.8
freecarry-outstock 8.7 10.2 10.1
interv.stock
carry-outstock 8.7 10.2 10.1
surplus/requiredstock -1.9 -0.7 -0.7
barley 2010/11 2011/12
July-June asof
13/04/11
as of
11/05/11
production 52.9 54.5 54.2
imports 0.2 0.2
domesticuse 55.3 53.9 53.9
exports 5.0 3.4 3.0
interv.stock 0.5 0.5 0.2
surplus/requiredstock 2.5 0.1 0.5
maize 2010/11 2011/12
October-Sept. asof
13/04/11
as of
11/05/11
ofwhicholdcropmaize 4.0 3.8 3.6
production 54.9 59.5 59.1
imports 6.8 4.6 4.8
domesticuse 61.1 64.5 63.7
exports 1.0 1.0 1.0
stockintervention
harvestbefore1Oct 2.3 2.3 2.3
surplus/requiredstock 1.6 0.0 0.6
Monthly summary 3
European Union wheat,barley and maize output
6
Crop year 2011/12 6
Crop year 2010/11 13
Cereal consumption in the animal feed sector
14
EU27 Industrial feed production 14
Breakdown of raw material consumption in animal
feeds in 2011/12 15
Breakdown of raw material consumption in animal
feeds in 2010/11 16
European Union wheat balances 19
Supply and internal demand 20
Price comparison between the different origins
dated 6/05/2011 23
Intra-EU wheat trade 24
World wheat market 26
Analysis of ending stocks and conclusion 32
European Union barley balances 33
Intra-EU barley trade 38
World barley market 38
Analysis of ending stocks and conclusion 42
European Union maize balances 45
Intra-EU maize trade 49
World maize market 51
Analysis of ending stock and conclusion 53

S t r a t é g i e g r a i n s 2 2 1 - 1 2 M a y 2 0 1 1
graphs and tables
Graphs
Tables
2
Table1.1:area,yieldsandproductionforwheat,barleyandmaize 7
Table1.2:EuropeanUnioncerealproduction2008/09-2011/12(EU27) 8
Table1.3:changesinareaforthemaincrops(EU27) 8
Table1.4:SSPandFranceAgriMerestimatesforcropproductionsinFrance 10
Source:SSPdated5May;FranceAgriMerdated11May2011 10
Tableau1.5:estimatesforpercentageoftotalwheatproductionmeetingcriteriaformillingineachEUcountry(cropyears2008/09,2009/10and
2010/11) 13
Table2.1:changesinEU27industrialcompoundfeedproductionbycountry 14
Table2.2:factorydeliveredpricesforthemainrawmaterials(deliveredBrittany, €/t,wholeprices) 15
Table2.3:factorydeliveredpricesinCatalonia,Spain(€/t) 16
Graphic2.4:elasticityofdemandforgrainsinresponsetopricemovementsinSpain,2011/12(comparisonagainstlastmonth) 17
Table2.4:tonnageofthemainrawmaterialsusedinindustrialfeedsandon-farm(EU27)
Table2.5:wheat,barleyandmaizeconsumptioninEUanimalfeeds–industrialandon-farm(Mt)
Table3.1:breakdownofEU27importsbycountryoforigin 20
Table3.2:EU27wheatbalanceJuly/June2011/12(kt) 21
Table3.3:EU27wheatbalanceJuly/June2010/11(kt) 22
Table3.4:wheatpricesinvariousEUcountriesasof06/05/2011 24
Table3.5:spreadsbetweenFrenchandUKwheatpricesdated06/05/2011,deliveredItalyandSpain 24
Table3.6:intra-EU27wheattrade2011/12(kt) 25
Table3.7:intra-EU27wheattrade2010/11(kt) 25
Table3.8:FOBpricesofmajorworldwheatoriginsasof06/05/2011 26
Table3.9:worldwheatbalance(softanddurum) 28
Table3.10:estimatedRussian,UkrainianandKazakhstanwheatbalances 28
Table3.12:worldwheatbalance(softanddurum)formainexportingcountries 29
Table3.11: worldimportrequirementsforsoftwheat(excludingproducts)andprojectedexports– Mt—July-June 31
Table3.13:EU27wheat(grain)exporttothirdcountriesbymaindestinations 31
Table3.14:comparisonsofnewcropopenmarketandinterventionprices(06/05/2011) 32
Table4.1:estimatedEUmaltingbarleyproduction(2011/12and2010/11) 34
Table4.2:EU27barleybalanceJuly-June2011/12(kt) 35
Table4.3:EU27barleybalanceJuly-June2010/11(kt) 36
Table4.4:forecastforresaleofinterventionbarleyin2010/11(kt) 37
Table4.5:intra-EU27barleytrade2011/12(kt) 39
Table4.6:intra-EU27barleytrade2010/11(kt) 39
Table4.7:estimatedsupplyanddemandbalancesheetsforthemainimportingcountries 40
Table4.8:worldbarleybalance 40
Table4.9:changesinexportavailabilitiesandimportrequirementsforthemainbarleytradingcountries 40
Table4.10:EU27barleyexportsontheworldmarkettomainthirdcountrydestinations 41
Table4.11:EUbarleyinterventionstockasof06/05/2011 42
Graphic1.1:rainfallvolumesinSpain(mm)inApril 9
Graphic2.1:soymealprices 15
Graphic2.2:soya/wheatpriceratioinFrance 15
Graphic2.3:elasticityofdemandforgrainsinresponsetomaizepricemovementsinFrance,2011/12 (comparisonagainstlastmonth) 17
Graphic3.1:changesinGerman,UKandFrenchwheatprices 23
Graphic3.2:changeinworldwheatpricesonaper-monthbasis(FOBmainoriginsinUS $/t) 27
Graphic3.3:wheatfuturesattheChicagoBoardofTrade 29
Graphic3.4:changesinworldwheatstocks(includingdurumwheat) 30
Graphic4.1:worldbarleyandmaizeprices(FOBmainoriginsinUS$/t) 40
Graphic4.2:wintermaltingbarleypricesinFranceandpremiumsoverfeedbarleyprices 44
Graphic4.3:springmaltingbarleypricesinFranceandpremiumsoverfeedbarleyprices 44
Graphic5.1:Americanmaizeprices(FOBGulf) 51
Graphic5.2:Frenchmaizeprices(€/t) 54

monthly summary
Monthly summary
3
Production
EU cereal harvests revised down
Cropyear2011/12
There has been very little rainfall since last
month in most European countries and
yield potentials for wheat and barley in sev-
eral countries have already been impacted.
Our forecast for total grain production in
the EU therefore decreases by 5.1 Mt this
month to 284.7 Mt (compared with 274
Mt in 2010/11).
EU soft wheat production registers the
largest reduction, dropping 3.6 Mt since
last month to 131.5 Mt. This is neverthe-
less still larger than last year’s wheat har-
vest (126.4 Mt). West EU countries are
the worst affected by the deterioration in
yield potentials (- 3 Mt), whilst the central
European countries have fared better (- 0.3
Mt). We now know the extent of winter-
kill in Lithuania, and wheat production is
therefore revised down by 0.3 Mt, with the
corresponding area reallocated to spring
crops.
EU barley production is revised down by
0.3 Mt this month to 54.2 Mt (compared
with 52.9 Mt in 2010/11). At the EU level,
the reduction is small because a sharp de-
cline in the west EU countries (- 0.9 Mt)
is mostly offset by a rise in estimated pro-
duction in Spain (+ 0.4 Mt thanks to good
rainfall levels in April) and by a sharp rise
for spring barley production in the Baltic
countries (+ 0.3 Mt).
EU maize grain production is revised
down by 0.4 Mt this month to 59.1 Mt
(compared with 54.9 Mt in 2010/11) re-
flecting adjustments to crop area forecasts.
French maize production is revsied down
by 0.6 Mt whilst production in the central
and southeast EU countries is revised up
slightly (+ 0.2 Mt).
Lastly, we estimate durum wheat produc-
tionat8.3Mt,down0.1Mtsincelastmonth
(compared with 9.1 Mt in 2010/11).
Cropyear2010/11
Total grain production 2010/11 in the
EU is revised up by 0.4 Mt this month to
274Mt(lastyear:291.8Mt).Thisriseisex-
plained by a 0.4 Mt increase in soft wheat
production to 126.4 Mt (last year: 129.1
Mt), reflecting adjustments for Latvia,
Belgium and Romania.
Barleyproductionisunchangedat52.9Mt
(last year: 61.8 Mt).
Maize grain production is revised up by
0.08 Mt this month to 54.9 Mt (last year:
57.4 Mt).
EU animal feeds
New increase for EU industrial feed production but reduction in demand for ce-
reals
Cropyear2010/11
Industrial feed output is revised up by 0.4
Mt this month to 137.9 Mt, reflecting the
inclusion of the latest data from Germany
in our forecasting.
Estimated demand for cereals is revised up
by 1 Mt this month but remains forecast
significantly lower than in 2009/10 (-5.4
Mt).
Cropyear2011/12
Estimated feed output in 2011/12 in-
creasesinlinewiththismonth’schangesfor
2010/11.Itissettoremainatasimilarlevel
to2010/11.Bycontrast,estimatedgrainus-
age in animal feeds is forecast to decline in
line with this month’s reductions to harvest
estimates and hence availabilities for on-
farm grain usage. The downward correc-
tion concerns wheat and maize.
Table4.12:EUbarleypricesasof06/05/2011 42
Table4.13:comparisonofthemaltingbarleysituationin2011/12withsituationsfrom2006/07to2010/11 43
Table5.1:EU27maizebalancesbycountry(kt):October-September2011/12 46
Table5.2:EU27maizebalancesbycountry(kt):October-September2010/11 47
Table5.3:breakdownofEU27imports(byorigin) 48
Table5.6:spreadbetweenmaizeandwheatpricesinFrance 49
Table5.4:intra-EU27maizetradeOctober-September2011/12(kt) 50
Table5.5:intra-EU27maizetradeOctober-September2010/11(kt) 50
Table5.7:USandworldmaizebalancesheets(Mt) 51
Table5.8:maizebalancesheetsforArgentinaandBrazil 52
Table5.9:maizebalancesheetsforRussiaandUkraine(Mt) 52
Table5.10:maizebalancesheetsforChinaandSouthAfrica(Mt) 52
Table5.11:changesinexportavailabilitiesandimportrequirementsformaincountries 52
Table5.12:MaizepricesintheEUasof7/05/2011 53
Table5.13:FrenchandSpanishmaizebalances–July-Junecropyears–for2009/2010,2010/11,2011/12 54
Table5.14:breakdownofEU27maizeinterventionstocksasof7/05/2011(kt) 54

monthly summary
4
EU wheat
EU wheat stock not set to rise greatly in 2011/12 – outlook for prices essential-
ly bullish but movements will hinge on export policies in Russia and Ukraine
Cropyear2010/11
EU wheat production in 2010 is revised
up by 0.4 Mt although wheat imports fall
by 0.3 Mt. Internal demand is revised up by
0.4 Mt (increase in demand in animal feeds
offset by a reduction in milling); wheat ex-
portsontheworldmarketarereviseddown
by0.3Mtthismonthto19.1Mt.EUwheat
stock on June 30 2011 therefore remains at
a similar level to last month at between 8.5
and 9 Mt, which is almost 2 Mt less than
the minimum stock required (to comfort-
ably supply the market from June 30 until
the next harvest comes in). The situation
remains particularly tight in France, UK,
Central Europe (Hungary and Poland)
and southeast Europe (Romania/Bulgaria).
Germany’s balance has tightened since last
month.
After the upward price movements seen at
the beginning of May, this low stock fore-
cast should prevent old crop prices fall-
ing sharply even though the likelihood of
Russia’s and Ukraine’s early return to the
market has increased.
Cropyear2011/12
EU wheat production in 2011 falls sharply
thismonthto131.5Mt(-3.6Mt)duetothe
impactofthedroughtinthewestEUcoun-
tries and to winterkill losses in Lithuania
andPoland.Consequently,projectedwheat
usage in on-farm animal feeds falls sharply
(-1.3 Mt) but demand for wheat in animal
feedsisstillforecasthigherthanin2010/11
(with demand captured from other grains).
Demand for human consumption and in-
dustrialusageisalsosettobehigherthanin
2010/11 (mainly biofuels sector) although
this forecast has not altered significantly
since last month.
Intra-EU wheat trade is forecast to rise in
2011/12 on account of higher internal
demand (Netherlands mainly). Import
volumes are set to fall sharply compared
with the levels of 2010/11 in Germany and
France (assuming that grain quality is in
linewiththenorminGermany).UKwheat
remains much more competitive than
French wheat for export to the south EU
export destinations; meanwhile south-east
EUwheatiscompetitiveagainstUKwheat
(and much cheaper than French wheat) for
the south EU.
Weestimatethatwheatstocksontheworld
market on July 1 2011 will be 20 Mt less
than at the start of 2010/11. Global pro-
duction is forecast to increase by 28 Mt but
our estimate has decreased sharply since
last month due to the drought in the EU,
delays to plantings in the northern USA
and, to a smaller extent in the Black Sea
countries. World demand is still forecast
high (690 Mt) due to the projected rise
in demand for feed wheat at the expense
of maize. Global wheat stocks at the end
of 2011/12 will therefore decline slightly.
World wheat trade in 2011/12 is set to be
higher than in 2010/11 due to reduced
production in the Middle East and higher
animal sector demand in Asia. In this con-
text, we still envisage that the world market
will require the totality of the EU’s export
availability despite the combined 14 Mt in-
crease in the availabilities in the Black Sea
countries (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan).
Since last month we have reduced our fore-
cast for EU wheat availability and we now
forecast exports at barely 17 Mt. With this
level of exports, the outlook for EU wheat
is not heavy and stocks will remain low at
the end of 2011/12. Generally speaking,
this situation should support new crop EU
wheat prices, which are much cheaper than
US prices. The fact that the outlook on the
world market is fairly tight with relatively
low stock forecasts is a second support
factor. Nevertheless, wheat prices in the
EU could still be momentarily influenced
downwards when Russia and Ukraine re-
sume exports in the summer.
EU barley
Rather heavy situation for end-2010/11 but much tighter outlook for 2011/12,
despite a reduction for projected exports
Cropyear2010/11
Little change this month for production,
importsandexports.Demandforbarleyfor
human consumption and industrial usage
has been revised down this month, whilst
projected barley usage in animal feeds in-
creases.
AsofMay6,2.5Mtofbarleyhadbeensold
from intervention via traditional tender-
ing (out of total estimated sales by June 30,
2011of2.7Mt)and1.6Mtviathefoodaid
programme (out of total estimated sales of
2.2 Mt by June 30, 2011).
The volume of intra-EU barley trade is es-
timated up to 10 Mt to take account of the
latest customs statistics.
We now estimate a barley surplus of 2.5 Mt
(over the level of stock required to com-
fortably supply the market until the next
harvest arrives) on June 30, 2011, mainly
splitbetweenGermany,FranceandPoland.
This should exert downward pressure on
old crop prices.
Cropyear2011/12
EUbarleyproductionin2011/12isrevised
down by 0.3 Mt this month to 54.2 Mt,
which is 1 Mt more than in 2010. The re-
ductionsincelastmonthreflectstheimpact
of the dry weather on barley yields. We es-
timate malting barley production at 11 Mt
(up from 10 Mt in 2010/11).
Demand for barley for human consump-
tion and industrial usage should slightly
increase to 11.4 Mt reflecting increased
demandfor maltingbarleyand ona smaller
scale, increased demand for barley in bio-
ethanol production.
Demand for barley in animal feeds is set to
fall by 1.7 Mt in 2011/12 to 39.1 Mt; the
decline is due to barley’s less competitive
position in industrial feeds (demand trans-
ferred to wheat and maize).

