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INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




                     The Clean
                     Transport Opportunity
                     ASIA CLEANTECH CAPITAL




    PROPRIETARY
1   & CONFIDENTIAL
Introduction
                     Size of the Opportunity



 o
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




                     Source: IEA, EIA, company.
                     SOURCE: IEA, EIA, SIMMONS INTERNATIONAL, COMPANY ESTIMATES.




    PROPRIETARY
2   & CONFIDENTIAL
Introduction
                     Crisis

                     Oil production likely peaked in May, 2005 *SIMMONS

                     Majority of remaining reserves are controlled by historically unstable regimes

 o                   The financial crisis and low oil prices have curbed investment

                     The oil workforce and infrastructure is rusting
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS           Oil is the single feedstock for 95% of transportation
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




    PROPRIETARY
3   & CONFIDENTIAL
Introduction
                     Opportunity

                     Oil is temporarily mispriced as prices are based on short-term supply/demand. The markets
                     are missing the medium and longer term supply shortages.



 o                       $50-60 oil is
                                                                      Demand growth
                                                                                                After recent
                                                                                                price shock,
                          very cheap                                                           governments
                                                                     from China, India,
                        (below cost of                                                          are seeking
                                                                     and ME is massive
INTRODUCTION            future supply)                                                        energy diversity
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
                                                                                                and security
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




                          Investment
                                               Global mandates
                         community is                                                           Disruptive
                                                  for reduced
                           starting to                                                        technology is
                                                emissions and
                          appreciate                                                         quickly emerging
                                               alternative fuels
                           “peak oil”




    PROPRIETARY
4   & CONFIDENTIAL
Introduction
                     Window of Opportunistic Investments


                     In the next 3-5 years, we will likely experience much higher and volatile oil prices.
                     Transportation provides the single most compelling investment opportunity.
 o                   A transformation is occurring in electric vehicles, next generation biofuels,
                     hydrogen, and fuel efficiency. We see an opportunistic focus in:
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS           ‣ New fuel resources
                     ‣ Vehicles
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT
                     ‣ Fuel efficiency




    PROPRIETARY
5   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                     We are out of cheap oil
                     160



                     140                                                                                                                                                                                              Remaining oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   reserves are largely

 o                   120
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   offshore, tar sands,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    and oil shale all of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    which are feasible
                     100                                                                                                                                                                                               at US$80+
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION        80
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT

                      60



                      40



                      20



                           0

                                  02             2               3                3
                                                                                                04                  4             05              6            06          07           7           08           09                 X
                              0               00              00                00                               00              0              00           20           0          00          20           20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   X
                           -2              -2             r-2                t-2            -2
                                                                                               0
                                                                                                              -2             l-2               2                       -2          -2           -            -                  20
                       an                 g              a               c                ay             ec             Ju                  b-             p-        pr          ov          un           an
                      J                Au            M               O                M              D                                 Fe             Se            A           N           J            J



                     "Current oil prices don’t take into account the medium and longer term supply
                     shortages and increasing cost of future production.“
    PROPRIETARY       Source: NYMEX.
6   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                          The Oil Age

                          World Crude Oil Production, 1960 - 2007
                           Source: Simmons International.



                     mb/d 140


 o
                          105
                                                                                                    It is likely
INTRODUCTION                                                                                    that we reached
THE CRISIS                                                                                      peak production
TRANSPORTATION
                                                                                                  in May 2005
OPPORTUNITY                70
CONTACT                                                                                            (Simmons)



                           35




                                                                                                                   2005
                            0
                              1960                          1968   1976   1984        1992           2000                 2007


                          "The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under
                          consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion.“
                          -- Colin Campbell



    PROPRIETARY
7   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                                           Rapid Fall Off in Production
                                             120




                     MILLION BARRELS/DAY     100


 o                                             80


INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
                                               60
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT                                                                                                                                         We should
                                                                                                                                               be investing
                                               40
                                                                                                                                               massively in
                                                                                                                                                   E&P!

