2. India’s Capacity Addition Targets
Target (in MW)
Plan Year
Thermal Hydro Nuclear Total
11th 2007 - 2012 50,757 8,237 3,380 62,374
12th 2012 - 2017 67,686 9,204 2,800 79,690
13th 2017 - 2022 49,200 12,000 18,000 79,200
* 11th Plan target revised after Mid Term Appraisal (MTA)

3. “Coal shall remain India’s most
important energy source till
2031-32 and possibly beyond”
– Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy, Aug’06,
Planning Commission, Govt. of India

4. • As per the Integrated Energy Policy (IEP)
Report, Indian Coal Requirement in 2031 - 32
is projected to be between 1580 – 2555 Million
Tons.
• But CIL has set a target of domestic coal
production to 839 Million Tons (maximum) by
2025.
• CIL target is therefore way below the annual
coal requirement.

5. India’s Coal Demand Forecast by Forbes
in million tons

6. • Indigenous coal resources enable economic
development and can be transformed to guard
against import dependence and price shocks.
• India is the 5th largest proven coal reserve in the
world and contributes to around 6% of global coal
production.
• But, there still exists a supply – demand gap.
• Supply demand Gap has increased at a CAGR of
38.47% from 2008 – 09 to 2011 – 12.

7. Coal Supply Demand Gap
Fin Gap Increase in Gap
Year (Million Tonnes) (wrt ’08-09)
2008 – 09 60.83 –
2009 – 10 90.50 48.77 %
2010 – 11 132.00 117.00 %
2011 – 12 161.50 165.50 %

8. The Bottlenecks causing
Coal Supply – Demand Gap
Stringent environmental laws causing considerable delay in obtaining
forestry clearances.
Tenancy Land Acquisition and associated Resettlement & Rehabilitation
(RR) issues.
Growing Naxalism & prominence of coal mafia.
Skewed concentration of Coal Deposits.
Lack of proper transportation infrastructure & considerable slow progress in
development of the same.
Monopolistic pattern of the Indian Coal Sector (CIL having 94% market
share)
Outdated mining technologies & poor maintenance of associated equipment
Poor geophysical mapping (~ 3%) & geochemical mapping (~ 4%) of
India’s hard rock area. Institution with a broader scope then GSI required.

9. • Under New Coal Distribution Policy (NCDP)
framework, CIL would only commit up to 50%
of TPPs Annual Coal Quantity (ACQ) from
domestic sources only.
• Therefore the TPPs are left with no other
option but to realize the remaining coal
requirement through imports.
• Importing thermal coal seems imperative if a
+8% of GDP growth is to be sustained.

10. Global Coal Trade Flows
(as on 2004)
Source: International Energy Agency

11. World Main Fossil Fuel Reserves (Gigatons of oil equivalent)
Source: World Coal Association

12. USA: World’s largest coal reserve
• US leads the pack with 237.3 billion tons, i.e. 22.6% of Global
proven coal reserve.
• The Powder River Basin of Montana and Wyoming is the single
largest source of coal in the US.
• Montana has 74.81 billion tons of estimated recoverable
reserves, the most in the US, and Wyoming has 39.19 billion
tons of estimated recoverable reserves, second highest reserves
in the U.S
• Peabody Energy & Arch Coal are eyeing the Chinese & Indian
markets.
• Peabody has stated that global coal shipments to the Asia-Pacific
region could reach 140 million metric tons per year, by 2015
• India can therefore have a sizeable chunk of its annual coal
requirement from the US

13. Kazakhstan: Central Asia’s largest coal reserve
• Survey of Energy Resources by World Energy
Council in 2010 revealed Kazakhstan to have 33.6
billion tons of recoverable coal reserves, 3rd in
Asia after China & India.
• By 2014 Kazakhstan plans to boost its annual coal
exports to 32 Million tons from present 20 – 22
million tons.
• Evident from the geographical proximity, India
can surely exercise the option of importing coal
from Kazakhstan

15. Facts & Figures…
1. The electricity supply-demand gap in terms of
both capacity (MW) and energy (MWh) has
been steadily growing in India.
2. Gap as on December 2011 was 13.9%
3. Transmission and distribution losses stood at
35 – 45% .

16. Peak Demand Projections
Peak Demand Estimate
Plan Year
(in MW)
12th 2012 - 2017 218,000
13th 2017 - 2022 300,000
Source: Economic Times, Feb 10, 2012

17. With increase in demand, in
the present system the
following are augmented:
1) Distribution Infrastructure
2) Transmission
Infrastructure
3) Generation Capacity
Increased T&D Infrastructure
causes increased T&D losses.
Generation capacity needs to
be increased to supply the
increased demand as well as
the increased T&D losses.