monthly summary
5
Intra-EU barley trade is set to be sharply
down on the level of 2010/11, due to high-
er domestic availability in Spain and lower
projected animal sector demand in the
Benelux.
Wecurrentlyforecastthatworldbarleypro-
duction will increase by 11 Mt, which will
offset the reduction in stocks at the begin-
ningof2011/12.Consequently,withworld
demandsettoincreaseby5Mt,theoutlook
for the world barley market in 2011/12 is
tight. Barley trade on the world market is
set to remain close to the level of 2010/11
at14.6Mt.Thismonthwepublishourfirst
breakdown of estimated EU exports on the
world market by destination countries; we
estimate total EU exports at 3 Mt (down
from 5 Mt in 2010/11). This level repre-
sents almost all the EU’s exportable surplus
(estimated at 3.5 Mt).
Hence EU barley supply and demand in
2011/12 is already looking set to balance,
except in the east EU countries. This out-
look is neutral in terms of new crop barley
prices. The reduction in world demand
addressed to the EU (due to the rise in
Ukrainian availabilities) will be one of the
most important factors in terms of limiting
the increase potential for EU barley prices.
On the other hand, prices have little poten-
tial for decrease due to the tight (or at least
finely balanced) outlooks for EU wheat
and maize supply and demand.
Malting barley production is still forecast 1
Mt up on the level of 2010. However, if the
dry conditions persist, barley yields could
face further reductions and quality could
also be affected. The outlook for malting
barley in 2011/12 is therefore set to be
tighter than in 2010/11.
The malting barley premiums have in-
creased sharply since last month, reflecting
concerns over the lack of rainfall in recent
weeks. The premiums are now high and
will have little potential for decrease until
rains return.
EU maize
Outlook for 2010/11 remains heavy whilst supply and demand are close to bal-
ance for 2011/12 (small surplus); tight world market will support prices
Cropyear2010/11
Maize imports are revised down by 0.3 Mt
this month to 6.75 Mt, reflecting the fact
that imported maize remains uncompeti-
tive through the last months of crop year
2010/11; Ukrainian maize is the only ori-
gin that is competitive in the EU over this
period, and only for south EU import des-
tinations. In addition, the risk of trace pres-
ence of a GM variety not yet authorised in
the EU will restrict the volume of imports
from Brazil until August.
Demand for maize in the bioethanol sector
is revised up a little this month (+0.15 Mt).
Demand for maize in animal feeds is re-
vised down by 0.3 Mt. Projected EU maize
stock on September 30 2011 therefore de-
creases slightly this month but the EU bal-
ancesheetstillhasapotentialmaizesurplus
of 1.6 Mt.
The outlook for EU maize therefore re-
mains intrinsically bearish. However, the
situation on the world market is still ex-
tremely tight for 2010/11 and 2011/12
(feed demand currently allotted to maize
on the world will need to be rationed and
transfer to other grains). If world prices rise
from their current levels, imported maize
willbecome lessattractivein theEU, which
wouldallowtheEUmarkettotightenwith-
out a corresponding need for EU prices to
decrease significantly. Nevertheless barley
intervention stocks will continue to be re-
leased onto the internal market generating
possible downward pressure on EU maize
prices.
Cropyear2011/12
Despite a reduction to estimated French
maize production this month, we still en-
visage that the EU’s maize harvest in 2011
will be significantly better than in 2010
(+4.2 Mt to 59.1 Mt). Imports from third
countries are forecast to fall by 2 Mt to 4.8
Mt due to the less competitive position of
imported third country maize compared
with 2010/11 (based on current prices for
November 2011 deliveries). Internal de-
mand for maize in the EU is still forecast
up by 2.7 Mt compared with 2010/11.
Animal sector demand is forecast up by 2.4
Mt, mostly on account of increased maize
usage in on-farm feeds and of demand for
human consumption and industrial usage
(up by 0.3 Mt). EU maize stock is forecast
todecreaseby1Mtthrough2011/12to5.1
Mt; this level is significantly greater (+0.6
Mt) than the minimum stock needed to
comfortably supply the market until the
next harvest arrives.
Maize stocks on the world market are fore-
cast to rise by 6 Mt in 2011/12 to 115 Mt.
However, at this stage, this increase cannot
be taken completely for granted because it
will depend on a significant rise in produc-
tion (+44 Mt to 850 Mt), and at present
maize plantings in the USA are badly be-
hind schedule; this could mean that esti-
mated maize area will need to be reduced
if conditions are not ideal for plantings
during the next few weeks. Ending stock
2011/12 is currently estimated at 13%
of annual global demand, which remains
relatively low. Even though rationing of de-
mand in animal feeds (over to feed wheat)
has already begun, it has not happened to a
sufficientextenttoenableworldsupplyand
demand to balance. New crop maize prices
therefore have no potential for decrease
until harvest outcomes are certain. On the
contrarytheystillhaveanincreasepotential
in order to generate further reductions in
demand; this will be intensified if plantings
in the USA do not match current forecasts.
At present new maize prices in the EU are
cheaper than new crop prices. However,
the outlook in 2011/12 is now much less
heavy than the situation in 2010/11: this
price differential should therefore narrow,
either via a decrease in old crop prices or an
increaseinnewcropprices.Thelattercould
be emphasized by the tight situation on the
world market. However, if farmers planting
intentions in the USA have been fully at-
tained by mid-June and the crops develop
correctly in Ukraine and Russia, this would
generate a less tight outlook for 2011/12,
which could allow for a reduction in 2011-
crop prices.

european union wheat, barley and maize output
European Union wheat,barley and maize output
6
Soft Wheat (Mt)
EU 27
Barley (Mt
EU 27
Maize (Mt)
EU 27
129,1
126,4
131,5
2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
61,8
52,9 54,2
2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
57,4
54,9
59,1
2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
Crop year 2011/12
There has been very little rainfall since last month in
most European countries and yield potentials for wheat
and barley in several countries have already been
impacted.
Our forecast for total grain production in the EU
therefore decreases by 5.1 Mt this month to 284.7 Mt
(compared with 274 Mt in 2010/11).
EU soft wheat production registers the largest reduction,
dropping 3.6 Mt since last month to 131.5 Mt. This is
nevertheless still larger than last year’s wheat harvest
(126.4 Mt). West EU countries are the worst affected by
the deterioration in yield potentials (- 3 Mt), whilst the
central European countries have fared better (- 0.3 Mt).
We now know the extent of winterkill in Lithuania, and
wheat production is therefore revised down by 0.3 Mt,
with the corresponding area reallocated to spring crops.
EU barley production is revised down by 0.3 Mt this
month to 54.2 Mt (compared with 52.9 Mt in 2010/11).
At the EU level, the reduction is small because a sharp
decline in the west EU countries (- 0.9 Mt) is mostly
offset by a rise in estimated production in Spain (+ 0.4
Mt thanks to good rainfall levels in April) and by a sharp
rise for spring barley production in the Baltic countries (+
0.3 Mt).
EU maize grain production is revised down by 0.4 Mt
this month to 59.1 Mt (compared with 54.9 Mt in 2010/11)
reflecting adjustments to crop area forecasts. French
maize production is revsied down by 0.6 Mt whilst
production in the central and southeast EU countries is
revised up slightly (+ 0.2 Mt).
Lastly, we estimate durum wheat production at 8.3 Mt,
down 0.1 Mt since last month (compared with 9.1 Mt in
2010/11).
Crop year 2010/11
Total grain production 2010/11 in the EU is revised up
by 0.4 Mt this month to 274 Mt (last year: 291.8 Mt).
This rise is explained by a 0.4 Mt increase in soft wheat
production to 126.4 Mt (last year: 129.1 Mt), reflecting
adjustments for Latvia, Belgium and Romania.
Barley production is unchanged at 52.9 Mt (last year:
61.8 Mt).
Maize grain production is revised up by 0.08 Mt this
month to 54.9 Mt (last year: 57.4 Mt).
Crop year 2011/12
Droughtpersist–rainisnowindispensable
In the last issue of Stratégie grains (SG 220), we
highlightedhowdryMarchhadbeenthroughout
mostofEuropeandthatrainswereurgentlyneeded
tomaintainwheatandbarleyyieldpotentials.As
thingsturnedout,therewasbarelyanyrainfallin
EuropeduringAprilorthebeginningofMay.The
rainthatdidfallwaslimitedtotheMediterranean-
rim countries and – to a lesser extent – Bulgaria
andRomania.AcrossmostoftheEU,cumulative
rainfallhasbeenatleast50%lessthantheseasonal
normforthistimeofyear.Somerainisexpectedin
Europebetweennowandmid-May;itwillneed
tobequitesignificanttoproviderespitefromthe
stresscurrentlyaffectingthegraincrops.
The wheat plants in the EU are mostly in the
extension phase and are rapidly approaching
ear formation and flowering, thanks to the high
temperatures. For most of the EU27 countries
(excepttheMediterraneanandBalkancountries),
the persistence of a rainfall deficit could mean
that plant biomass at flowering is smaller than
normal. This handicap is likely to be particularly
pronounced in west Europe, where wheat
development is the most far advanced and the
impact of drought stress is most severe. Any
handicaps facing the plants at the present time
can still be offset – at least in part – if weather
conditionsattheendofthegrowthcycleturnout
ideal(humidandcool,withnoexcessiverainfall).
By contrast, if the drought persists or if there is a
prolongedperiodofverywetweather(aswasthe
case in 2007), this could cause a sharp decline in
yieldpotentials.Weatherconditionsinthecoming
weekswillneedtobeverycloselymonitored.
Springbarleyplantingsarenowmostlycompleted
intheEU,exceptinthenortherlyregions(suchas
Finland)wheretheyarestilltakingplace.Generally
speaking, the warm, dry weather has been
favourabletoaquickcompletionofspringbarley
plantings.Plantemergencehasmostlyhappened
veryquicklyandtheyoungplantsnowneedwater.
Maize plantings have also progressed at a rapid

