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ReSAKSS
2011 ATOR, Country SAKSS Progress
      Report, and 2012 Plans

            Sam Benin

     The CAADP 8th PP MEETING
        Hilton Hotel, Nairobi
            3–4 May 2012


                                PARTNERSHIPS
                                IN SUPPORT
                                OF CAADP
Outline

• Agricultural productivity study: feature topic
  of 2011 annual trends and outlook report
  (ATOR): in collaboration with IFPRI’s
  HarvestChoice program


• Progress with establishment/strengthening
  of country SAKSS




                                      PARTNERSHIPS
                                      IN SUPPORT
                                      OF CAADP
Agricultural Productivity Study
• How to raise and maintain high agricultural
  productivity across different parts of Africa?
  – fundamental and conceptual issues on the
    definition and measurement of agricultural
    productivity (temporal and spatial analysis)
  – more sophisticated analysis on understanding
    the determinants and drivers of agricultural
    productivity
  – seemingly-easy, but methodological-
    challenging case analysis of successful and
    failed agricultural productivity programs

                                        PARTNERSHIPS
                                        IN SUPPORT
                                        OF CAADP
Overview of Agricultural Productivity Study:
        Framework and Sequence
                    A. Regional                                       B. Key System
                       Spatial                                        Typologies for
                  Characterization                                       focusing
                   of Agricultural                                 productivity efforts
                    Productivity                                      (e.g. country x
                  Opportunities &                                    farming system)
                    Challenges

                                 Focus Geographies/Systems




        Strategic
    Opportunities for
      Productivity                                D. Case Study Analysis
                         C. Representative Farm
                                                  of Factors Affecting the
   Enhancing Policies          Analysis of
                                                         Scale and
                         Productivity Enhancing
     & Investments              Options
                                                      Sustainability of
                                                    Productivity Growth



                                                                 PARTNERSHIPS
                                                                 IN SUPPORT
                                                                 OF CAADP
Measures of Productivity

• Partial factor productivity (land and labor)

• Total factor productivity and decomposition
  – efficiency arising from reallocation of
    productive factors

  – technical change arising from things that do
    not directly relate to the factors of
    production or the productivity of the factors



                                        PARTNERSHIPS
                                        IN SUPPORT
                                        OF CAADP
Trends and Spatial Patterns in
 Land and Labor Productivity




                        PARTNERSHIPS
                        IN SUPPORT
                        OF CAADP
Land and labor productivity in SSA
                  and sub-regions (1961-2009)
Land productivity (2004-06 US$
                                 Eastern &
                                  Central         SSA
                                                                Western
                  (2004
            PPP)




                                          Southern

                                 Labor productivity (2004-06 US$ PPP)
                                                            PARTNERSHIPS
                                                            IN SUPPORT
                                                            OF CAADP
Land and labor productivity in
                 selected countries (1961-2009)

Land productivity (2004-06 US$
                                  Ethiopia,
                                 1993-2009
                                                       Nigeria
                  (2004



                                        Kenya
            PPP)




                                                South Africa




                           Labor productivity (2004-06 US$ PPP)
                                                            PARTNERSHIPS
                                                                 IN SUPPORT
                                                                 OF CAADP
Summary of Trends
• Labor productivity has risen much faster than land
  productivity in Africa as a whole
  – particularly in the northern region a trend that is
    driven by Egypt

• In SSA and many other countries, land productivity
  has risen much faster than labor productivity
• In the southern Africa and in Morocco both
  measures have risen at about the same rate
• General slowdown in the increase in both land and
  labor productivity in the 1990s than in preceding or
  subsequent sub-periods.

                                            PARTNERSHIPS
                                            IN SUPPORT
                                            OF CAADP
Spatial Patterns (annual avg. 2005-07)




   Land                         Labor



• Land productivity
 • Closer for ECA ($690/ha) and SA ($756/ha); significantly
   higher in WA ($1300/ha)
 • In WA, rising from semi-arid Agro-Pastoral systems of
   the Sahel ($700/ha), through the higher rainfall Cereal-
   Root Crop system ($1293/ha) and Root Crop system
   ($2129/ha), to the sub-humid and humid Coastal
                                              PARTNERSHIPS
   Artisanal Fishing system ($2143/ha)        IN SUPPORT
                                              OF CAADP
Trends in Total Factor
  Productivity (TFP)




                    PARTNERSHIPS
                    IN SUPPORT
                    OF CAADP
Share (%) in Africa’s total AgGDP
  (annual average 2003-2010)
                  Nigeria
                    Egypt
                Morocco
                                                   • Drivers of trends
                  Algeria
                   Sudan
                   Kenya
             South Africa
                 Ethiopia
                                                     at Africa-wide
                Tanzania
            Côte d'Ivoire
               Cameroon
                   Ghana
                                                     level (top 9)
                  Tunisia
     Congo, Dem. Rep.
                 Uganda
                    Libya
                      Mali
                                                     –   Nigeria
            Mozambique
             Madagascar
               Zimbabwe
                    Benin
                                                     –   Egypt
            Burkina Faso
                  Guinea
                    Niger
                 Rwanda
                 Senegal
                                                     –   Morocco
                  Angola
                  Zambia
                    Chad
                  Malawi                             –   Algeria
Central African Republic
                    Togo
            Sierra Leone
                 Namibia
                  Liberia
                                                     –   Sudan*
                   Gabon
                Mauritius
               Mauritania
                 Burundi
         Congo, Rep. of
                                                     –   Kenya
               Swaziland
               Botswana
            Gambia, The
      Equatorial Guinea
                                                     –   South Africa
          Guinea-Bissau
                Comoros
                   Eritrea
                 Lesotho
              Cape Verde
                                                     –   Ethiopia
                 Djibouti
              Seychelles
                 Somalia
 Sao Tome and Principe                               –   Tanzania
                  Mayote