18. Increased generation capacity implies faster
consumption of energy resources. This shall
lead to faster depletion of resources, thereby
posing a serious threat to the national energy
security. To finance increase in T&D &
Generation infrastructure, electricity prices
will escalate.
This will definitely burn holes in the common
man’s pocket.
But, electricity demand is bound to increase in
a growing economy.
So what is the solution?

19. CEA, in The National Electricity Plan (Vol I)
published in January 2012, cites Demand Side
Management as a solution.
DSM aims to induce lower consumption of electric
energy by reduction in the consumption by
customers in response to an increase in the price of
electric energy or to incentive payments. In other
words, it shall create a market for Negawatts.
DSM program can reduce energy costs for utilities
and in the long term, it can limit the requirement for
further generation capacity augmentation and
strengthening of transmission and distribution
system

20. DSM framework in India
• Demand Response: Create additional capacity
during peak hours by voluntary load curtailment
by consumers, load shifting or by energy
efficiency measures.
• Load Management Programs: real time pricing
based on supply & demand, time-of-use rate
structure
• Smart meters: Enabling communication between
customer & DISCOMs informing about rates,
demand & supply; enabling accurate real time
measurements; load connect-disconnect facility

21. DSM framework as cited by
CEA calls for Smart Grid
technology already in vogue,
globally.

22. Smart Grid Characteristic Demand Dispatch Synergy
Demand Dispatch will provide incremental motivation for
Enable active participation
consumer participation by creating opportunities to reduce
1) by the consumers
cost, generate revenues & reduce environmental impacts
Accommodate all
Provides a mechanism for increased penetration of distributed
generation & storage
2) & renewable resources on the grid
options
Enable new products, New Demand Dispatch markets attracts consumers &
3)
services & markets innovations
Provide quality power for Demand Dispatch applications can include control of power
4)
digital economy quality and voltage regulation at the feeder level
Enables complete system optimization by allowing grid
Optimize asset utilization
5) operators to coordinate supply & demand to meet reliability,
and operate efficiently
efficiency, economic & environmental goals
Anticipate & respond to Demand dispatch monitoring & control of demand resources
6) system disturbance (Self enhances the self healing nature of the smart grid. This will
Heal) virtually eliminate chances of cascading outages
Demand dispatch monitoring & control of demand resources
Operate resiliently against
7) allows faster restoration from outages. Increased penetration
attack & natural disaster
of distributed resources reduces grid vulnerability.

23. Source: Smart from Start, PwC

24. Case Study 1: Singapore
• In November 2009, the Energy Market Authority (EMA) of Singapore
launched a pilot smart grid test program, the Intelligent Energy System
(IES), to develop and test new smart grid technologies and solutions
• IES will permit both providers and consumers the opportunity to make
more informed decisions about electricity use.
• IES would enable outage management systems, integration of a growing
number of small and variable sources of power into the grid in a ‘plug-
and-play’ manner, time-of-use pricing, load shifting in line with time
related tariffs.
• The trial achieved an average reduction of overall electricity
consumption of 2.4% and a 3.9% reduction in peak usage.
• The trial revealed that not only are the customers benefitted but also
peak demand was lowered easing the pressure on generation plants –
making for savings in terms of energy infrastructure spend for Singapore.

25. Case Study 2: Norway
• The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
(NVE), adopted on 24 June 2011 new rules that targets to equip
all customers with smart meters by 1 January 2017.
• Introducing smart metering will allow electricity consumers to
get more precise consumption data, a more accurate billing and
to better consumption management.
• Electricity suppliers (or DISCOMs) will be able to reinforce
their relationship with customers through more interaction and
additionally provide new services
• The Central Maine Power Company has already completed
installation of smart meters in its area creating thousands of jobs
for the Maine economy, while ensuring long-term grid
reliability and efficient grid management.