Thelatestupdatestoourestimatescanbeconsultedonwww.strategie-grains.com.Toaccessthisserviceyouwillneedtosubscribetothe«Crop»module.
7
wheat maize
Area(Mha) Yield(t/ha) Production(Mt) Area(Mha) Yield(t/ha) Production(Mt)08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
Germany 3.21 3.21 3.30 3.31 8.09 7.82 7.04 7.45 25.95 25.12 23.24 24.63 0.52 0.46 0.45 0.48 9.81 9.75 8.79 9.63 5.10 4.53 3.99 4.64
Belgium-Lux 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 8.16 8.87 8.56 8.40 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.02 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.07 11.89 12.07 11.95 12.32 0.86 0.81 0.75 0.82
Denmark 0.64 0.74 0.76 0.74 7.86 8.04 6.61 7.25 5.02 5.94 5.06 5.36
Spain 1.53 1.23 1.44 1.48 3.66 2.75 3.27 3.32 5.59 3.40 4.69 4.92 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.35 8.92 8.89 9.38 9.07 3.24 3.07 3.01 3.17
France 5.06 4.73 4.92 5.04 7.29 7.66 7.24 7.14 36.90 36.23 35.64 36.01 1.76 1.74 1.55 1.52 9.13 8.90 8.75 9.08 16.04 15.50 13.57 13.80
Greece 0.20 0.21 0.17 0.18 3.02 2.33 2.10 2.48 0.60 0.50 0.36 0.44 0.24 0.19 0.15 0.16 7.61 7.76 7.49 7.64 1.85 1.47 1.12 1.20
Ireland 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.09 9.06 8.12 8.75 8.95 0.95 0.67 0.64 0.78
Italy 0.70 0.61 0.62 0.62 5.38 5.05 5.34 5.29 3.74 3.10 3.32 3.27 1.09 1.00 0.90 0.97 9.52 8.61 9.00 9.06 10.36 8.62 8.11 8.82
TheNetherl. 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 8.73 9.29 8.86 8.61 1.37 1.40 1.36 1.23 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 11.80 12.78 11.76 11.00 0.35 0.34 0.28 0.26
Portugal 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.04 2.30 1.68 1.44 1.74 0.20 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.10 6.39 6.55 7.01 6.83 0.70 0.63 0.63 0.67
UnitedKingd. 2.08 1.78 1.94 2.01 8.28 7.93 7.67 7.84 17.23 14.08 14.88 15.74
Austria 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 5.80 5.07 5.12 5.20 1.58 1.43 1.41 1.47 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.21 11.32 10.83 9.72 10.80 2.45 2.17 1.96 2.30
Finland 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 3.64 4.10 3.43 3.83 0.79 0.89 0.72 0.85
Sweden 0.36 0.37 0.40 0.40 6.13 6.10 5.42 5.92 2.20 2.28 2.18 2.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.49 6.40 6.25 6.25 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Poland 2.28 2.35 2.41 2.42 4.07 4.11 3.77 3.92 9.27 9.64 9.08 9.49 0.32 0.27 0.30 0.33 5.81 6.23 5.76 6.14 1.84 1.71 1.73 2.02
Hungary 1.09 1.12 0.98 0.96 4.95 3.84 3.71 4.38 5.40 4.28 3.62 4.19 1.19 1.18 1.06 1.28 7.46 6.40 6.57 6.82 8.90 7.54 6.98 8.74
CzechRepublic 0.76 0.79 0.80 0.83 5.80 5.26 5.00 5.23 4.44 4.17 3.98 4.32 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.12 7.55 8.45 6.70 7.70 0.86 0.89 0.69 0.89
Slovakia 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.33 4.87 4.05 3.59 4.04 1.75 1.41 1.18 1.33 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.20 7.34 6.97 6.10 6.65 1.13 0.99 1.05 1.32
Estonia 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 3.18 3.01 2.71 3.01 0.34 0.34 0.32 0.39
Latvia 0.26 0.29 0.30 0.30 4.26 3.63 3.21 3.76 1.09 1.04 0.97 1.14
Lithuania 0.40 0.48 0.52 0.47 4.88 4.54 3.31 3.91 1.97 2.18 1.71 1.84 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 4.21 4.33 6.66 5.00 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.04
Slovenia 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 4.53 3.96 4.37 4.34 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 7.32 7.84 8.50 8.32 0.32 0.30 0.31 0.30
Cyprus/Malta 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 1.77 3.12 2.91 2.57 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
Romania 1.95 2.02 1.91 1.94 3.60 2.60 3.12 2.99 7.02 5.25 5.97 5.79 2.25 2.30 2.29 2.50 3.28 3.23 3.82 3.38 7.38 7.44 8.75 8.45
Bulgaria 1.07 1.09 1.01 1.07 4.16 3.25 3.74 3.53 4.46 3.53 3.79 3.79 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.33 3.80 4.37 6.05 4.92 1.22 1.33 1.96 1.64
EU25 20.15 19.44 20.04 20.25 6.38 6.19 5.82 6.02 128.49 120.36 116.61 121.97 6.23 5.88 5.43 5.85 8.67 8.27 8.14 8.37 54.04 48.59 44.22 49.00
EU27 23.17 22.54 22.97 23.26 6.04 5.73 5.50 5.66 139.98 129.13 126.37 131.55 8.80 8.48 8.05 8.68 7.12 6.76 6.83 6.80 62.63 57.36 54.93 59.09
barley
Area(Mha) Yield(t/ha) Production(Mt)
08/09
09/10
2010/11 2011/12
08/09
09/10
2010/11 2011/12
08/09
09/10
2010/11 2011/12
wint. spri. total wint. spri. total wint. spri. total wint. spri. total wint. spri. total wint. spri. total
Germany 1.96 1.88 1.30 0.35 1.65 1.23 0.35 1.57 6.10 6.54 6.56 4.84 6.20 6.34 4.83 6.01 11.97 12.29 8.55 1.69 10.25 7.78 1.67 9.45
Belgium-Lux 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.05 7.51 8.01 8.26 5.50 7.95 7.87 5.85 7.64 0.48 0.51 0.38 0.03 0.42 0.35 0.03 0.38
Denmark 0.72 0.59 0.14 0.43 0.57 0.13 0.50 0.63 4.73 5.72 5.47 5.13 5.21 5.55 5.13 5.22 3.40 3.39 0.79 2.20 2.99 0.74 2.56 3.29
Spain 3.49 3.05 0.45 2.42 2.87 0.49 2.57 3.05 3.19 2.33 2.78 2.88 2.87 2.89 3.02 3.00 11.11 7.11 1.25 6.98 8.23 1.41 7.77 9.17
France 1.80 1.88 1.16 0.42 1.58 1.09 0.44 1.54 6.76 6.84 6.51 6.07 6.39 6.48 6.23 6.41 12.17 12.88 7.56 2.54 10.10 7.10 2.77 9.87
Greece 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 2.85 2.33 1.98 1.98 2.40 2.40 0.33 0.28 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.25
Ireland 0.18 0.19 0.03 0.14 0.16 0.03 0.13 0.16 7.16 6.28 8.59 6.69 7.01 8.36 6.87 7.15 1.30 1.17 0.23 0.92 1.15 0.25 0.89 1.14
Italy 0.32 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 3.80 3.42 3.59 3.59 3.70 3.70 1.23 1.05 0.99 0.99 1.06 1.06
TheNetherl. 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.03 6.18 6.96 5.90 6.15 6.17 6.29 0.31 0.31 0.04 0.17 0.20 0.02 0.18 0.21
Portugal 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 2.32 1.70 1.83 1.83 2.05 2.05 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
UnitedKingd. 1.03 1.14 0.38 0.54 0.92 0.36 0.54 0.91 5.95 5.83 6.37 5.22 5.70 6.38 5.45 5.82 6.14 6.67 2.43 2.81 5.24 2.30 2.97 5.27
Austria 0.19 0.18 0.09 0.08 0.17 0.08 0.07 0.15 5.21 4.60 5.39 3.80 4.61 5.54 3.80 4.69 0.97 0.84 0.46 0.32 0.78 0.44 0.29 0.72
Finland 0.59 0.56 0.42 0.42 0.48 0.48 3.64 3.87 3.21 3.21 3.65 3.65 2.13 2.17 1.34 1.34 1.75 1.75
Sweden 0.40 0.36 0.02 0.29 0.31 0.01 0.33 0.34 4.23 4.69 4.69 3.98 4.03 5.47 4.28 4.33 1.67 1.68 0.08 1.14 1.23 0.08 1.41 1.49
Poland 1.21 1.16 0.21 0.91 1.12 0.17 0.93 1.10 3.00 3.44 3.92 3.00 3.17 3.84 3.11 3.22 3.62 3.98 0.81 2.73 3.54 0.65 2.89 3.54
Hungary 0.33 0.32 0.19 0.10 0.29 0.17 0.10 0.27 4.45 3.32 3.56 3.01 3.36 4.15 3.36 3.85 1.47 1.06 0.66 0.31 0.97 0.69 0.34 1.03
CzechRepublic 0.48 0.45 0.11 0.28 0.39 0.11 0.27 0.38 4.65 4.40 4.50 3.91 4.07 4.54 4.21 4.30 2.24 2.00 0.50 1.09 1.58 0.50 1.15 1.65
Slovakia 0.21 0.20 0.02 0.12 0.14 0.01 0.10 0.11 4.18 3.45 3.07 2.76 2.79 3.86 3.48 3.53 0.89 0.68 0.05 0.34 0.39 0.05 0.34 0.40
Estonia 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.12 0.12 2.56 2.68 2.41 2.41 2.60 2.60 0.35 0.38 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.30 0.30
Latvia 0.13 0.10 0.01 0.09 0.10 0.01 0.11 0.12 2.34 2.54 1.99 2.02 2.02 2.09 2.45 2.43 0.31 0.27 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.02 0.27 0.29
Lithuania 0.33 0.28 0.01 0.22 0.23 0.00 0.36 0.36 2.95 3.09 2.50 2.36 2.37 2.79 2.80 0.98 0.86 0.04 0.51 0.55 0.01 1.00 1.01
Slovenia 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 3.99 3.52 3.79 4.11 3.78 4.13 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.01 0.08
Cyprus/Malta 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 1.12 1.85 1.60 1.60 1.75 1.75 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Romania 0.39 0.52 0.34 0.18 0.52 0.27 0.18 0.45 3.07 2.28 2.99 1.66 2.54 2.78 1.91 2.44 1.21 1.18 1.02 0.30 1.32 0.76 0.33 1.10
Bulgaria 0.23 0.25 0.22 0.01 0.23 0.18 0.02 0.20 3.96 3.23 3.41 2.68 3.38 3.20 2.56 3.14 0.91 0.82 0.74 0.02 0.77 0.59 0.05 0.64
EU25 13.83 13.11 4.64 6.95 11.59 4.41 7.44 11.85 4.58 4.56 5.44 3.68 4.39 5.41 3.85 4.43 63.28 59.76 25.26 25.56 50.83 23.87 28.59 52.46
EU27 14.45 13.88 5.20 7.13 12.34 4.87 7.63 12.50 4.53 4.45 5.20 3.63 4.29 5.18 3.80 4.34 65.40 61.76 27.03 25.89 52.91 25.22 28.98 54.20
Table1.1:area,yieldsandproductionforwheat,barleyandmaize

8
cereals
areas(Mha) chg.vs yields chg.vs production(Mt) chg.vs
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
softwheat 23.2 22.5 23.0 23.3 1% 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.7 3% 139.9 129.1 126.4 131.5 4%
barley 14.5 13.9 12.3 12.5 1% 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 1% 65.4 61.8 52.9 54.2 2%
maize 8.8 8.5 8.0 8.7 8% 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 -0% 62.6 57.4 54.9 59.1 8%
durum 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.7 -10% 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 1% 10.1 8.5 9.1 8.3 -9%
rye 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 -2% 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.1 5% 9.3 9.6 7.8 8.0 3%
othercereals 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.2 1% 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.3 2% 25.0 25.5 22.9 23.6 3%
totalcereals 59.8 58.0 56.1 56.9 1% 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 2% 312.3 291.8 274.0 284.7 3,9%
areas(kha)
commercialcropyears
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Totalcereals 59810 58040 56120 56940
Totaloilseeds(includedcropsgrownonset-aside) 10670 11260 11630 11620
Totalproteincrops 930 1180 1470 1360
Silage 5160 5300 5650 5790
EUset-aside&fallowland(nonfoodcropsexclud.) 5810 6300 7060 6160
ofwhichEU15set-aside 5600 3990 4350 3890
Sugarbeet 1520 1590 1590 1660
Totalareacultivated+set-aside 83900 83670 83520 83530
Table1.3:changesinareaforthemaincrops(EU27)
Source:Stratégiegrains
Table1.2:EuropeanUnioncerealproduction2008/09-2011/12(EU27)
pace across Europe and are completed, or nearly
finished,inFrance,Germany,Italy,Austria,Czech
RepublicandHungary.Plantingscontinuesapace
inPoland,RomaniaandBulgaria,wheretherather
coolandrelativelywetspringhasslowedplanting
activities. In those areas affected by drought,
rates of maize plant emergence are sometimes
uneven.Neverthelessitisstilltooearlytoenvisage
a reduction in maize yield potentials; yields will
mostly depend on weather conditions during
flowering(inJuly)andduringthefinalphaseofthe
development.
Germany: weather has
remained dry
Weather update and condition of
crops
April was very dry in Germany and rainfall
was extremely scarce (-58% compared with
the seasonal average recorded 1961-1990).
Very high temperatures have accompanied the
drought; April 2011 is the second hottest April
onrecordsince1881.Thesituationisparticularly
problematic in the north and east of Germany,
whichhavereceivedevenlessrainthanthecentre
and south. At our time of writing (May 9), the
weather forecast was not especially promising:
rainfallwillcontinuetobescarceandtemperatures
aresettoremainratherhighatleastuntilafterMay
15.
The wheat and barley plants in Germany are
still in the extension phase. However, the high
temperaturesrecordedinrecentweekshavecaused
plant growth rates to accelerate and the growth
cycle is now around two weeks in advance of
normal;theplantswillshortlybeginearformation.
Damageassociatedwithstemextensionoccurring
atatimeofdroughtandheatstresscaninpartbe
compensatedforifconditionsareidealattheend
of the growth cycle (cool and humid without
excessive rainfall). By contrast, if the drought
continueswhilsttheearformationandflowering
takesplace,thisinitialhandicapwillbeintensified
andwillgeneratesignificantlossestoyieldpotential
forwhichtheplantswillnotbeabletocompensate.
Ifthisturnsouttobethecase,thenumberofgrains
per ear would be reduced and this component
of overall yield could not offset reductions in
the number of ears per m2
or low plant biomass
(whicharebothlikelytobelowthisyear).Itistoo
earlytodefinitivelyenvisageaverysharpfallinyield
potentials,butitnowseemsimprobablethathigh
wheatyieldswillbeachievedinGermanythisyear.
The dry, hot weather has meant that maize
plantingshaveprogressedquicklyandasofMay9,
plantingactivitieswerealmostfinished.
Production
We have not changed our estimates for planted
areasinGermany.
Given the weather situation and outlook in
Germany, we have decreased our yield forecasts
for all the straw crops. Our yield estimates still
have a significant variation potential depending
onweatherconditionsinthecomingweeks.Ifthe
droughtcontinues,theycouldbesubjecttosharp
reduction.
Softwheatyieldisreviseddownfrom7.8t/hato
7.45 t/ha. This is still much better than the very
low yield obtained in 2010 (7.04 t/ha); in that
yearadroughtinAprilwasfollowedbytorrential
rains at harvest time, which delayed the harvest
andcausedlargelossesofgrainsinthefield.Wheat
productionin2011isreviseddownby1.2Mtthis
monthto24.63Mt(23.24Mtin2010/11).
Winterbarleyyieldisreviseddownfrom6.61t/
ha to 6.34 t/ha (6.56 t/ha in 2010/11). Spring
barley yield is revised down from 4.93 t/ha to
4.83 t/ha (4.84 t/ha in 2010/11). Total barley
productionisforecastdownby370ktto9.45Mt
(-790ktcomparedwith2010/11).
Ryeyieldisreviseddownfrom5.18t/hato4.87
t/ha(4.6t/hain2010/11);productionisrevised
down from 3.08 Mt to 2.89 Mt (2.85 Mt in
2010/11).
Triticale production is revised down from 2.27
Mtpreviouslyto2.18Mt(2.2Mtin2010/11).
Oats production is revised down from 0.81 Mt
previouslyto0.78Mt(0.6Mtin2010/11).
Maize production is forecast stable compared
withlastmonthat4.64Mt(3.99Mtin2010/11).
Yields will mainly be impacted by weather
conditions towards the end of the growth cycle
(floweringtoharvest).
We now estimate total grain production in
Germanyat44.75Mt(43.37Mtin2010/11).
Belgium/Luxembourg: harvest
forecast revised down slightly
As elsewhere in west Europe, Belgium has been
facing a drought situation for several weeks. We
havereducedouryieldforecastsslightlytoreflect
this. We now estimate softwheat production at
2.02Mt(downfrom2.06Mtforecastpreviously)
and barley production at 382 kt (down from
399 kt previously and 420 kt in 2010/11).
Maizeproductionisforecastat818kt(750ktin
2010/11).
BelgiumandLuxembourgat3.34Mt(compared
with3.27Mtin2010/11).
Denmark: rainfall scarce
MarchwasdryinDenmark,andthelackofrain
continued through April, with rainfall in April