                                                             PARTNERSHIPS
                             0   5   10 15 20 25             IN SUPPORT
                                                             OF CAADP
TFP in SSA (1961=1)
1.4

1.0

0.6

0.2
      1961     1971      1981       1991              2001
             TFP           Eff             Tech

• Slight improvement in 1960s followed by a rapid
  deterioration in TFP and efficiency till mid-1980s
  and then recovery starting in 1984-1985
• Very little technical change
                                           PARTNERSHIPS
                                           IN SUPPORT
                                           OF CAADP
Major Drivers of the trends in SSA:
        Nigeria and South Africa
3                   Nigeria
2

1                                                •   Nigeria exerts
0                                                    downward
    1961   1971     1981         1991     2001

           TFP             Eff          Tech
                                                     pressure

3                 South Africa                   •   South Africa
2                                                    exerts upward
1                                                    pressure
0
    1961   1971     1981         1991     2001

           TFP             Eff          Tech
                                                       PARTNERSHIPS
                                                       IN SUPPORT
                                                       OF CAADP
Annual Average Growth Rate in TFP
      by Region (%, 1985-2005)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
      SSA   Central   Eastern   Southern   Western   LI-1       LI-2        LI-3       MI

      SSA             Geograpic Location                     Economic Classification

                Technical change                            Efficiency

• High TFP growth in western, but little technical change
• Southern Africa outperforms in technical change
• Technical change in the central region was also high
                                                                       PARTNERSHIPS
                                                                       IN SUPPORT
                                                                       OF CAADP
-8
                                                                      -6
                                                                      -4
                                                                      -2
                                                                       0
                                                                       2
                                                                       4
                                                                       6
                                                                       8
                                                                      10
                                                                       Lesotho
                                                                       Senegal
                                                                     Swaziland
                                                                   Madagascar
                                                                       Gambia
                                                                     Zimbabwe
                                                                    Mauritania
                                                                            Mali
                                                                        Guinea
                                                                         Kenya
                                                                        Zambia
                                                                       Ethiopia
                                                                  Cote d'Ivoire
                                                                  Burkina Faso
                                                                 Guinea Bissau
                                                                                   Technical change




                                                                     Cameroon
                                                                           Togo
                                                                         Sudan
                                                                  Mozambique
                                                                          Chad
                                                                      Tanzania
                                                                  Sierra Leone
                                                                                                          by country (%, 1985-2005)




                                                                          Benin
                 performance for Big 9 agricultural economies




                                                                   South Africa
OF CAADP
IN SUPPORT
               • Except South Africa, average or below average
                                                                                   Efficiency




                                                                         Gabon
PARTNERSHIPS




                                                                        Malawi
                                                                                                      Annual Average Growth Rate in TFP




                                                                        Nigeria
                                                                         Ghana
                                                                        Angola
Factors Affecting Productivity
• Typology of agricultural production (IFPRI
  spatial allocation model, several secondary
  and GIS data, and cluster analysis )

• Typology of rural households (household
  survey data and cluster analysis)

• Farm profit maximization analysis
  (household survey data and data
  envelopment analysis)

• Case study analysis (22 cases out of 120
  potential)                          PARTNERSHIPS
                                      IN SUPPORT
                                      OF CAADP
Typology of Production and
       Rural Households
• Agricultural production (IFPRI spatial
  allocation model and data)
  – Farming systems (Dixon et al. 2001)
  – Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
    (NDVI) for agricultural potential
  – Market access
  – Population density

