A broad look at energy in India by Soumya Dutta at Sambhaavnaa Institute www.sambhaavnaa.org

1. ENERGY & PEOPLE IN INDIA & WORLD A CLIMATE-CRISIS PERSPECTIVE SOUMYA DUTTA – BJVJ / DP/ SADED ENERGY GLUTTONS – EATS EARTH KNOW WHO THEY ARE ? AFRICA – THE CONTINENT WITH HUGE ENERGY RESOURCES & THE MOST ENERGY-DEPRIVED PEOPLE (barring north) IN THE WORLD .

4. HOW MUCH DO WE GET FROM WHAT INDIA WORLD SOUMYA DUTTA TOTAL COMML ENRGY ITS FOSSIL-CARBON THAT DOMINATES >90% fossil-carbon ~85% fossil-carbon

5. CONSEQUENCES OF OUR ENERGY CHOICE AS WE ALL KNOW, THIS IS CAUSING WORLD-WIDE DEVASTATIONS SOUMYA DUTTA GLOBAL C-ENERGY USE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 BUILD-UP

6. ITS NOT JUST CO2 OR WARMING MANY OF EARTH’S VITAL SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING NOAA SOUMYA DUTTA EXCESS CO2 IN ATMSPHR &THE OCEANS IS CAUSING ANOMALIES FROM LONG TERM AVRG

7. WHY FOSSIL-CARBONS CANNOT INDEFINITELY REMAIN OUR PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES TODAY, THEY ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCE (~80%) SCIENCE SHOWS THE ‘SAFE ATMOSPHERIC LIMIT’ OF CO2 IS <350 ppmv, WHAT IF WE CONTINUE TO BURN FOSSIL-CARBONS? REACH >800 ppmv ? WHAT HAPPENS TO LIFE ? WHOLE ATMOSPHERE CONTAINS ‘ONLY’ ~780 GT SOUMYA DUTTA

8. EVEN AN OPTIMISTIC CARBON BUDGET DO NOT ALLOW PRESENT C-ENERGY PATH GLOBAL EMISSION IN Mt Carbon BLACK LINE – TOTAL EMISSION SOUMYA DUTTA THE FACT THAT ATM. CO2 IS ~390 ppmv NOW, WHILE NEW SCIENCE SETS ‘SAFE-LIMIT’ AT ~350 , MEANS WE HAVE -VE C-BUDGET NOW

9. YET, COAL – HIGHEST C/CAL FOSSIL-FUEL IS GROWING FASTER THAN – GAS, THE LOWEST C/CAL FOSSIL FUEL WORLDs ‘DIRTY’ COAL 1998-2008 PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION WORLD NATRL GAS CONSUMPTION SOUMYA DUTTA AND RENEWABLES ARE STILL A MINISCULE PERCENTAGE

10. BUT IF WE LOOK - EVEN THE ‘CLEANEST’ FOSSIL-FUEL IS STILL VERY DIRTY – IN EXTRACTION & PROCESS SOUMYA DUTTA THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER POLLUTION, FRACTURING ETC

11. WHAT ABOUT NUCLEAR (FISSION) ENERGY ? EXPENSIVE, LONG-GESTATION, HUGE RISKS ! ONLY A HANDFULL OF COUNTRIES GET SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF ELECTRICITY FROM NUCLER-FISSION, AND EVEN THESE – ALONG WITH OTHERS ALREADY LOW – WILL COME DOWN AS A LARGE NO OF THE RUNNING REACTORS (OUT OF 430 odd) APPROACHES END-OF-LIFE. ONLY IN CHINA, INDIA ETC, LARGE NO OF REACTORS ARE PLANNED TO BE BUILT, BUT ….. SOUMYA DUTTA NUCLEAR ENERGY ALSO HAS HIGH EMBEDDED & FUEL-CYCLE -ENERGY CONSUMPTIONS, LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL GHG EMISSIONS ~18 COUNTRIES GET >20% OF THEIR ELECTR NEARLY 60% OF REACTORS ARE >25 Yrs AGE

12. WHAT ABOUT THE HIGH RISKS TO PEOPLE? EXISTING NUCLEAR PLANT SITES WITH ONLY ~4200 MW INSTALLED, WE HAVE PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR WASTE – UNTREATABL E WITH ANY KNOWN TECHNOLOGY. WHAT IF THAT BECOMES 40,000-60,000 MW AS PROJECTED? THE ‘NEW SITES’ WITH EXISTING ONES, WILL MAKE ALL HIGH-POPULATION DENSITY AREAS – HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ROUTINE AND ACCIDENTAL RADIATION AND ACCIDENTS. SOUMYA DUTTA

13. WHAT DRIVES ENERGY CONSUMPTION ‘ ECONOMIC GROWTH’ – ENERGY RELATION COUNTRY-WISE ENERGY-vs-GDP CHANGE IN GDP AND EMISSIONS 1992-2006 SOUMYA DUTTA NOT ONE COUNTRY TO ACHIEVE HIGH ‘GROWTH’ W/O HIGH ENERGY CONSUMPTION / EMISSION.

14. NOT ONLY ECONOMIC GROWTH, FOSSIL-FUELS ALLOWED WORLD POPULATION TO EAT & GROW SOUMYA DUTTA BUT HIGH-INPUT AGRICULTURE, ALONG WITH POWER +INDUSTRY + TRANSPORT… HAS CREATED THE CLIMATE CRISIS & WE ARE APPROACHING RESOURCE PEAKS.

15. BUT ALL FOSSIL FUEL SOURCES TAPER OF AFTER CERTAIN WITHDRAWAL US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION UK NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION BOTH ARE IN ‘MATURE STATE’ OF EXPLOITATION THE ‘PEAK’ PHENOMENON SOUMYA DUTTA

16. PEAK ENERGY FROM – OIL, GAS, COAL, URANIUM IN A LIMITED EARTH – ALL ‘RESOURCES’ ARE LIMITED SOUMYA DUTTA PEAK-OIL, PEAK-GAS, PEAK-COAL – ALL WILL COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY  PEAK-WATER (AND PEAK-FOOD ?) ALSO .

17. WHY DO WE NEED SO MUCH ENERGY ? INDIAN GOVT. PROPOSES NEARLY 4-FOLD INCREASE IN POWER CAPACITY FROM 2005 TO 2030 !! IT’S INCREASED TO 5-FOLD NOW !!! TO ORGANISE HUGELY ENERGY-INTENSIVE WORLD- CUP OR CW GAMES ? TO LIGHT-UP OUR NIGHTS LIKE DAYS ? OR TO TRANSPORT ‘MOUNTAINS’ OF GOODS ACROSS VAST OCEANS ? OR …… SOUMYA DUTTA < HOUSTON FROM SPACE AT NIGHT

19. NOT ONLY RESOURCE LIMITS ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGES ARE GETTING BEYOND LIMITS DAMAGES BY DIFF SECTORS – ON DIFF ‘SYSTEMS’ NOTICE THE HUGE DAMAGES ON WATER RESRS. COUNTRIES RANKED BY ENVMNTL DAMAGES SOUMYA DUTTA

20. THERMAL POWER-PLANTS ALSO CONSUME AND POLLUTE HUGE AMOUNTS OF WATER ABOUT 87% OF ALL WATER CONSUMPTION FROM MAJOR INDUSTRIES IS CONSUMED BY Thermal Power Plants (CSE). SOUMYA DUTTA Of wastes and wants: Water use in India Industrial Sector Annual wastewater water discharge (million cubic meters) (%) Annual consumption (million cubic meters) Proportion of water consumed in industry Thermal power plants 27000.9 35157.4 87.87 Engineering 1551.3 2019.9 5.05 Pulp and paper 695.7 905.8 2.26 Textiles 637.3 829.8 2.07 Steel 396.8 516.6 1.29 Sugar 149.7 194.9 0.49 Fertiliser 56.4 73.5 0.18 Others 241.3 314.2 0.78 Total 30729.2 40012.0 100.0 Note: For methodology see www.downtoearth.org.in Source: Estimated by CSE based on the wastewater discharged data published by CPCB in &quot;Water quality in India (Status and trends) 1990 - 2001&quot;.

21. COUNTRIES IN ASIA & AFRICA FACE WATER-STRESS DUE TO POWER/ENERGY PLANTS, INDUSTRIES, MINING WHILE FOOD DEMAND IN THESE NATIONS INCREASES FAST FOOD AS ENERGY IS THE MOST BASIC NEED – MUST GET PRECEDENCE OVER ALL OTHER FORMS OF ENERGY USE. BUT WATER DEPLETION & CONTAMINATION IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE FOOD-SECURITY (CONNECTED WITH WATER-SECURITY) OF THE POOR. SO, WE WILL HAVE TO CUT OUR LUXURY ENERGY CONSUMPTION. SOUMYA DUTTA WORLD FOOD DEMAND 1500-2050

24. VIABLE ALTERNATIVES FOR THE WORLD ? WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TERA-WATTS, 1965-2005 ABAILABILTY OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES – IN TERA-WATTS SOUMYA DUTTA