9
totalling just 39% of the norm for this month.
Due to the fact that crop development is not as
far advanced as in the other countries, the dry
conditionshavenotyethadtoounfavourablean
impact on the crops, especially given that some
farmers took the precaution of irrigating crops
to limit the drought’s impact. Nevertheless, rains
are needed very urgently if a sharp fall in yield
potentials,forbothwinterandspringcrops,isto
be avoided. We have made small reductions this
monthtoouryieldforecasts,toreflecttheprobable
smaller plant biomass at flowering. If conditions
areverygoodbetweennowandtheharvest,itwill
be possible for the plants to compensate for this
handicap.
Soft wheat yield is revised down from 7.38 t/
ha to 7.25 t/ha (6.61 t/ha in 2010/11). Planted
areaisrevisedupby10khato739kha(764kha
in2010/11).Productionthereforedecreasesvery
slightly from 5.38 Mt to 5.36 Mt (5.06 Mt in
2010/11).
For barley, the adjustments to planted area
compensate for the small reduction in yield and
estimated production therefore remains stable at
3.3Mt(2.99Mtin2010/11),including2.56Mt
ofspringbarley(2.2Mtin2010/11).
WeestimatetotalgrainproductioninDenmark
at9.34Mt(upfrom8.72Mtin2010/11).
Spain: beneficial rains
crops
Last month, we highlighted that rainfall levels
throughthewinterhadbeensatisfactoryinSpain,
althoughtheeastofthecountryhadreceivedless
rainthantherestofthecountry.
The mean rainfall volume in April (a critical
month in terms of yield determination) totalled
49.6 mm, very close to the average of the last 10
years. Aragon and Catalonia again received very
little rainfall whereas rainfall levels were good in
the main grain producing regions (Andalusia,
Extremadura, Castile and Leon and Castile-la
Mancha, see graphic 1.1); yield potentials are
thereforemaintained.Ifrainfalllevelscontinueto
be good through the next few weeks, we could
increaseouryieldforecastssignificantly.
At the beginning of May, the wheat plants were
endingthestemextensionphasewithsomealready
beginning to flower in the southern regions; the
barleywasnearingtheendofitsfloweringphase.
Production
At this stage of plant development, the impact
of the rains on potential soft wheat yield is still
moderate, and we have therefore not altered our
yieldforecastof4.92Mt(4.69Mtin2010/11).
Durum wheat development is more advanced,
partlybecauseitismostlygrowninthesouthern
regions; yield potential has increased as a result
of the good rainfall levels. Durum wheat yield is
revisedupfrom2.3t/hato2.46t/ha(1.93t/hain
2010/11).Productionisrevisedupfrom1Mtto
1.07Mt(0.91Mtin2010/11).
Barleyreapsthemaximumbenefitfromtherains
and yield is revised up from 2.86 t/ha to 3 t/ha
(2.87t/hain2010/11);productionisrevisedup
from8.76Mtto9.17Mt(8.23Mtin2010/11).
Nochangethismonthforestimatedmaizegrain
productionat3.17Mt(3.01Mtin2010/11).
We estimate total grain production in Spain at
19.94Mt(upfrom18.29Mtin2010/11).
France: drought conditions
persist
crops
After a very dry month in March, drought
conditionscontinuedthroughApril.Thevolume
of rainfall was very much lower than normal
throughout France at around 75% less than the
norm (recorded 1971-2000) in a good half of
the country. The rainfall deficit was particularly
pronounced in Normandy, Picardy, in the
Paris region, part of the Centre region, Poitou-
CharentesandthePaysdeLoire.Thescarcityof
rainfall and the high temperatures have already
led to the introduction of irrigation restrictions,
notablyinPoitou-CharentesandtheParisregion.
AtthebeginningofMay,therewasalittlerainfall
innorthernFrance,mostlyintheformoflocalised
downpours that were insufficient to bring any
significant(andmuchneeded)respitetothecrops.
Rainfallvolumesareforecasttoremainsmalluntil
atleastMay12,whichwillcontributetoafurther
intensificationofthestresslevelscurrentlyaffecting
thecrops.
AsofMay6,Frenchwheathadalmostreachedthe
earformationphase,around10to15daysearlier
thannormal.Thismeansthattheriskofdamage
fromnightfrostswillbemuchhigherduringear
formation and flowering, when the plants are
extremely sensitive to colder temperatures. We
willmonitorthispointclosely,becauseanysudden
drop in temperature could impact negatively on
earfertility.
Meanwhile,thefactthattheentirestemextension
phasetookplaceindryconditionswillmeanthat
secondary tillers are much less abundant than
normal and that the plants face a shortage of
nitrogen.Nitrogenthatwasdistributedinthefields
didnotdissolvedcorrectlyintothesoilandthusit
hasnotbeenproperlyabsorbed.Plantbiomassat
flowering will therefore probably be smaller than
normal.Thishandicapisnotnecessarilyasetback
as far as yield is concerned because if weather
conditions are clement at the end of the growth
cycle(mildandhumidwithoutexcessiverainfall)
theplantswillbeabletocompensateatleastinpart
forthisdisadvantage.However,forthisscenarioto
playout,asignificantvolumeofrainwillneedto
fallverysoon.
Meanwhile, the dry weather in April was very
favourable in terms of maize plantings. These
beganatthebeginningofAprilandwerealmost
finishedbythebeginningofMay,around10days
earlier than normal. Maize plant emergence has
happenedveryquickly.
Production
Ourcropareaforecaststakeaccountofthelatest
estimates published by SSP and FranceAgriMer.
This month, we have significantly reduced our
yieldforecastsforallthestrawcropstoreflectthe
Graphic1.1:rainfallvolumesinSpain(mm)inApril
Source:AgenciaEstataldeMeteorologia(AEMET)

10
area(kha)
SSP FranceAgriMer
May2011 May2011
10/11 11/12 evo. 10/11 11/12 evo.
wintersoftwheat 4908 5004 2,0% na na
softwheatwint.+spring 4921 5016 1,9% 4921 5018 2,0%
winterbarley 1163 1094 -5,9% 1165 1096 -5,9%
springbarley 419 453 8,1% 422 455 7,8%
barleywint.+spring 1582 1547 -2,2% 1588 1552 -2,3%
winterdurum 493 464 -5,9% na na
durumwint.+spring 505 471 -6,8% 503 462 -8,2%
rye 30 29 -0,7% 30 29 -1,8%
winteroats 59 58 -2,0% na na
oatswint.+spring 98 95 -3,8% 99 94 -5,8%
triticale 382 384 0,6% 378 386 2,1%
maize 1571 1563 -0,6% 1543 1520 -1,5%
sorghum 52 45 -13,4% 52 45 -13,8%
total cereals 9141 9150 0,1% 9113 9104 -0,1%
winterrape 1459 1523 4,4% na na
rapewint.+spring 1465 1527 4,2% 1457 1520 4,3%
sun 695 699 0,6% 698 710 1,7%
proteincrops 404 312 -22,7% na na
extremelydryweatherconditions.
Softwheatyieldfallsfrom7.43t/hato7.14t/ha
(7.24 t/ha in 2010/11). Production is therefore
revised down by almost 1.5 Mt to 36.01 Mt
(35.64Mtin2010/11).Thisestimatehasafurther
significantvariationpotentialthatwilldependon
weatherconditionsinthecomingweeks.Ifrainfall
remainsscarce,yieldpotentialscouldsufferfurther
decrease; if conditions at the end of the growth
cycleturnouttobeideal(relativelycoolandhumid
withoutexcessiverains),yieldscouldincreasealittle.
Estimated winter barley yield falls from 6.78 t/
ha to 6.48 t/ha (6.51 t/ha in 2010/11). Spring
barleyyielddecreasesfrom6.47t/halastmonth
to 6.23 t/ha (6.07 t/ha in 2010/11). We now
forecastwinterbarleyproductionat7.1Mt,down
from 7.44 Mt previously (7.56 Mt in 2010/11)
and spring barley production at 2.77 Mt, down
from 2.85 Mt previously (2.54 Mt in 2010/11).
As in the case of soft wheat, these estimates have
asignificantpotentialforvariationdependingon
weatheroutcomesinthenextfewweeks.
Durumwheatyieldfallsfrom5.14t/hato4.83
t/ha (5.09 t/ha in 2010/11); production is thus
revised down by 140 kt to 2.19 Mt (2.55 Mt in
2010/11).
Wehavereducedestimatedmaizegrainareaby70
khathismonthto1.52Mha.Thisestimatereflects
thelatestforecastsfromSSPandFranceAgriMer
and includes a forecast of 40 kha transfer from
maize grain production to silage. This reflects
the fact that fodder stocks from 2010 are low.
In all probability, it will not be possible to offset
this shortfall with increased hay production in
2011.Unlessmaizeyieldsareverygood,livestock
farmers (especially in Brittany and the Pays de
Loire)willneedtodivertsomemaizegrainfields
tosilageproduction.Wewillamendthisforecast
to reflect the change in maize yield potentials.
Taking account of this smaller maize grain area,
productionisreviseddownfrom14.44Mtto13.8
Mt(13.57Mtin2010/11).
Franceat64.97Mt(65.12Mtin2010/11).
Greece: no change
TemperaturesinGreecewerelowerthannormal
in April, causing a slight deceleration in crop
development. Rainfall levels were satisfactory at
thebeginningofMay.
Nochangetoourproduction forecasts:
 Softwheat:440kt(360ktin2010/11)
 Barley:250kt(220ktin2010/11)
 Durumwheat:1Mt(1Mtin2010/11)
 Maizegrain:1.2Mt(1.12Mtin2010/11)
 Totalgrainproduction:2.99Mt(2.81Mtin
2010/11).
Italy: yields impacted by
drought in the north
AselsewhereinwestEurope,therehasbeenvery
little rainfall in northern Italy. Maize plantings
were completed within the ideal timeframe but
thenewplantshaveemergedatvariedrates.Crop
conditionthereforedependsonplantingdatesand
soiltypes.
The soft wheat reached flowering at the end of
Aprilandthe lack of water has already impacted
yield potentials for wheat and barley in the
northernItalianregions.
Bycontrast,therewasmorerainfallthannormal
in the south and the centre during April. Yield
potentials are therefore unchanged in the south
and remain good in the centre, where plantings
tookplaceverylate.
Toreflectthissituation,wehaverevisedsoftwheat
yield down from 5.38 t/ha to 5.29 t/ha (5.34 t/
hain2010/11).Softwheatproductionisrevised
downfrom3.33Mtpreviouslyto3.27Mt(3.32
Mtin2010/11).
Durumwheatproductionisreviseddownby10
ktto3.48Mt(3.99Mtin2010/11).Theexpected
reduction in durum wheat production is much
smaller because this crop is mostly grown in the
centreandsouth.
Barley yield is revised down from 3.76 t/ha
previously to 3.7 t/ha (3.59 t/ha in 2010/11);
thisgeneratesanexpectedharvestof1.06Mt(-15
kt since last month) compared with 0.99 Mt in
2010/11).
Maizegrainproductionisunchangedthismonth
at8.82Mt(8.11Mtin2010/11).
WenowestimatetotalgrainproductioninItaly
at17.3Mt(17.12Mtin2010/11)..
Netherlands: wheat yield
revised down slightly
TheNetherlandsisalsoextremelydryonaccount
ofthelackofrainfall.AtthebeginningofMay,the
crops were in a satisfactory state due to existing
moisture content in the soil, thanks to good
rainfallvolumesthroughtheautumnandwinter.
However, this indicates that the plants’ root
systems do not extend very deep and that their
capacitytoresistdroughtwillbelow.
Intermsofdevelopment,thewheatisnowinfull
extensionphase,thespringbarleyisemergingand
themaizeiscurrentlybeingplanted.
Softwheatyieldisreviseddownfrom8.72t/ha
to 8.61 t/ha (8.86 t/ha in 2010/11); this would
generateaharvestof1.23Mt,downfrom1.25Mt
estimatedpreviouslyand1.36Mtin2010/11).
No change this month to our other
production forecasts:
 Maizegrain:260kt(280ktin2010/11)
Wenowestimatetotalgrainproductioninthe
Netherlandsat1.78Mt(1.92Mtin2010/11).
Portugal: little change
LiketheothercountriesofMediterraneanEurope,
Portugal received abundant rainfall at the end
of April and crop development was good at the
Table1.4:SSPandFranceAgriMerestimatesforcrop
productionsinFrance
Source:SSPdated5May;FranceAgriMerdated11May2011