• Typology of rural households (household
  survey data)
  – Human capital
  – Physical capital
  – Financial capital                PARTNERSHIPS
                                     IN SUPPORT
                                     OF CAADP
Typology of Ag. Production in SSA
Farming System          Sub-system
Tree-root crop          Cassava+cocoa; Roots+cattle;
                        Livestock
Highlands               Pulse+cassava+banana+cattle;
                        Maize+ cattle; Cattle; Sheep/Goats
Cereal-Root Crop        Cattle; Sorghum/Millet+groundnut+
                        cattle; Roots
Maize Mixed             Roots; Maize+tobacco+cattle;
                        Livestock; Sugarcane+cattle
Pastoral/Agro-pastoral Sorghum/Millet+groundnut; Rice+
                       livestock; Sorghum/Millet+livestock;
                       Livestock; Maize+cattle
Irrigated
Large commercial and
                                             PARTNERSHIPS
smallholder                                  IN SUPPORT
                                             OF CAADP
Characteristics of the tree-root crop
   farming system and subsystems
                                       Tree-Root Crop Farming System
                                    Cassava + Roots + cattle           Livestock
                                        cocoa
Share of total agricultural value in subsystem (%)
 Rice                                      5.2            6.7                 1.2
 Maize                                     4.1            9.3                 2.4
 Sweet potato                              5.0           10.3                 1.0
 Cassava                                  10.8           16.5                 3.8
 Groundnut                                 1.7            6.0                 1.2
 Banana                                    8.5            8.3                 1.9
 Coffee                                    1.9            2.7                 0.6
 Cocoa                                    48.2            1.4                 0.1
 Cattle                                    1.7           10.1               43.0
 Sheep/goat                                2.2            4.3               29.6
Share of total in farming system (%)
 Population                               61.3           34.1                 4.6
 Crop area                                55.0           40.7                 4.3
Production environment
 Pop. density                             high           highPARTNERSHIPS   high
                                                             IN SUPPORT
 NDVI                                     high           high CAADP
                                                             OF             med
Rural households in tree-root crop
       farming system and subsystems:
                case of Ghana
Sub-      Hhd type            Physical Capital              Financial Capital       Main crops
system
                     Area &   Input   Machine    Hired    Access    Income per
                     assets intensity            labor   to loans      capita
          1 (TC1)     +++      +++       -        +++      ++++         ++++        Cassava, maize
          2 (TC2)      +      ++++       -        +++      ++++         ++++        Cassava, plantain,
Tree                                                                                maize
Crop
          3 (TC3)    +++++   +++++       +        ++     +++++        +++++         Cassava/Yam, maize,
                                                                                    cocoa
          1 (CR1)    +++++     ++        -        ++       +++         +++          Sorghum/millet,
Cereal-                                                                             maize, groundnuts,
Root                                                                                rice
Crop      2 (CR2)    ++++      +         -        ++       ++           +           Sorghum/millet,
                                                                                    maize, groundnuts
          1 (RC1)      +       +         -       +++++     +++         ++           Maize, groundnuts,
                                                                                    roots
          2 (RC2)      +       +         -       +++++      +          +++          Yam, cassava
          3 (RC3)     +         +        -       +++++      +         ++++          Yam
Root
          4 (RC4)     ++        +        -        ++++     ++           +           Sorghum, maize
Crop
          5 (RC5)     +       +++        -          +      ++          ++           Maize, groundnuts
          6 (RC6)     ++      ++++       -         ++      ++          +++          Maize, groundnuts,
                                                                                    cassava
                                                                                PARTNERSHIPS
                                                                                IN SUPPORT
          7 (RC7)     +++      ++       +++      +++       +++          +            Groundnuts,   maize
                                                                                OF CAADP
Ghana Farm Analysis Results I
Subsystem          Profit     Land      Labor    Land and
 Hhd type            eff. oriented oriented labor oriented
                         profit eff. profit eff. profit eff.
Tree crop           0.23       0.22       0.63        0.64
Cereal-root crop    0.34       0.14       0.43        0.43
Tree crop
 Type 1             0.23      0.23      0.60                  0.62
 Type2              0.23      0.23      0.66                  0.67
 Type 3             0.22      0.22      0.63                  0.64
Cereal-root crop
 Type 1             0.35      0.15      0.42                  0.41
 Type 2             0.33      0.14      0.43                  0.43

Profit efficiency in labor-direction measure is
much higher than other efficiency measures
                                               PARTNERSHIPS
                                               IN SUPPORT
                                               OF CAADP
Ghana Farm Analysis Results II
• Labor is the most limiting resource across
  all three subsystems and all household
  types
  – Shadow price of labor is much larger than
    that of land

• Higher yields are related to more intensive
  use of labor than to input use
• Thus, technical change and greater use of
  chemical inputs more likely to occur if
  channeled as part of a labor-saving
  technology package
                                      PARTNERSHIPS
                                      IN SUPPORT
                                      OF CAADP
Case Studies: conceptual framework
5. Conditioning and          1. Problem identification
cross-cutting factors        • Is the problem correctly diagnosed?
• Participation or
  involvement of             2. Design and targeting
                             • Right solution to the problem/socioeconomic
  beneficiaries (including     conditions of an area?
  gender considerations)     • Right area? Where the poor are located
• Funding/Financial          • Right enterprise (suitability, community needs)
                             • Right beneficiaries (SHF)
  Resources
• Complementary
                             3. Implementation
  interventions              • Appropriate strategy
• Necessary partnerships     • Clarity of the intervention logic/result based?
• Supporting                 • Adaptive Management? / Learning from M&E?
  Infrastructure
                             4. Sustainability
• Supporting                 • Natural Resource Management (soil, water)
  policies, policy           • Financing/ resource after (e.g. project end),
  instruments, legislation     Maintenance costs
                             • Beneficiaries motivated? Ownership and
• Capacity building to the
                               responsibility to sustain the success
  recipients                                              PARTNERSHIPS
                                                          IN SUPPORT
                                                          OF CAADP
Case Study Findings I
• Problem identification, targeting, and choice of
  commodity were generally well done in both
  successful and failed interventions
  – most of the interventions seem to be based on
    good needs assessment as well as local
    knowledge
• Gender consideration and sustainability issues
  were problematic and not adequately incorporated
  in most of the reviewed case studies
• With sustainability, main issue was little
  complementary funding to that provided by donors,
  and so many of the activities were not carried on
  once the projected ended
                                           PARTNERSHIPS
                                           IN SUPPORT
                                           OF CAADP
Unsuccessful Case Study Findings I
• Conceptualization and design phase:
  – Imposed plans and top-down approaches that take no
    consideration of local community beliefs, preferences
    and perceptions;
  – Poorly defined or unrealistic scope of operation with
    no clearly defined objectives and time lines.

