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Redington
13-15 Mallow Street
London EC1Y 8RD
020 7250 3331
www.redington.co.uk
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
RSA House
23rd September, 2010
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
02-Jan-07 02-Jan-08 02-Jan-09 02-Jan-10
UKT 4.75% 20
UKT 4.75% 38
UKT 4.25% 55
• Our weekly RedVision report includes charts (such as Figure 1) which
show the historical Z-spreads on selected gilts
• Historically, nominal and index-linked gilts yields were below nominal
and real swap rates respectively
• As a result, swaps were a very popular tool used by pension funds to
hedge interest rate and inflation risks:
o “unfunded”
o positive spread to gilts
• The historical relationship inverted in Q3 08 – gilt yields rose materially
above swap rates
• As a result:
o presently, longer dated nominal and index-linked gilts are more
attractive than swaps for interest rate and inflation hedging
o this relationship needs monitoring to ensure that the nest
opportunities are captured
The Z-spread is a theoretical spread, designed to allow a fair
comparison between bond yields and swap rates
• In this session, I will introduce the various building blocks necessary to
lead to an understanding of the Z-spread:
o The swap market; calculation of present values
o Zero coupon swaps ; the swap curve and derivation of discount
factors
o Asset swaps and different methods of asset swapping
o Z-spreads
o Inflation swaps & index-linked gilts
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads: Overview
Source: Barclays Capital, Redington, Bloomberg
Figure 1: Historical Z-Spreads on Index-Linked Gilts
2
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Overview
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
02-Jan-07 02-Jan-08 02-Jan-09 02-Jan-10
UKTI 2.5% 20
UKTI 1.125% 37
UKTI 1.25% 55
Figure 2: Historical Z-Spreads on Gilts
3
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Introduction to Swaps
Definition
• A swap is an over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivative transaction where the counterparties
agree to exchange cash flows linked to specific market rates for a period of time
• One set of cash flows will typically be known – usually expressed as a fixed rate of interest
• The other set of cash flows will be unknown – for example, linked to short term rates or
inflation
• By definition, at the mid-market price, the present value of both sets of cash flows is the
same at inception
Standardised documentation:
• International Swaps and Derivatives Association (“ISDA “) agreement
• Collateral governed by Credit Support Annex (“CSA”)
Characteristics
• An interest rate swap is an agreement to exchange fixed cash flows for variable cash flows
for example, 6m LIBOR1
• Cash + swap is very similar to a bond
Comparison with bonds
• Paying LIBOR, receiving fixed rate: has similar interest rate exposure to buying a bond
• Paying fixed rate, receiving LIBOR: has very similar interest rate exposure to being short a
bond
Cashflows
• Example: as at 5th July, 5yr GBP interest rate swap is quoted at 2.44%
• Every 6 months, in arrears, Counterparty A pays 6m LIBOR on swap notional
• Every 6 months, in arrears, Counterparty B pays 2.44% (at annual rate) on swap notional
• See slide 6 for details
Recap – What is a Swap?
Counterparty B
Fixed RateLIBORCollateral
Counterparty A
Figure 2: Interest Rate Swap
1London Interbank Offered Rate – the average calculated at 11:00am each day using a trimmed arithmetic mean (i.e. average after dropping the top and bottom
quartiles), based on submissions from a panel of contributor banks 4
Counterparty B
Fixed RateLIBORCollateral
Counterparty A
Figure 3: Cash plus Interest Rate
Swap
CASH
LIBOR
LIBOR legs cancel out leaving
Counterparty B receiving a fixed
rate
Recap – Calculation of Present Values; Discount Factors1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10
Present Value of 100 in 10 Years
at Different Discount Rates
7.5%
5.0%
INTEREST RATE: i %
PERIOD: n years
PRESENT VALUE OF 1:
This is also known as the “discount factor”
n
i)1(
1

5
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Present Values and Discount Factors
1Present value and discount factor calculations for bonds and swaps require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions which is beyond the
scope of this presentation
6
Interest Rate Swap Cashflows
• All future cash flows on the fixed leg are known at inception
• LIBOR leg payments are unknown
• Forward LIBOR payments can be derived from the interest rate
swap curve (see page 9)
• Discount factors can also be derived for each payment date from
the swap curve (see page 9)
• BY DEFINITION, the present value of the fixed leg is equal to the
present value of the floating leg at the time of the transaction
• Fixed rate weighted average of forward LIBOR rates over life of
swap
What is a Swap? Example: Cash Flows on a 5 year GBP Interest Rate Swap
LIBOR payments - unknown
Fixed payments
Periodic exchange of cash flows for life
of transaction
Date
Discount
Factor
Cash
Flow
Present
Value
Cash
Flow
Present
Value
07 Jan 11 0.99486 1.23% 1.22% 0.52% 0.51%
07 Jul 11 0.98896 1.21% 1.20% 0.60% 0.59%
09 Jan 12 0.98153 1.24% 1.22% 0.76% 0.74%
09 Jul 12 0.97235 1.22% 1.18% 0.94% 0.92%
07 Jan 13 0.96084 1.22% 1.17% 1.20% 1.15%
08 Jul 13 0.94771 1.22% 1.15% 1.38% 1.31%
07 Jan 14 0.93308 1.22% 1.14% 1.57% 1.46%
07 Jul 14 0.91730 1.21% 1.11% 1.72% 1.58%
07 Jan 15 0.90114 1.23% 1.11% 1.79% 1.62%
07 Jul 15 0.88439 1.21% 1.07% 1.89% 1.68%
Total 11.56% Total 11.56%
Example: 5year GBP Interest Rate Swap @ 2.44%
Fixed Leg Floating Leg
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
Example: 5year GBP Interest Rate Swap @ 2.44%
Fixed Leg
Floating Leg
Source: Bloomberg, Redington
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Interest Rate Swap Example