                                               20




                                                0

                                                 1990                                      2000                       2010              2020                       2030



                                                                  CRUDE OIL - FIELDS YET                       CRUDE OIL - FIELDS YET      CRUDE OIL - CURRENTLY
                                                                  TO BE FOUND                                  TO BE DEVELOPED             PRODUCING FIELDS


                                           SOURCE: IHS, DELOITTE, USGS DATABASE, IEA, SIMMONS INTERNATIONAL.




    PROPRIETARY
8   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                     Despite High Oil Prices, Output Flat

                     Countries with Increasing Production vs. Rest of World Decline
                     Source: Simmons International.




 o
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




                     Despite high oil prices and an increase in E&P spending from US$100 billion
                     to $400 billion (2000 to 2006), oil production has remained flat.

                     *Recently have also fallen into decline.

    PROPRIETARY
9   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                      Energy security

                      Proved reserves at end of 2007
                      (Billions of barrels)
                      Source: Statistical Review of World Energy 2008




 o
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




     PROPRIETARY
10   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                            Consumption is patently unsustainable

                            Top Consuming Countries, 1960 - 2006
                                Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec11_20.pdf




                                            24
 o
                      MILLION BARRELS/DAY




                                                                                             UNITED STATES

INTRODUCTION                                18
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT



                                            12
                                                                                                  FORMER U.S.S.R.




                                             6                                                      JAPAN

                                                                                                                                                   RUSSIA
                                                                                                  CHINA
                                                                                                                                                INDIA

                                             0
                                             1960        1965            1970            1975         1980          1985   1990   1995   2000           2005

                                                                                                                                                        YEAR




     PROPRIETARY
11   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                      Decline Rates in the Gulf of Mexico
                      16                               100                      60                     60                    10
                      14                                                        50                     50
                      12                                80                                             40                     8
                      10                                60                      40                                            6
                       8                                                        30                     30
                       6                                40                      20                     20                     4
                       4                                20                                             10                     2
                       2   Amberjack                         Auger              10   Baldpate                   Brutus             Cognac
                       0                                 0                       0                      0                     0


 o

                             D




                                                              D




                                                                                                                                     D
                                                                                       D




                                                                                                              D
                            98
                            00
                            02
                            04

                        08 6



                                                             98


                                                             02
                                                             04
                                                         08 6




                                                                                    20 8
                                                                                      00
                                                                                      02
                                                                                      04
                                                                                      06




                                                                                                           20 8
                                                                                                             00
                                                                                                             02
                                                                                                             04
                                                                                                             06



                                                                                                                                    98
                                                                                                                                    00
                                                                                                                                    02
                                                                                                                                    04

                                                                                                                                08 6
                                                             00
                      20 200




                                                       20 200




                                                                                                                              20 200
                                                                                      9




                                                                                                             9
                           YT




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                          19
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                          20




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                                                                                                                                  19
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                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                  08




                                                                                                         08
                      50                               100
                                                                                40                     60                    300
                      40                                80                                             50                    250
                      30                                                        30                     40                    200
INTRODUCTION                                            60
                      20                                40                      20                     30                    150
THE CRISIS                                                            Horn                    Llano    20                    100
                      10                                20           Mtn/King   10                     10                     50
TRANSPORTATION
                                  Hoover                                                    (GB 387)        Lobster/Oyster         Mars-Ursa
OPPORTUNITY            0                                 0                       0                      0                      0
CONTACT




                                                              D




                                                                                       D
                             D




                                                         08 6




                                                                                                              D




                                                                                                                                     D
                            98
                            00
                            02
                            04
                        08 6




                                                             98
                                                             00
                                                             02
                                                             04




                                                                                      98
                                                                                      00
                                                                                      02
                                                                                      04

                                                                                  08 6




                                                                                                           20 8
                                                                                                             00
                                                                                                             02
                                                                                                             04
                                                                                                         08 6




