Forecasting Products

Jefferson Rhoads – International Power America – 2010 to 2011

Daily Forecast Summary

Maps and Discussion

Maps Valid:
Thursday, January 06, 2011

Discussion

New England will be partly clear today and temperatures will be near seasonal levels. High temperatures for the
next several days will generally be in the low to mid 30's and overnight lows will be in the 20's near the coast and
drop into the teens for inland areas. Cloud cover and the chance for snow showers will increase on Friday and
linger for much of the weekend across the region. As a storm departs the region by the end of the weekend
temperatures will be slightly below average and increasing winds will result in cold wind chills across much of the
region into next week.

1/6/2011


Date Thursday, January 06, 2011

Location Boston, MA

Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Forecast Temperatures 32 24 36 25 33 26 33 23 35 22 35 25 35 24
Forecast Dewpoint 16 24 20 13 15 21 20
Forecast Min Windchill 20 19 18 10 12 15 10
vs. Prior Temp Forecast -2 0 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 0 1

Climatology Temps 37 23 37 23 37 23 37 23 37 23 37 23 37 23
Forecast vs. Climo -5 1 -1 2 -4 3 -4 0 -2 -1 -2 2 -2 1


Location Hartford, CT

vs. Prior Temp Forecast -1 -3 0 -3 -1 -4 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -1

Forecast vs. Climo -5 -3 -3 -1 -5 0 -4 -1 -4 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1


Location New York, NY

vs. Prior Temp Forecast 1 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0

Forecast vs. Climo -3 1 -5 3 -7 -1 -5 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 -4 2

1/6/2011


Maps and Discussion

Maps Valid:
Discussion

Mostly cloudy conditions will impact much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest today and temperatures will drop
to slightly below average levels for most of the region. Highs along the Mid-Atlantic coast will be near 40
degrees today with highs in the low 30's inland, and highs in the upper 20's in the Chicago area. The region will
continue to cool on Friday and into the weekend with temperatures dropping to several degrees below
average. Inland areas from Pittsburgh to Chicago will see very cold wind chills this weekend, with subzero
wind chills possible at times overnight. Colder than average temperatures continue into next week for most
areas.

1/6/2011



Location Philadelphia, PA

vs. Prior Temp Forecast 1 1 1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 1 1

Forecast vs. Climo -3 0 -5 0 -8 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 -4 1


Location Pittsburgh, PA

vs. Prior Temp Forecast -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0

Forecast vs. Climo -5 -3 -11 -3 -13 -7 -8 -4 -5 -3 -7 -1 -8 -2


Location Washington, DC

vs. Prior Temp Forecast -2 2 1 -1 0 3 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

Forecast vs. Climo -3 -1 -6 -1 -8 -4 -6 -5 -6 -4 -7 -3 -6 -2


Location Chicago, IL

Forecast Min Windchill 1 -4 -3 2 5 4 -1
vs. Prior Temp Forecast 2 2 2 1 2 0 0 1 0 2 1 3

Forecast vs. Climo -6 0 -11 -8 -9 -8 -6 -4 -5 -1 -6 -2 -8 -4

1/6/2011


Maps and Discussion

Maps Valid:

Discussion

Conditions will be mostly sunny across Texas today and temperatures in the metro areas will be slightly
warmer than average. High temperatures will range from the mid 60's in Dallas to near 70 degrees in Houston
and San Antonio. Temperatures will remain above average to finish the week before rain and clouds begin to
move into the metro areas for the weekend. Temperatures will begin to trend downwards in Dallas on Sunday
and colder than average temperatures will be seen in all of the metro areas by Monday. Cold temperatures and
below freezing wind chills are expected across East Texas through midweek.

1/6/2011



Location Dallas, TX

Forecast Min Windchill 27 19 19
vs. Prior Temp Forecast 3 2 3 0 1 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 2 1

Forecast vs. Climo 7 0 10 1 0 1 -9 0 -14 -6 -18 -11 -21 -14


Location Houston, TX

Forecast Min Windchill 26
vs. Prior Temp Forecast 2 2 1 -2 0 2 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0

Forecast vs. Climo 5 3 8 1 3 7 -3 2 -8 -6 -13 -10 -16 -12


Location San Antonio, TX

Forecast Min Windchill 23
vs. Prior Temp Forecast -1 -1 2 1 -2 1 1 2 4 -3 -1 1

Forecast vs. Climo 6 -2 11 -1 0 5 3 5 -3 -5 -16 -9 -21 -13

1/6/2011


Maps Valid:
Abilene, TX
1am 4am 7am 10am1pm 4pm 7pm
GFS - - 3 2 6 8 6 mph
ETA - - 5 5 6 5 2 mph

Discussion

Winds across West Texas this morning are light with speeds in the single digits. Winds speeds will remain very
light today with speeds in the single digits throughout the day. Winds across West Texas will remain light on
Friday before seeing some slight increases to the low teens over the weekend.