11
beginningofMay.
Maize grain plantings were taking place at this
time and we have increased slightly our forecast
for maize area by 10 kha to 100 kha (90 kha in
2010/11). We estimate maize grain production
at 670 kt, up from 610 kt previously (630 kt in
2010/11).
Nochangetoourotherharvestestimates:
 Softwheat:65kt(thesameasin2010/11)
 Barley:66kt(75ktin2010/11).
WeestimatetotalgrainproductioninPortugalat
0.92Mt(0.88Mtin2010/11).
UK: yields impacted by lack of
rain
crops
After an unusually dry month of March, the
absence of rainfall continued throughout the
whole of April (rainfall averaged less than 20
mm, less than 35 % of the seasonal norm). The
rainfalldeficitconcernsEnglandandWales,with
the southern and eastern regions affected most
severely.
Wherepossible,farmershavebeenirrigatingcrops
to maintain yield potentials. However, in areas
oflightsoil,yieldpotentialswerealreadyreduced
as of the start of May. In deeper soils, the impact
hasbeenlesspronounced.Rainfallinthecoming
two weeks will be critical in determining crop
developmentoutcomes.
At the beginning of May, the winter barley had
reached the end of its extension phase (last leaf
emergence) following rapid development due to
thewarmconditions.Winterwheatdevelopment
is also more advanced than in previous years:
the earliest sown plants are already at third node
emergencewhilstthelastplantssownarenowat
theendoftillering.
In Scotland, spring barley plantings have been
completedinlinewithfarmers’plantingintentions.
Production
Wehavereducedouryieldforecastsforthestraw
cereals.
Softwheatyieldisreviseddownfrom8.01t/ha
to7.84t/ha(7.67t/hain2010/11);productionis
reviseddownfrom16.07Mtpreviouslyto15.74
Mt(14.88Mtin2010/11).
Weestimatewinterbarleyyielddownfrom6.58t/
hapreviouslyto6.38t/ha(6.37t/hain2010/11).
Winterbarleyproductionisforecastdownby70
ktto2.3Mt(2.43Mtin2010/11).Springbarley
registersasmallerreductioninprojectedyieldthis
month, dropping from 5.52 t/ha to 5.45 t/ha
(5.22t/halastyear);productionisreviseddownby
35ktto2.97Mt(2.81Mtin2010/11).
Oatyieldisalsoreviseddownfrom5.94t/hato
5.88 t/ha (5.52 t/ha in 2010/11); this comes in
addition to 10 kha decline in estimated area to
115kha(125khain2010/11).Oatproductionis
thereforereviseddownby80ktto680kt(685kt
in2010/11).
WeestimatetotalgrainproductionintheUKat
21.83Mt(20.94Mtin2010/11).
Austria: dry conditions
recorded
Austria is also suffering from a lack of rain; the
countrymostrecentlyreceivedsignificantrainsin
mid-March. Since thestart ofthe winter,Austria
hasonlyreceivedaround50%ofitsnormalrainfall
volume.Plantstresshasbeenintensifiedbecauseof
high temperatures, which remained above the
seasonalaveragethroughoutApril.
Despite this, the winter crops remain in good
condition: yield potential has not yet suffered
a negative impact. Maize plantings have been
completed and crop emergence has been
satisfactory.
No change to our production estimates this
month:
 Softwheat:1.47Mt(1.41Mtin2010/11).
 Totalgrainproduction: 5.16 Mt (4.78 Mt
en2010/11).
Finland: spring crop plantings
have started
After a very harsh winter in Finland, the snow
hasnowcompletelymeltedinthesouthandthe
springhasarrived.Vegetationgrowthhasresumed
andtheconditionofthewintercropswasdeemed
satisfactoryatthebeginningofMay.
Spring crop plantings started in good time. On
May6,around15%ofplantingshadalreadytaken
place and the remaining area should be planted
quicklythankstothedry,mildconditionsforecast
forthecomingweeks.
No change to our production forecasts since last
month:
 Softwheat:0.85Mt(0.72Mtin2010/11)
 Barley:1.74Mt(1.34Mtin2010/11)
 Oat:0.94Mt(0.81Mtin2010/11)
 Total grain production: 3.67 Mt (up from
2.99Mtin2010/11).
Sweden: spring crop plantings
finished
SpringcropplantingswerecompletedinSweden
during the last week of April, around a week
laterthannormal.RainsatthestartofAprilwere
beneficial for the 50 % of fields planted by that
stage, and plant emergence was good thanks to
the mild temperatures. Since then, conditions
have stayed dry and the state of the crops varies
significantlyfromplacetoplace.
No change to our production forecasts since last
month:
 Softwheat:2.35Mt(2.18Mtin2010/11)
 Barley:1.49Mt(1.23Mtin2010/11)
 Oat:0.78Mt(0.56Mtin2010/11)
2010/11).
Poland: yield potentials hit by
harsh winter
crops
WeatherconditionsstayedcoldinPolandthrough
March,butspringhasnowarrived.Temperatures
weremilderthannormalthroughthelast10days
of April, allowing plant development to progress
rapidly and offset several days development
shortfall caused by the long winter. Plant
developmentwassatisfactoryatthebeginningof
Maybutrainsarenowurgentlyneeded,especially
in the west, in order to prevent a loss of yield
potential.
Thewheatplantswerestartingupwardextension
at the beginning of May and farmers were just
beginningtosowthemaize,althoughnighttime
temperatureswerestillcold,fallingbelowfreezing
inthecentreofthecountry.
Production
Poland’sstatisticsofficepublisheditsfirstestimates
forwintercropareas;wehavetakenthesefigures
intoaccount.
Wehavealsoamendedouryieldestimatestoreflect
our hypothesis that the minimum temperatures
recordedinPolandduringthewinterwillhavehad
anegativeimpactonthewintercereals.
Softwheatyield is revised down from 4 t/ha to
3.92t/ha(3.77t/hain2010/11)andproduction
down from 9.78 Mt to 9.49 Mt (9.08 Mt in
2010/11).
Winter barley yield falls from 3.96 t/ha to
3.84 t/ha (3.92 t/ha in 2010/11). Total barley
production is now estimated at 3.54 Mt, down
from3.56Mtlastmonth(3.55Mtin2010/11).
Rye area is revised up by 25 kha this month to
1.4 Mha (the same as in 2010/11); this offsets
thesmallfallinestimatedyieldfrom2.42t/hato
2.37 t/ha (2.34 t/ha in 2010/11). Production is
unchangedat3.31Mt(3.27Mtin2010/11).
Oatproductionisreviseddownby15ktto1.42
Mt(1.33Mtin2010/11).
No change for maize grain production this
monthat2.02Mt(1.73Mtin2010/11).
Polandat27.53Mt(26.83Mtin2010/11).

12
Hungary: maize plantings
completed
crops
Last month, we forecast that farmers’ planting
intentions for spring barley would not be fully
realised due to the comparatively low level of
plantings completed by the end of March. In
effect,thedryconditionsinAprilallowedfarmers
tocompletespringbarleyplantingstothelevelof
their original intentions and also meant that the
totalityofmaizeplantingcouldbecompleted.At
thebeginningofMay,maizeplantemergencewas
satisfactory.
The wheat plants were in full extension phase
during the first days of May and development is
judgedsatisfactory.Theonlyworryconcernsthose
fieldsthatwerefloodedlastautumn,wherewheat
developmentisverymixed:thisconcernsaround
80khaofwheat,locatedinareaswhereplantswere
asphyxiated.
Rainfall is now needed in Hungary to prevent a
declineinyieldpotentials.
Production
We have decreased our forecast for soft wheat
yield potential to reflect the negative outlook for
fieldsinareashitbyflooding;productionisrevised
downby35ktthismonthto4.19Mt(3.62Mtin
2010/11).
Spring barley area is revised up by 10 kha to
100 kha (the same as in 2010/11). Total barley
productionisrevisedupfrom1Mtlastmonthto
1.03Mt(0.97Mtin2010/11).
No change for maize grain production this
monthat8.74Mt(6.98Mtin2010/11).
WeestimatetotalgrainproductioninHungary
at14.68Mt(upfrom12.29Mtin2010/11).
Czech Republic: beneficial
rains at the end of April
Weather conditions through April were dry and
hotintheCzechRepublic.Farmerswereableto
completespringbarleyplantingswithintheideal
plantingwindowandindeedmaizegrainplantings
werealmostfinishedbythebeginningofMay.
Although insufficient to meet requirements, the
CzechRepublicreceivedsomerainfallattheend
ofApril,whichbroughtsomerespitetothecrops.
No change this month to estimated soft wheat
Spring barley production is revised down by 10
khathismonthto270kha(280khain2010/11).
Totalbarleyproductionisnowestimatedat1.65
Mt, down from 1.7 Mt previously (1.58 Mt in
2010/11).
Maizegrainproductionisrevisedupby30ktthis
monthto0.89Mt(0.69Mtin2010/11).
We estimate total grain production in Czech
Republic at 7.51 Mt (up from 6.88 Mt in
2010/11).
Slovakia: small increase for
maize
Rainfall levels have also been insufficient in
Slovakia during the last few weeks; the last
significantrainfallwasinmid-March.Attheendof
April,cropdevelopmentwasneverthelessjudged
satisfactory. The wheat is in full extension phase
andrainisnowneededurgentlyifyieldpotentials
aretobemaintained.
Farmers were able to complete spring barley
plantings within the ideal planting window and
maizeplantingsarenowalmostfinished.
No change this month to estimated soft wheat
Springbarleyproductionisreviseddownby10
khato100kha(125khain2010/11);totalbarley
productionisforecastat400kt,downfrom440kt
lastmonth(390ktin2010/11).
Thischangebenefitsprojectedmaizegrainarea,
which increases 10 kha to 200 kha (170 kha in
2010/11).Maizeproductionisnowestimatedat
1.32Mt,upfrom1.26Mtpreviously(1.05Mtin
2010/11).
WeestimatetotalgrainproductioninSlovakiaat
3.23Mt(upfrom2.81Mtin2010/11).
Lithuania: very significant
winterkill
Lastmonth,weindicatedthatthewintercropsin
Lithuaniahadsufferedsubstantialdamageduring
thewinterbutthatitwastooearlytoestimatethe
fullextent.Sincethen,Lithuania’sstatisticsofficehas
published its estimate of crop losses to winterkill,
whichisindeedveryhighthisyear.Inresponseto
themilderwinterconditionsofrecentyears,during
thelastthreeyearsfarmersinLithuaniahaveopted
toplantincreasingwintercropareasintheautumn
inordertoobtainbetteryields.However,thisyear
the strategy of planting winter rather than spring
cropshasnotpaidoff.
Wehaveadoptedtheofficialestimatesforwinter
losses,whichgeneratesasignificanttransferofcrop
areasintospringgrainproduction,forwhichyields
arelower.Overall,thechangesmeanthatourcrop
areaforecastsarenowsimilartothoseof4or5years
ago.
Winter wheat area is revised down by 100 kha
this month to 260 kha (370 kha in 2010/11);
spring wheat area is revised up by 160 kha to
210kha(150khain2010/11).Totalsoftwheat
production therefore falls by 320 kt to 1.84 Mt
(1.71Mtin2010/11).
Winter barley has all but disappeared and
therefore spring barley area rises sharply by 125
khato360kha(220khain2010/11).Totalbarley
productionisnowestimatedat1Mt,upfrom0.7
Mtpreviously(0.55Mtin2010/11).
We now estimate total grain production
in Lithuania at 3.45 Mt (up from 2.77 Mt in
2010/11).
Romania: maize area revised
up slightly
RomaniareceivedplentyofrainfallinApril;atthe
beginningofMay,allthecropswereinasatisfactory
condition. However, temperatures have been
cooler than normal and plant development was
aroundaweekbehindscheduleatthebeginning
ofMay.
Thealterationtosoftwheatproductionin2010
impacts yield for2011; it rises from 2.94 t/ha to
2.99t/ha;productiongains90kt,risingto5.79Mt
(5.97Mtin2010/11).
Springbarleyareaisreviseddownfrom195kha
to 175 kha (180 kha in 2010/11). Total barley
productionisnowestimatedat1.1Mt,downfrom
1.14Mtlastmonth(1.32Mtin2010/11).
Maize grain area benefits from this adjustment,
rising from 2.47 Mha to 2.5 Mha (2.29 Mha in
2010/11).Maizegrainproductionisrevisedupby
80ktto8.45Mt(8.75Mtin2010/11).
Romania at 15.84 Mt (down from 16.57 Mt in
2010/11).
Bulgaria: development
shortfall
Temperatures were below the seasonal norm in
Bulgaria during April. This slowed winter crop
development,whichisnowalmost10daysbehind
schedulecomparedwithanormalyearinthewest
of the country and 15 to 20 days behind in the
east.Wateravailabilitywasnotacauseforconcern
duringApril.
Therateofmaizeplantingsalsoslowedwhilethe
ideal window for plantings closes around May
10. We are currently working on the basis that
farmerswillfulfiltheirplantingintentionsgiventhe
attractivenessofthiscropinfinancialterms.
Nochangetoourproduction estimates:
 Softwheat:3.79Mt(thesameas2010/11)
 Barley: 0.64Mt(0.77Mtin2010/11)
2010/11).

