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Commercial Real Estate Market Watch for Toronto: September 2012
1. For All Media/Public Inquiries: For All TREB Member Inquiries:
(416) 443-8158 (416) 443-8152 Third Quarter 2012
Economic Indicators Almost 3.5 Million Square Feet Leased in Q3 2012 TorontoMLS
Real GDP Growth
1
TORONTO, October 3, 2012 — Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) All Leasing Activity*
Q2 2012 t 1.8% Commercial Division Members reported lease transactions accounting for (Sq. Ft.)
almost 3.5 million square feet of industrial, commercial/retail and office
Toronto Employment Growth2 space during the Third Quarter of 2012. This result was down from slightly
August 2012 t 1.6% more than 3.7 million square feet leased in the Third Quarter of 2011.
3,728,892
Toronto Unemployment Rate The year-over-year change in average lease rates was mixed. Based on
3,481,452
August 2012 u 8.5% transactions for which pricing was disclosed, the average industrial lease
rate was up compared to last year whereas average commercial/retail and
Inflation (Yr./Yr. CPI Growth)2 office lease rates were down.
August 2012 u 1.2% “The industrial market segment accounted for almost three-quarters of total
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate 3 leased space in the Third Quarter. Average lease rates were up for all
industrial size categories reported by TREB. If growth in average industrial
September 2012 q 1.0% Third Quarter 2012 Third Quarter 2011
lease rates continues in the Fourth Quarter and into 2013, it would suggest
* NOTE: This chart summarizes total industrial,
Prime Rate
4 that market conditions are tightening with industrial firms in southern commercial/retail and office square feet leased through
TorontoMLS regardless of pricing terms.
Ontario more confident about future growth,” said TREB Commercial
September 2012 q 3.0%
Division Chair Cynthia Lai.
GoC Yield Curve (Sept. 2012)4 Commercial Division Members reported 214 combined commercial sales in
3 Month T-Bill t 0.99% the Third Quarter – down 18 per cent from 262 sales during the same period Total TorontoMLS
6 Month T-Bill u 1.02% in 2011. The average selling price was down for all three categories, but a
comparison of transactions suggests that the decline was more the result of All Sales Activity*
1 Year u 1.09%
a different mix of property types sold this year compared to last, especially
2 Year u 1.09%
in relation to commercial/retail and office space.
3 Year u 1.16%
5 Year u 1.31% “The mix of sold office space shifted towards larger properties in the Third
7 Year u 1.47% Quarter of this year. Generally speaking, larger office properties are
10 Year u 1.75% associated with a lower price per square foot. As a result, when larger
properties account for a greater proportion of total transactions the overall 262
Sources and Notes:
1
average lease rate tends to dip, all else being equal,” said Lai. 214
Statistics Canada, Quarter-over-quarter
growth, annualized. “The dip in the in the average commercial/retail sale price was also driven
2
Statistics Canada, Year-over-year growth by sales of larger properties. Last year the mix and use of larger
for the most recently reported month
commercial/retail properties sold dictated a higher price compared to this
3
Bank of Canada, Rate from most recent year. For transactions in smaller size categories, average selling prices were Third Quarter 2012 Third Quarter 2011
Bank of Canada announcement
4
more comparable between 2012 and 2011,” continued Lai. * NOTE: This chart summarizes total industrial and
Bank of Canada, Rates for most recently commercial/retail sales through TorontoMLS regardless of
completed month pricing terms.
2. TREB Commercial Division
Total TorontoMLS Leasing Activity* TorontoMLS Average Lease Rates ($/Sq.Ft. Net)*
(Millions of Square Feet Leased) Third Quarter 2012 Third Quarter 2011
$25.00
4.0 3.73 $20.37
3.48
$20.00
Millions of Square Feet
3.0 2.76
2.56 Third Quarter 2012 $14.36
$15.00
Third Quarter 2011 $10.79 $10.95
2.0
$10.00
$5.05 $4.74
1.0 0.45 0.49 0.47 0.48 $5.00
0.0 $0.00
Total Industrial Commercial/Retail Office Industrial Commercial/Retail Office
* NOTE: This chart summarizes total industrial, commercial/retail and office square * NOTE: Average lease rates are reported only for those properties sold on a per
feet leased through TorontoMLS regardless of pricing terms. square foot net basis and for which the selling price was disclosed.
Source: TREB, Commercial Division Source: TREB, Commercial Division
Total TorontoMLS Sales Activity* TorontoMLS Average Sale Price ($/Sq. Ft.)*
(Number of Sales)
$250.00 $229.64
300 262 Third Quarter 2012 Third Quarter 2012
$189.70
$200.00
250 214 Third Quarter 2011 Third Quarter 2011
$146.05
200 $150.00
$116.11
150 124
101 94
$100.00 $70.18 $78.29
100 74
39 44 $50.00
50
0 $0.00
Total Industrial Commercial/Retail Office Industrial Commercial/Retail Office
* NOTE: This chart summarizes total industrial and commercial/retail sales through * NOTE: Average sale prices are reported only for those properties for which the
TorontoMLS regardless of pricing terms. selling price was disclosed.
Source: TREB, Commercial Division Source: TREB, Commercial Division
Commercial Realty Watch, Third Quarter 2012 2