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Customer Development in the
             High Tech Enterprise



             MBA 295-F/EMBA 295-F

          Customer and Agile Development

                      Steve Blank
                   sblank@kandsranch.com




                                           2
3/27/10
Class 3: Agenda

!    Logistics/Questions
!    CASE: E-Ink
!    Product Development
!    Boyd & the OODA Loop
!    Customer Development
It Started With a Question

  If Startups Fail from a Lack of customers
        not Product Development Failure

             Then why do we have:
•  process to manage product development?

•  no process to manage customer development?
I Started Reading
•  Lead User Research - Von Hippel                  •  OODA Loop - Boyd
•  Crossing the Chasm - Moore                       •  Question-based Selling - Freese
•  Entrepreneurial Mindset - McGrath/MacMillan      •  Solution Selling - Bosworth
•  Innovators Dillema - Christensen                 •  Conceptual/Strategic Selling - Heiman
•  Profitable Value - Lanning                       •  Spin Selling - Rackham
•  Lanchester Strategy - Yano                       •  US Marine Corps Warfighting Manual
•  High Tech Marketing - Davidow                    •  Tipping Point - Gladwell




          Customer          Customer             Customer            Company
          Discovery         Validation           Creation            Building
All We Had Was 30 Years of This


  Concept/     Product        Alpha/Beta   Launch/
 Seed Round     Dev.             Test      1st Ship


              Product Development Model
What’s Wrong With This?

                           Product Development

     Concept/          Product            Alpha/Beta           Launch/
    Seed Round           Dev.                 Test             1st Ship


                 -  Create Marcom       - Hire PR Agency   - Create Demand
Marketing           Materials           - Early Buzz       - Launch Event
                 - Create Positioning                      - “Branding”




                                                                             7
What’s Wrong With This?

                          Product Development

    Concept/          Product               Alpha/Beta                Launch/
   Seed Round           Dev.                    Test                  1st Ship


                -  Create Marcom         - Hire PR Agency         - Create Demand
Marketing          Materials             - Early Buzz             - Launch Event
                - Create Positioning                              - “Branding”



                                       •  Hire Sales VP          •  Build Sales
Sales                                  •  Hire 1st Sales Staff     Organization
What’s Wrong With This?


                            Product Development

      Concept/          Product               Alpha/Beta                Launch/
     Seed Round           Dev.                    Test                  1st Ship


                  -  Create Marcom         - Hire PR Agency        - Create Demand
 Marketing           Materials             - Early Buzz            - Launch Event
                  - Create Positioning                             - “Branding”



                                         •  Hire Sales VP          •  Build Sales
  Sales                                  •  Hire 1st Sales Staff     Organization


 Business
                                             •  Hire First         •  Do deals for FCS
Development
                                                Bus Dev
10 Things I Hate About
          Product Development

1.     Where are the Customers?
2.     The Focus on First Customer Ship
3.     Emphasis on Execution vs. Learning & Discovery
4.     No Customer-centric milestones
5.     Product dev. to measure Sales
6.     Product dev. to measure Marketing
7.     Premature Scaling
8.     Death Spiral
9.     Three Types of Startups
10.    Unrealistic Expectations
Chasing The FCS Date
!    Sales & Marketing costs are front loaded
     "    focused on execution vs. learning & discovery
!    First Customer Ship becomes the goal
!    Execution & hiring predicated on business plan hypothesis
!    Heavy spending hit if product launch is wrong
!    Financial projections, assumes all startups are the same
                                   =
     You don’t know if you’re wrong until you’re out of
                      business/money
An Inexpensive Fix

Focus on Customers and Markets
          from Day One

            How?
Boyd’s OODA “Loop”
         Observe                                    Orient                                Decide                     Act
                               Implicit                                                         Implicit
   Unfolding                  Guidance                 Cultural
                                                                                               Guidance
Circumstances                 & Control               Traditions                               & Control


                                             Genetic
                                             Heritage              Analyses &
                Observations        Feed
                                   Forward
                                                                   Synthesis     Feed       Decision        Feed     Action
                                                                                Forward                    Forward
                                                                                          (Hypothesis)               (Test)
                                                  New
                                                               Previous
                                              Information
                                                              Experience
   Outside                                                                                                               Unfolding
 Information                                                                                                            Interaction
                                                                                                                           With
                 Unfolding
                                                                                                                       Environment
                Interaction                          Feedback
                   With
               Environment                                   Feedback



      Orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by the feedback
      and other phenomena coming into our observing window.