13
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
(Mt)
Total
output
%
milling
Milling
output
Total
output
%
milling
Milling
output
Total
output
%
milling
Milling
output
Germany 25.95 91% 23.59 25.12 92% 23.04 23.24 43% 9.99
Belgium-Lux 1.95 20% 0.39 2.00 18% 0.36 2.00 19% 0.38
Denmark 5.02 17% 0.85 5.94 15% 0.89 5.06 10% 0.51
Spain 5.59 93% 5.19 3.40 95% 3.23 4.69 93% 4.36
France 36.90 90% 33.21 36.23 82% 29.71 35.64 89% 31.72
Greece 0.53 50% 0.26 0.50 30% 0.15 0.36 30% 0.11
Ireland 0.95 10% 0.10 0.67 10% 0.07 0.64 15% 0.10
Italy 3.74 80% 2.99 3.10 75% 2.33 3.32 75% 2.49
TheNetherl. 1.37 20% 0.27 1.40 18% 0.25 1.36 19% 0.26
Portugal 0.20 95% 0.19 0.09 95% 0.08 0.06 95% 0.06
UnitedKingd. 17.23 25% 4.31 14.08 30% 4.22 14.88 29% 4.31
Austria 1.58 50% 0.79 1.43 60% 0.86 1.41 70% 0.99
Finland 0.79 20% 0.16 0.89 30% 0.27 0.72 67% 0.49
Sweden 2.20 15% 0.33 2.28 15% 0.34 2.18 15% 0.33
Poland 9.27 80% 7.42 9.64 80% 7.71 9.08 45% 4.08
Hungary 5.40 60% 3.24 4.28 60% 2.57 3.62 50% 1.81
CzechRepublic 4.44 91% 4.04 4.17 50% 2.09 3.98 50% 1.99
Slovakia 1.75 80% 1.40 1.41 70% 0.99 1.18 50% 0.59
Estonia 0.34 70% 0.24 0.34 90% 0.31 0.32 70% 0.23
Latvia 1.09 80% 0.87 1.04 97% 1.01 0.97 70% 0.68
Lithuania 1.97 80% 1.58 2.18 95% 2.07 1.71 70% 1.20
Slovenia 0.16 50% 0.08 0.14 50% 0.07 0.15 50% 0.08
Cyprus/Malta 0.01 34% 0.00 0.02 35% 0.01 0.02 20% 0.00
Romania 7.02 35% 2.46 5.25 30% 1.57 5.97 20% 1.19
Bulgaria 4.46 34% 1.52 3.53 35% 1.23 3.79 20% 0.76
EU 27 139.90 68% 95.48 129.13 66% 85.43 126.37 54% 68.70
Tableau1.5:estimatesforpercentageoftotalwheatproductionmeeting
criteriaformillingineachEUcountry(cropyears2008/09,2009/10and2010/11)
Source:Stratégiegrains
Crop year 2010/11
Wheatproductionrevisedup
Belgium/Luxembourg: final
production estimates published
Belgium’s statistics office published its final
productionfiguresforthe2010harvest.Wehave
adoptedthesefigures.
The2010harvestsinBelgiumandLuxembourg
nowtotal:
 Softwheat:2Mt,upfrom1.92Mtpreviously
(2Mtin2009/10)
 Barley:416kt,upfrom400ktpreviously(507
ktin2009/10)
 Maize:748kt,upfrom671ktpreviously(810
ktin2009/10).
Latvia: new official
production estimates
Latvia’sstatisticsofficepublishednewproduction
estimates,whichwehaveadopted.
Softwheatrisessharplyby70ktto0.97Mt(1.04
Mtin2009/10).
Barleyproductionfallsby10ktto210kt(270kt
in2009/10).
Romania: wheat production
revised up
To reflect wheat export volumes shipped by
Romaniain2010/11,wehaveincreasedestimated
soft wheat production. Yield is revised up from
2.99 t/ha previously to 3.12 t/ha (2.6 t/ha in
2009/10)andproductionnowtotals5.97Mt,up
from5.72Mtlastmonth(5.25Mtin2009/10).

cereal consumption in the animal feed sector
Cereal consumption in the animal feed sector
14
Mt
2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
Tot. cat. pig pou Tot. cat. pig pou Total cat. pig pou Total cat. pig pou
Apr11 May11 Apr11 May11
Germany 20.4 6.2 9.0 5.3 20.4 6.0 9.0 5.4 20.6 21.0 6.3 9.3 5.5 20.7 21.1 6.3 9.3 5.5
Belg.-Lux 6.4 1.3 3.8 1.4 6.6 1.2 3.8 1.5 6.6 6.6 1.3 3.8 1.5 6.6 6.6 1.3 3.8 1.5
Denmark 4.6 1.0 3.0 0.6 4.2 0.9 2.8 0.5 4.3 4.3 0.9 2.8 0.5 4.2 4.2 0.9 2.8 0.5
Spain 17.8 3.8 9.6 4.5 17.3 3.7 9.2 4.4 17.2 17.2 3.8 9.0 4.4 17.3 17.3 3.8 9.0 4.5
France 19.8 5.1 6.1 8.6 19.2 4.9 5.8 8.5 19.5 19.5 5.2 5.7 8.7 19.5 19.5 5.3 5.5 8.7
Greece 1.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.7 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.7
Ireland 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.5 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.5 3.1 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.5 3.1 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.5
Italy 12.3 3.7 3.2 5.4 12.2 3.5 3.2 5.5 12.1 12.1 3.4 3.2 5.5 12.2 12.2 3.5 3.2 5.6
Netherl. 13.1 3.4 6.0 3.7 12.9 3.4 5.9 3.6 13.0 12.9 3.4 5.9 3.6 12.9 12.9 3.4 5.8 3.6
Portugal 3.2 0.8 1.0 1.4 3.1 0.8 0.9 1.4 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.9 1.4 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.9 1.4
U.King. 12.4 4.7 1.5 6.2 12.9 4.9 1.6 6.4 13.2 13.1 5.0 1.6 6.5 13.3 13.2 4.9 1.7 6.5
Austria 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.5
Finland 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3
Sweden 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.6
Poland 6.8 0.7 1.6 4.5 7.1 0.7 1.5 5.0 7.2 7.2 0.7 1.5 5.0 7.1 7.1 0.7 1.5 4.8
Hungary 3.8 0.5 1.6 1.7 3.7 0.5 1.5 1.7 3.6 3.6 0.5 1.4 1.7 3.6 3.6 0.5 1.4 1.7
CzechRep. 2.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 2.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.4 2.4 0.5 0.9 1.0
Slovakia 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3
Estonia 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
Latvia 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Lithuania 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2
Slovenia 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3
Cyprus/Malta 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
Romania 2.8 0.1 1.2 1.5 2.8 0.1 1.1 1.5 2.7 2.7 0.1 1.1 1.5 2.7 2.7 0.1 1.1 1.5
Bulgaria 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4
EU 27 138.2 37.0 51.7 49.5 136.7 36.0 50.4 50.2 137.5 137.9 36.7 50.4 50.7 137.4 137.8 37.0 50.1 50.8
Crop year 2010/11
Industrial feed output is revised up by 0.4 Mt this month
to 137.9 Mt, reflecting the inclusion of the latest data
from Germany in our forecasting.
Estimated demand for cereals is revised up by 1 Mt this
month but remains forecast significantly lower than in
2009/10 (-5.4 Mt).
Crop year 2011/12
Estimated feed output in 2011/12 increases in line with
this month’s changes for 2010/11. It is set to remain at
a similar level to 2010/11.By contrast, estimated grain
usage in animal feeds is forecast to decline in line with
this month’s reductions to harvest estimates and hence
availabilities for on-farm grain usage. The downward
correction concerns wheat and maize.
EU27 Industrial feed production
Feed production revised up
Weestimateindustrialfeedoutputin2010/11
at 137.9 Mt (136.7 Mt in 2009/10); our es-
timate has increased by 0.4 Mt this month,
mainly to reflect a higher production forecast
for Germany. The increase relates to pig feed
(+0.26Mtto50.4MtintheEU,thesameasin
2009/10)andpoultryfeed(+0.13Mtto50.7
Mtcomparedwith50.2Mtin2009/10).
Industrialfeedoutputin2011/12isestimated
at 137.8 Mt, close to the level of 2010/11 (up
from137.4Mtlastmonth);thiscomprises37
Mt of cattle feed (no change compared with
lastmonth),50.1Mtofpigfeed(upfrom49.8
Mt last month) and 50.8 Mt of poultry feed
(50.7Mtlastmonth).
Situation in each country
Germany: feed production estimated
up
Germany’s agriculture ministry (BMELV)
has published industrial feed output figures
for January 2011 and has made sharp upward
corrections to its figures for July through
December 2010. We have therefore increased
ourforecastforcattlefeedoutputinGermany
by 70 kt to 6.3 Mt (6 Mt in 2009/10), pig
feed output by 0.23 Mt to 9.3 Mt (9 Mt in
2009/10)andpoultryfeedoutputby0.17Mt
to 5.5 Mt (5.4 Mt in 2009/10). Combined
productionof thethreefeed types is now esti-
matedat21Mt(upfrom20.6Mtlastmonth
and20.4Mtin2009/10).Totalfeedoutputin
2011/12 also increases to 21.1 Mt (compared
with 20.7 Mt previously) comprising 6.3 Mt
ofcattlefeed,9.3Mtofpigfeedand5.5Mtof
poultryfeed.
Table2.1:changesinEU27industrialcompoundfeedproductionbycountry

15
0,9
1,1
1,3
1,5
1,7
1,9
2,1
2,3
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
3,5
July Sept. Nove. Janu. Marc. May
2007/08 2009/10 2008/09
2010/11 2011/12
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500
540
580
Jan-87
Jun-88
Nov-89
Apr-91
Sep-92
Feb-94
Jul-95
Dec-96
May-98
Oct-99
Mar-01
Aug-02
Jan-04
Jun-05
Nov-06
Apr-08
Sep-09
Feb-11
Jul-12
€ / ton $ / ton
48% soymeal, CIF Rotterdam $/t
48% soymeal, French ports (€/t)
May-Jun2011 Jul-Sep2011 Oct-Dec2011
Beg.Apr
(€/t)
Beg.May
(€/t)
%chge
Beg.Apr
(€/t)
Beg.May
(€/t)
%chge
Beg.Apr
(€/t)
Beg.May
(€/t)
%chge
feedpeas 242 247 +2% 228 250 +10% 231 250 +8%
rapemeal 198 203 +3% 193 201 +4% 195 200 +3%
sunmeal(French) 168 153 -9% 170 158 -7% 166 156 -6%
soyameal 330 307 -7% 313 310 -1% 322 312 -3%
rapeseeds 478 461 -4% 458 459 +0% 459 458 -0%
sunseeds na na na na na na
wheatbrans 163 138 -15% 160 150 -6% 155 138 -11%
beetpulp 225 225 +0% 216 230 +6% 188 230 +22%
fishmeal 1330 1240 -7% 1330 1240 -7% 1330 1240 -7%
groundnutmeal na na na na na na
vegetableoil 937 922 -2% 937 927 -1% 937 934 -0%
wheat 248 253 +2% 209 231 +11% 212 234 +10%
barley 202 212 +5% 189 210 +11% 192 213 +11%
maize 229 247 +8% 232 250 +8% 204 221 +8%
tapioca65 na na na na na na
citrus 225 227 +1% 225 227 +1% 200 231 +16%
CGF 204 200 -2% 200 179 -11% 180 182 +1%
molasses 187 187 +0% 187 187 +0% 187 187 +0%
Graphic2.1:soymealprices Graphic2.2:soya/wheatpriceratioinFrance
UK: cattle and poultry feed produc-
tion estimated down
DEFRAhaspublishedindustrialfeedproduc-
tiondataforFebruary2011intheUK,which
we have incorporated into our forecasting.
Projected cattle feed output in 2010/11 falls
50 kt to 5 Mt (4.9 Mt in 2009/10) and poul-
tryfeedproduction70ktto6.5Mt(6.4Mtin
2009/10); no change for pig feed production
at1.6Mt(thesameas2009/10).
Breakdown of raw material consumption in animal feeds in 2011/12
Demand for the main cereals revised down since last month to reflect lower har-
vest forecasts
Demandforwheatandmaizeinanimalfeedsis
reviseddownsharplythismonth(byaround1
Mtforbothcereals),whilstestimateddemand
forbarleyremainsclosetolastmonth’sforecast.
The main change in the case of wheat relates
toon-farmbarleyusageinFranceandBritain;
demand for wheat in industrial feeds remains
close to the level forecast last month. The re-
duction in barley usage in on-farm feeds is ex-
plained by this month’s reduction to harvest
forecastsinFranceandBritain.
Inthecaseofmaize,thereductionconcernsde-
mandformaizeinon-farmfeedsinGermany,
France (lower harvest forecasts) and Britain
(reduction in quantity of maize purchased on
the market for use in on-farm animal feeds,
reflectingprojecteddeclineinUKmaizeavail-
abilities); demand for maize is also revised
down in industrial feeds in Germany and the
Benelux.
Demandforwheatandmaizeinanimalfeeds
isstillforecasthigherthanin2010/11,butthe
growthissettobelesssharpthanweforecasta
monthago.
Weestimatetotalgrainusageinanimalfeedsat
156.8Mt,downby1.6Mtsincelastmonth;it
isnowsettobe0.9Mtlowerthanthevolume
usedin2010/11.
By contrast, demand for oilmeals is still set
to be greater than in 2010/11 because the
protein-rich commodities are set to be more
competitivethantheenergy-richcommodities
in 2011/12 whilst the overall volume of com-
moditiesusedintheanimalfeedsectorissetto
remainthesameasin2010/11.
France: small growth for
maize
Estimatemaizeusagehasrisenslightlysincelast
month. The old crop maize price for the first
months of 2011/12 is now close the level at
which maize becomes attractive for inclusion
inpigfeeds.
We estimate grain usage in French industrial
Table2.2:factorydeliveredpricesforthemainrawmaterials
(deliveredBrittany, €/t,wholeprices)

16
Avr2011 May2011 change Jul2011
5/4/11 5/5/11 5/5/11
€/t €/t €/t
Span./orthirdcountrymaizefactorydelivered 252 242 96% 252
Frenchmaizefactorydelivered 249 246 99% 251
Spanish/EUbarleyfactorydelivered 252 220 87% 200
Span.wheatfactorydelivered
Import.wheatfactorydeliv. 252 250 99% 222
US/Spanish/Frenchsorghum 240 242 101% 240
tapioca
cornglutenfeed
soymeal44% 300 306 102% 300
feedsin2011/12at:
 4.7 Mtforwheat(nochange)
 1.6 Mtforbarley(nochange)
 3.4 Mtformaize(lastmonth:3.3 Mt).
July-September 2011
Barleyremainspresentincattlefeed,although
projected demand in this period declines in
favour of wheat inclusions. Wheat remains
the dominant ingredient in pig feeds, but the
maizepriceforthisperiodisclosetothelevelat
whichmaizewillstartattractingdemand(con-
trarytothebarleyprice,whichwouldneedto
drop by 20 €/t to be competitive enough for
inclusioninthisfeedtype).
October-December 2011
Contrarytothesituationlastmonth,feedpeas
are no longer competitive for inclusion in pig
feeds; this follows an increase in the pea price
andadeclineinthesoymealprice.
Feedpeainclusionsinpigfeedsthereforefalls,
with demand share transferring to soya and
maize.
Spain: reduction for barley
Little change this month to projected feed
composition.
Wheat usage remains high in pig and cattle
feedforthefirstmonthsofthecropyear,prior
to the arrival of new crop maize; thereafter
wheat is absent from the feeds (except meat
poultryfeeds).
We estimate grain usage in Spanish industrial
feedsin2011/12at:
 4.4Mtforwheat(nochange)
 4.0Mtforbarley(lastmonth:4.2Mt)
 4.3 Mtformaize(nochange).
July-September 2011
Nochangesincelastmonth.Allthethreemain
cereals(wheat,barleyandmaize)arecompeti-
tive in cattle and pig feeds; maize dominates
in layer hen feeds and wheat in meat poultry
feeds.
Projectedbarleyusagedeclinesinpoultryfeeds
withdemandtransferringtosorghum.
Thereislittlechangetotheotherfeedtypesfor
this period: maize usage remains high in pig,
cattle and layer hen feeds. Wheat is sidelined
intomeatpoultryfeedonly.
Netherlands: reductions for
barley and maize with demand
share transferred to wheat
WeestimatetotaldemandforcerealsinDutch
animalfeedsatthesamelevelaslastmonth(6.5
Mt); within this total, wheat gains demand
shareduetoitsimprovedcompetitiveposition
forthefirstmonthsofcropyear2011/12.
We estimate grain usage in Dutch industrial
feedsat:
 2.9 Mtforwheat(lastmonth:2.7 Mt)
 1.4 Mtforbarley(lastmonth:1.5 Mt)
 2.3 Mtformaize(lastmonth:2.4 Mt).
July-September 2011
Wheat’s demand share rises sharply against
maize in pig feeds, and against barley in layer
hen feeds. Projected barley usage declines in
cattle feed against substitution commodities
(citrus).
Barley loses demand share in pig feeds with
demand transferring to maize, millfeeds and
oilmeals.
Breakdown of raw material consumption in animal feeds in 2010/11
Small increase in demand for the main cereals
Combined demand for wheat, barley and
maizeisnowestimatedat136 Mt(lastmonth:
135.3).
Demandforallthreecerealshasincreased.
In the case of wheat, the growth concerns
Germany, Spain, France (usage in industrial
feeds revised up) and Denmark (on-farm
feeds).Inthecasesofbarleyandmaize,thein-
creasesconcernFranceandGermanyonly.
Despite this increase, grain usage in animal
feeds in 2010/11 remains forecast sharply
down on the level of 2009/10 (-5.4 Mt for all
cerealscombined).
Total demand for oilmeals is revised down
from53.3Mtlastmonthto52.4Mt,although
itisstillforecasthigherthanin2009/10(51.4
Mt).Thereductioncomparedwithlastmonth
relates mainly to soymeal, projected demand
forwhichisestimatedat32.5Mt,downfrom
33.2Mtlastmonth(30Mtin2009/10).This
reductionismadetotieinwiththelatestnew
supplystatistics.
France: wheat, barley and
maize usage estimated up
Afterlastmonth’sreduction,thismonthseesa
riseinprojectedgrainusage(wheat,barleyand
maize)inanimalfeedsfrom9.6Mtlastmonth
to9.8Mt.
We estimate grain usage in French industrial
feedsat:
 4.3 Mtforwheat(lastmonth:4.2 Mt)
 3.5 Mtformaize(lastmonth:3.4Mt).
January-March 2011
Wehaveincreasedestimatedmaizeusageinthe
feedstoreflectprovisionaldataforgrainusage
byindustrialfeedmanufacturersforMarch1
.
April-June 2011
The barley and maize prices have increased
since last month. Therefore wheat+enzyme
basedmeatpoultryfeedsmovetoamorecom-
petitive position against maize-based feeds.
Meanwhile wheat and barley make gains in
cattle feeds against substitution commodities
(cornglutenfeed,alfalfa)andmaize.
Spain: small reduction for
barley and gain for wheat
Projected barley usage is in decline with de-
mand share transferring to wheat in the last
weeksofcropyear2010/11.
We estimate grain usage in Spanish industrial
1 Source :FranceAgriMer
Table2.3:factorydeliveredpricesinCatalonia,Spain(€/t)

17
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
% Mt % Mt % Mt % Mt % Mt
cereals 71% 161.3 73% 166.4 73% 163.1 72% 157.7 71% 156.8
ofwhich wheat 21% 48.1 24% 54.4 24% 54.4 22% 49.4 23% 50.4
maize 22% 50.7 21% 48.7 20% 44.4 21% 45.8 21% 47.1
barley 17% 38.2 18% 41.7 19% 41.7 19% 40.8 18% 39.1
rye 1% 2.9 2% 4.1 2% 5.0 2% 3.4 2% 3.4
sorghum 3% 5.8 0% 0.4 0% 0.1 0% 1.0 0% 0.3
others 7% 15.8 7% 17.1 8% 17.5 8% 17.3 7% 16.5
peas 0% 1.1 0% 1.0 1% 1.2 1% 1.8 1% 1.5
wholeoilseeds 1% 1.6 1% 1.8 1% 1.4 0% 1.0 0% 1.0
cornglutenfeed 1% 2.9 1% 2.6 1% 2.6 1% 2.9 1% 2.7
meals 25% 55.4 23% 53.9 23% 51.4 24% 52.4 24% 53.0
ofwhichsoya 16% 37.2 15% 33.5 13% 30.0 15% 32.5 15% 32.2
rape 5% 10.3 5% 11.0 5% 12.2 5% 11.9 6% 12.4
sun 2% 3.9 2% 5.5 2% 5.3 2% 4.5 2% 5.1
corngerm 0% 0.3 0% 0.3 0% 0.3 0% 0.3 0% 0.3
groundnut 0% 0.1 0% 0.0 0% 0.1 0% 0.2 0% 0.1
cotton 0% 0.2 0% 0.2 0% 0.2 0% 0.2 0% 0.2
palmkernel 1% 2.5 1% 2.4 1% 2.2 1% 1.9 1% 1.9
lin 0% 0.2 0% 0.3 0% 0.3 0% 0.3 0% 0.3
fish 0% 0.8 0% 0.7 0% 0.7 0% 0.6 0% 0.6
tapioca 1% 1.4 0% 0.5 0% 0.0 0% 0.0 0% 0.0
brewingwastes 0% 0.5 0% 0.5 0% 0.5 0% 0.5 0% 0.5
citruspulpandDDGS 1% 1.8 1% 2.6 2% 3.5 2% 4.2 2% 4.8
total of the above materials 226.2 229.4 223.7 220.5 220.4
feedsat:
 3.90 Mtforwheat(lastmonth:3.85Mt)
 4.46 Mtforbarley(lastmonth:4.50Mt)
 4.44 Mtformaize(lastmonth:4.46Mt).
April-June 2011
Wheat usage rises at the expense of barley in
poultryfeeds.
Compared with last month, the wheat price
hasrisenby2€/t,thebarleypriceby4€/tand
themaizepriceby10€/t.
Netherlands: barley usage re-
vised down
Estimateddemandforthecerealshasdecreased
since last month to 6.6 Mt (wheat, barley and
maize combined) from 6.7 Mt last month.
Thereductionconcernsbarleyusageinthelast
monthsofcropyear2010/11.
We estimate grain usage in Dutch industrial
feedsin2010/11at:
 2.5 Mtforwheat(nochange)
 2.3 Mtformaize(nochange).
April-June 2011
Demand for barley, and to a lesser extent de-
mandformaize,isindeclinethroughthefinal
quarterof2010/11,withdemandtransferring
to imported substitution commodities (pulps
andsoyahusks).
Germany: wheat usage in ani-
mal feeds revised up
We have increased estimated wheat usage in
German animal feeds to reflect statistics for
grain usage in the industrial feed sector and
consumption data to January 2011. It rises to
from3.4Mtlastmonthto4.3Mt.
Table2.4:tonnageofthemainrawmaterialsusedinindustrialfeeds
andon-farm(EU27)

18
Wheat Barley Maize Total
09/10 2010/11 2011/12 09/10 2010/11 2011/12 09/10 2010/11 2011/12 09/10 10/11 11/12
CO OF CO OF CO OF CO OF CO OF CO OF
Germany 9.5 10.5 4.3 6.3 9.7 4.1 5.6 7.8 7.7 2.2 5.5 7.5 2.1 5.3 4.3 4.1 1.5 2.6 4.5 1.8 2.7 21.6 22.4 21.7
Belgium-Lux 1.9 1.6 1.4 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.6 3.8 3.5 3.6
Denmark 3.9 3.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.6 1.2 1.4 2.4 1.1 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 6.4 6.3
Spain 6.6 5.1 3.9 1.2 5.7 4.4 1.3 9.0 8.3 4.5 3.9 8.4 4.0 4.3 5.6 5.6 4.4 1.1 6.1 4.3 1.8 21.2 19.0 20.2
France 9.1 7.2 4.3 2.9 8.1 4.7 3.4 4.6 4.3 2.0 2.3 3.7 1.6 2.1 5.2 5.9 3.5 2.4 5.8 3.4 2.3 19.0 17.3 17.5
Greece 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.4
Ireland 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.3 2.1 2.2
Italy 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.6 1.9 1.4 0.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.2 9.6 9.4 7.6 1.7 9.6 7.6 2.0 13.4 13.2 13.1
TheNetherl. 3.0 2.5 2.9 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.3 6.8 6.6 6.5
Portugal 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.4
UnitedK. 6.5 6.4 4.4 2.0 6.4 4.3 2.1 3.5 3.2 0.9 2.2 3.0 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 10.6 10.1 9.9
Austria 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.6 2.6
Finland 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.7 1.6
Sweden 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.7 1.7
Poland 3.6 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 7.6 7.0 7.2
Hungary 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 4.2 4.0 4.0
CzechRep. 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 2.8 2.8 2.8
Slovakia 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.2
Estonia 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4
Latvia 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3
Lithuania 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.9
Slovenia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
Cyprus/Malta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3
Romania 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 6.5 6.5
Bulgaria 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2
EU27 54.4 49.4 50.4 41.7 40.8 39.1 44.4 45.8 47.1 140.5 135.9 136.7
CO=compound,OF=onfarm
Table2.5:wheat,barleyandmaizeconsumptioninEUanimalfeeds–industrialandon-farm(Mt)

