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Evolution of Heavy-Duty Vehicle
    GHG and Fuel Economy Standards
             The Importance of the 2011 US Rule



Drew Kodjak, International Council on Clean Transportation
Global Regulatory Landscape
Country/    Regulation
                            2010       2011      2012       2013       2014    2015     2016       2017       2018
Region        Type
                                                                               Regulation implemented starting MY
               Fuel
 Japan                                                                                        2015
             economy

 United     GHG/Fuel      Standard                                       Regulation implemented starting MY 2014
                                   Final rule
 States     efficiency    proposal                                      ( mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016)

            GHG/Fuel                Standard
 Canada                                      Final rule                 Regulation implemented starting MY 2014
            efficiency              proposal

                           Test   Industry                                     Regulation implemented starting MY
              Fuel                         Standard
  China                procedure standard           Final rule                                2015
           consumption                     proposal
                        finalized proposal
                                                              Test
European                                                               Mandatory efficiency reporting and
               GHG         Technical studies              procedure
 Union                                                                     regulatory development
                                                           finalized
                                                                                                Additional reqs. for
            End-user
                       Requirements for tractors and Additional reqs. for existing tractors and existing trailers and
California purchase
                           trailers (MY 2011+)                 trailers (<MY 2010)              reefers (<MY 2010)
          requirements



                                                                                                                     2
US Technology Assessment
  National Academy of Sciences Report (March 2010) found 35 – 50%
   improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe




   National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for
   Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus
   (Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of the
                                                                                                                                   Slide   3
                                                                                                                                           	

   combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N)
   where %FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.
Elements of US Rule: Three Vehicle Categories
    Class 7/8 Tractors




                                            Class 2B/3 Pickup
                                            Trucks and Vans




                         Everything Else!




                                                         Slide 4
US HDV GHG / Fuel Economy Rule
US program is four rules bundled together: Engine, Tractor,
Vocational, Pickups and Vans.
Vehicle Type   Subclass                              Engine     Vehicle only Vehicle + Engine
Tractors       Day Cabs     Class 7 Low/mid Roof       6%           4%            10.3%
                            Class 7 High Roof          6%           7%            13.0%
                            Class 8 Low/mid Roof       6%           3%             9.1%
                            Class 8 High Roof          6%           8%            13.6%
               Sleeper      Class 8 Low Roof           6%          12%            17.5%
                            Class 8 Mid Roof           6%          12%            18.0%
                            Class 8 High Roof          6%          17%            23.4%

Vocational     Light HD  Class 2b - 5                  9%            0%            8.6%
               Medium HD Class 6 - 7                   9%            0%            8.9%
               Heavy HD  Class 8                       5%            1%            5.9%

Pickups & Vans Gasoline                                                           12.0%
               Diesel                                                             17.0%

        Largest reductions – and regulatory attention – focus on the vehicle categories
        that use the most fuel. In HD sector, combination tractors and pickup trucks
        use about ¾ of the fuel.


                                                                                          Slide 5
Baseline Engine + Vehicle (MY2010)




                                     Slide 6
Compliance Example: Working with the GEM




                                           Determined by
                                           testing

                                           “yes/no”
                                           parameters




                                                 Slide 7
Class 8 Tractor Sleeper Cab High Roof Compliance Pathway

    94 g CO2 / 94 g CO2
    Ton-mile                 23% Reduction



                      0.76
                               2.19
                                        5.0


                                                 0.31
                                                        5.64

                                                               Overlap
                     72 g CO2/ton-mile (MY2017 Std)            with Aero




                                                                 6.86


                                                                    Slide 8
Closing Thoughts
  HDV GHG / fuel economy standards are a critically
   important area of regulatory development for the US
   and globally.
  The search for continually improving upon regulatory
   design (metric, cycle, test method, etc) will continue
   for the next ve to ten years at least.
  Important questions remain:
   –    Simulation modeling vs. chassis dyno
   –    Performance vs. technology standards
   –    Test method accuracy and repeatability
   –    Incorporating trailers
   –    Hybrid technology development and incorporation
   –    Opportunities for global alignment of programs

                                                            Slide 9

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Evolution of Heavy-Duty Vehicle GHG and Fuel Economy Standards

  • 1. Evolution of Heavy-Duty Vehicle GHG and Fuel Economy Standards The Importance of the 2011 US Rule Drew Kodjak, International Council on Clean Transportation
  • 2. Global Regulatory Landscape Country/ Regulation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Region Type Regulation implemented starting MY Fuel Japan 2015 economy United GHG/Fuel Standard Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 Final rule States efficiency proposal ( mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016) GHG/Fuel Standard Canada Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 efficiency proposal Test Industry Regulation implemented starting MY Fuel Standard China procedure standard Final rule 2015 consumption proposal finalized proposal Test European Mandatory efficiency reporting and GHG Technical studies procedure Union regulatory development finalized Additional reqs. for End-user Requirements for tractors and Additional reqs. for existing tractors and existing trailers and California purchase trailers (MY 2011+) trailers (<MY 2010) reefers (<MY 2010) requirements 2
  • 3. US Technology Assessment   National Academy of Sciences Report (March 2010) found 35 – 50% improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus (Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of the Slide 3 combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N) where %FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.
  • 4. Elements of US Rule: Three Vehicle Categories Class 7/8 Tractors Class 2B/3 Pickup Trucks and Vans Everything Else! Slide 4
  • 5. US HDV GHG / Fuel Economy Rule US program is four rules bundled together: Engine, Tractor, Vocational, Pickups and Vans. Vehicle Type Subclass Engine Vehicle only Vehicle + Engine Tractors Day Cabs Class 7 Low/mid Roof 6% 4% 10.3% Class 7 High Roof 6% 7% 13.0% Class 8 Low/mid Roof 6% 3% 9.1% Class 8 High Roof 6% 8% 13.6% Sleeper Class 8 Low Roof 6% 12% 17.5% Class 8 Mid Roof 6% 12% 18.0% Class 8 High Roof 6% 17% 23.4% Vocational Light HD Class 2b - 5 9% 0% 8.6% Medium HD Class 6 - 7 9% 0% 8.9% Heavy HD Class 8 5% 1% 5.9% Pickups & Vans Gasoline 12.0% Diesel 17.0% Largest reductions – and regulatory attention – focus on the vehicle categories that use the most fuel. In HD sector, combination tractors and pickup trucks use about ¾ of the fuel. Slide 5
  • 6. Baseline Engine + Vehicle (MY2010) Slide 6
  • 7. Compliance Example: Working with the GEM Determined by testing “yes/no” parameters Slide 7
  • 8. Class 8 Tractor Sleeper Cab High Roof Compliance Pathway 94 g CO2 / 94 g CO2 Ton-mile 23% Reduction 0.76 2.19 5.0 0.31 5.64 Overlap 72 g CO2/ton-mile (MY2017 Std) with Aero 6.86 Slide 8
  • 9. Closing Thoughts   HDV GHG / fuel economy standards are a critically important area of regulatory development for the US and globally.   The search for continually improving upon regulatory design (metric, cycle, test method, etc) will continue for the next ve to ten years at least.   Important questions remain: –  Simulation modeling vs. chassis dyno –  Performance vs. technology standards –  Test method accuracy and repeatability –  Incorporating trailers –  Hybrid technology development and incorporation –  Opportunities for global alignment of programs Slide 9