Apresentação sobre a dinâmica demográfica brasileira exibida durante a reunião plenária da Comissão Nacional sobre População e Desenvolvimento (CNPD), realizada no dia 20 de fevereiro, em Brasília. Autores: Ricardo Paes de Barros, Diana Coutinho e Rosane Mendonça. Leia mais em: www.sae.gov.br

1. Brazilian Demographic
Dynamics and Population
Policy Responses
Ricardo Paes de Barros
Diana Coutinho
Rosane Mendonça
Nelspruit, March 2014

2. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Population(million)
Actual and Expected Evolution of the Brazilian Population from 1872 to 2060
17,3 million
173 million
228 million
100 years
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
2014
40 years
A. Demographic dynamics

3. A. Demographic dynamics
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
ratesperthousandpersons
Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Natural growth rate
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V
2014

4. A. Demographic dynamics
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
ratesperthousandpersons
Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Net migration rate
Natural growth rate
Population growth rate
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V
2014

5. B. Health transition
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
InfantMortaliyRate(‰)
LifeExpectancyatBirth(years)
Actual and Predicted Evolution of Life Expectancy at Birth and Infat Mortality
Rate: Brazil, 1910-2060
Life Expectancy
1/3
22 years
2014
1/2 extra year of life
per calendar year
Infant Mortality Rate
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
40
70
48
16

6. Life expectancy in Brazilian Municipalities: 1991
1991- Esperançadevidaaonascer 06/01/14
Source: HDI-M Atlas
Realização:
2010- Esperançadevidaaonascer
LEGENDA
B. Health transition

7. Life expectancy in Brazilian Municipalities: 2010
2010- Esperançadevidaaonascer 06/01/14
Source: HDI-M Atlas
Realização:
2010- Esperançadevidaaonascer
LEGENDA
B. Health transition

8. B. Health transition

9. Infant mortality rate in Brazilian Municipalities
Source: HDI-M Atlas
B. Health transition
2010- Mortalidadeatéumanodeidade
LEGENDA
Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013
Mapa
- Mortalidadeatéumanodeidade 06/01/14
LEGENDA
1991 2010
LEGENDA

10. B. Health transition

11. 0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
TotalFertilityRate(birthsperwomen)
Actual and Predicted Evolution of Total Fertility Rate : Brazil, 1940-2060
40 years
1/3
6 births
2 births
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
C. Fertility decline

12. C. Fertility decline
Source: HDI-M Atlas
Total fertility rate in Brazilian Municipalities
1991 2010

13. 0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0,20
0,22
0,24
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Fertilityrate(birthperwomen)
Evolution of the Brazilian age-specific fertility rates: 1980-2030
15 to 19
years old
20 to 29
years old
30 to 39
years old
40 to 49
years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
C. Fertility decline

14. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
percenatgeofbirths
Evolution of births according the the age of the mother:
Brazil, 1980-2030
30 to 39 years old
20 to 29 years old
40 to 49 years old
15 to 19 years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
C. Fertility decline

15. 1. Improvements in family living conditions, in particular, in the
educational achievement of women.
2. Improvements in the status of women, in particular those
related to the increase in female labor force participation
and labor income.
3. Access to information and orientation on contraceptive
methods.
4. Easy and free access to a variety of contraceptive methods.
5. Freedom to choose the contraceptive methods of ones own
choice.
Determinants of the Decline in Fertility
Rates
C. Fertility decline

16. C.1. Improvements in living conditions

17. C.1. Improvements in living conditions

18. 0,50
0,52
0,54
0,56
0,58
0,60
0,62
0,64
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
GiniIndex
Evolution of income inequality
Brazil 1976-2011
Source: SAE/PR based on the PNADs from 1976 to 2011.
C.1. Improvements in living conditions

19. C.1. Improvements in living conditions

20. 0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
HDI
Percentage of municipalities and countries
Distributionof Brazilian municipalities and countries of the World according to
HDI, 2010
Source: SAE/PR, based on Demographic Census 2000 and 2010 and HDI as calculated by the UNDP, Human Development Report
Brazil - 2010
World- 2010
Uganda
Netherlands
85%
C.1. Improvements in living conditions

21. Indicator Public School
AIDS or other sexually transmitted diseases 84
Pregnancy prevention methods 82
Free acess of condoms and other options for pregnacy
prevention
64
Percentage of students in the 8th grade who have received
information in school regarding:
Access to sexual and reproductive information:
Brazil - 2009
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisa, Coordenação de População e Indicadores Sociais, Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar 2009.
C.3. Access to information on conceptive methods

22. C.4. Easy and free access to contraceptives methods and preservatives
Type
Quantity
(million)
30,7
3,6
7,4
3,6
1,0
850
25
0,063
0,773
Male sterilization (Vasectomy) 0,039
Female sterilization (Tubal Ligation) 0,065
Intra Uterine Device (IUD)
Free access to contraceptives methods and
preservatives
Combined pill (Ethinylestradiol and Levonorgestrel)
Source: Helvécio M . M agalhães Júnior (M inistry of Health), 2014
Minipill (Norethisterone)
Emergency oral contraception (Levonorgestrel)
Monthly injection (Estradiol Valerate and Norethisterone Enanthate)
Quarterly injection (Valerate Medroxyprogesterone)
Diaphragm
Female preservative (Condoms)
Male preservative (Condoms)

23. C.5. Freedom to choose the preferred contraceptive method
LEI Nº 9.263, DE 12 DE JANEIRO DE 1996.
Art. 2º:Para fins desta Lei, entende-se planejamento familiar como o conjunto
de ações de regulação da fecundidade que garanta direitos iguais de
constituição, limitação ou aumento da prole pela mulher, pelo homem ou pelo
casal.
Parágrafo único: É proibida a utilização das ações a que se refere o caput para
qualquer tipo de controle demográfico
Art. 5º: É dever do Estado, através do Sistema Único de Saúde, em associação,
no que couber, às instâncias componentes do sistema educacional, promover
condições e recursos informativos, educacionais, técnicos e científicos que
assegurem o livre exercício do planejamento familiar.
Art. 9º: Para o exercício do direito ao planejamento familiar, serão oferecidos
todos os métodos e técnicas de concepção e contracepção cientificamente
aceitos e que não coloquem em risco a vida e a saúde das pessoas, garantida a
liberdade de opção.

24. C.5. Freedom to choose the preferred contraceptive method
Family Planning Law
Law No. 9263, January 12th, 1996
Art. 2º: ..... family planning is understood as the complete set of actions aimed
at regulating fertility ......
Single paragraph: It is forbidden the use of any family plan action for any type
of demographic control.
Art. 5º: It is a State obligation ……. to ensure all the conditions and resources
….. necessary for the free exercise of family planning.
Art. 9º: … It will be offered all contraceptive methods and techniques
scientifically accepted that do not threat health, ensuring freedom of choice.

25. BC. Health transition and fertility decline
Source: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 3.

26. D. Demographic bonus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
population(million)
Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060
Less than 15 or at
least 60 years old
Between 15 and
59 years old
65
million
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

27. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
percentageofthepopulation(%)
Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups:
1900 to 2060
Less than 15 or at
least 60 years old
Between 15 and
59 years old
30 p.p.
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
D. Demographic bonus