european union wheat balances
European Union wheat balances
Methodology : Wheat balances reflect current prices and their implications for
domestic and foreign demand. The purpose of the balances is to bring to light a
potentialsurplusordeficitastheresultofanimbalanceinsupplyanddemandbased
on current prices. This information can then be used to predict price fluctuations
aimedatreducinganyimbalanceinthecomingmonths.Thepricechangescanthus
causesubstantialmodificationofthebalances.
Thesurplusordeficitisthedifferencebetweenclosingstocksontheopenmarket
andtheminimumlevelofstockrequiredbyusersineachcountryuntilthenexthar-
vestcomesin(safeguardstock).Asurplusindicatesthosequantitieswhichwilleither
besoldtointerventionorfindanoutletontheinternalorexportmarkets.Adeficit
indicatesarequirementforimports.
Somecountries,forexampleGreece,shownegativeopeningorclosingstocks(atthe
end or beginning of the crop year) because, for the sake of coherence, output is in-
cludedinthebalancefromJuly,althoughtheharvestactuallygetsunderwayinJune.
InterventionclosingstockattheendofJune,onanygivendateofcalculation,is:
•theopeninginterventionstockon1July
plus •totalofwheatalreadyofferedintointerventionforthecropyear
minus •quantitiesalreadysoldbyintervention
•projectedsalesbyinterventionthroughtotheendofthecropyear
19
Crop year 2010/11
EU wheat production in 2010 is revised up by 0.4 Mt al-
though wheat imports fall by 0.3 Mt. Internal demand
is revised up by 0.4 Mt (increase in demand in animal
feeds offset by a reduction in milling); wheat exports on
the world market are revised down by 0.3 Mt this month
to 19.1 Mt. EU wheat stock on June 30 2011 therefore re-
mains at a similar level to last month at between 8.5 and
9 Mt, which is almost 2 Mt less than the minimum stock
required (to comfortably supply the market from June 30
until the next harvest comes in). The situation remains
particularly tight in France, UK, Central Europe (Hungary
and Poland) and southeast Europe (Romania/Bulgaria).
Germany’s balance has tightened since last month.
After the upward price movements seen at the begin-
ning of May, this low stock forecast should prevent old
crop prices falling sharply even though the likelihood of
Russia’s and Ukraine’s early return to the market has
increased.
Crop year 2011/12
EU wheat production in 2011 falls sharply this month to
131.5 Mt (-3.6 Mt) due to the impact of the drought in the
west EU countries and to winterkill losses in Lithuania
and Poland. Consequently, projected wheat usage in on-
farm animal feeds falls sharply (-1.3 Mt) but demand
for wheat in animal feeds is still forecast higher than
in 2010/11 (with demand captured from other grains).
Demand for human consumption and industrial usage
is also set to be higher than in 2010/11 (mainly biofuels
sector) although this forecast has not altered significant-
ly since last month.
Intra-EU wheat trade is forecast to rise in 2011/12 on ac-
count of higher internal demand (Netherlands mainly).
Import volumes are set to fall sharply compared with
the levels of 2010/11 in Germany and France (assuming
that grain quality is in line with the norm in Germany).
UK wheat remains much more competitive than French
wheat for export to the south EU export destinations;
meanwhile south-east EU wheat is competitive against
UK wheat (and much cheaper than French wheat) for the
south EU.
We estimate that wheat stocks on the world market on
July 1 2011 will be 20 Mt less than at the start of 2010/11.
Global production is forecast to increase by 28 Mt but
our estimate has decreased sharply since last month
due to the drought in the EU, delays to plantings in the
northern USA and, to a smaller extent in the Black Sea
countries. World demand is still forecast high (690 Mt)
due to the projected rise in demand for feed wheat at
the expense of maize. Global wheat stocks at the end of
2011/12 will therefore decline slightly. World wheat trade
in 2011/12 is set to be higher than in 2010/11 due to re-
duced production in the Middle East and higher animal
sector demand in Asia. In this context, we still envisage
that the world market will require the totality of the EU’s
export availability despite the combined 14 Mt increase
in the availabilities in the Black Sea countries (Russia,
Ukraine, Kazakhstan). Since last month we have reduced
our forecast for EU wheat availability and we now fore-
cast exports at barely 17 Mt. With this level of exports, the
outlook for EU wheat is not heavy and stocks will remain
low at the end of 2011/12. Generally speaking, this situa-
tion should support new crop EU wheat prices, which are
much cheaper than US prices. The fact that the outlook
on the world market is fairly tight with relatively low
stock forecasts is a second support factor. Nevertheless,
wheat prices in the EU could still be momentarily influ-
enced downwards when Russia and Ukraine resume
exports in the summer.

20
kt 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
USA 1613 664 294 885 965
Canada 946 937 774 695 846
Argentina 11 2 1 6 6
TotalAmerica 2570 1603 1069 1586 1817
Norway
Switzerland
Turkey 23 4 12 20
Albania
Croatia 173 30 160 104
BosniaHerzegovina
Serbia-Montenegro 168 1 18 169 32
OtherEurope
Europe 364 35 178 285 52
Ukraine 179 3724 1038 59 1148
Rep.Moldova 3 64 21 28 20
RussianFed. 1230 405 311 64 250
Kazakhstan 422 89 249 213 228
TotalCIS 1834 4282 1619 364 1646
Australia 6 205 199 27 216
Un.ArabEmirates
China
misc. 12 10 25 9 106
Totalothers 18 215 224 38 322
Total 4786 6135 3090 2273 3837
Table3.1:breakdownofEU27imports
bycountryoforigin
Crop year 2010/11
Production
Wheat production in the EU27 is revised up
by0.4Mtthismonthto126.4Mt.Theadjust-
ment concerns Belgium, Latvia (+80 kt each)
and Romania (+250 kt). Last month we re-
ducedourharvestforecastforRomaniaby400
kt but this month the downward correction
is lessened to tie in other items on the balance
sheet.
Imports
Wheatimportsfromthirdcountriesarerevised
downby300ktthismonthto2.27Mt.There-
ductionreflectsthelowvolumesshippedfrom
some exporting countries to the EU and also
the low level of licence applications received
from importers. The reduction concerns im-
port volumes from the USA (-150 kt), Serbia
(-70 kt) and Australia (-80 kt). We previously
envisaged a small volume of Australian wheat
imports in Spain and Portugal; this forecast
has now been cancelled. US SRW wheat is
currentlyslightlydearerthanUKwheattothe
southEUcountries;SRWisevenlesscompeti-
tive than last month. Also, Serbian wheat ex-
portstotheEUhavebeenreducedbecausethe
countryhasdecidedtoblockexportsinthelast
monthsofthecropyear.
May 3, EU export licence fixations totalled
1.924Mt.TheCommissionwillneedtoissue
350ktinMayandJune(comparedwith100kt
issuedinApril).
Demand for wheat for human con-
sumption and industrial usage
Demand for wheat for human consumption
andindustrialusageisreviseddownagainthis
month, falling 0.2 Mt to 58.1 Mt. The reduc-
tion concerns milling wheat usage in France
(-130 kt), Germany (-90 kt) and Austria (-10
kt) and reflects the inclusion of the latest of-
ficial statistics in our forecasting (March for
France, February for Austria and January for
Germany).Also,demandforwheatinthebio-
ethanolsectorhasdecreasedby15ktinAustria
toreflectdatareleasedbyAgrarMarktAustria.
Total EU27 demand for
human consumption and
industrial usage is now fore-
cast 1 Mt up on the level of
2009/10, due to the growth
inwheatusageinthebiofuels
sector. Demand for milling
andstarchisnowforecaststa-
bleattheEUlevelcompared
with2009/10.
NB:Subscriberstothe“EU
Biofuels”moduleonourweb-
sitestrategie-grains.com,can
consultthefulllistofbioetha-
nolrefineriesandproduction
capacities,andabreakdown
ofbiofueloutputvolumesby
countryandcropyear.
Demand for wheat in
animal feeds
Demandforwheatinanimal
feeds is revised up by 600 kt
this month to 49.4 Mt; this
reflects the impact of several
changes:
 Wheat usage in indus-
trial feeds is revised up in
Germany to reflect the inclusion of official
statistics for January (feed production re-
vised up and wheat incorporations also re-
visedup);
 Wheat usage in industrial feeds revised up
in France (+70 kt) and Italy (+110 kt) to
reflect the latest demand statistics and to
reflectimportlevels;
 WheatusagereviseddowninPoland(-220
kt)duetoadjustmentsmadetosupplyand
demanditemsforthelast5years;
 On-farm consumption estimated down
200ktinFrancetoreflectthelateststatistics
for stocks held by stock keepers and wheat
users dated March 31. On-farm wheat us-
age in Germany is estimated down 200 kt
forthesamereason.
Total EU27 feed wheat usage in animal feeds
is now forecast 5 Mt down on the level of
2009/10.
Crop year 2011/12
Production
EU soft wheat production in 2011 is cur-
rentlyestimatedat131.5Mt.Sincelastmonth
it has decreased by 3.6 Mt, with reductions
for France (-1.5 Mt), Germany (-1.2 Mt) and
Britain (-325 kt). The reductions in all three
countries reflect the lack of rain in April and
thebeginningofMay.
Estimated production has also declined in
Lithuania (-320 kt) to reflect the extent of
winterkill this year on wheat area. In Poland,
estimatedproductionfallsby(-290kt)because
of the impact of the bad weather through the
winter(cold).
Despite this significant reduction, EU wheat
production is still forecast slightly higher than
the level of 2010 (+5.2 Mt). The countries
registering the largest increases are Germany
(+1.4 Mt), UK (+860 kt), Hungary (+570
kt),Poland(+410kt),andFrance(+370kt).
Imports
Little change this month: we estimate wheat
imports in 2011/12 at 3.8 Mt. We maintain
ourforecastforasharpincreasecomparedwith
2010/11 because of the better wheat harvest
expectedintheBlackSeacountries.Although
the exportable wheat surpluses in these coun-
triesarestillforecastsignificantlylowerthanthe
Supply and internal demand
2010/11: production revised up, imports revised down
2011/12: sharp fall in estimated production generates decline in projected
wheat usage in animal feeds

21
July-June
2011/12
carry-instockimportsgrainsexportshum/ind.consump.animalfeed
others (seeds, waste
and overseas usage)
intervention stock
free stock
requirement
intervention
free
total
production
of which:
ex-farm sales
from EU 27
from non-EU
supply
to EU 27
to non-EU
total
flour exp.
to non-EU
biofuels
internal
consump.
total
compound
feed
on-farm
feed
demand
free stock
carry-out stock
surplus/deficit
Ger.0132513252462820547321521291904694373087491157777857968541125573103927897012931293-2201518
Bel/L0225225202230301355412365492981349103216001727152919860518202302300235
Den.04584585359292116120115613533670329374413952349289566004594590460
Spn.033334924360313719931733443154163012567044141256479966602652650269
Fra.0198719873600732541627638627690397221052358911818753806746843383106936283023442344-2402585
Gre.0-232-2324414742849684928509232774012490-281-2810-277
Irl.-065657793661012203739500395696371325191147-07373076
Ita.07777773273331510918456555497210547618571421436287769607607600758
Neth.02282281233516047666944350297396642300287349638902802800277
Por.08686641160129143943095015093534414135108888089
U.K.-0136113611574266962218394226021760651246635564274300212736016674-017201720-1201843
Aust.-066146513454993197360820929433958621212191601829-01441440147
Fin.41391438466501054357-0263102622551051505993441161200116
Swed.094942346174726212822151224042979472748024784253208989086
Pol.036736794853205101778136044676044613140134117991050953006476470643
Hun.016316341897904430106631612392012371224347419202382380239
Cz.R.-06956954320350505013225128002241056151110464651914308-07417410739
Slk.019919913325601588243142000420620120140401841840182
Est.-047473875804921142067106620831440-05252052
Lat.01241241137305215685454862178471621643812648146101081080108
Lit.-01881881844763211063062531136302266482181171949-01611610160
Sln.01212127129427231-0173220151323111825202020016
Cyp.00012103241390139001390013900000
Mal.0009300390360036003604400
Rom.019619657874615564991187854342440342023062763210178178-100279
Bul.0117117379121739351091498136311121250489336377801571570157
EU 15465536557991282264937391320731728113942467981135608439578425613907124489475807584-5808183
EU254834883521219712384137751579392204515454551461177636247608497265828148200497359738-58010322
EU27486618665131548243223837168372243221680659933118264745227750445679215829941007010074-68010757
Table3.2:EU27wheatbalanceJuly/June2011/12(kt)

22
July-June
2010/11
carry-instockimportsgrainsexportshum/ind.consump.animalfeed
others (seeds, waste
and overseas usage)
demand
intervention stock
free stock
requirement
intervention
free
total
production
of which:
ex-farm sales
from EU 27
from non-EU
supply
to EU 27
to non-EU
total
flour exp.
to non-EU
biofuels
internal
consump.
total
compound
feed
on-farm
feed
free stock
carry-out stock
surplus/deficit
Ger.02019201923243197903760312905343093048878411582478451054742636284103927727013251325-2601588
Bel/L021021020012892101520337252990349106415781551138117060497802252250227
Den.09949945056357126419140622833470327370414362268289596104584580456
Spn.04824824689337034988907103222152212986508438941190479885703333-210246
Fra.03271327135639329289155398316366129671025558911508516719243182874106337843019871987-4502434
Gre.0-282-2823615791758335192250917974010650-232-2320-236
Irl.-0717163929901008383830038350324825519944-06565062
Ita.09219213317356290187016285496210547520711475596287792307777770779
Neth.02432431362401067568350713239191092272249549545502282280232
Por.010710762106457129112094815093323114120508686081
U.K.-0186218621487861639617752220929771155769634264104376203436016392-013611361-4201778
Aust.-01313141411383966182955939939433959622713097601823-066-140150
Fin.271882157244009791375250102493851951895983641391430139
Swed.0929221842671225552501031219043478580549730884246109494089
Pol.14924939077355899328541134455604449309412941799105095650367367-270639
Hun.15432247636181140420810582601233201231115034540450163163-70232
Cz.R.93734828398536048481334611080571051151510654501914154-06956950697
Slk.3644648111857321742271246000460690120154301991990199
Est.-0909032487050215867106619931455-04747050
Lat.0999997332121395688752178471622433920448127101241240127
Lit.035835817081166218982134731436305402443581172001-01881880192
Sln.017171528082572812165220143242311824601212015
Cyp.010101394221390139001390013900000
Mal.03310210330330033003300000
Rom.0125125596646298665110951063342440342024762764550196196-80280
Bul.722322937922013405512945241283114126850033639380117117-40152
EU 15271019210218955702212521131300261630416715452471135490939203413013902123469465536557-14808026
EU2531012763130731166152342321621552722151617530534371177502047240486175821146920483488352-182010178
EU2731713111134271263732390522731659782390519117581441182503451928493646784157313486618665-194010610
Table3.3:EU27wheatbalanceJuly/June2010/11(kt)

Strategie grains

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Ähnlich wie Strategie grains

Ähnlich wie Strategie grains (20)

Strategie grains