         Competitive advantage comes from quickness over the entire “loop,” not just
         from the O-to-O-to-D-to-A sequence.
Build a Customer Development Process


                 Product Development

  Concept/    Product      Alpha/Beta   Launch/
 Seed Round     Dev.           Test     1st Ship




              Customer Development

          ?         ?             ?         ?
Customer Development is as important
      as Product Development

                        Product Development

      Concept/      Product        Alpha/Beta   Launch/
      Bus. Plan       Dev.             Test     1st Ship




                  Customer Development

     Customer      Customer        Customer     Company
     Discovery     Validation      Creation     Building
Customer Development is as important
      as Product Development

                        Product Development

      Concept/      Product        Alpha/Beta   Launch/
      Bus. Plan       Dev.             Test     1st Ship




                  Customer Development

     Customer      Customer        Customer     Company
     Discovery     Validation      Creation     Building
Customer Development Heuristics

!    There are no facts inside your building, so get
     outside
      "    Founders in front of customers
!    Find a Market for the Product as spec’d
      "    I.e Develop for the Few, not the Many
!    Learning and Discovery versus linear execution
!    Earlyvangelists make your company
!    Market Types Matter
Customer & Product Development
              Synchronization
                 Product Development

  Concept/      Product       Alpha/Beta   Launch/
  Bus. Plan       Dev.            Test     1st Ship




              Customer Development
  Customer     Customer        Customer      Scale
  Discovery    Validation      Creation    Company
Product Development

                Product Development

    Concept/    Product      Alpha/Beta   Launch/
    Bus. Plan     Dev.           Test     1st Ship




But really, how does this work?
Customer Development:
                  Big Ideas

!    Parallel process to Product Development

!    Measurable Checkpoints for the entire company

!    Not tied to FCS, but to customer milestones

!    Iterative to represent reality

!    Executed by a small team including CEO
It Resulted in a Few Hypotheses

•  Startups weren’t small versions of large companies
•  They were about learning/discovery, not execution
•  Entrepreneurs and their VC’s were executing on
   guesses
•  But the facts were outside the building
Which Turned Into A Model

               Product Development

Concept/       Product         Alpha/Beta   Launch/1st
Bus. Plan       Dev.              Test         Ship



                           +
             Customer Development

 Customer     Customer         Customer     Company
 Discovery    Validation       Creation     Building
Eric Ries Extends the Model

•  Took my class at U.C. Berkeley
•  Co-founded IMVU
  -  1st implementation of Customer Development
  -  Paired it with an Agile Development Model
•  Observed that the sum of the two was powerful
Eric Ries: Insight - 1
    Startups assumed development was “known”


 Concept/   Product    Alpha/   Launch/
   Seed      Dev.       Beta      Ship


                                                                Waterfall

                                           !"#$%&"'"()*+

                                                                            Solution: known
                                                           ,"*%-(+


•  I understood the problem                  .'/0"'"()123(+


         was unknown          Problem: known          4"&%56123(+


•  Eric observed the solution                                 71%()"(1(6"+


   was unknown in a startup
Eric Ries: Insight - 2
           Agile matches the Customer Dev speed


Concept/    Product    Alpha/   Launch/
  Seed       Dev.       Beta      Ship




                                          Solution: unknown




    •  Agile was the development
    methodology to use when the
         solution was unknown
Eric Ries: Insight 3
   Customer + Agile + Commodity = Lean

•  Solving for both unknowns is the “Lean Startup”




    Problem: Unknown         Solution: Unknown
                                       Source: Eric Ries
Jon Feiber @ MDV Insight
    Not all Need Customer Development


•  Market Risk vs. Technical Risk?
  -  Web is about customers & markets
  -  Biotech is about science & invention
John Boyd - Insight
                                           The OODA “Loop”