25. BUT EVEN WITH ‘ECO-FRIENDLY’ RENEWABLES EARTH HAS LIMITS TO GROWTH OF ENERGY-USE ANY ENERGY EXTRACTION-CONVERSION PROCESS & SYSTEM NEEDS DIFFERENT MATERIALS, AND EVERY MATERIAL ON EARTH IS LIMITED BY ITS FINITE ‘RESERVES’. EVERY EXTRACTION-CONVERSION-CONSUMPTION – RESULTS IN POLLUTION, AND PUT ADDL. PRESSURE ON EARTH’S SYSTEMS  PUSHING ‘PLANETARY BOUNDARIES’. WE HAVE ALREADY CROSSED SOME, AND ARE PUSHING OTHERS DANGEROUSLY . PUSHING ‘PLANETARY BOUNDARIES’ SOUMYA DUTTA

26. DISTRIBUTED, COMMUNITY CONTROLLED MULTIPLE ENERGY COULD BE ONE ANSWER SOUMYA DUTTA WIND SUN  EARTH’s HEAT  PRIMARY BIOLOGICAL / PLANT PRODUCTIVITY OUR ENERGY-NEEDS ARE DISTRIBUTED ALL AROUND THE WORLD, WHERE-EVER WE LIVE. SO ARE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES. WE HAVE VARIETIES OF ENERGY-NEEDS, HEAT, MOTION, LIGHT, …….. RENEWABLES ARE SIMILARLY VARIABLE FOR ORDINARY HUMAN NEEDS, SMALL ENERGY-AMOUNTS ARE NEDED, RENEWABLES ARE ‘DILUTE’ SOURCES;

28. PETROLEUM – INDIA & THE WORLD INDIA PETROLEUM – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION WORLD PETROLEUM – PRODUCTION SOUMYA DUTTA 2.5 Mn BARRELS/DAY -vs- 85 Mn BARRELS/DAY 120 CRORE PEOPLE 685 CRORE PEOPLE

29. NATURAL GAS – INDIA & THE WORLD SOUMYA DUTTA PRODUCTION-CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS STARTED PEAKING UP IN 2000’s

31. ELECTRICITY GENERATION : 1990-2006 WITH ~17% OF WORLD POPULATION, INDIA GENERATES (2006) ~3% OF ITS TOTAL ELECTRICITY; AND MOST OF IT FROM COAL, LARGE HYDRO, GAS. INDIA WORLD SOUMYA DUTTA

34. LARGE NOS. STILL USE TRADITIONAL BIO-MASS DISPLACING FROM FOREST CREATES LARGE MARKET DESIGN BEHIND REDD+, KITCHEN-SOOT SCARE ? MAJOR PORTIONS OF GLOBAL TOTAL RENEWABLE ENERGY IS STILL TRADITIONAL BIO-MASS, USED BY THE POOR FIRE-WOOD LPG DUNG K ERSN > 76% RURAL HOUSE-HOLDS USE FIRE-WOOD, ONLY ~10% RURAL HHs HAVE ACCESS TO LPG OR KEROSENE SOUMYA DUTTA

35. WHERE IN INDIA ARE THE ENERGY SOURCES AND THE POLLUTING POWER PLANTS THAT CONVERT THIS ENERGY TO USEABLE FORMS ? SOUMYA DUTTA BOTH POLLUTING COAL-PLANTS & DANGEROUS NUCLEAR PLANTS ARE LOCATED CLOSE TO HIGH POPULATION DENSITY AREAS.

36. ENERGY & MINERAL SOURCE/ PLANT LOCATIONS AND WHO GETS ‘POWER’ FROM THESE SOUMYA DUTTA PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRIFIED RURAL HOUSE-HOLDS -> DARK RED <10%, DARK GREEN > 85% TPPs ARE BLACK-DOTs, COAL-FIELDS –BLUE DROPs , HYDEL PLANTS – BLUE SQRS, ……… CONCENTRATIONS MATCH - IN REVERSE !! OPERATION POWER-HUNT ?

37. ANOTHER PICTURE OF HUGE DISPARITIES THAT HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN DECADES 43% - NO ELECTRICITY, 33% - LESS THAN 50 KwH/Month, 11% - 50-100 KwH/M, 13% - >100 KwH/M; (PRAYAS) ELECTRICITY SOUMYA DUTTA HUGE DISPARITIES BETWEEN STATES & BETWEEN URBAN & RURAL – IN ELECTR. CONSUMPTION -> RICH-POOR DIVIDE.