                                                                                                                                  20 8
                                                                                                                                  20 0
                                                                                                                                    02

                                                                                                                                  20 4
                                                                                                                                08 06
                                                       20 200




                                                                                20 200
                      20 200




                                                                                                             9




                                                                                                       20 200




                                                                                                                                    9
                                                                                                                                    0


                                                                                                                                    0
                                                            YT




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                          19
                          20
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                          20




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                                                                                                                                  19



                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                                              50
                      35                               30                       30                     60                     45
                      30                               25                       25                     50                     40
                      25                                                                                                      35
                                                       20                       20                     40                     30
                      20                                                                                                      25
                      15                               15                       15                     30                     20
                      10                Nansen         10    Neptune            10                     20                     15   Ram-Powell
                                                        5                                                                     10
                       5               (EB 602)              (VK 825)            5                     10   Pompano            5    (VK 956)
                       0                                                                Phoenix                                0
                                                        0                        0                      0
                             D




                                                              D




                                                                                       D




                                                                                                                                     D
                            02
                            04

                        08 6




                                                         08 6




                                                                                      04

                                                                                  08 6




                                                                                                              D
                            98
                            00




                                                             98
                                                             00
                                                             02
                                                             04




                                                                                      98
                                                                                      00
                                                                                      02




                                                                                                           20 8
                                                                                                             00
                                                                                                             02
                                                                                                             04
                                                                                                             06



                                                                                                                                    98
                                                                                                                                    00
                                                                                                                                    02
                                                                                                                                    04

                                                                                                                                08 6
                      20 200




                                                       20 0




                                                                                20 200




                                                                                                             9




                                                                                                                              20 200
                           YT




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                                                                                                            YT
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                          20




                                                                                    20
                          19
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                                                           19
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                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                       20 20



                                                                                                                                  19
                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                         08
                      Select Gulf of Mexico oil fields. Cantarell, one of the world’s largest deepwater oil fields
                      peaked in 2004, with collapsing production.
                      Source: Simmons International.




     PROPRIETARY
12   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                      Rise of Resource Nationalism


                                          Independents
                                            (such as BP,

 o                                         ExxonMobil)
                                           own or have
                                        access to less than
                                         10% of world oil
                                             resources.                  RECENT EXAMPLES
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
                                                               Russia shutting off of natural gas supply to
CONTACT                                                                   Ukraine and Europe
                        65% of reserves are                              ----------------------
                        held by state-owned
                                                              Venezuela’s nationalization of international oil
                        companies, mostly in
                                                                              major projects
                              MENA.
                                                                         ----------------------

                                                                Indonesia cutting back on energy exports,
                                                              threatening to seize Natuna from ExxonMobil
                                                                         ----------------------
                               Remainder is located             China developing Iranian oil field against
                                in countries such as                    international sanctions
                               Venezuela and Russia
                                  where access is
                                      difficult.




     PROPRIETARY
13   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                      Financial Crisis has Hit New Investment
                      Source: Energy Current:
                      “Global E&P Expenditures”
                      Wall Street Journal




 o                                                                                            North America

                                                                                              US: -26%
                                         2009 E&P BUDGETS DOWN 12%                            Canada: -23%

INTRODUCTION
                                           FIRST DECLINE IN 9 YEARS
THE CRISIS                                       (LARGE CUTS)
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
                                                     ----------------------
CONTACT
                                           Estimated 85% of new refining capacity has
                                          been canceled or postponed. Unless oil prices
                                          are higher than an estimated $80, deep water         Russia
                                          drilling, oil shale, and tar sands are not viable
                                                                                               Lukoil: -50%
                                                                                               Surgutneftegaz,
                                                                                               Gazprom Neft,
                                                                                               Rosneft, TNK:
                                                                                               -20% to -26%



                                                                            Middle East /
                                                                            Asia Pacific

                                                                            Mixed results
                                                                            (both increases
                                                                            & decreases)


     PROPRIETARY
14   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                      Rusting of industry

                      Worldwide energy infrastructure is too old

                      Labor force is graying and retiring

 o                    Past 4 months alone, 40,000 industry hires were fired
                      (likely more than all hires 2006 - 2008)

                      Average age of US pipeline is 80 years
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
                      80% of rigs must be replaced
CONTACT
                      Source: Simmons International.




