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SMITH-TRG




                        2010
      Getting Beyond Turbulent Times
       ‘The Need for U. S. Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines’




                                             By: Richard D. Smith, CEO, SMITH-TRG
                                             Executive Briefing, Washington, D. C.
                                             January 5, 2010
Contents . . .


                 Some ‘Turbulent Times’ Facts


                  2010 Challenges You Face


                 Enterprise Path to Prosperity


                       WHY: Act Now?

SMITH-TRG
some ‘Turbulent Times’ facts
    (a.k.a. inconvenient realities . . .)




                 SMITH-TRG
57% of GDP is Publicly Held Federal Debt
                       Source: Congressional Budget Office


            Peter Orszag, Director,
            Office of Management & Budget (OMB)



SMITH-TRG
SMITH-TRG


                   U. S. Debt is $12.1 Trillion
              Nearly $39,000 for Every U.S. Resident
                                                           a.k.a. the
                                                           DEBT BOMB!
                                                           legacy. . .




Deficit Growth: $162 Billion in 2007, $455 Billion 2008,
 and $1.8 Billion by YE 2009 (was $1.4 Billion in Oct.)
WITHIN A
          DECADE…
       Average American
          Household
          (that pays income taxes)



               Will Owe
              the equivalent of


             $155,000
         In Federal Debt
     (about $90,000 more than last year)

         Source: FORTUNE June 22, 2009



SMITH-TRG
$39,446 is Average American’s Income

  As of October 2009, the average American’s annual
 income was up only 5.3% in inflation-adjusted terms
 from the end of the 1980s. That's the slowest growth
           registered in at least six decades.
                  Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis




                          SMITH-TRG
SMITH-TRG


       26.5 Million or 17.3%
of Americans are Jobless or Underemployed
   U.S. Population grew by 35 million from 1999 to 2009,
   while the economy gained virtually no jobs. Employed
   people: 1999 – 130,532,000 vs. 2009 – 130,996,000
1 in 5 People. . .
    are Either Unemployed, Involuntarily Working Part-Time
                   or “Marginally Attached“
The government's broadest measure of labor
underutilization (known as the U6) has more             The number of people involuntarily
   than doubled in the two years since the               working part-time jobs has more
 recession began to 17.5%, and it is up from          than doubled to 9.3 million the highest
             12% just a year ago.                              number on record.
            Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics




  SMITH-TRG
10% U.S. Unemployment                Career Day

On Track to Hit 11+% in Q1, 2010




                                   SMITH-TRG
SMITH-TRG


                   19.1 % up from 10.7%
          Construction Industry’s Unemployment Rate


 The transportation and material-
moving sectors saw unemployment
 rise to 11.6% from 7.9% over the
            same period.
SMITH-TRG


        Projected 9.4 Million
Private-Sector Jobs Deficit by Year End 2009
Currently, 25 states have
                                     run out of unemployment
                                     money and have borrowed
                                     $24 billion from the federal
                                     government to cover the
                                     gaps.




      The nation's jobless toll is draining unemployment-
      compensation funds so fast that, according to federal
      projections, 40 state programs will go broke by 2011
      and need $90 billion in loans to keep issuing benefits.


SMITH-TRG
THE BIGGEST
     LOSERS: States




 Job losses are causing income losses, which in turn are
   constraining private demand, reducing tax revenues
               and causing higher deficits.

SMITH-TRG
SMITH-TRG




2010 Challenges You Face



            We’re Almost
          Running On Empty!
SMITH-TRG


        New Year Assessment
              Data Source: Office of Management & Budget




I.   Even with a strong recovery, annual deficits will
     average about 5% of GDP over the next decade, and
     total debt will climb to nearly 77% of GDP, its highest
     level since 1952.

II. Persistent deficits of this size will put upward pressure
    on long-term interest rates, crowding out investment
    and stunting long-term growth. Interest payments on
    the debt will be onerous - by 2019 they will exceed
    defense spending.