          Observe                                Orient                                Decide                     Act
                              Implicit                                                       Implicit
  Unfolding                  Guidance              Cultural
                                                                                            Guidance
Circumstances                & Control             Traditions                               & Control


                                           Genetic
                                           Heritage             Analyses &
                Observations       Feed
                                 Forward
                                                                 Synthesis     Feed      Decision         Feed    Action
                                                                             Forward                    Forward
                                                                                       (Hypothesis)               (Test)
                                               New
                                                              Previous
                                           Information
                                                             Experience
  Outside                                                                                                             Unfolding
Information                                                                                                          Interaction
                                                                                                                        With
                Unfolding
                                                                                                                    Environment
               Interaction                        Feedback
                  With
              Environment                                 Feedback



       Orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by the feedback and
                                other phenomena coming into our observing window.
Iteration versus Execution

            Iteration                        Execution

Customer            Customer        Customer             Company
Discovery           Validation      Creation             Building




The Search for a Business           The Growth of a Business


                        Product/Market Fit
Iteration versus Execution
         Product/Market Fit
Business Model
Affects Metrics and Exit Criteria

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Customer Development: Key to Startup Success

  • 1.
  • 2. Customer Development in the High Tech Enterprise MBA 295-F/EMBA 295-F Customer and Agile Development Steve Blank sblank@kandsranch.com 2 3/27/10
  • 3. Class 3: Agenda !  Logistics/Questions !  CASE: E-Ink !  Product Development !  Boyd & the OODA Loop !  Customer Development
  • 4. It Started With a Question If Startups Fail from a Lack of customers not Product Development Failure Then why do we have: •  process to manage product development? •  no process to manage customer development?
  • 5. I Started Reading •  Lead User Research - Von Hippel •  OODA Loop - Boyd •  Crossing the Chasm - Moore •  Question-based Selling - Freese •  Entrepreneurial Mindset - McGrath/MacMillan •  Solution Selling - Bosworth •  Innovators Dillema - Christensen •  Conceptual/Strategic Selling - Heiman •  Profitable Value - Lanning •  Spin Selling - Rackham •  Lanchester Strategy - Yano •  US Marine Corps Warfighting Manual •  High Tech Marketing - Davidow •  Tipping Point - Gladwell Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building
  • 6. All We Had Was 30 Years of This Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Seed Round Dev. Test 1st Ship Product Development Model
  • 7. What’s Wrong With This? Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Seed Round Dev. Test 1st Ship -  Create Marcom - Hire PR Agency - Create Demand Marketing Materials - Early Buzz - Launch Event - Create Positioning - “Branding” 7
  • 8. What’s Wrong With This? Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Seed Round Dev. Test 1st Ship -  Create Marcom - Hire PR Agency - Create Demand Marketing Materials - Early Buzz - Launch Event - Create Positioning - “Branding” •  Hire Sales VP •  Build Sales Sales •  Hire 1st Sales Staff Organization
  • 9. What’s Wrong With This? Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Seed Round Dev. Test 1st Ship -  Create Marcom - Hire PR Agency - Create Demand Marketing Materials - Early Buzz - Launch Event - Create Positioning - “Branding” •  Hire Sales VP •  Build Sales Sales •  Hire 1st Sales Staff Organization Business •  Hire First •  Do deals for FCS Development Bus Dev
  • 10. 10 Things I Hate About Product Development 1.  Where are the Customers? 2.  The Focus on First Customer Ship 3.  Emphasis on Execution vs. Learning & Discovery 4.  No Customer-centric milestones 5.  Product dev. to measure Sales 6.  Product dev. to measure Marketing 7.  Premature Scaling 8.  Death Spiral 9.  Three Types of Startups 10.  Unrealistic Expectations