     PROPRIETARY
15   & CONFIDENTIAL
The Crisis
                                   No end to Emissions
                                   30,000




                      MTONS/YEAR
                                             CARBON EMISSIONS FROM GAS FLARING


                                   25,000    CARBON EMISSIONS FROM SOLID FUEL


 o
                                             CONSUMPTION
                                                                                                            Massive
                                             CARBON EMISSIONS FROM LIQUID FUEL
                                                                                                       increase in global
                                             CONSUMPTION
                                   20,000                                                                emissions post
                                             CARBON EMISSIONS FROM GAS FUEL                             industrialization.
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
                                             CONSUMPTION
TRANSPORTATION
                                   15,000
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT

                                                                                  Transportation is
                                                                                 a major contributor
                                   10,000
                                                                                 to climate change.



                                    5,000




                                       0
                                               51
                                               58
                                               65
                                               72
                                               79
                                               86
                                               93
                                               00
                                               07
                                               14




                                               33
                                               21
                                               28
                                               35
                                               42
                                               49
                                               56
                                               63
                                               70
                                               77
                                               84
                                               91
                                               98
                                               05
                                               12
                                               19
                                               26


                                               40
                                               47
                                               54
                                               61
                                               68
                                               75
                                               82
                                               89
                                               96
                                               03
                                        17
                                            17
                                            17
                                            17
                                            17
                                            17
                                            17
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18




                                            19
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            18
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19


                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            19
                                            20
                                                                                                                                          YEAR
                                                                                                                             Source: Deutsche Bank




     PROPRIETARY
16   & CONFIDENTIAL
Transportation
                                              History of Transport Fuels

                                                                                                        CARBON NEUTRAL         CARBON
                                                                                                        TRANSPORTATION         TRANSPORTATION

                      TRANSPORTATION DEMAND



 o                                                        Key Drivers

                                                 Declining fossil fuel supplies
INTRODUCTION
                                                   Fuel supply security and
THE CRISIS                                              diversification
TRANSPORTATION                                         Global emissions
OPPORTUNITY                                       Governmental regulations
CONTACT




                                                                                                TODAY                                          TIME
                                               Natural Fuel                       Fossil Fuel                              New Fuel
                                                  Wind                                Oil                             Carbon neutral fuels
                                               Horsepower                            Gas                             Electricity (renewable)
17   PROPRIETARY                                                                     Coal                                Synthetic fuels
     & CONFIDENTIAL
                                                                                                                           Hydrogen
Transportation
                      Current Reliance on a Single Feedstock
                                    TRANSPORTATION                                                                       ELECTRICITY




                                      OTHER

 o
                                                                                                                                  LIQUIDS
                                       5%                                                                                            6%


                                                                                                      RENEWABLES
                                                                                                         18%                                      NUCLEAR
                                                                                                                                                    15%
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT


                                                                                                                                                     GAS
                                                                                                                                                     20%
                                        CRUDE OIL
                                          95%                                                                 COAL
                                                                                                              41%




                                                          OIL PROVIDES 95% OF TRANSPORT FUEL NEEDS
                                                           (VS. ELECTRICITY WHICH IS WELL DIVERSIFIED)


                           Source: IEA World Energy Outlook                                      Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration



     PROPRIETARY
18   & CONFIDENTIAL
Transportation
                           75% of New Oil Demand

                           Incremental Oil Demand by sector 2006 - 2030
                           Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008



                      Mtoe 800


 o                         600

INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
                           400
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT


                           200



                               0



                          -200

                                               TRANSPORT            INDUSTRY     NON-ENERGY USE          OTHER*


                                       *INCLUDES RESIDENTIAL, SERVICES, AGRICULTURE, POWER GENERATION AND OTHER SECTORS.