III. Investor anxiety about the huge borrowing needs of
     the U.S. government could trigger a sharp decline in the
     dollar and another crisis in global financial markets.
3 Key Challenges

  Jobless Growth

  Paying Nations’ Bills

  Jobs Creation

       SMITH-TRG
2010, Must
  Be About Jobs . . .

       WHY?
 Every 1 Million New Jobs
    Puts $50 Billion into
Nations Economic Gas Tank!


          SMITH-TRG
SMITH-TRG


Economic Impact of Deferred Jobs Creation

                                                              Fill 10
 Each month delay in creating and
                                                              Million
 filling 1 million U.S. jobs defers                            Jobs
 $50 Billion in annual national
 economic benefit/value.            Fill 5
                                    Million           $500 Billion Value
                                     Jobs
           Fill 2
          Million           $250 Billion Value
           Jobs                                  Employing 8 million of 16
                                                 million unemployed would
                                                 add $400 Billion to national
  $100 Billion Value
                                                 economy.
Your Biggest   “Even if the nation could add 2.15
                 million private-sector jobs per year
   Challenge     starting in January 2010, it would
                 need to maintain this pace for
                 more than 7 straight years (7.63
                 years), or until August 2017, to
                 eliminate the jobs deficit!”
                           - Advance & Rutgers Report, Sept. 09
                            By James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca
                            Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning
                            & Public Policy




SMITH-TRG
Remember. . .

       7 years (2010 to 2017)
     just to recover 9.4 million
   lost jobs (a.k.a. jobs deficit.)

                 +
    Nation still needs to create
   100,000 additional net new
   jobs per month (1.2 Mil. Yr.,
     2010 to 2017) to support
        workforce growth.

SMITH-TRG
Need Jobs Beginning January 1st, 2010
                (‘Net New’ Job Needs Per Month/Every Month)


   200,000 new jobs monthly: to reduce ‘jobs deficit’

   100,000 new jobs monthly: for ‘workforce’ growth

            YE 2010 Total: 3,600,000 ‘Net New’ Jobs

               $180 Billion – National Value


SMITH-TRG
Enterprise Path to Prosperity
   (FUTURE-WORLD opportunities. . .)




               SMITH-TRG
Position for FUTURE-WORLD Commerce




                               SMITH-TRG




Build 21ST Century Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines
             C R E A T E ‘S U S T A I N A B L E’ U. S. J O B S!
BE TRANSFORMATIVE


            “Now is the time for America to do
             a business growth paradigm shift.
             A transformative rethink of how it
            designs, finances, builds and grows
               market competitive U.S. based
                        businesses.”



SMITH-TRG
GLOBALIZATION
      ACCEPT GLOBALIZATION

          “A new world order is dawning – one
        in which the West is no longer dominant,
        capitalism (at least the American version)
            is out of favor, and protectionism
                       is on the rise.”
                    - Roger Altman
                      Former Deputy Treasury Sec., Clinton Administration



SMITH-TRG
EMBRACE INNOVATION
 BUSINESS MODEL             “Innovation has become
 INNOVATION
                            the new currency of global
 PRODUCT/SERVICE         competition as one country after
 INNOVATION              another races toward a new high
                          ground where the capacity for
 PROCESS INNOVATION
                             innovation is viewed as a
 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
                          hallmark of national success.”
                                  - John Kao, quotes
                                  Author, INNOVATION NATION, 2007



SMITH-TRG
ARTICULATE VISION
             (photos of visionary CEO’s from across industry sectors)


SMITH-TRG
SMITH-TRG


F O C U S O N ‘FUTURE-WORLD’ N E E D S

     Customer Centricity.
     Performance Improvement.
     Innovation.
     Value Creation.
UNDERSTAND FANATICISM

        “I think fanaticism is underrated.
        I’m a fanatic about the engineering
        groups. Steve (Jobs) is a fanatic
        about the user experience and
        the design.”
                                  - Bill Gates, Microsoft
     Advice for entrepreneurs, enterprise game changers




