Presentation made by Simon Cater at the RUFORUM Biennial Conference 2012

1. “GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE FUTURE OF AFRICAN
AGRICULTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION?”
Simon Carter
Regional Director, East and Southern Africa Office
International Development Research Centre

2. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
1. Environmental
US$4 Billion per year: estimated value of soil degradation losses
80%: proportion of farmers dependent solely on rainfed
agriculture
20-30%: Estimated reduction in dryland crop yield in Southern
Africa due to climate change by 2050
2

3. Investments in African agriculture
US$2.5 billion: amount spent annually to enhance productivity
0.75%: Average proportion of GDP African countries invest in
agriculture.
9834: Recent estimate of the number of African public sector
agricultural researchers
3

4. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
1. Environmental
2. Social challenges and health
4

6. Projected impact of HIV/AIDS on agricultural labor in
selected countries
Namibia Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambi South Kenya
que Africa
HIV Prevalence 22.5 38.8 33.7 13.0 20.1 15.0
Rate 2001
Projected loss -26 -23 -23 -20 -20 -17.0
in agric. labor
(%) to 2020
Projected 62.7 58 624.5 1 186.0 383.0 1 287.6
number deaths
(000) to 2020
(Source: Adapted from FAO, 2000; UNAIDS, 2002, cited in Coulibaly, 2003)
6

7. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
1. Environmental
2. Social challenges and health
3. Conflict
7

8. Conflict and fragility in Africa, 2011
8

9. Estimates of agricultural losses due to armed conflict
Country Years Cumulative Annual Annual total loss Annual losses per agric.
total loss total loss as % of agric. Worker (1999-2001
(USD) (USD) Output USD)
Angola 1976-2002 2,995,303 106,975 15.9 30.06
Burundi 1998-2002 171,967 34,393 5.3 11.13
Chad 1966-1990 636,664 25,467 4.6 12.43
DRC 1996-2001 1,321,311 220,218 7.7 16.78
Liberia 1990-1992 18,162 6,054 4.1 10.48
Mozambique 1964-1974 235,172 21,379 2.5 4.87
1981-1992 1,181,461 98,455 12.2 16.98
Namibia 1980-1988 39,131 4,348 1.9 17.44
Nigeria 1967-1970 2,150,667 537,667 6.7 35.04
Somalia 1988-1996 275,032 30,559 3.2 14.61
Sudan 1963-1972 690,975 69,098 3.2 16.40
1983-2003 2,424,773 115,465 3.1 16.85
Uganda 1978-1989 289,271 26,297 0.8 3.61
Average 956,145 99,721 5.49 15.9
Source: IANSA, Oxfam and Saferworld, 2007
9

10. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
1. Environmental
2. Social challenges and health
3. Conflict
4. Institutional and policy weaknesses
5. Economic change
10

11. MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION
1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems
• Entry points – e.g. girls’ education
• Bottlenecks – e.g. storage, insecure tenure
• Levers on system evolution – e.g. taxation
11

12. MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION
1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems
2. Train and reward people to work collaboratively
12

13. Systems research chairs: some suggestions
• Health and nutrition in agri-food systems
• Agri-business and value chains
• Rural energy systems
• Governance of water resources
• Adaptation and risk management
13

14. Partnerships in a Latin American research
programme on rural territorial development
Source: Annual report, Rural Territorial Development programme, RIMISP, 2010 14

15. MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION
1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems
2. Train and reward people to work collaboratively
3. Build the capacity to learn from mistakes
4. Build trust in institutions
5. Educate people to foster rural innovation systems
15

16. www.idrc.ca
scarter@idrc.ca