     PROPRIETARY
19   & CONFIDENTIAL
Transportation
                      As Global Demand for Vehicles is Accelerating

                      Worldwide Number of Cars (Millions)
                      Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008




                      1500

 o
                      1125
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT
                       750




                       375




                         0
                                                  1968         1985   2007   2020




     PROPRIETARY
20   & CONFIDENTIAL
Transportation
                      ...and Oil Growth

                      Growth from Asia & Middle East
                      Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008




 o
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




                                                               (mb/d)




     PROPRIETARY
21   & CONFIDENTIAL
Opportunity
                      Spectrum of Potential Investments



 o                                Upstream:                            Downstream:
                                Fuel Resources                           Vehicles
                              ----------------------                ----------------------
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION                     Plantation                          Components
OPPORTUNITY                                                            Technology
                                  Processing
CONTACT
                                Fuel generation                          Design
                                                          FUEL
                                  Distribution                        Manufacturing /
                                                       EFFICIENCY
                                                                        Conversion
                                                                       Distribution




                                                       Fuel Type
                                                  ----------------------

                                            Carbon Neutral    Synthetic Fuels
                                             ‣ Biodiesel      Hydrogen
                                             ‣ Bioethanol     Electricity
                                             ‣ Biogas



     PROPRIETARY
22   & CONFIDENTIAL
Opportunity
                      New Propulsion Technologies
                      & Alternative Fuels


 o
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




                      Source: Deutsche Bank, Company estimates.




     PROPRIETARY
23   & CONFIDENTIAL
Opportunity
                      Growth in Biofuel Mandates & Production



 o
INTRODUCTION
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY
CONTACT




     PROPRIETARY
24   & CONFIDENTIAL   Source: REN21, Renewables 2009 Global Status Report.
Opportunity
                      China Leading with Electric
                                                                                                                       27.5

                          Automotive sales in China
                        SOURCE: CAMBRIDGE ENERGY RESEARCH ASSOCIATES.

                                                                                                   Sales of electric
                                                                                                  two-wheelers in

 o
                                                                                                    China recently
                                                                                                 surpassed gasoline
                                                                                                      powered
                                                                                                    two-wheelers.
                                                                             China is the
INTRODUCTION
                                                 18
                                                                            world’s leading
                      VEHICLES/YEAR (MILLIONS)




THE CRISIS
                                                                              producer
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY                                                                   of electric
                                                 16
CONTACT                                                                     two-wheelers.

                                                 14


                                                 12
                                                                          GASOLINE TWO-
                                                                            WHEELERS 32
                                                 10


                                                  8


                                                                                      ELECTRIC TWO-                    6.5
                                                  6                                     WHEELERS


                                                  4


                                                  2                     LIGHT DUTY
                                                                          VEHICLE

                                                  0
     PROPRIETARY
25   & CONFIDENTIAL                               1990           1995         2000                    2005                   2010
Contact us


                      Asia Cleantech Capital Pte Ltd
                      6 Eu Tong Sen Street, #07-06
                      The Central, Soho One
                      Singapore 059817
 o                    T: (65) 6227 5940
                      F: (65) 6227 5945
INTRODUCTION          W: www.asiacleantech.com
THE CRISIS
TRANSPORTATION
OPPORTUNITY           Ron Mahabir, Managing Director
CONTACT
                      ron@asiacleantech.com




     PROPRIETARY
26   & CONFIDENTIAL

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Peak Oil & The Clean Transportation Opportunity

