The document discusses a project called Space Evaders that aims to prevent collisions between spacecraft and debris in space. Their team is developing methods to analyze data and find ways to prevent debris-causing collisions, which could eventually make major orbital regions unusable. If collisions and debris continue to increase unchecked, it could lead to a dangerous proliferation of collisions known as a Kessler cascade. The team's goal is to use data-driven approaches to help avoid this scenario and keep space accessible for future use.
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
Space Evaders Hacking for Diplomacy week 8
1. Space Evaders
Project Steer Clear
Increased use of space is leading to much higher probability of collisions and
a rapidly expanding volume of debris. This propagation of collisions has the
potential to become a Kessler cascade that would render the major orbital
regions unusable in the future. Our team is using data methods to find ways
to prevent debris-causing collisions.
76
Sponsor
Amber Charlesworth
Mentor
Pablo Quintanilla
Mentor
Bart Burstein
Kate Boudreau Dave Gabler Tyler Dammann Matthew Kaseman
12
in total
this week
Interviews
2. Where we are
Main idea from last week:
crowd source size/shape data
(looking shaky)
vs.
New idea from last night:
Debris footprint index
(feeling optimistic)
3. Debris footprint index
- Modeled on carbon footprint
- Raise awareness of debris
causes
- Give regulators/treaty
negotiators a starting point
Similarities to environmental pollution
- All users claim they are responsible
- Nobody actually knows who creates the most debris
- Bad actors are not currently known or punished
- Good actors are not currently known or rewarded
6. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results
Orbital/ Debris
academic expert
Size / shape data will
improve the CA
warning system
“How much can this
MVP improve current
modelling?”
“Orders of
magnitude”
Need to refine, but
on the right path
Amateur
Astronomers
We can crowdsource
size/shape data
acquisition
Ask for photos of
small objects in LEO
Equipment
requirements are
not met
(telescopes/motors)
Institution
Astronomers
We can crowdsource
size/shape data
acquisition
Ask for photos of
small objects in LEO
Researchers now
focus on light glint
(Many of them)
Series photos
needed for tumbling
Customer Discovery
Bottom Line: This info will help, but crowdsourcing will require new
infrastructure for amateurs
7. Key Activities
Crowdsourced data viability:
- Determine telescope specification requirements
- Determine price per unit
- Determine number of units required
- Which beneficiary will finance it?
- Identify worldwide stewards who would receive and use the telescopes
Alternate sources of data:
- Government telescopes can help?
- Feasibility of space-based system
- Cost/beneficiary willingness to pay?
Debris targeting:
- Determine how to provide “orders” that include location/time information
Usable output:
- Determine how to process optical results into usable data for propagation models
8. Key Activities
Data quality:
- High accuracy
- Rapid response to add new debris
- Quality control for data inputs
- Collaborate with satellite ope
Integration
- Hands-on approach with propagation modelers
Debris targeting:
- Determine how to provide “orders” that include location/time information
Usable output:
- Determine how to process optical results into usable data for propagation models
9. Critical Resources
Human Financial Physical Intellectual
- Astronomers
incentivized to
spend time imaging
debris
- Propagation
modelers
include our data
and test
effectiveness
(AFRL,
Universities, etc)
- Telescope
acquisition and
maintenance
- Database creation
and maintenance
- Compensation for
contributors?
- JSpOC catalog
- Capable
telescopes / motors
- Servers for
information
- Academic models
- Accountability
mechanism for
operators who don’t
share information
- Incentive for
astronomers and
operators to
contribute
10. Key Partners
Partner They provide? We provide?
JSpOC / JFCC Access to current data
about objects in orbit,
modeling ability
Improved data
Satellite Operators Size/shape data of
current and future
satellites
Improved conjunction
warnings
Amateur telescope
operators
Images of debris objects
in orbit
Accomplish social good;
Potential financial
compensation
FAA / FCC / NOAA Size/shape data sharing
requirements for
satellite operators
Improved safety in
space;
more control of debris
outcomes
Academics / AFRL Inclusion in propagation
models;
Hypothesis testing
Rich new data set
11. Deployment
AFRL
validation
Acquire
satellite data
Acquire
debris data
Integrate with
JSpOC
Provide data
to academics
Improve
models
Insight: Improved atmospheric models will improve the ability to gain size
and shape information
Correspond
with JSpOC
Talk with
astronomers
Collaborate w/ government to create
sharing requirements
Locate existing strategic telescope /
motor combinations
12. ty;
Mission Model Canvas
Beneficiaries
Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs
Buy-In/Support
Deployment
Value PropositionKey Activities
Key Resources
Key Partners
█ JSpOC / JFCC
- Amateur telescope
operators
- FAA to provide data
from applications
- FCC to provide on-
orbit enforcement
Observation:
-Prioritization
-Location
Data:
-Receive data
-Develop size/shape
information
-Distribute information
in usable format
- Capable telescopes/
motors
- JSpOC catalog
███ Improved sharing
of data (both directions).
