2. Markets In Health Care
The IEhM has worked on 3 different
types of health markets
Seasonal Influenza
Avian Influenza
Syphilis
I will discuss what we have learned
from these markets
3. Markets In Health Care
Why are Prediction Markets Important
in Health Care?
4. Markets In Health Care
Why are Prediction Markets Important
in Health Care?
Cost savings with greater forecast accuracy
o
o Influenza causes:
36,000 deaths annually in the U. S.
120,000 hospital admissions
Medical treatment can be adjusted if an
outbreak of flu is anticipated
o Prophylaxis of nursing homes
o A vaccine is available as are several medications
5. Markets In Health Care
Vaccine effectiveness depends on
timing as well as predictions about
which strains to put in the vaccine. It
takes about 2 weeks for the vaccine
to become effective.
Antiviral medicines such as
Oseltamvir (Tamiflu) require 48 hour
advance treatment
8. Markets In Health Care
The prediction problem with influenza
IOW A 20 07-2 008 2006- 2007 2005-2006 2 004- 2005 2003- 2004 20 02-2 003 200 1-20 02 200 0-20 01 1999- 2000
WEEK CO LOR COLOR COLO R COLOR COLOR CO LOR CO LO R CO LO R COLOR
Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
40
Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y B
41
Y G Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
42
43 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
44 Y G Y Y Y Y Y Y G
45 Y G Y Y Y Y Y Y G
46 G G Y Y Y Y G Y B
G G Y Y G Y G Y G
47
G G Y Y B Y G G G
48
G G G G R Y Y G G
49
50 G B G G R Y G G G
51 G B G P R Y G G R
52 G B G B R Y G G R
1 P B B B R Y G G R
2 P B B B R G G B R
B R B B B G Y B R
3
B R B R B G G R R
4
5 R R B R P B B B G
6 R R B R P R B B G
7 R R B R G R G B G
8 R R R R G R B R Y
9 R R R B Y R B G Y
R B R B Y B B G Y
10
R B R P Y G G Y Y
11
12 R P B G Y G G G Y
13 R P B G Y G G Y Y
14 B G P G Y G G Y Y
15 G G G G Y Y G Y Y
16 G G G G Y G G Y Y
Y G G Y Y G G Y Y
17
Y Y Y Y Y Y G Y Y
18
9. Markets In Health Care
The epi Curve for Iowa
The Epi -C urve
6
5
4
2007__Act ual
3
7-Year His tor i cal Aver a ge
2
1
0
Fl u Week
10. Markets In Health Care
The CDC provides a state-by-state
description of influenza activity but it
is two weeks out of date before it
becomes available.
11. Markets In Health Care
We have run markets in Iowa, North
Carolina, and Nebraska
Markets by Year and State.
Year State Number of Markets
2007-2008
Iowa 31
Nebraska 31
North Carolina 31
2006-2007
Iowa 29
North Carolina 27
2005-2006
Iowa 29
2004-2005
Iowa 14
Total 192
12. Markets In Health Care
Who participates?
Trader Characteristics in Iowa-2006-2007
Occupation Freq. Percent Cumulative %.
-- 1 1.12 1.12
Administrator 3 3.37 4.49
Microbiologist 14 15.73 20.22
Nurse 15 16.85 37.08
Other 21 23.60 60.67
Pharmacist 8 8.99 69.66
Physician 20 22.47 92.13
epidemiologist 7 7.87 100.00
Total 89 100.00
13. Markets In Health Care
What did we learn?
Trader heterogeneity can be a curse
Software and training materials have to be
adapted to the knowledge and inclinations of
the audience. This is hard to do when the
audience differs in background.
It is essential to do if members have different
amounts and types of information. E.g.
microbiologists vs. school nurses.
PM’s work well, even with heterogeneous
traders
16. Forecast Success
% Δ in No. Correct
State 5 weeks 3 weeks 1 week
IA 106% 146% 136%
NC 78% 125% 150%
17. Avian Flu
We partnered with PROMED to
recruit traders from around the world.
There are about 20,000 members of the
International Society for Infectious
Disease, located in 155 countries.
Promed-mail is their major way to
communicate daily.
19. Avian Flu
Contracts typically were about how
many cases of Avian H5N1 would
occur in a specific region in a specific
time period (6 months).
Contracts were also traded on
whether there would be human to
human transmission of Avian Flu in a
specific time period.
20. Q.: Will there be human to human
transmission of H5N1 in the EU by
12/31/2008
21. Q: Will the World-wide # of deaths
from Avian Flu exceed xxx
22. Seasonal and Avian Flu
Finding the right audience for a PM
can make the job easier.
Emphasis on graphical display helps a
lot with medical types.
Future projects: Virus strain prediction,
Vaccine Effectiveness
Animal infections
28. Syphilis Markets
No results so far –markets go
operational in May. But lots of
enthusiasm at the CDC.
Check it out at
http://iehm.uiowa.edu/iehm/index.html