Southern Ontario will see winds light winds today with speeds in the low teens. Wind speeds will fluctuate
over the next several days with breezy conditions and speeds in the teens on Friday and light winds on
Saturday before speeds increase to near 20 mph by Sunday.

1/6/2011

Current Weather Conditions

Date Friday, January 07, 2011 1:36 PM
This is a mid-day update (EST). Actual
Location Boston, MA Hartford, CT New York, NY high temperatures typically occur in
Current Current Current the mid-afternoon (3-4pm local).
Forecast Forecast Forecast
Conditions Conditions Conditions
Temperature 33 33 30 31 37 35
Dewpoint 25 24 22 18 20 30
Heat Index

Climatology High This line indicates how much
37 36 40
Temperature the forecast high is leading
Temps vs. Climo -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -5
or lagging the current high.
Forecast v. Current 0 1 -2

Location Philadelphia, PA Pittsburgh, PA Washington, DC Chicago, IL
Current Current Current Current
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Conditions Conditions Conditions Conditions
Temperature 37 32 25 23 38 34 22 19
Dewpoint 15 18 16 7 20 10 11 8
Heat Index

Climatology High
41 37 44 33
Temperature
Temps vs. Climo -4 -9 -12 -14 -6 -10 -11 -14
Forecast v. Current -5 -2 -4 -3

Location Dallas, TX Houston, TX San Antonio, TX
Current Current Current
Forecast Forecast Forecast
Conditions Conditions Conditions
Temperature 66 60 71 67 73 66
Dewpoint 34 28 44 38 35 42
Heat Index

Climatology High
56 63 63
Temperature
Temps vs. Climo 10 4 8 4 10 3
Forecast v. Current -6 -4 -7

1

Current Weather Conditions

Southern portions of Connecticut and New York are seeing locally heavy snow this afternoon while the majority of the region is seeing no snow and
mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures have already warmed to forecast levels in Boston and Hartford and may add another 2 degrees this afternoon,
reaching high temperatures in the low to mid 30's. New York will reach temperatures close to forecast levels in the mid 30's.

The Mid-Atlantic is cloud covered today with a slight chance for a snow shower this afternoon. Temperatures are cooler than forecast for the metro areas
currently, with Philadelphia and Washington in the low to mid 30's. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the mid 30's across the region. West towards
Pittsburgh temperatures are much colder, with a high expected near 25 degrees this afternoon. Chicago is partly sunny and will see well below average
temperatures today with a high in the low 20's.

Temperatures across Texas have warmed to above seasonal levels and will continue to warm this afternoon. Current temperatures range from near 60 in
Dallas to the mid 60's in Houston and San Antonio. Conditions are mostly sunny across the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid 60's
in Dallas and the low 70's for Houston and San Antonio.
Winds in West Texas are currently very light with speeds in the low single digits. Winds are expected to increase slightly this afternoon with speeds in the
upper single digits to near 10 mph.

The comparison of the GFS 00z to 12z runs shows some variability between runs especially for the New England and Texas regions. Texas continues to
trend cooler in the near term with temperatures falling to well below seasonal levels this weekend and into next week. The 12z run is bringing warmth
back into the region by midweek and warms temperatures back to seasonal levels by the end of next week. In New England the 12z warms temperatures
next week, bringing temperatures closer to seasonal levels for much of the forecast period. The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic don't show significant changes
in the 12z run, with generally below to much below average temperatures this weekend and into next week.

2

Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan.
Jan. 7 ...
11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Agreement on below Some minor
C
P
average temperatures disagreement on
C
from the Northern Plains location of the coldest
to the Southeast with temperatures across the
O seasonal temperatures for Plains and Southeast.
u portions of the West Coast
t and New England.
l
o
o
k Run to run consistency is moderate.

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W S
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Jan. 7 ... Jan. 16 Jan. 17 Jan. 18 Jan. 19 Jan. 20 Jan. 21 Jan. 22

Agreement on below average Some disagreement on
temperatures for the Northern the coldest air shifting
Plains and Midwest and warmer to the East and
than average temperatures for Southeast.
portions of the West Coast. Run to run consistency is average.

E
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