  • 1. o INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT The Clean Transport Opportunity ASIA CLEANTECH CAPITAL PROPRIETARY 1 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 2. Introduction Size of the Opportunity o INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT Source: IEA, EIA, company. SOURCE: IEA, EIA, SIMMONS INTERNATIONAL, COMPANY ESTIMATES. PROPRIETARY 2 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 3. Introduction Crisis Oil production likely peaked in May, 2005 *SIMMONS Majority of remaining reserves are controlled by historically unstable regimes o The financial crisis and low oil prices have curbed investment The oil workforce and infrastructure is rusting INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS Oil is the single feedstock for 95% of transportation TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT PROPRIETARY 3 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 4. Introduction Opportunity Oil is temporarily mispriced as prices are based on short-term supply/demand. The markets are missing the medium and longer term supply shortages. o $50-60 oil is Demand growth After recent price shock, very cheap governments from China, India, (below cost of are seeking and ME is massive INTRODUCTION future supply) energy diversity THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION and security OPPORTUNITY CONTACT Investment Global mandates community is Disruptive for reduced starting to technology is emissions and appreciate quickly emerging alternative fuels “peak oil” PROPRIETARY 4 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 5. Introduction Window of Opportunistic Investments In the next 3-5 years, we will likely experience much higher and volatile oil prices. Transportation provides the single most compelling investment opportunity. o A transformation is occurring in electric vehicles, next generation biofuels, hydrogen, and fuel efficiency. We see an opportunistic focus in: INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS ‣ New fuel resources ‣ Vehicles TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT ‣ Fuel efficiency PROPRIETARY 5 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 6. The Crisis We are out of cheap oil 160 140 Remaining oil reserves are largely o 120 offshore, tar sands, and oil shale all of which are feasible 100 at US$80+ INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION 80 OPPORTUNITY CONTACT 60 40 20 0 02 2 3 3 04 4 05 6 06 07 7 08 09 X 0 00 00 00 00 0 00 20 0 00 20 20 X -2 -2 r-2 t-2 -2 0 -2 l-2 2 -2 -2 - - 20 an g a c ay ec Ju b- p- pr ov un an J Au M O M D Fe Se A N J J "Current oil prices don’t take into account the medium and longer term supply shortages and increasing cost of future production.“ PROPRIETARY Source: NYMEX. 6 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 7. The Crisis The Oil Age World Crude Oil Production, 1960 - 2007 Source: Simmons International. mb/d 140 o 105 It is likely INTRODUCTION that we reached THE CRISIS peak production TRANSPORTATION in May 2005 OPPORTUNITY 70 CONTACT (Simmons) 35 2005 0 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2007 "The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion.“ -- Colin Campbell PROPRIETARY 7 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 8. The Crisis Rapid Fall Off in Production 120 MILLION BARRELS/DAY 100 o 80 INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS 60 TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT We should be investing 40 massively in E&P! 20 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 CRUDE OIL - FIELDS YET CRUDE OIL - FIELDS YET CRUDE OIL - CURRENTLY TO BE FOUND TO BE DEVELOPED PRODUCING FIELDS SOURCE: IHS, DELOITTE, USGS DATABASE, IEA, SIMMONS INTERNATIONAL. PROPRIETARY 8 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 9. The Crisis Despite High Oil Prices, Output Flat Countries with Increasing Production vs. Rest of World Decline Source: Simmons International. o INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT Despite high oil prices and an increase in E&P spending from US$100 billion to $400 billion (2000 to 2006), oil production has remained flat. *Recently have also fallen into decline. PROPRIETARY 9 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 10. The Crisis Energy security Proved reserves at end of 2007 (Billions of