• Start-up phase:
  – Limited coordination among stakeholders;
  – Poor implementation capacity of beneficiaries
    especially at the sub-national levels;
  – Lack of ownership and responsibility of the
    intervention by the recipient
  – Delays in project start up (release of funding and
    procurement of goods and services)
                                               PARTNERSHIPS
                                               IN SUPPORT
                                               OF CAADP
Unsuccessful Case Study Findings II
• Project implementation and follow-up phase:
  – Lack of financial support to maintain the program e.g.
    no system to cater for the maintenance costs of
    irrigation infrastructure, cannot afford money to
    maintain boreholes, farmers cannot afford the high
    costs of fertilizers at the end of a subsidy program;

  – Farmer mistrust of programs due to past
    disappointments;

  – Leadership and management challenges—e.g. who
    should be in-charge of what remains at the end of the
    project period

  – Imported technologies with little or no local
    maintenance and spare parts.

                                               PARTNERSHIPS
                                               IN SUPPORT
                                               OF CAADP
Conclusions and Implications:

  raising and maintaining high
agricultural productivity in Africa




                           PARTNERSHIPS
                           IN SUPPORT
                           OF CAADP
Conclusions and Implications
• Agricultural productivity growth in Africa, and
  particularly in SSA, has been impressive since the
  mid-1980s
• But the performance represents a mere catching
  up with the levels achieved in the early 1960s, and
  there has been very little technical change
• Sustaining growth in labor productivity faces
  challenge of population growth and slowdown in
  land availability
• This will require policy improvements and
  significant investments in agricultural R&D an other
  investments that accelerate the expansion of
  Africa’s technical frontier
                                           PARTNERSHIPS
                                           IN SUPPORT
                                           OF CAADP
• AgR&D infrastructure and capacities have eroded
   over time through years of neglect, primarily from
   lack of public funding for agR&D.
 • Growth in spending on agR&D and number of
   researchers have only recently picked up; reflects the
   trends in agricultural productivity growth
                                annual average growth rate (%)
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
        1971-1981


                    1981-1991


                                  1991-2001


                                              2001-2008


                                                          1971-1981


                                                                      1981-1991


                                                                                     1991-2001


                                                                                                 2001-2008
                                                                                  PARTNERSHIPS
                                                                                  IN SUPPORT
Source: Beintema and Stads (2011)                                                 OF CAADP
0
                                                                              5
                                                                                  10
                                                                                       15
                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                         25
                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                                                                             15
                                                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                                                                            25
                                                                                                                                                                                               30
                                                               Angola                                                                Angola
                                                                 Benin                                                                 Benin
                                                            Botswana                                                              Botswana
                                                         Burkina Faso                                                          Burkina Faso
                                                              Burundi                                                               Burundi
                                                            Cameroon                                                              Cameroon
                                                        Central African…                                                      Central African…
                                                                 Chad                                                                  Chad
                                                             Comoros                                                               Comoros
                                                     Congo, Dem. Rep.                                                     Congo, Dem. Rep.
                                                          Congo, Rep.                                                           Congo, Rep.
                                                          Côte d'Ivoire                                                         Côte d'Ivoire
                                                               Djibouti                                                              Djibouti
                                                                 Egypt                                                                 Egypt
                                                              Ethiopia                                                              Ethiopia
                                                              Gambia                                                                Gambia
                                                                Ghana                                                                 Ghana
                                                               Guinea                                                                Guinea
                                                        Guinea-Bissau                                                         Guinea-Bissau
                                                                Kenya                                                                 Kenya
                                                              Lesotho                                                               Lesotho
                                                                Liberia                                                               Liberia
                                                          Madagascar                                                            Madagascar
                                                               Malawi                                                                Malawi
                                                                  Mali                                                                  Mali
                                                            Mauritania                                                            Mauritania
                                                             Mauritius                                                             Mauritius
                                                              Morocco                                                               Morocco
                                                         Mozambique                                                            Mozambique
                                                              Namibia                                                               Namibia
                                                                 Niger                                                                 Niger
                                                                                                                                                                       Annual Average (1995-2003)




                                                                                            Annual Average (2003-2010)




                                                               Nigeria                                                               Nigeria
                                                              Rwanda                                                                Rwanda
                                                                  STP                                                                   STP
                                                              Senegal                                                               Senegal
                                                           Seychelles                                                            Seychelles
                                                         Sierra Leone                                                          Sierra Leone
                                                                Sudan                                                                 Sudan
                                                            Swaziland                                                             Swaziland
                                                             Tanzania                                                              Tanzania
Except Ethiopia, none of Big 9 has achieved target