SMITH-TRG
B E E N T R EP R E N E U R I A L
  (photos of entrepreneurs who drive change and create value in diverse market sectors)




SMITH-TRG
A S S E S S E ME R G I N G M A R K E T S
SMITH-TRG
8         Emerging Market Opportunities
                    (in no particular order)

SMITH-TRG
                   1) Modular Kitchens:
                 Think college dorm rooms, worker
                     housing, disaster recovery
                  lodging, NYC apartments, etc…
8         Opportunities continued . . .
                       (in no particular order)

SMITH-TRG
                     2 & 3) Flexible Screen
                    Technologies & Roll-up
                     Laptop (closed/open)
                      Digital-Media applications of
                      technology, lines-of-business
                          segments unlimited…
8         Opportunities continued . . .
                         (in no particular order)

SMITH-TRG
                4 & 5) Cyber Security & Intranets.
              Gartner Research estimates that about 15 percent of
              all small businesses suffered a hack attack in 2008.
              NATO Chief of Cyber Defense:
              “Cyber terrorism poses as great a threat to national
              security as a missile attack. In 2008, the Department
              of Defense suffered an estimated 80,000 network
              attacks. On government networks alone, a new
              software vulnerability is exploited every 82 minutes.”
              The financial and economic impact of a one day
              cyber sabotage effort that disrupts US credit and
              debit card transactions is estimated at being about
              $35 billion USD.
8         Opportunities continued . . .
                         (in no particular order)

SMITH-TRG
              6) Cyber Secure Digital-Media Cities,
              Eco Future-World New & Upgraded
               Multi-Purpose Population Centers
              Capital intensive ($5 to $45 Bil.) strategic long-term
              investments – energy efficient digital-enabled life.
8         Opportunities continued . . .
                        (in no particular order)

SMITH-TRG
                      7) Health Care Solutions
              Technology enabled health care treatment solutions
              forecasted by some to be $2 Trillion U.S. market.
8         Opportunities continued . . .
                        (in no particular order)

SMITH-TRG
                8) Wireless Application Solutions
                 Think beyond Apple’s iPhone, Google
                 smartphones, Nokia, Samsung and others.
                 Think about Tablets, in-car systems, multi-
                 touch flex-screens – all part of digital media
                 future-world.
                    “The greatest value creation opportunity
                    will fall to those who give the end-user
                    consumer what they want…really, really
                    want. And that is: an integrated, easy to
                    use, video media experience, anytime,
                    anywhere, and on any platform.”
                                         - Richard D. Smith, SMITH-TRG
                                           Author, AD-MIRED, 2006, book quote
SMITH-TRG



                             Mobile APPs continued . . .

– 2008 - 1.19 Billion Mobile Phones                       “What you carry on your belt
  Sold World-wide. 155 Million (13%)
  were Smartphones
                                                            is now your MP3 player, will
                                                            be your plasma TV, is your
–
        WHY MOBILE APPLICATIONS?
    By 2013 20% or 280 Million (SP’s)                       social networking machine,
                                                            is your Internet terminal,
–   Apple: 100,000 APP’s vs. RIM’s: 2,000Billion 2008 to $25 Billion 2014
            Market Forecast: From $7
                                  Sources: Juniper Research & IDC
    APP’s                                                   your camera, your personal
                                                            navigation device.”
– Others: Google, Sprint’s Palm,
  Motorola – 2 new devices, then                                 - Jim Basillie
  Nokia, Samsung, and host of new                                Co-CEO, Research-in-Motion
  entrants. . .
show me
the money!
    SMITH-TRG
SMITH-TRG



   New Enterprise Associates (Large VC)

Just Closed 13th Fund
     Raised nearly
    $2.5 Billion
Core Investment Areas
 Information Technology
    Energy Technology
       Health Care          Art by: John Kuczala
K E E P: E Y E O N T H E P R I Z E

                      – Every morning in Africa, a
                        gazelle wakes up. It knows
                        that it must run faster than
                        the fastest lion, or IT WILL
                        BE KILLED.