26. Case Study 3: Sweden
• In 2003 Sweden became the first EU country to mandate smart
metering (indirectly) by legislating new national metering
regulations
• The smart metering scheme has enabled hourly metering
• It has enabled customers to have the information about the time-
of-use tariffs a day ahead via emails/ sms
• The load was reduced by an average of no less than 50% at
times of high electricity prices
• The peak load was reduced with 2% due to the new power tariff
which has a fixed part and a power part based on the average
consumption for the three maximum consumption hours per
month, for work days 07:00-19:00

28. Source: Energy Statistics 2012, National Statistical Organisation, Govt of India

29. Wind Power
• The Indian wind energy sector has an installed capacity of
14158.00 MW (as on March 31, 2011). In terms of wind power
installed capacity, India is ranked 5th in the World. Today India is
a major player in the global wind energy market.
• The potential is far from exhausted. Indian Wind Energy
Association has estimated that with the current level of
technology, the ‘on-shore’ potential for utilization of wind energy
for electricity generation is of the order of 65,000 MW. The
unexploited resource availability has the potential to sustain the
growth of wind energy sector in India in the years to come.
• The wind energy generation is expected to increase at an average
growth rate of 9% per annum and is expected to reach 7 billion
units during FY2011-12

30. Source: MNRE, Govt of India

31. Wind Power: Gross Potential Capacity
in MW

32. Ranking on Wind Index by Ernst & Young
as on May 2012

33. SOLAR POWER
• India has nearly 300 sunny days in most regions, and average
incident solar radiation ranges between 4 to 7 kWh/day/sq.meter
— much higher than most other countries.
• The largest state in India, Rajasthan, is roughly the same size as
Germany, yet it receives twice the intensity of solar radiation for
more than twice the number of days as Germany, which is the
world’s current solar power leader.
• In 2010, India’s solar power capacity was less than 20 MW and the
2020 target was larger than the 19,000 MW of existing solar power
worldwide. Now global solar capacity has doubled to 40,000 MW
and continues to be one of the world’s fastest growing power
technologies. India could aim even higher, given the potential and
growing demand for clean energy.

34. • Indian industries have responded positively to the
Mission.
• There were over 400 projects applications in the first
government auction, though only 37 projects were
selected.
• India’s largest industrial conglomerates (Reliance,
Tata & Birla) are increasing solar investments, new
players have emerged, and government entities
(ONGC, NTPC, and Bharat Heavy Electricals
Limited) are implementing large-scale projects
• The key to scaling up solar power lies in its ability to
be cost competitive. KPMG-India predicts that with
policy support and investment, solar energy could
achieve grid-parity with fossil fuels by 2019-20

35. National Solar Mission 2010 - 2022
Off-Grid Solar Hot Solar lantern /
Solar Grid Connected
solar water lighting
Technology / rooftop
applications collectors systems
PHASE I 1000 – 2000 7 million
(2010 - 2013)
200 MW N/A
MW sq. miles
PHASE II 4000 – 10,000 15 million
(2013 - 2017)
1000 MW N/A
MW sq. miles
PHASE III 20 million 20 million
(2017 - 2022)
20,000 MW 2000 MW
sq. miles systems

36. India’s solar sector is expected to receive a boost as
investors and developers turn their attention away from a
troubled European market in search of high-growth
developing markets. India’s strong project pipeline and
untapped resource potential means it is likely to benefit from
this shift in global solar investment.
Indeed, there are already signs that this is starting to
happen. Of the US $10.3b (€7.7b) in clean energy
investment in 2011, the largest increase came from the
US$4.2b (€3.1b) funding across the solar industry,
representing a sevenfold increase on 2010.
Areva, in April 2012, announced to have won Reliance
Power’s 250 MW Solar CSP plant
Source: Renewable energy country attractiveness indices, Ernst & Young, May 2012
Green power 2012, KPMG …………………..

37. Ranking on Solar Index by Ernst & Young
as on May 2012

39. HYDRO POWER

40. • Only 23% of India’s hydro power potential has
been harnessed so far.
• Additional hydropower capacity is desirable in
India’s generation mix, as it provides the system
operator with technically vital flexibility to meet
the changes in demand. The high density of
household demand in India means that the
system can experience a peaking load of
anything between 20,000 to 30,000 MW. This
sudden spurt in demand can be best met by
hydropower plants which have the ability to start
up and shut down quickly

41. Limitations of Hydro Projects
• Away from load centres; evacuation of power is big problem
• Environmental/ Ecological & RR problems due to submergence/
construction activities
• Difficulty in Investigations/ Implementation due to remoteness
of the area
• Long Gestation periods
• Lack of availability of long term finance
• Geological surprises resulting in time and cost over-runs
• Hydro projects suffer from production risks since the project is
planned based on the historical data which may not occur in
future

42. State wise distribution of 4711 completed & 390 under
construction dams in India
Source:
International
Conference on
Advances in
Civil
Engineering,
Oct 2011