                                                                 Togo                                                                  Togo
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Meeting the Maputo 10% target




                                                               Tunisia                                                               Tunisia
                                                              Uganda                                                                Uganda
                                                                                                                                                         CAADP




                                                               Zambia                                                                Zambia
                                                                                   CAADP
                                                                                                                                                        10% target




                                                                                  10% target




                                                            Zimbabwe                                                              Zimbabwe
How much is spent on agR&D?
                   AgR&D spending as a share
                      of agGDP (%), 2008
                    Source: Beintema and Stads (2011)




• Only 8 of the 31 countries studied met the NEPAD 1% target
• Except Kenya and South Africa, the other big agricultural economies
  spent less than 0.5 percent
• The other high performers
  (Botswana, Burundi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, and Uganda)
  together account for only 3.2 percent of Africa’s total agGDP; little impact
  on the performance for Africa/SSA as a whole              PARTNERSHIPS
                                                           IN SUPPORT
                                                           OF CAADP
How has the increase in agR&D
     expenditure been allocated?
             Ghana                            Tanzania




              Nigeria                          Uganda



                                   Source: Beintema and Stads (2011)

• Ghana: mostly salaries
• Tanzania: capital investments in 2002-2004 and
  operating costs in following years
• Uganda: operating costs
                                            PARTNERSHIPS
                                            IN SUPPORT
                                            OF CAADP
What types of investment are
            needed?
• Those that deliver location-specific technologies
  and account for diversity of potentials in and
  constraints faced by farmers
  – But many small economies and limited
    capacities and resources for developing
    effective agR&D systems
  – Regional agricultural R&D strategy can help fill
    these gaps and facilitate scale economies.
  – African centers of excellence initiatives are
    laudable
  – Need complementary polices and extension
    systems that enhances and maximizes the
    technology spillovers from centers to all places
                                           PARTNERSHIPS
                                           IN SUPPORT
                                           OF CAADP
Country SAKSS Update




                PARTNERSHIPS
                IN SUPPORT
                OF CAADP
SAKSS: Broker of Strategic
                 Analysis/Knowledge
                                      Broker
     Demand                                                      Supply
    Parliament, PS,
                            Policy          Think            Statistics
                           Analysis      Tanks, Centra   Bureaus, Universiti
    FBOs, Donors,
                            Units           l Bank           es, FBOs
      Directors
       SAKSS                   SAKSS             SAKSS Network
    Oversight Body              Node
                           •Identify and sensitize    •Express interest and
• Credence of SAKSS in
                            knowledge gaps             buy into vision
  CAADP process
                           •Synthesize knowledge      •Align knowledge
• Governance
                           •Mobilize and coordinate    generation activities
• Channel knowledge
                            knowledge generation      •Receive funding and
  and evidence to policy
                           •Facilitate training        training
  makers
                           •…                         •…
•…
Country SAKSS Approach
• Group countries
  – SAKSS-ready: Benin, DRC, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya,
    Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo (15)
  – SAKSS-sensitized: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde,
    Central Africa Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea,
    Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, Seychelles, Sierra
    Leone, Swaziland, and Zambia (14)
  – SAKSS-beginning: remaining countries
• Regional Workshop: SAKSS concepts and launch
  capacity needs assessment work (2 done, 3 to go)
• Conduct capacity needs assessments: individual
  country reports and synthesis (complete by end
  June)
• Develop and implement capacity strengthening
  strategy (start in July)                PARTNERSHIPS
                                                 IN SUPPORT
                                                 OF CAADP
SAKSS: capacity strengthening activities
  Parliament, PS,
                      Policy        Think             Statistics
                     Analysis    Tanks, Centra    Bureaus, Universiti
  FBOs, Donors,
                      Units         l Bank            es, FBOs
    Directors
       OB                 Node                   Network
   Level 100
     Rationale and
       Concepts
    (CAADP; Policy       Level 200
       Analysis)         Concepts and
                          Application
                        (Policy Analysis;        Level 300 …
                         Report Writing)      Application and
                                                 Modeling
                                            (CGE, Econometrics,
                                                Data Work)
Thank You