barrels) Source: Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 o INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT PROPRIETARY 10 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 11. The Crisis Consumption is patently unsustainable Top Consuming Countries, 1960 - 2006 Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec11_20.pdf 24 o MILLION BARRELS/DAY UNITED STATES INTRODUCTION 18 THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT 12 FORMER U.S.S.R. 6 JAPAN RUSSIA CHINA INDIA 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR PROPRIETARY 11 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 12. The Crisis Decline Rates in the Gulf of Mexico 16 100 60 60 10 14 50 50 12 80 40 8 10 60 40 6 8 30 30 6 40 20 20 4 4 20 10 2 2 Amberjack Auger 10 Baldpate Brutus Cognac 0 0 0 0 0 o D D D D D 98 00 02 04 08 6 98 02 04 08 6 20 8 00 02 04 06 20 8 00 02 04 06 98 00 02 04 08 6 00 20 200 20 200 20 200 9 9 YT YT YT YT YT 19 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 08 08 50 100 40 60 300 40 80 50 250 30 30 40 200 INTRODUCTION 60 20 40 20 30 150 THE CRISIS Horn Llano 20 100 10 20 Mtn/King 10 10 50 TRANSPORTATION Hoover (GB 387) Lobster/Oyster Mars-Ursa OPPORTUNITY 0 0 0 0 0 CONTACT D D D 08 6 D D 98 00 02 04 08 6 98 00 02 04 98 00 02 04 08 6 20 8 00 02 04 08 6 20 8 20 0 02 20 4 08 06 20 200 20 200 20 200 9 20 200 9 0 0 YT YT YT YT YT 19 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 20 20 19 20 20 50 35 30 30 60 45 30 25 25 50 40 25 35 20 20 40 30 20 25 15 15 15 30 20 10 Nansen 10 Neptune 10 20 15 Ram-Powell 5 10 5 (EB 602) (VK 825) 5 10 Pompano 5 (VK 956) 0 Phoenix 0 0 0 0 D D D D 02 04 08 6 08 6 04 08 6 D 98 00 98 00 02 04 98 00 02 20 8 00 02 04 06 98 00 02 04 08 6 20 200 20 0 20 200 9 20 200 YT YT YT YT YT 20 20 20 19 20 19 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 08 Select Gulf of Mexico oil fields. Cantarell, one of the world’s largest deepwater oil fields peaked in 2004, with collapsing production. Source: Simmons International. PROPRIETARY 12 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 13. The Crisis Rise of Resource Nationalism Independents (such as BP, o ExxonMobil) own or have access to less than 10% of world oil resources. RECENT EXAMPLES INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY Russia shutting off of natural gas supply to CONTACT Ukraine and Europe 65% of reserves are ---------------------- held by state-owned Venezuela’s nationalization of international oil companies, mostly in major projects MENA. ---------------------- Indonesia cutting back on energy exports, threatening to seize Natuna from ExxonMobil ---------------------- Remainder is located China developing Iranian oil field against in countries such as international sanctions Venezuela and Russia where access is difficult. PROPRIETARY 13 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 14. The Crisis Financial Crisis has Hit New Investment Source: Energy Current: “Global E&P Expenditures” Wall Street Journal o North America US: -26% 2009 E&P BUDGETS DOWN 12% Canada: -23% INTRODUCTION FIRST DECLINE IN 9 YEARS THE CRISIS (LARGE CUTS) TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY ---------------------- CONTACT Estimated 85% of new refining capacity has been canceled or postponed. Unless oil prices are higher than an estimated $80, deep water Russia drilling, oil shale, and tar sands are not viable Lukoil: -50% Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, TNK: -20% to -26% Middle East / Asia Pacific Mixed results (both increases & decreases) PROPRIETARY 14 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 15. The Crisis Rusting of industry Worldwide energy infrastructure is too old Labor force is graying and retiring o Past 4 months alone, 40,000 industry hires were fired (likely more than all hires 2006 - 2008) Average age of US pipeline is 80 years INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY 80% of rigs must be replaced CONTACT Source: Simmons International. PROPRIETARY 15 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 16. The Crisis No end to Emissions 30,000 MTONS/YEAR CARBON EMISSIONS FROM GAS FLARING 25,000 CARBON EMISSIONS FROM SOLID FUEL o CONSUMPTION Massive CARBON EMISSIONS FROM LIQUID FUEL increase in global CONSUMPTION 20,000 emissions post CARBON EMISSIONS FROM GAS FUEL industrialization. INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS CONSUMPTION TRANSPORTATION 15,000 OPPORTUNITY CONTACT Transportation is a major contributor 10,000 to climate change. 