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Developing Electric
Value Added
December 17, 2010
Justin Bean      Obrie Hostetter

Katie Dunn       Tim McLaughlin

Rudi Halbright
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Outline




Developing Electric Value Added
Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan




• 80% Reduction by 2050 and 33% Reduction by 2020
• Potential to Save to 140,000 Metric Tons of CO2


        Developing Electric Value Added
Who is Berkel
                               ey?

•   Population 107,000
•   67% have bachelors degree+
•   Berkeley FIRST
•   PACE




      Developing Electric Value Added
Technology O verview

          EV              Vs              PHEV




                       Charging
Level 1                120 Volts           8 to 20 hours
Level 2                220 to 240 Volts    4 to 6 hours
Faster Charger (DC)    480 Volts           10 to 30 Minutes


   Developing Electric Value Added
M a r k e t O v e r v ie w

      • 841,000 EV & PHEV’s by 2015
      • Favorable Federal and State Policies
         • 14.4B – ARRA
         • Consumer Tax Credits
              $7,500 fed tax credit
              $5,000 CA tax credit
              $2,000 fed tax credit for charging




Developing Electric Value Added
M arket O verview- Hybrid s are a pred ictor of EV sales




      Developing Electric Value Added
M arket O verview- EV D em and in Berkeley

 • 2.8% of vehicle registrations are Hybrids
 • Toyota - 500 PHEV’s on waiting list
 • Nissan – Sold out!




        Developing Electric Value Added
Focus of other cities




         Portland                     New York                      San Francisco



Key Focus                      Key Focus                    Key Focus

All car commuters              Early adopters only          Long-term integrated

                                                            transportation plan

Key Strategies                 Key Strategies

Easy access to charging        Commercial parking           Key Strategies

stations and permitting        garages                      Public parking in dense

          Developing Electric Value Added
Leverage municipal EV fleet Not offering incentives, only   areas
Strategy C anvas




        Developing Electric Value Added
SWO T Highlights


                      Strengths                  Weaknesses
               •Progressive Berkeley       •Barriers to residential
               residents                   charging
               •CAP goals                  •Late for grants
               •Measure R                  •Funding
               •Small city: minimal EV
               infrastructure big impact


                   Opportunities                   Threats
               •2nd mover to learn from    •Other alternative fuel
               other cities                vehicles might prevail
               •Can be leading city for    •CoB disconnected from
               range of options            Bay Area corridor
               •Funding available          •Charging technology not
               •Bay area network           completely standardized




       Developing Electric Value Added
Future Scenarios




Developing Electric Value Added
Within 3 months
Recom m end ations




      Facilitate EV usage for early adopters
         • Charging strategies for EV-driver profiles
         • Fast-track permitting
         • Carshare and commercial parking lot charging
         • Secure grant monies and incentives ASAP


        Developing Electric Value Added
Within 3 to 6 months
Recom m end ations

 • Monitor Station usage for
   future siting

 • Install opportunity
   charging stations in
   shopping districts and
   high-traffic areas

 • Develop transportation
   integration strategies

 • Encourage use of the
   entire transportation
   system


        Developing Electric Value Added
Within 18 months and on-going
Recom m end ations
 Evaluate & Educate
  • Move 2nd: reduce risks and
    costly mistakes                                         Move 2nd
  • Monitor other cities’
    solutions

  • Disseminate information
    online and through
    community

  • Showcase innovative pilot
    projects, including
    educational components
  for the community

        Developing Electric Value Added
Resid ential C urbsid e C harging
  Not recommended at this time

  Challenges:
  •Uncertain commitment
  to charging technology
  •Permitting issues
  •No clear solutions in other
  cities
  •Large, complicated
  investment
  •Lack of data



        Developing Electric Value Added
Resid ential C urbsid e C harging
Short-term recommendations
•Push EV parking & charging policies

•Provide information about other charging
options

•Encourage communities to install
charging stations on private property

•Encourage permittable owner-initiated
solutions

•Facilitate relationships between private
owners of charging stations and EV
owners

        Developing Electric Value Added
Financial Analysis: C harging Station Network

    Our Task
    Build low-risk model that is
    financially and environmentally
    sustainable.

