Slides and audio from a webinar presenting the results of an ICCT study that evaluates worldwide historical and potential impacts of fuel quality and vehicle emission standards, presents a global policy roadmap through 2030, and quantifies the benefits to public health and the climate. The study finds that if countries worldwide followed a policy path to Euro 6/VI-equivalent emission standards and ultra-low sulfur fuel, early deaths from road vehicle emissions could be reduced by 75% in the year 2030.
Impact of vehicle and fuel standards on premature mortality and emissions
1. The Impact of Stringent Fuel and
Vehicle Standards on Premature
Mortality and Emissions!
Cristiano Façanha, Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller,
Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg!
ICCT Roadmap Webinar Series!
December 4th, 2013!
3. Global Transportation Roadmap Series!
THE IMPACT OF STRINGENT FUEL AND
VEHICLE STANDARDS ON PREMATURE
MORTALITY AND EMISSIONS
ICCT’S GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION HEALTH AND CLIMATE ROADMAP SERIES
AUTHORS: Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Cristiano Façanha, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg
www.theicct.org
communications@theicct.org
BEIJING
|
BERLIN
|
BRUSSELS
|
SAN FRANCISCO
|
WASHINGTON
2!
5. There is wide discrepancy regarding the stringency
of vehicle emission standards worldwide!
Standards
shown for
LDVs!
1/
I
2/
II
3/
III
4/
IV
5/
V
6/
VI
Grey: no standards/
import standards or
unknown.!
4!
6. A global focus on health impacts from transportation
is critical to provide policy insights!
BEST PRACTICE
AUSTRALIA, CANADA, EU-28
JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, US
NON-EU EUROPE AND RUSSIA
CHINA AND
INDIA
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
ASIA-PACIFIC-40
LATIN AMERICA
5!
7. The study relies on a well-informed policy roadmap
towards cleaner vehicles and fuels!
EU-28
Canada
U.S.
Japan
Australia
South Korea
China- Metro buses
China
India (early adopters)
India (nat’l)
Brazil
Mexico
Latin America-31
Russia
Non-EU Europe
Asia-Pacific-40
Africa
Middle East
1990
Baseline Standards
Accelerated Standards
1995
Pre-Euro
Euro III
2000
2005
Euro 1
Euro 2
Euro IV
2010
Euro 3
Euro V
2015
Euro 4
Euro VI
HDV Standards Timeline!
2020
2025
Euro 5
2030
Euro 6
Next-Generation
6!
8. Latest vehicle controls can reduce emissions and
premature mortality worldwide by 75% !!
Best Practice
Non-EU Europe,
Russia, &
Latin America
China & India
Other Countries
110,000
At a global level, health
impacts from urban vehicle
particle emissions will
increase 50% by 2030
unless new vehicle and fuel
standards are adopted.
100,000
90,000
70,000
60,000
-79%
-80%
50,000
40,000
30,000
-74%
20,000
-7%
10,000
Baseline
Accelerated
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2030
2000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
0
2000
Early deaths
80,000
Globally new
standards could save
210,000 early deaths
in 2030 and 25 million
of years of life through
2030.
(%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
7!
9. And they can cut short-lived climate pollutants by over
80%!
Baseline
Accelerated
400
Total non-CO2 GHG emissions (MtCO2e)
350
300
80%
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2005
Best Practice
2010
2015
2020
China & India
2025
2030
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015
2020
Non-EU Europe & Russia
2025
2030
Other Countries
8!
10. Framework for evaluating the health impacts of
transportation emissions!
SOURCE
EMISSIONS
CONCENTRATION
HEALTH EFFECTS
Vehicle
Activity
Tons of PM
Emitted
Urban Air
Quality
Early Deaths
and Years of
Life Lost
Emission
Factors
!
Historical data from government agencies in major markets, IEA in other countries!
Projected based on changes in population and PPP-GDP!
Emission factors: grams per vehicle-km!
!
!
!
ConcentrationResponse
Function
Source: vehicle-km traveled by road vehicles in urban areas!
!
!
!
Urban
Intake
Fractions
Consider vehicle fleet composition, fuel type, emission control technology!
Influenced by emission standards and diesel sulfur content!
Emissions: metric tons, product of activity and emission factors!
9!
11. Emission factors!
! Reasons for using emission factors!
!
!
!
Reflect policy effects on real-world emissions!
Lifetime average emission factors include deterioration!
Depend on speed, temperature, road grade, vehicle types!
! Reasons for applying COPERT factors across regions!
!
!
!
!
!
Most countries follow European classification scheme for
vehicle standards (Euro 1/I through Euro 6/VI)!
Developed by strong research/academic team!
Well-supported, up-to-date standards and technologies!
Comprehensive, public documentation!
Emission factors broadly in line with other models!
12. Vehicle emission limits and ultra-low sulfur diesel are key
drivers of PM emission reduction!
0.45
Diesel: 2,000 ppm
500 ppm
350 ppm
50 ppm
10 ppm
HHDT
Average lifetime emission factor
(grams PM 2.5 /km)
0.40
LDV
-99%
Fuel Sulfur Level
-25%
0.35
0.30
0.25
-38%
-99%
0.20
-22%
-68%
0.15
0.10
-77%
-20%
0.05
-33%
-23%
-95%
0.00
Uncontrolled
Euro 1/I
Euro 2/II
Euro 3/III
Euro 4/IV
-90%
Euro 5/V
Euro 6/VI
DPF!
DPF!
11!
13. Vehicle turnover translates standards into fleetwide
emission reductions!
Accelerated
1400
Vehicle-km traveled (billion)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
4,000
NOX (metric kiloton)
! Figure: HDV
activity and NOx
emissions by
control level in
China!
! Baseline: China IV
yields initial
reductions,
outpaced by VKT
growth!
! Accelerated:
China V and VI
result in sustained
NOx reductions!
Baseline
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000
2005
Uncontrolled
2010
2015
Euro I
2020
2025
Euro II
2030
2000
Euro III
2005
Euro IV
2010
2015
Euro V
2020
2025
2030
Euro VI
12!
14. Accelerated standards drive convergence in
average emissions per vehicle-km!
Baseline
Accelerated
0.10
Bars = variation in emissions (g/km)!
PM (g/km)
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
NOX (g/km)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
2010
2015
Best Practice
2020
China & India
2025
2030
Latin America
2010
2015
2020
Non-EU Europe & Russia
2025
2030
Other Countries
13!
15. Emissions projections!
Vehicle-km traveled
(billion)
1.3%
Non-EU Europe
& Russia
Latin America
Other Countries
7.4%
10,000
4.3%
5,000
3.4%
3.5%
Health effects quantified
300
200
100
-76%
-83%
-4%
-76%
-83%
0
10,000
5,000
-71%
-82%
-40%
0
-55%
-71%
4,000
3,000
2,000
Accelerated
2025
2015
2020
2005
2010
-70%
2000
2015
2020
2005
2010
2000
2025
2030
2015
2020
2005
2010
2000
2025
2030
2015
2020
2005
2010
2000
2025
2030
2015
2020
2005
Baseline
2025
-54%
-66%
2030
-78%
-47%
2010
0
2030
1,000
2000
!
PM (metric kiloton)
!
China & India
0
NOX (metric kiloton)
!
Figure: (top row)
vehicle-km, (below)
PM, NOx, HC
emissions!
Baseline: sustained
decreases in Best
Practice regions!
Accelerated policies
reverse emission
trends in many
regions (2020-2030)!
By 2030, 80%
reduction in PM
compared to
baseline in regions
yet to adopt best
practices!
HC (metric kiloton)
!
Best Practice
(%) Data labels indicate annualized growth in vehicle activity
(%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
14!
16. Urban concentration with intake fractions!
SOURCE
EMISSIONS
CONCENTRATION
Gridded
Emissions
Inventory
Gridded Air
Quality
Chemical
Transport
Model
HEALTH EFFECTS
Aggregate
Health
Impacts
Disaggregation
Vehicle
Activity
Tons of PM
Emitted
Emission
Factors
Urban
Intake
Fractions
ConcentrationResponse
Function
Urban Air
Quality
15!
17. Intake fraction!
! Intake fraction is the ratio of the mass of pollutant
inhaled to mass emitted!
! !
! !
!
! Intake fraction varies by source and setting!
! Size of exposed population!
! Proximity of emissions to population!
! Environmental persistence of pollutant!
16!
20. Estimating impacts from exposure!
! The “relative risk” predicts how much more often
deaths will occur at higher concentrations!
! The size of the urban population and the baseline
disease rate both influence the final estimate of
total early deaths!
! RRs are estimated for 3 disease categories that
lead to premature mortality!
! Lung cancer, adults over 30!
! Cardiopulmonary disease, adults over 30!
! Acute respiratory infection (ARI), children under 5!
19!
21. Estimating impacts: nuances of the concentrationresponse function!
1.8
Relative Risk
1.7
1.6
C = 10 g/m 3
RR = 0.038
1.5
1.4
1.3
C = 10 g/m 3
RR = 0.110
1.2
1.1
1
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Ambient PM2.5 ( g/m3)
!
!
!
Two forms of concentration-response functions, linear and log-linear
(Ostro et al. 2005)!
The background concentration can influence the increase in relative risk!
We take the average of the change in risk near the counterfactual and
at the background concentration!
20!
22. Premature mortality from on-road urban PM2.5
emissions!
Best Practice
Non-EU Europe,
Russia, &
Latin America
China & India
Other Countries
110,000
100,000
90,000
Early deaths
80,000
70,000
60,000
-79%
-80%
50,000
40,000
30,000
-74%
20,000
-7%
10,000
Baseline
!
!
!
Accelerated
2025
2030
2020
2010
2015
2005
2000
2025
2030
2020
2010
2015
2005
2000
2025
2030
2020
2010
2015
2005
2030
2000
2025
2020
2010
2015
2005
2000
0
(%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
Best Practice countries show decreased years of life lost under baseline
conditions!
Urbanization and rising emissions cause increased baseline health impacts
in China & India and Other Countries!
Accelerated policies reduce impacts across regions!
21!
23. Comparing health impacts !
China & India
Non-EU Europe
& Russia
Latin America
Other Countries
Baseline
Age-adjusted mortality rate
250
200
150
100
50
0
250
200
150
100
2030
2020
2010
2030
2000
2020
2010
2030
2000
2020
2010
2030
2000
2020
2010
2030
2000
2020
0
2010
50
2000
Accelerated
Age-adjusted mortality rate
! Rates control
for population
size and age!
! Accelerated
policies bring
mortality rates
to comparable
low levels
across regions !
Best Practice
Australia
Japan
China
Brazil
Non-EU Europe
Africa
Canada
South Korea
India
Latin America-31
Russia
Asia-Pacific-40
EU-28
U.S.
Mexico
Middle East
22!
24. Comparison of benefits estimates between this
analysis and Shindell et al. (2011)!
300,000
Annual mortalities prevented
Range given by Shindell et al. 2011
Results from this analysis
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
North America
(U.S. + Canada)
China
India
Western
Europe
(EU-28)
Western FSU
South &
North Africa/
(Russia+
Central Africa Middle East
Non-EU Europe)
(Africa)
Latin America
(Brazil,
Mexico,
Latin America-31)
Global
23!
26. Main Messages!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Very clean vehicle and fuel technologies exist. These technologies are
already cost effective, and costs will continue to decline.!
Despite progress in developed countries, current penetration in
developing countries is insufficient to limit the worsening in health
impacts.!
Standards have proved to be an effective policy to bring substantial
health and climate co-benefits.!
The adoption of new standards would cause emission rates around the
world to converge at much reduced levels, resulting in a drop in PM2.5 ,
NOX, and HC emissions.!
By a conservative estimate, reducing PM2.5 emissions through new
standards will prevent over 210,000 early deaths in the year 2030 in
urban areas. !
The full health benefits of new policies increase when considering
nonfatal health impacts, impacts in rural areas, and impacts of ozone.!
25!
27. Thank you! For more information:!
ICCT’S Global Transportation Health and Climate Roadmap Series!
Global Transportation Energy and Climate Roadmap!
http://www.theicct.org/global-transportation-energy-and-climate-roadmap!
The Impact of Vehicle and Fuel
Standards on Premature
Mortality and Emissions!
http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap!
Roadmap Model!
http://www.theicct.org/
global-transportationroadmap-model!
Cristiano Façanha
cristiano@theicct.org!
26!