            PARTNERSHIPS
            IN SUPPORT
            OF CAADP

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ReSAKSS at 8th CAADP

  • 1. ReSAKSS 2011 ATOR, Country SAKSS Progress Report, and 2012 Plans Sam Benin The CAADP 8th PP MEETING Hilton Hotel, Nairobi 3–4 May 2012 PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 2. Outline • Agricultural productivity study: feature topic of 2011 annual trends and outlook report (ATOR): in collaboration with IFPRI’s HarvestChoice program • Progress with establishment/strengthening of country SAKSS PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 3. Agricultural Productivity Study • How to raise and maintain high agricultural productivity across different parts of Africa? – fundamental and conceptual issues on the definition and measurement of agricultural productivity (temporal and spatial analysis) – more sophisticated analysis on understanding the determinants and drivers of agricultural productivity – seemingly-easy, but methodological- challenging case analysis of successful and failed agricultural productivity programs PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 4. Overview of Agricultural Productivity Study: Framework and Sequence A. Regional B. Key System Spatial Typologies for Characterization focusing of Agricultural productivity efforts Productivity (e.g. country x Opportunities & farming system) Challenges Focus Geographies/Systems Strategic Opportunities for Productivity D. Case Study Analysis C. Representative Farm of Factors Affecting the Enhancing Policies Analysis of Scale and Productivity Enhancing & Investments Options Sustainability of Productivity Growth PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 5. Measures of Productivity • Partial factor productivity (land and labor) • Total factor productivity and decomposition – efficiency arising from reallocation of productive factors – technical change arising from things that do not directly relate to the factors of production or the productivity of the factors PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 6. Trends and Spatial Patterns in Land and Labor Productivity PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 7. Land and labor productivity in SSA and sub-regions (1961-2009) Land productivity (2004-06 US$ Eastern & Central SSA Western (2004 PPP) Southern Labor productivity (2004-06 US$ PPP) PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 8. Land and labor productivity in selected countries (1961-2009) Land productivity (2004-06 US$ Ethiopia, 1993-2009 Nigeria (2004 Kenya PPP) South Africa Labor productivity (2004-06 US$ PPP) PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 9. Summary of Trends • Labor productivity has risen much faster than land productivity in Africa as a whole – particularly in the northern region a trend that is driven by Egypt • In SSA and many other countries, land productivity has risen much faster than labor productivity • In the southern Africa and in Morocco both measures have risen at about the same rate • General slowdown in the increase in both land and labor productivity in the 1990s than in preceding or subsequent sub-periods. PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 10. Spatial Patterns (annual avg. 2005-07) Land Labor • Land productivity • Closer for ECA ($690/ha) and SA ($756/ha); significantly higher in WA ($1300/ha) • In WA, rising from semi-arid Agro-Pastoral systems of the Sahel ($700/ha), through the higher rainfall Cereal- Root Crop system ($1293/ha) and Root Crop system ($2129/ha), to the sub-humid and humid Coastal PARTNERSHIPS Artisanal Fishing system ($2143/ha) IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 11. Trends in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 12. Share (%) in Africa’s total AgGDP (annual average 2003-2010) Nigeria Egypt Morocco • Drivers of trends Algeria Sudan Kenya South Africa Ethiopia at Africa-wide Tanzania Côte d'Ivoire Cameroon Ghana level (top 9) Tunisia Congo, Dem. Rep. Uganda Libya Mali – Nigeria Mozambique Madagascar Zimbabwe Benin – Egypt Burkina Faso Guinea Niger Rwanda Senegal – Morocco Angola Zambia Chad Malawi – Algeria Central African Republic Togo Sierra Leone Namibia Liberia – Sudan* Gabon Mauritius Mauritania Burundi Congo, Rep. of – Kenya Swaziland Botswana Gambia, The Equatorial Guinea – South Africa Guinea-Bissau Comoros Eritrea Lesotho Cape Verde – Ethiopia Djibouti Seychelles Somalia Sao Tome and Principe – Tanzania Mayote PARTNERSHIPS 0 5 10 15 20 25 IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 13. TFP in SSA (1961=1) 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 TFP Eff Tech • Slight improvement in 1960s followed by a rapid deterioration in TFP and efficiency till mid-1980s and then recovery starting in 1984-1985 • Very little technical change PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 14. Major Drivers of the trends in SSA: Nigeria and South Africa 3 Nigeria 2 1 • Nigeria exerts 0 downward 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 TFP Eff Tech pressure 3 South Africa • South Africa 2 exerts upward 1 pressure 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 TFP Eff Tech PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 15. Annual Average Growth Rate in TFP by Region (%, 1985-2005) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 SSA Central Eastern Southern Western LI-1 LI-2 LI-3 MI SSA Geograpic Location Economic Classification Technical change Efficiency • High TFP growth in western, but little technical change • Southern Africa outperforms in technical change • Technical change in the central region was also high PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 16. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Lesotho Senegal Swaziland Madagascar Gambia Zimbabwe Mauritania Mali Guinea Kenya Zambia Ethiopia Cote d'Ivoire Burkina Faso Guinea Bissau Technical change Cameroon Togo Sudan Mozambique Chad Tanzania Sierra Leone by country (%, 1985-2005) Benin performance for Big 9 agricultural economies South Africa OF CAADP IN SUPPORT • Except South Africa, average or below average Efficiency Gabon PARTNERSHIPS Malawi Annual Average Growth Rate in TFP Nigeria Ghana Angola