    Four Model
        A.   Grid Powered
        B.   ClimateSmart
        C.   PV Purchase
        D.   PV Lease

    Constraints
        •    Lack of data
        •    Limited budget




        Developing Electric Value Added
Finding WACC




 WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] + [ E/V * Re ]




    Developing Electric Value Added
Finding WACC




                Municipal Bonds
                   •10 yr
                   •AA
                   •Callable
                   •Revenue




    Developing Electric Value Added
The Tool

                                       3 Steps:
                                       2. Input assumptions
                                       3. Compare scenarios
                                            NPV
                                            IRR
                                            Payback
                                            Capital Outlay
                                       4. Make conclusion




     Developing Electric Value Added
The Tool

                                       X 4 Steps:
                                       3
                                       2. Input assumptions
                                       3. Compare scenarios
                                            NPV
                                            IRR
                                            Payback
                                            Capital Outlay
                                       4. Make conclusion
                                       5. Monitor, reassess
                                          assumptions




     Developing Electric Value Added
Our Calculations


                                            C a p it a l
                    NPV                                         P a yb a c k
                                  IR R     In v e s t m e
                  (tho us a nd                                   P e r io d
                       s )                       nt               ( ye a r s )
                                           ( tho u s a nd s )

A: Grid Energy       $490        103%            $49                 1.2


B: ClimateSmart      $486        102%            $49                 1.1


C: PV Purchase       $190          5%          $1,120               10.0


D: PV Lease          $593         79%            $80                 1.4




         Developing Electric Value Added
A Visual Comparison




     Developing Electric Value Added
A Visual Comparison: Flipped




     Developing Electric Value Added
Sensitivity Analysis: IRR



                                       Variables
                                       • daily demand
                                       • charging price




     Developing Electric Value Added
Financial Analysis Summary

 Our Task
 Build low risk model that is
 financially and
 environmentally sustainable.

 Recommended Scenario
    A.   Baseline
    B.   ClimateSmart
    C.   PV Purchase
    D.   PV Lease*

    *Invest in charging stations,
       monitor real demand, then
       move forward.




     Developing Electric Value Added
In Sum


Start now
•Grant money for stations
•Appease early adopters

Emergent Strategy
•Monitor other cities
•Monitor local demand

Systems Approach
EVs are not THE answer
but a part of it




     Developing Electric Value Added

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City of Berkeley Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy

  • 1. Developing Electric Value Added December 17, 2010 Justin Bean Obrie Hostetter Katie Dunn Tim McLaughlin Rudi Halbright
  • 7. Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan • 80% Reduction by 2050 and 33% Reduction by 2020 • Potential to Save to 140,000 Metric Tons of CO2 Developing Electric Value Added
  • 8. Who is Berkel ey? • Population 107,000 • 67% have bachelors degree+ • Berkeley FIRST • PACE Developing Electric Value Added
  • 9. Technology O verview EV Vs PHEV Charging Level 1 120 Volts 8 to 20 hours Level 2 220 to 240 Volts 4 to 6 hours Faster Charger (DC) 480 Volts 10 to 30 Minutes Developing Electric Value Added
  • 10. M a r k e t O v e r v ie w • 841,000 EV & PHEV’s by 2015 • Favorable Federal and State Policies • 14.4B – ARRA • Consumer Tax Credits  $7,500 fed tax credit  $5,000 CA tax credit  $2,000 fed tax credit for charging Developing Electric Value Added
  • 11. M arket O verview- Hybrid s are a pred ictor of EV sales Developing Electric Value Added
  • 12. M arket O verview- EV D em and in Berkeley • 2.8% of vehicle registrations are Hybrids • Toyota - 500 PHEV’s on waiting list • Nissan – Sold out! Developing Electric Value Added
  • 13. Focus of other cities Portland New York San Francisco Key Focus Key Focus Key Focus All car commuters Early adopters only Long-term integrated transportation plan Key Strategies Key Strategies Easy access to charging Commercial parking Key Strategies stations and permitting garages Public parking in dense Developing Electric Value Added Leverage municipal EV fleet Not offering incentives, only areas
  • 14. Strategy C anvas Developing Electric Value Added
  • 15. SWO T Highlights Strengths Weaknesses •Progressive Berkeley •Barriers to residential residents charging •CAP goals •Late for grants •Measure R •Funding •Small city: minimal EV infrastructure big impact Opportunities Threats •2nd mover to learn from •Other alternative fuel other cities vehicles might prevail •Can be leading city for •CoB disconnected from range of options Bay Area corridor •Funding available •Charging technology not •Bay area network completely standardized Developing Electric Value Added
  • 17. Within 3 months Recom m end ations Facilitate EV usage for early adopters • Charging strategies for EV-driver profiles • Fast-track permitting • Carshare and commercial parking lot charging • Secure grant monies and incentives ASAP Developing Electric Value Added
  • 18. Within 3 to 6 months Recom m end ations • Monitor Station usage for future siting • Install opportunity charging stations in shopping districts and high-traffic areas • Develop transportation integration strategies • Encourage use of the entire transportation system Developing Electric Value Added
  • 19. Within 18 months and on-going Recom m end ations Evaluate & Educate • Move 2nd: reduce risks and costly mistakes Move 2nd • Monitor other cities’ solutions • Disseminate information online and through community • Showcase innovative pilot projects, including educational components for the community Developing Electric Value Added
  • 20. Resid ential C urbsid e C harging Not recommended at this time Challenges: •Uncertain commitment to charging technology •Permitting issues •No clear solutions in other cities •Large, complicated investment •Lack of data Developing Electric Value Added
  • 21. Resid ential C urbsid e C harging Short-term recommendations •Push EV parking & charging policies •Provide information about other charging options •Encourage communities to install charging stations on private property •Encourage permittable owner-initiated solutions •Facilitate relationships between private owners of charging stations and EV owners Developing Electric Value Added
  • 22. Financial Analysis: C harging Station Network Our Task Build low-risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable. Four Model A. Grid Powered B. ClimateSmart C. PV Purchase D. PV Lease Constraints • Lack of data • Limited budget Developing Electric Value Added
  • 23. Finding WACC WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] + [ E/V * Re ] Developing Electric Value Added
  • 24. Finding WACC Municipal Bonds •10 yr •AA •Callable •Revenue Developing Electric Value Added
  • 25. The Tool 3 Steps: 2. Input assumptions 3. Compare scenarios  NPV  IRR  Payback  Capital Outlay 4. Make conclusion Developing Electric Value Added
  • 26. The Tool X 4 Steps: 3 2. Input assumptions 3. Compare scenarios  NPV  IRR  Payback  Capital Outlay 4. Make conclusion 5. Monitor, reassess assumptions Developing Electric Value Added
  • 27. Our Calculations C a p it a l NPV P a yb a c k IR R In v e s t m e (tho us a nd P e r io d s ) nt ( ye a r s ) ( tho u s a nd s ) A: Grid Energy $490 103% $49 1.2 B: ClimateSmart $486 102% $49 1.1 C: PV Purchase $190 5% $1,120 10.0 D: PV Lease $593 79% $80 1.4 Developing Electric Value Added
  • 28. A Visual Comparison Developing Electric Value Added
  • 29. A Visual Comparison: Flipped Developing Electric Value Added
  • 30. Sensitivity Analysis: IRR Variables • daily demand • charging price Developing Electric Value Added
  • 31. Financial Analysis Summary Our Task Build low risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable. Recommended Scenario A. Baseline B. ClimateSmart C. PV Purchase D. PV Lease* *Invest in charging stations, monitor real demand, then move forward. Developing Electric Value Added
  • 32. In Sum Start now •Grant money for stations •Appease early adopters Emergent Strategy •Monitor other cities •Monitor local demand Systems Approach EVs are not THE answer but a part of it Developing Electric Value Added

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Threats: