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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
a.k.a. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis

PRINCIPLE COMPONENTS
       ANALYSIS
PC1 (group 1)

                       PC3 (group 3)




                PC2 (group 2)
Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
most sites




Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
most sites



                                       farthest
                                        north




Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
most sites



                                       farthest
                                        north




   unusual
     site



Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
LINEAR
REGRESSION
yt = axt + b + ε
Tjj = 0.23PC1 + -0.23PC3t+1
      + 0.16PC2t+1 + -0.09PC1t+1
      + -0.46
Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
“   Tree-ring-derived records have played a prominent role
    in a empts to establish how climate has varied
                     ”
    in the recent past.
                                   — Jones et al., The Holocene, 2009
G L O B A L T E M P E R AT U R E R E C O N S T R U C T I O N S




Photograph: Marianna
Long, temperature-sensitive tree-ring records have been used to estimate
                        average temperatures across the entire hemisphere or globe.




Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
Source: Osborne and Briffa, 2006
“   ...this study provides evidence for intervals of
    significant warmth in the [Northern Hemisphere]
    within the so-called Medieval Warm Period and for
    significantly colder intervals during the so-called
                        ”
    Li le Ice Age period.
                                   — Osborne and Briffa, 2006
LINEAR
REGRESSION
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
Photograph: Mark Anbinder
“   Tree-rings also allow the reconstruction of large-scale
    regional or global temperature pa erns defined by
    large networks of chronologies.
                                    ”— Brian Luckman
Source: Briffa et al., Global and Planetary Change, 2004
h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
1883
“THE LOUDEST SOUND IN MODERN HISTORY”
Krakatau, Indonesia 1883
h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
1816
THE “YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER”
Mount Tambora, Indonesia Its eruption in 1815 was the most explosive since AD 180
Source: Briffa et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
Huaynaputina Peru
“Trees are not thermometers or rain gagues.” Keith Briffa and colleagues
THE
DIVERGENCE
  PROBLEM
the ‘divergence problem’ is defined as the tendency for
        tree growth at some previously temperature-limited
        northern sites to demonstrate a weakening in mean
        temperature response in recent decades.




Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
“   It is important to stress that not all high-latitude regions
    display this apparent decoupling between observed and
    dendroclimatically estimated temperatures.
                                                          ”
                                       — Jones et al., The Holocene, 2009
Source: Briffa et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
SURFACE TEMPERATURE
RECONSTRUCTIONS
FOR T H E LAS T 2 , 00 0 Y E A R S


                       NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                                 OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

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GEOG3839.13, Global temperature reconstructions