43. Ocean Energy
• Tidal Range Energy – converting energy potential of Tidal variations
into power
• Floating Offshore wind turbines – harnessing strong & steady wind
power, placed mid-sea.
• Tidal Energy – converting kinetic energy of ocean & tidal currents
into power.
• Wave Energy – capable of operating in both deep & shallow water
zones, holds significant potential 29,500 TWh/yr.
• Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) – operates on a min.
20degC temperature difference between warm surface waters &
cooler deep waters. Capable of producing renewable energy on a
continuous basis.
• Osmotic Energy – Uses energy available in differences between salt
concentrations of sea water & fresh water, installation in fjords &
estuaries

45. Biomass Energy
• Biomass energy is the utilization of organic
matter present and can be utilized for various
applications:
– Biomass can be used to produce heat and electricity, or
used in combined heat and power (CHP) plants.
– Biomass can also be used in combination with fossil
fuels (co-firing) to improve efficiency and reduce the
build up of combustion residues.
– Biomass can also replace petroleum as a source
for transportation fuels

46. Biomass Energy in India
• India produces about 450-500 million tonnes of biomass per year. Biomass provides
32% of all the primary energy use in the country at present.
• The potential in the short term for power from biomass in India varies from about
18,000 MW, when the scope of biomass is as traditionally defined, to a high of about
50,000 MW if one were to expand the scope of definition of biomass.
• The current share of biofuels in total fuel consumption is extremely low and is
confined mainly to 5% blending of ethanol in gasoline, which the government has
made mandatory in 10 states.
• Currently, biodiesel is not sold on the Indian fuel market, but the government plans
to meet 20% of the country’s diesel requirements by 2020 using biodiesel.
• Plants like Jatropha curcas, Neem, Mahua and other wild plants are identified as the
potential sources for biodiesel production in India.
• There are about 63 million ha waste land in the country, out of which about 40
million ha area can be developed by undertaking plantations of Jatropha. India uses
several incentive schemes to induce villagers to rehabilitate waste lands through the
cultivation of Jatropha.
• The Indian government is targeting a Jatropha plantation area of 11.2 million ha by
2012.

48. Solar Thermal Energy
Various commercial power plant development
projects with unit outputs of 50 to 310 MWe and
large solar fields of parabolic trough collectors
are currently promoted or are in a progressive
planning stage by European and U.S. project
developers with grants of the World Bank/GEF
or other co-funds world – wide.

49. • Greece: 50 MWe solar thermal power plant THESEUS on the
Crete island; promoted by German and Greece companies; solar
field of approximately 300,000 m2;, 112 GWh of pure solar
electricity per year
• Spain: Various 50 MWe plants group in southern Spain;
promoted by international industrial group; based on the new
Royal Decree on the support of renewable electricity generation
• Egypt: 135 MWe natural-gas-fired ISCCS plant in Kuraymat at
the Nile river; 30 MWe equivalent solar capacity; promoted by
industrial groups; with allocated 40 to 50 million US$ GEF
grant.
• Morocco: 150 MWe natural-gas-fired ISCCS plant project; 30 to
50 MWe equivalent solar capacity; promoted by industrial
groups; with allocated 40 to 50 million US$ GEF grant.

50. • India: 140 MWe naphtha-fired ISCCS plant in
Mathania/Rajasthan; 35 MWe equivalent solar capacity;
promoted by industrial groups; with allocated 49 million
USDollar GEF grant and 100 million US-Dollar loan of
the German KfW-bank
• Iran: Feasibility study for the implementation of a 100
MW natural gas fired combined cycle plant with a 200
000 – 400 000m² parabolic trough field in the desert of
Yazd contracted with its own national funds.
• Mexico: 310 MWe natural-gas-fired ISCCS plant in the
Northern Mexican desert; 40 MWe equivalent solar
capacity; promoted by industrial groups; with allocated 40
to 50 million US-Dollar GEF grant.

52. Future after Fukushima

53. Nuclear Energy :
Future after Fukushima
• In view of the looming climate crisis and dwindling fossil fuels
reserves – peak oil just to mention one – nuclear energy was
propagated in the past decade as a CO2-free, safe and secure,
cheap solution to global energy problems.
• But post-Fukushima, international energy policy is at a
crossroads. There have been more or less clear signs of
rethinking on the parts of governments in a number of
countries, including Germany, Switzerland, China and now
even Japan, indicating that they are considering picking up the
pace in a fundamental change in energy policy.
• Japan and Germany, the 3rd & the 4th largest economies in the
world have decided to phase out nuclear energy and base future
growth more on renewable energies.