                      – Every morning in Africa, a
                        lion wakes up. It knows that
                        it must outrun the slowest
                        gazelle, or IT WILL STARVE
                        TO DEATH.

                      – In Africa, it doesn’t matter
                        whether you’re a lion or a
                        gazelle. When the SUN
                        COMES UP, YOU’D BETTER
                        BE RUNNING!
SMITH-TRG
WHY: Act Now?


    SMITH-TRG
“The Ultimate Measure
Of A Healthy & Recovering
Economy. . .Jobs Growth!”




                        SMITH-TRG
If Not Now, When?




If Not You, Who?
      SMITH-TRG
Thank You!


RDSmith@SMITH-TRG.com

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2010 Getting Beyond Turbulent Times By Richard D. Smith, Smith Trg

  • 1. SMITH-TRG 2010 Getting Beyond Turbulent Times ‘The Need for U. S. Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines’ By: Richard D. Smith, CEO, SMITH-TRG Executive Briefing, Washington, D. C. January 5, 2010
  • 2. Contents . . . Some ‘Turbulent Times’ Facts 2010 Challenges You Face Enterprise Path to Prosperity WHY: Act Now? SMITH-TRG
  • 3. some ‘Turbulent Times’ facts (a.k.a. inconvenient realities . . .) SMITH-TRG
  • 4. 57% of GDP is Publicly Held Federal Debt Source: Congressional Budget Office Peter Orszag, Director, Office of Management & Budget (OMB) SMITH-TRG
  • 5. SMITH-TRG U. S. Debt is $12.1 Trillion Nearly $39,000 for Every U.S. Resident a.k.a. the DEBT BOMB! legacy. . . Deficit Growth: $162 Billion in 2007, $455 Billion 2008, and $1.8 Billion by YE 2009 (was $1.4 Billion in Oct.)
  • 6. WITHIN A DECADE… Average American Household (that pays income taxes) Will Owe the equivalent of $155,000 In Federal Debt (about $90,000 more than last year) Source: FORTUNE June 22, 2009 SMITH-TRG
  • 7. $39,446 is Average American’s Income As of October 2009, the average American’s annual income was up only 5.3% in inflation-adjusted terms from the end of the 1980s. That's the slowest growth registered in at least six decades. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis SMITH-TRG
  • 8. SMITH-TRG 26.5 Million or 17.3% of Americans are Jobless or Underemployed U.S. Population grew by 35 million from 1999 to 2009, while the economy gained virtually no jobs. Employed people: 1999 – 130,532,000 vs. 2009 – 130,996,000
  • 9. 1 in 5 People. . . are Either Unemployed, Involuntarily Working Part-Time or “Marginally Attached“ The government's broadest measure of labor underutilization (known as the U6) has more The number of people involuntarily than doubled in the two years since the working part-time jobs has more recession began to 17.5%, and it is up from than doubled to 9.3 million the highest 12% just a year ago. number on record. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics SMITH-TRG
  • 10. 10% U.S. Unemployment Career Day On Track to Hit 11+% in Q1, 2010 SMITH-TRG
  • 11. SMITH-TRG 19.1 % up from 10.7% Construction Industry’s Unemployment Rate The transportation and material- moving sectors saw unemployment rise to 11.6% from 7.9% over the same period.
  • 12. SMITH-TRG Projected 9.4 Million Private-Sector Jobs Deficit by Year End 2009
  • 13. Currently, 25 states have run out of unemployment money and have borrowed $24 billion from the federal government to cover the gaps. The nation's jobless toll is draining unemployment- compensation funds so fast that, according to federal projections, 40 state programs will go broke by 2011 and need $90 billion in loans to keep issuing benefits. SMITH-TRG
  • 14. THE BIGGEST LOSERS: States Job losses are causing income losses, which in turn are constraining private demand, reducing tax revenues and causing higher deficits. SMITH-TRG
  • 15. SMITH-TRG 2010 Challenges You Face We’re Almost Running On Empty!