5,000 0 51 58 65 72 79 86 93 00 07 14 33 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 05 12 19 26 40 47 54 61 68 75 82 89 96 03 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 YEAR Source: Deutsche Bank PROPRIETARY 16 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 17. Transportation History of Transport Fuels CARBON NEUTRAL CARBON TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION DEMAND o Key Drivers Declining fossil fuel supplies INTRODUCTION Fuel supply security and THE CRISIS diversification TRANSPORTATION Global emissions OPPORTUNITY Governmental regulations CONTACT TODAY TIME Natural Fuel Fossil Fuel New Fuel Wind Oil Carbon neutral fuels Horsepower Gas Electricity (renewable) 17 PROPRIETARY Coal Synthetic fuels & CONFIDENTIAL Hydrogen
  • 18. Transportation Current Reliance on a Single Feedstock TRANSPORTATION ELECTRICITY OTHER o LIQUIDS 5% 6% RENEWABLES 18% NUCLEAR 15% INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT GAS 20% CRUDE OIL 95% COAL 41% OIL PROVIDES 95% OF TRANSPORT FUEL NEEDS (VS. ELECTRICITY WHICH IS WELL DIVERSIFIED) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration PROPRIETARY 18 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 19. Transportation 75% of New Oil Demand Incremental Oil Demand by sector 2006 - 2030 Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 Mtoe 800 o 600 INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS 400 TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT 200 0 -200 TRANSPORT INDUSTRY NON-ENERGY USE OTHER* *INCLUDES RESIDENTIAL, SERVICES, AGRICULTURE, POWER GENERATION AND OTHER SECTORS. PROPRIETARY 19 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 20. Transportation As Global Demand for Vehicles is Accelerating Worldwide Number of Cars (Millions) Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 1500 o 1125 INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT 750 375 0 1968 1985 2007 2020 PROPRIETARY 20 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 21. Transportation ...and Oil Growth Growth from Asia & Middle East Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 o INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT (mb/d) PROPRIETARY 21 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 22. Opportunity Spectrum of Potential Investments o Upstream: Downstream: Fuel Resources Vehicles ---------------------- ---------------------- INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION Plantation Components OPPORTUNITY Technology Processing CONTACT Fuel generation Design FUEL Distribution Manufacturing / EFFICIENCY Conversion Distribution Fuel Type ---------------------- Carbon Neutral Synthetic Fuels ‣ Biodiesel Hydrogen ‣ Bioethanol Electricity ‣ Biogas PROPRIETARY 22 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 23. Opportunity New Propulsion Technologies & Alternative Fuels o INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT Source: Deutsche Bank, Company estimates. PROPRIETARY 23 & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 24. Opportunity Growth in Biofuel Mandates & Production o INTRODUCTION THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY CONTACT PROPRIETARY 24 & CONFIDENTIAL Source: REN21, Renewables 2009 Global Status Report.
  • 25. Opportunity China Leading with Electric 27.5 Automotive sales in China SOURCE: CAMBRIDGE ENERGY RESEARCH ASSOCIATES. Sales of electric two-wheelers in o China recently surpassed gasoline powered two-wheelers. China is the INTRODUCTION 18 world’s leading VEHICLES/YEAR (MILLIONS) THE CRISIS producer TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY of electric 16 CONTACT two-wheelers. 14 12 GASOLINE TWO- WHEELERS 32 10 8 ELECTRIC TWO- 6.5 6 WHEELERS 4 2 LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE 0 PROPRIETARY 25 & CONFIDENTIAL 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 26. Contact us Asia Cleantech Capital Pte Ltd 6 Eu Tong Sen Street, #07-06 The Central, Soho One Singapore 059817 o T: (65) 6227 5940 F: (65) 6227 5945 INTRODUCTION W: www.asiacleantech.com THE CRISIS TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITY Ron Mahabir, Managing Director CONTACT ron@asiacleantech.com PROPRIETARY 26 & CONFIDENTIAL