54. Nuclear Energy :
Safety Issues
• A commercial-type power reactor simply cannot, under any circumstances,
explode like a nuclear bomb - the fuel is not enriched beyond about 5%
• Every country which operates nuclear power plants has a nuclear safety
inspectorate and all of these work closely with the IAEA, responsible for
global nuclear safety.
• Apart from Chernobyl, no nuclear workers or members of the public have ever
died as a result of exposure to radiation due to a commercial nuclear reactor
incident. Most of the serious radiological injuries and deaths that occur each
year (2-4 deaths and many more exposures above regulatory limits) are the
result of large uncontrolled radiation sources, such as abandoned medical or
industrial equipment
• No industrial activity can be represented as entirely risk-free. Incidents and
accidents may happen, and as in other industries, & will lead to progressive
improvement in safety.
• But there is a concern about nuclear waste disposal.

55. Nuclear Energy :
Climate Change Debate
• Contrary to popular belief, CO2 emissions of nuclear energy in
connection with its production – depending on where the raw material
uranium is mined and enriched – amounts to between 7 and 126
gCO2equ/kWh (GEMIS 4.7), one-third as much GHGs as large modern
gas power plants.
• So, nuclear energy is not free of CO2 emissions, as often they are
touted.
• Krypton 85 is produced in nuclear power plants and is released on a
massive scale in reprocessing.
• A product of nuclear fission, Krypton 85 ionizes the air more than any
other radioactive substance
• Though Krypton 85 levels in the atmosphere have reached a record
high, surprisingly it has not received any attention in international
climate-protection negotiations till date.

56. Country Perspective: Brazil
Brazil’s power demand is mostly
catered by Hydro-electricity.
Angra 1 (657 MW) & Angra 2 (1350
MW) are the operating 2 Nuclear Wind
Nuclear
power plants. Angra 3 is under 1.80%
Power
Biomass 0.70%
construction is expected to begin
6.60%
operating from 2015.
According to the Brazilian National
Energy Plan, installed nuclear capacity
would be 33GW by 2030, accounting Thermal
18.60%
for 4.9 % of total installed capacity. To
prevent melting of fuel rods due to
Hydro
failure of reactor cooling pumps, as
72.30%
was the case for Fukushima, small
hydroelectric plants & dedicated power
transmission lines are planned.

57. Country Perspective: Brazil
continued
The experience gathered from the design, construction, and operation of
Angra 1, 2, and 3, as well as having 5th largest uranium reserve in the world
(309,000 tons), has made Brazil showcase Nuclear energy as a highly
competitive energy alternative to a guaranteed energy self – sufficiency.
Brazil has the potential of wind energy to the tune of 143 GW but only 794
MW has been installed. The potential for co-generation using sugarcane
bagasse is estimated at around 8 GW, in addition to the possibility for using
biogas for electrical energy generation. Furthermore, the potential for using
solar energy, both thermal and photovoltaic, is extraordinary. T&D losses
are 15% which can be reduced to 10%, adding 46,000 GWh every year to
the Brazilian Grid. Extensive R&M of hydroelectric plants that have been
operating for more than 20 years can contribute to 8000 MW increased
generation.
Thus, nuclear energy would become absolutely unnecessary as an
alternative for satisfying Brazil’s energy demands.

58. Country Perspective: Germany
On 14th March 2011, 3 days after Fukushima disaster, a three-month
moratorium was announced as an immediate measure, during which
the seven oldest German nuclear power plants and the Krümmel
reactor in Schleswig-Holstein, which was prone to malfunction, were
to be taken off the grid. This was exactly opposite to what was decided
by the Merkel govt. in September 2010, just 6 months prior to
Fukushima.
Within a few days, 8,400 MW of nuclear capacity – approx. 41% of
the total German nuclear power capacity (20,500 MW) – was no
longer available. Complete phase out of installed nuclear capacity is
planned to be within 2022.
Though the decision is understood to be more political, it will
inevitably entail a huge increase in the use of renewable energies and
rapid improvements in energy efficiency.

59. Country Perspective: India
Nuclear power was being given priority by the Indian Govt, as evident
from the ambitious 18 GW target set for 13th Plan. India has the world's
highest thorium reserves of 360,000 tons. Thorium can be used with
recycled uranium to fuel reactors. Thus, the argument for nuclear power
came from an energy security angle as well as a climate change angle.
But future of the 9.9GW Jaitapur Nuclear Power Project, the US$9.3bn
project, seems bleak as the left and the right wings of civil society have
joined to create a formidable opposition, post Fukushima. NPCIL has not
been able to provide concrete evidence to support the nuclear program
envisaged. The response of the Indian media is such that it cannot be
categorized as being pro- or anti- nuclear, and therefore cannot help to
build a concrete opinion.
But again the growing economy as India is, energy security is required to
fuel the economic growth. The lone option therefore remains as of now is
to look for alternative energy resources, which India has plenty.