  • 16. SMITH-TRG New Year Assessment Data Source: Office of Management & Budget I. Even with a strong recovery, annual deficits will average about 5% of GDP over the next decade, and total debt will climb to nearly 77% of GDP, its highest level since 1952. II. Persistent deficits of this size will put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, crowding out investment and stunting long-term growth. Interest payments on the debt will be onerous - by 2019 they will exceed defense spending. III. Investor anxiety about the huge borrowing needs of the U.S. government could trigger a sharp decline in the dollar and another crisis in global financial markets.
  • 17. 3 Key Challenges  Jobless Growth  Paying Nations’ Bills  Jobs Creation SMITH-TRG
  • 18. 2010, Must Be About Jobs . . . WHY? Every 1 Million New Jobs Puts $50 Billion into Nations Economic Gas Tank! SMITH-TRG
  • 19. SMITH-TRG Economic Impact of Deferred Jobs Creation Fill 10 Each month delay in creating and Million filling 1 million U.S. jobs defers Jobs $50 Billion in annual national economic benefit/value. Fill 5 Million $500 Billion Value Jobs Fill 2 Million $250 Billion Value Jobs Employing 8 million of 16 million unemployed would add $400 Billion to national $100 Billion Value economy.
  • 20. Your Biggest “Even if the nation could add 2.15 million private-sector jobs per year Challenge starting in January 2010, it would need to maintain this pace for more than 7 straight years (7.63 years), or until August 2017, to eliminate the jobs deficit!” - Advance & Rutgers Report, Sept. 09 By James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy SMITH-TRG
  • 21. Remember. . . 7 years (2010 to 2017) just to recover 9.4 million lost jobs (a.k.a. jobs deficit.) + Nation still needs to create 100,000 additional net new jobs per month (1.2 Mil. Yr., 2010 to 2017) to support workforce growth. SMITH-TRG
  • 22. Need Jobs Beginning January 1st, 2010 (‘Net New’ Job Needs Per Month/Every Month) 200,000 new jobs monthly: to reduce ‘jobs deficit’ 100,000 new jobs monthly: for ‘workforce’ growth YE 2010 Total: 3,600,000 ‘Net New’ Jobs $180 Billion – National Value SMITH-TRG
  • 23. Enterprise Path to Prosperity (FUTURE-WORLD opportunities. . .) SMITH-TRG
  • 24. Position for FUTURE-WORLD Commerce SMITH-TRG Build 21ST Century Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines C R E A T E ‘S U S T A I N A B L E’ U. S. J O B S!
  • 25. BE TRANSFORMATIVE “Now is the time for America to do a business growth paradigm shift. A transformative rethink of how it designs, finances, builds and grows market competitive U.S. based businesses.” SMITH-TRG
  • 26. GLOBALIZATION ACCEPT GLOBALIZATION “A new world order is dawning – one in which the West is no longer dominant, capitalism (at least the American version) is out of favor, and protectionism is on the rise.” - Roger Altman Former Deputy Treasury Sec., Clinton Administration SMITH-TRG
  • 27. EMBRACE INNOVATION BUSINESS MODEL “Innovation has become INNOVATION the new currency of global PRODUCT/SERVICE competition as one country after INNOVATION another races toward a new high ground where the capacity for PROCESS INNOVATION innovation is viewed as a TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION hallmark of national success.” - John Kao, quotes Author, INNOVATION NATION, 2007 SMITH-TRG
  • 28. ARTICULATE VISION (photos of visionary CEO’s from across industry sectors) SMITH-TRG
  • 29. SMITH-TRG F O C U S O N ‘FUTURE-WORLD’ N E E D S  Customer Centricity.  Performance Improvement.  Innovation.  Value Creation.
  • 30. UNDERSTAND FANATICISM “I think fanaticism is underrated. I’m a fanatic about the engineering groups. Steve (Jobs) is a fanatic about the user experience and the design.” - Bill Gates, Microsoft Advice for entrepreneurs, enterprise game changers SMITH-TRG