  • 17. Factors Affecting Productivity • Typology of agricultural production (IFPRI spatial allocation model, several secondary and GIS data, and cluster analysis ) • Typology of rural households (household survey data and cluster analysis) • Farm profit maximization analysis (household survey data and data envelopment analysis) • Case study analysis (22 cases out of 120 potential) PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 18. Typology of Production and Rural Households • Agricultural production (IFPRI spatial allocation model and data) – Farming systems (Dixon et al. 2001) – Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for agricultural potential – Market access – Population density • Typology of rural households (household survey data) – Human capital – Physical capital – Financial capital PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 19. Typology of Ag. Production in SSA Farming System Sub-system Tree-root crop Cassava+cocoa; Roots+cattle; Livestock Highlands Pulse+cassava+banana+cattle; Maize+ cattle; Cattle; Sheep/Goats Cereal-Root Crop Cattle; Sorghum/Millet+groundnut+ cattle; Roots Maize Mixed Roots; Maize+tobacco+cattle; Livestock; Sugarcane+cattle Pastoral/Agro-pastoral Sorghum/Millet+groundnut; Rice+ livestock; Sorghum/Millet+livestock; Livestock; Maize+cattle Irrigated Large commercial and PARTNERSHIPS smallholder IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 20. Characteristics of the tree-root crop farming system and subsystems Tree-Root Crop Farming System Cassava + Roots + cattle Livestock cocoa Share of total agricultural value in subsystem (%) Rice 5.2 6.7 1.2 Maize 4.1 9.3 2.4 Sweet potato 5.0 10.3 1.0 Cassava 10.8 16.5 3.8 Groundnut 1.7 6.0 1.2 Banana 8.5 8.3 1.9 Coffee 1.9 2.7 0.6 Cocoa 48.2 1.4 0.1 Cattle 1.7 10.1 43.0 Sheep/goat 2.2 4.3 29.6 Share of total in farming system (%) Population 61.3 34.1 4.6 Crop area 55.0 40.7 4.3 Production environment Pop. density high highPARTNERSHIPS high IN SUPPORT NDVI high high CAADP OF med
  • 21. Rural households in tree-root crop farming system and subsystems: case of Ghana Sub- Hhd type Physical Capital Financial Capital Main crops system Area & Input Machine Hired Access Income per assets intensity labor to loans capita 1 (TC1) +++ +++ - +++ ++++ ++++ Cassava, maize 2 (TC2) + ++++ - +++ ++++ ++++ Cassava, plantain, Tree maize Crop 3 (TC3) +++++ +++++ + ++ +++++ +++++ Cassava/Yam, maize, cocoa 1 (CR1) +++++ ++ - ++ +++ +++ Sorghum/millet, Cereal- maize, groundnuts, Root rice Crop 2 (CR2) ++++ + - ++ ++ + Sorghum/millet, maize, groundnuts 1 (RC1) + + - +++++ +++ ++ Maize, groundnuts, roots 2 (RC2) + + - +++++ + +++ Yam, cassava 3 (RC3) + + - +++++ + ++++ Yam Root 4 (RC4) ++ + - ++++ ++ + Sorghum, maize Crop 5 (RC5) + +++ - + ++ ++ Maize, groundnuts 6 (RC6) ++ ++++ - ++ ++ +++ Maize, groundnuts, cassava PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT 7 (RC7) +++ ++ +++ +++ +++ + Groundnuts, maize OF CAADP
  • 22. Ghana Farm Analysis Results I Subsystem Profit Land Labor Land and Hhd type eff. oriented oriented labor oriented profit eff. profit eff. profit eff. Tree crop 0.23 0.22 0.63 0.64 Cereal-root crop 0.34 0.14 0.43 0.43 Tree crop Type 1 0.23 0.23 0.60 0.62 Type2 0.23 0.23 0.66 0.67 Type 3 0.22 0.22 0.63 0.64 Cereal-root crop Type 1 0.35 0.15 0.42 0.41 Type 2 0.33 0.14 0.43 0.43 Profit efficiency in labor-direction measure is much higher than other efficiency measures PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 23. Ghana Farm Analysis Results II • Labor is the most limiting resource across all three subsystems and all household types – Shadow price of labor is much larger than that of land • Higher yields are related to more intensive use of labor than to input use • Thus, technical change and greater use of chemical inputs more likely to occur if channeled as part of a labor-saving technology package PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 24. Case Studies: conceptual framework 5. Conditioning and 1. Problem identification cross-cutting factors • Is the problem correctly diagnosed? • Participation or involvement of 2. Design and targeting • Right solution to the problem/socioeconomic beneficiaries (including conditions of an area? gender considerations) • Right area? Where the poor are located • Funding/Financial • Right enterprise (suitability, community needs) • Right beneficiaries (SHF) Resources • Complementary 3. Implementation interventions • Appropriate strategy • Necessary partnerships • Clarity of the intervention logic/result based? • Supporting • Adaptive Management? / Learning from M&E? Infrastructure 4. Sustainability • Supporting • Natural Resource Management (soil, water) policies, policy • Financing/ resource after (e.g. project end), instruments, legislation Maintenance costs • Beneficiaries motivated? Ownership and • Capacity building to the responsibility to sustain the success recipients PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 25. Case Study Findings I • Problem identification, targeting, and choice of commodity were generally well done in both successful and failed interventions – most of the interventions seem to be based on good needs assessment as well as local knowledge • Gender consideration and sustainability issues were problematic and not adequately incorporated in most of the reviewed case studies • With sustainability, main issue was little complementary funding to that provided by donors, and so many of the activities were not carried on once the projected ended PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 26. Unsuccessful Case Study Findings I • Conceptualization and design phase: – Imposed plans and top-down approaches that take no consideration of local community beliefs, preferences and perceptions; – Poorly defined or unrealistic scope of operation with no clearly defined objectives and time lines. • Start-up phase: – Limited coordination among stakeholders; – Poor implementation capacity of beneficiaries especially at the sub-national levels; – Lack of ownership and responsibility of the intervention by the recipient – Delays in project start up (release of funding and procurement of goods and services) PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 27. Unsuccessful