██ Low cost methods to
prevent losses to very
expensive, hard to
replace items in space
██ Increase ability to
predict accurate
collisions and assess
orbital risk
██ Reduce “Boy who
Cried Wolf” effect
█ Commercial willing to
supply data and follow
best practices.
█ JFCC Space willing
to update propagation
model
- Locate telescope /
motor combos at
strategic locations
- Incentivize
contributions
- Collaborate w/ FAA /
FCC to put size / shape
sharing rqmts in place
►MJ: Needs accurate
baseline data to build
basic scientific data
accuracy
►DM: Needs to
reduce nuisance
messages and
become an
indispensable source
of factual data
►VV//DL: Need to
eliminate the
uncertainty of
conjunction warnings
- Telescope and motor acquisition / shipping to sites
- Incentives to observers
- Database management
- Improve confidence in SSA info to the point that
maneuver decisions are data based, not politics based.
- Frequency of JSpOC CAs decreases as models are
improved
- Taxonomy of objects in orbit created
14. Products
& Services
Customer
Jobs
John,
satellite operator for a
commercial space-based company.
Gains
Pains
Gain Creators
Pain
Relievers
►Many Conjunction
Alerts
►Coordination with
other operators
█ Minimize risk, fuel cost,
and time investment related
to conjunction risks
█ Improved understanding
of Conjunction Alerts
█ Reduce time to make
contact with other
operators
- Easy to
access
information
- Size and
shape data
about other
satellites
►Complete profitable
satellite operations.
- Accomplish
mission
-Avoid collisions
Customer Archetype (Satellite Operator)
● 44-year-old space industry veteran with 15+
years in the industry
● Hired to monitor/adjust satellite position to
ensure customer needs can be met.
● Very passionate about his job
● Enjoys problem-solving, dislikes wasted time
● Wants to be a good citizen of space
Space Evaders:
Value Proposition Canvas
16. MVP: Composite Debris Footprint
Abstract: formula to assess the composite cost that
operators’ debris causes.
Required elements:
-Danger of current debris orbit based on current/future use of nearby orbits
-Predictability and trackability of debris
-Tendency of debris to further break up
-Debris mass and damage potential
-Time debris will remain on orbit
Output:
-Comparable number to represent total debris by operator or object
17. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results
Private SSA
consultant
JSpOC could improve
their catalog with
size/shape data
Show MVP, discuss
usefulness of data
Data could be useful. It
is not currently used by
JSpOC due to legacy
equipment
considerations that may
no longer apply.
Orbital/ Debris
academic expert
There are a large
number of people
whose CA models
would be improved by
size / shape data.
Present MVP, “how
much could this
improve current
modelling?”
Data could improve
modeling by “orders of
magnitude”, but
additional shape
classification and
atmospheric information
would be required to
take full advantage
Private GEO
Satellite Operator
Accurate size/ shape
data could promote
best practices among
satellite operators.
Show the MVP
discuss possibilities of
improved modelling
and current/ future
decision making.
Data would likely not
change decision making
process “Do Not Move”
as standard policy.
Customer Discovery
18. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results
Amateur
Astronomers
Size / shape
information can be
found using ground-
based technology
available to the public.
Discuss requirements
and capabilities to get
the information in the
MVP
This level of resolution
is generally out of reach
for amatuer
astronomers, due to
equipment and tracking
limitations.
Institution
Astronomers
Size / shape
information can be
found using ground-
based technology
available to research
institutions.
Discuss requirements
and capabilities to get
the information in the
MVP
Light glint is seen as a
more useful source of
information than
imagery, serious
collection would be a
major undertaking that
requires a series of
images and is beyond
this institution's
capabilities.
Customer Discovery
19. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results
FAA Official The government
collects size and
shape data during the
process, and would
be willing to share it.
Ask the official about
registration data and
whether the FAA is
allowed to share the
information.
Size / shape data is
required for registration,
but is proprietary. No
sharing possible.
Non-US private
space operator /
early adopter
Satellite operators
would be willing to
share the size / shape
data of their satellites.
“Who would you be
willing to share
physical details of
your satellites with,
and what would it
take?”
Would be willing to
share, but only to a
responsible party.
Would prefer a UN
instead of US
organization.
Customer Discovery