  • 31. B E E N T R EP R E N E U R I A L (photos of entrepreneurs who drive change and create value in diverse market sectors) SMITH-TRG
  • 32. A S S E S S E ME R G I N G M A R K E T S SMITH-TRG
  • 33. 8 Emerging Market Opportunities (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 1) Modular Kitchens: Think college dorm rooms, worker housing, disaster recovery lodging, NYC apartments, etc…
  • 34. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 2 & 3) Flexible Screen Technologies & Roll-up Laptop (closed/open) Digital-Media applications of technology, lines-of-business segments unlimited…
  • 35. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 4 & 5) Cyber Security & Intranets. Gartner Research estimates that about 15 percent of all small businesses suffered a hack attack in 2008. NATO Chief of Cyber Defense: “Cyber terrorism poses as great a threat to national security as a missile attack. In 2008, the Department of Defense suffered an estimated 80,000 network attacks. On government networks alone, a new software vulnerability is exploited every 82 minutes.” The financial and economic impact of a one day cyber sabotage effort that disrupts US credit and debit card transactions is estimated at being about $35 billion USD.
  • 36. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 6) Cyber Secure Digital-Media Cities, Eco Future-World New & Upgraded Multi-Purpose Population Centers Capital intensive ($5 to $45 Bil.) strategic long-term investments – energy efficient digital-enabled life.
  • 37. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 7) Health Care Solutions Technology enabled health care treatment solutions forecasted by some to be $2 Trillion U.S. market.
  • 38. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 8) Wireless Application Solutions Think beyond Apple’s iPhone, Google smartphones, Nokia, Samsung and others. Think about Tablets, in-car systems, multi- touch flex-screens – all part of digital media future-world. “The greatest value creation opportunity will fall to those who give the end-user consumer what they want…really, really want. And that is: an integrated, easy to use, video media experience, anytime, anywhere, and on any platform.” - Richard D. Smith, SMITH-TRG Author, AD-MIRED, 2006, book quote
  • 39. SMITH-TRG Mobile APPs continued . . . – 2008 - 1.19 Billion Mobile Phones “What you carry on your belt Sold World-wide. 155 Million (13%) were Smartphones is now your MP3 player, will be your plasma TV, is your – WHY MOBILE APPLICATIONS? By 2013 20% or 280 Million (SP’s) social networking machine, is your Internet terminal, – Apple: 100,000 APP’s vs. RIM’s: 2,000Billion 2008 to $25 Billion 2014 Market Forecast: From $7 Sources: Juniper Research & IDC APP’s your camera, your personal navigation device.” – Others: Google, Sprint’s Palm, Motorola – 2 new devices, then - Jim Basillie Nokia, Samsung, and host of new Co-CEO, Research-in-Motion entrants. . .
  • 40. show me the money! SMITH-TRG
  • 41. SMITH-TRG New Enterprise Associates (Large VC) Just Closed 13th Fund Raised nearly $2.5 Billion Core Investment Areas Information Technology Energy Technology Health Care Art by: John Kuczala
  • 42. K E E P: E Y E O N T H E P R I Z E – Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows that it must run faster than the fastest lion, or IT WILL BE KILLED. – Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up. It knows that it must outrun the slowest gazelle, or IT WILL STARVE TO DEATH. – In Africa, it doesn’t matter whether you’re a lion or a gazelle. When the SUN COMES UP, YOU’D BETTER BE RUNNING! SMITH-TRG
  • 43. WHY: Act Now? SMITH-TRG
  • 44. “The Ultimate Measure Of A Healthy & Recovering Economy. . .Jobs Growth!” SMITH-TRG
  • 45. If Not Now, When? If Not You, Who? SMITH-TRG