Case Study Findings II • Project implementation and follow-up phase: – Lack of financial support to maintain the program e.g. no system to cater for the maintenance costs of irrigation infrastructure, cannot afford money to maintain boreholes, farmers cannot afford the high costs of fertilizers at the end of a subsidy program; – Farmer mistrust of programs due to past disappointments; – Leadership and management challenges—e.g. who should be in-charge of what remains at the end of the project period – Imported technologies with little or no local maintenance and spare parts. PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 28. Conclusions and Implications: raising and maintaining high agricultural productivity in Africa PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 29. Conclusions and Implications • Agricultural productivity growth in Africa, and particularly in SSA, has been impressive since the mid-1980s • But the performance represents a mere catching up with the levels achieved in the early 1960s, and there has been very little technical change • Sustaining growth in labor productivity faces challenge of population growth and slowdown in land availability • This will require policy improvements and significant investments in agricultural R&D an other investments that accelerate the expansion of Africa’s technical frontier PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 30. • AgR&D infrastructure and capacities have eroded over time through years of neglect, primarily from lack of public funding for agR&D. • Growth in spending on agR&D and number of researchers have only recently picked up; reflects the trends in agricultural productivity growth annual average growth rate (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2008 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2008 PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT Source: Beintema and Stads (2011) OF CAADP
  • 31. 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Angola Angola Benin Benin Botswana Botswana Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Burundi Burundi Cameroon Cameroon Central African… Central African… Chad Chad Comoros Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d'Ivoire Côte d'Ivoire Djibouti Djibouti Egypt Egypt Ethiopia Ethiopia Gambia Gambia Ghana Ghana Guinea Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau Kenya Kenya Lesotho Lesotho Liberia Liberia Madagascar Madagascar Malawi Malawi Mali Mali Mauritania Mauritania Mauritius Mauritius Morocco Morocco Mozambique Mozambique Namibia Namibia Niger Niger Annual Average (1995-2003) Annual Average (2003-2010) Nigeria Nigeria Rwanda Rwanda STP STP Senegal Senegal Seychelles Seychelles Sierra Leone Sierra Leone Sudan Sudan Swaziland Swaziland Tanzania Tanzania Except Ethiopia, none of Big 9 has achieved target Togo Togo Meeting the Maputo 10% target Tunisia Tunisia Uganda Uganda CAADP Zambia Zambia CAADP 10% target 10% target Zimbabwe Zimbabwe
  • 32. How much is spent on agR&D? AgR&D spending as a share of agGDP (%), 2008 Source: Beintema and Stads (2011) • Only 8 of the 31 countries studied met the NEPAD 1% target • Except Kenya and South Africa, the other big agricultural economies spent less than 0.5 percent • The other high performers (Botswana, Burundi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, and Uganda) together account for only 3.2 percent of Africa’s total agGDP; little impact on the performance for Africa/SSA as a whole PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 33. How has the increase in agR&D expenditure been allocated? Ghana Tanzania Nigeria Uganda Source: Beintema and Stads (2011) • Ghana: mostly salaries • Tanzania: capital investments in 2002-2004 and operating costs in following years • Uganda: operating costs PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 34. What types of investment are needed? • Those that deliver location-specific technologies and account for diversity of potentials in and constraints faced by farmers – But many small economies and limited capacities and resources for developing effective agR&D systems – Regional agricultural R&D strategy can help fill these gaps and facilitate scale economies. – African centers of excellence initiatives are laudable – Need complementary polices and extension systems that enhances and maximizes the technology spillovers from centers to all places PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 35. Country SAKSS Update PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 36. SAKSS: Broker of Strategic Analysis/Knowledge Broker Demand Supply Parliament, PS, Policy Think Statistics Analysis Tanks, Centra Bureaus, Universiti FBOs, Donors, Units l Bank es, FBOs Directors SAKSS SAKSS SAKSS Network Oversight Body Node •Identify and sensitize •Express interest and • Credence of SAKSS in knowledge gaps buy into vision CAADP process •Synthesize knowledge •Align knowledge • Governance •Mobilize and coordinate generation activities • Channel knowledge knowledge generation •Receive funding and and evidence to policy •Facilitate training training makers •… •… •…
  • 37. Country SAKSS Approach • Group countries – SAKSS-ready: Benin, DRC, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo (15) – SAKSS-sensitized: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central Africa Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, and Zambia (14) – SAKSS-beginning: remaining countries • Regional Workshop: SAKSS concepts and launch capacity needs assessment work (2 done, 3 to go) • Conduct capacity needs assessments: individual country reports and synthesis (complete by end June) • Develop and implement capacity strengthening strategy (start in July) PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP
  • 38. SAKSS: capacity strengthening activities Parliament, PS, Policy Think Statistics Analysis Tanks, Centra Bureaus, Universiti FBOs, Donors, Units l Bank es, FBOs Directors OB Node Network Level 100 Rationale and Concepts (CAADP; Policy Level 200 Analysis) Concepts and Application (Policy Analysis; Level 300 … Report Writing) Application and Modeling (CGE, Econometrics, Data Work)
  • 39. Thank You PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF CAADP