  • 11. Chasing The FCS Date !  Sales & Marketing costs are front loaded "  focused on execution vs. learning & discovery !  First Customer Ship becomes the goal !  Execution & hiring predicated on business plan hypothesis !  Heavy spending hit if product launch is wrong !  Financial projections, assumes all startups are the same = You don’t know if you’re wrong until you’re out of business/money
  • 12. An Inexpensive Fix Focus on Customers and Markets from Day One How?
  • 13. Boyd’s OODA “Loop” Observe Orient Decide Act Implicit Implicit Unfolding Guidance Cultural Guidance Circumstances & Control Traditions & Control Genetic Heritage Analyses & Observations Feed Forward Synthesis Feed Decision Feed Action Forward Forward (Hypothesis) (Test) New Previous Information Experience Outside Unfolding Information Interaction With Unfolding Environment Interaction Feedback With Environment Feedback Orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our observing window. Competitive advantage comes from quickness over the entire “loop,” not just from the O-to-O-to-D-to-A sequence.
  • 14. Build a Customer Development Process Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Seed Round Dev. Test 1st Ship Customer Development ? ? ? ?
  • 15. Customer Development is as important as Product Development Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Bus. Plan Dev. Test 1st Ship Customer Development Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building
  • 16. Customer Development is as important as Product Development Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Bus. Plan Dev. Test 1st Ship Customer Development Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building
  • 17. Customer Development Heuristics !  There are no facts inside your building, so get outside "  Founders in front of customers !  Find a Market for the Product as spec’d "  I.e Develop for the Few, not the Many !  Learning and Discovery versus linear execution !  Earlyvangelists make your company !  Market Types Matter
  • 18. Customer & Product Development Synchronization Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Bus. Plan Dev. Test 1st Ship Customer Development Customer Customer Customer Scale Discovery Validation Creation Company
  • 19. Product Development Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/ Bus. Plan Dev. Test 1st Ship But really, how does this work?
  • 20. Customer Development: Big Ideas !  Parallel process to Product Development !  Measurable Checkpoints for the entire company !  Not tied to FCS, but to customer milestones !  Iterative to represent reality !  Executed by a small team including CEO
  • 21. It Resulted in a Few Hypotheses •  Startups weren’t small versions of large companies •  They were about learning/discovery, not execution •  Entrepreneurs and their VC’s were executing on guesses •  But the facts were outside the building
  • 22. Which Turned Into A Model Product Development Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/1st Bus. Plan Dev. Test Ship + Customer Development Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building
  • 23. Eric Ries Extends the Model •  Took my class at U.C. Berkeley •  Co-founded IMVU -  1st implementation of Customer Development -  Paired it with an Agile Development Model •  Observed that the sum of the two was powerful
  • 24. Eric Ries: Insight - 1 Startups assumed development was “known” Concept/ Product Alpha/ Launch/ Seed Dev. Beta Ship Waterfall !"#$%&"'"()*+ Solution: known ,"*%-(+ •  I understood the problem .'/0"'"()123(+ was unknown Problem: known 4"&%56123(+ •  Eric observed the solution 71%()"(1(6"+ was unknown in a startup
  • 25. Eric Ries: Insight - 2 Agile matches the Customer Dev speed Concept/ Product Alpha/ Launch/ Seed Dev. Beta Ship Solution: unknown •  Agile was the development methodology to use when the solution was unknown
  • 26. Eric Ries: Insight 3 Customer + Agile + Commodity = Lean •  Solving for both unknowns is the “Lean Startup” Problem: Unknown Solution: Unknown Source: Eric Ries
  • 27. Jon Feiber @ MDV Insight Not all Need Customer Development •  Market Risk vs. Technical Risk? -  Web is about customers & markets -  Biotech is about science & invention
  • 28. John Boyd - Insight The OODA “Loop” Observe Orient Decide Act Implicit Implicit Unfolding Guidance Cultural Guidance Circumstances & Control Traditions & Control Genetic Heritage Analyses & Observations Feed Forward Synthesis Feed Decision Feed Action Forward Forward (Hypothesis) (Test) New Previous Information Experience Outside Unfolding Information Interaction With Unfolding Environment Interaction Feedback With Environment Feedback Orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our observing window.
  • 29. Iteration versus Execution Iteration Execution Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building The Search for a Business The Growth of a Business Product/Market Fit
  • 30. Iteration versus Execution Product/Market Fit
  • 31. Business Model Affects Metrics and Exit Criteria