Source: Bloomberg, Redington
ZC Interest Rate Swap Cashflows
• As for a par swap, which has semi-annual payments,
payments on a ZC swap are linked to periodic 6m LIBOR rates
and a fixed rate
• However, instead of semi-annual exchange of cash flows,
payments are compounded and exchanged at maturity
• Any desired cash flow profile can be structured using zero coupon
swaps
• Zero coupon swap curve is very useful tool for calculating present
value of any series of future cash flows
• A key advantage is that it takes account of the shape of the swap
curve and uses a term specific rate for each cash flow
• The discount factor is derived from the zero coupon swap rate (see
box)
What is a Zero Coupon (ZC) Swap?
LIBOR payments - unknown
Fixed payments
Single exchange of cash flows at end of
transaction
THE MATHS1
• Fixed Leg:
• Floating leg:
• Discount factor:
)1(
1


n
i
iLIBOR
n
ZCswaprate)1( 
n
ZCswaprate 
 )1(
7
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Introduction to Zero Coupon Swaps
1For illustration of concepts only: actual calculations require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions, which is beyond the scope of this presentation
• Comparison of swaps vs. bonds:
• Bonds: each coupon payment and the maturity proceeds are
discounted using a single rate – the bond yield – in order to
obtain the dirty price
• Swaps: each cash flow discounted at a rate determined by the
date on which it falls due
SWAP CURVES
• A par swap rate is the rate on the fixed leg of a “vanilla” interest rate
swap for the relevant maturity
• Swap rates are available for any given maturity – however, liquidity and
transparency is greatest for whole number of years maturity dates
• Zero coupon rates differ slightly from par swap rates
Discount Rates and Swap Curves
Term Par Swap Rate
Forward 6m
LIBOR Rate
Implied Zero
Coupon Swap Rate
Implied Zero
Coupon Discount
Factor
0.5 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 0.9949
1.0 1.11% 1.20% 1.12% 0.9890
1.5 1.25% 1.49% 1.24% 0.9815
2.0 1.40% 1.89% 1.41% 0.9723
2.5 1.60% 2.40% 1.61% 0.9608
3.0 1.79% 2.78% 1.80% 0.9477
3.5 1.97% 3.13% 1.99% 0.9331
4.0 2.15% 3.47% 2.18% 0.9173
4.5 2.30% 3.56% 2.34% 0.9011
5.0 2.44% 3.82% 2.49% 0.8844
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Derivation of Forward LIBOR & ZC Discount Factors
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Par and Zero Coupon Swap Curves
as at 5th July, 2010
ZC Swap Rate
Par Swap Rate
8
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Discount Rates and Swap Curves
Source: Bloomberg, Redington
• The dark blue bars in the chart below show the semi-annual fixed rate
payments (expressed as annual rate) on a 1 year swap: 1.11%
• The first light blue bar is the 6m par swap rate: 1.02%
• As this swap has just one cash flow, the par rate is, by definition,
identical to the ZC swap rate
• The second light blue bar and the 1 year ZC discount rate are derived
from the fact that the present value of the light blue cash flows must
be the same as the PV of the dark blue cash flows
• We find this comes to 1.20%
• Similar methods are applied to find each subsequent forward LIBOR
rate and hence each zero coupon swap rate
Derivation of Discount Factor from Swap Curve
Term Par Swap Rate
Forward 6m
LIBOR Rate
Implied Zero
Coupon Swap Rate
Implied Zero
Coupon Discount
Factor
0.5 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 0.9949
1.0 1.11% 1.20% 1.12% 0.9890
1.5 1.25% 1.49% 1.24% 0.9815
2.0 1.40% 1.89% 1.41% 0.9723
2.5 1.60% 2.40% 1.61% 0.9608
3.0 1.79% 2.78% 1.80% 0.9477
3.5 1.97% 3.13% 1.99% 0.9331
4.0 2.15% 3.47% 2.18% 0.9173
4.5 2.30% 3.56% 2.34% 0.9011
5.0 2.44% 3.82% 2.49% 0.8844
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Derivation of Forward LIBOR & ZC Discount Factors
9
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Derivation of Discount Factors
THE MATHS1
• Present value of 1 year par swap fixed leg payments = present
value of spot 6m LIBOR plus present value of 6m LIBOR 6m forward
• For zero coupon swaps, payment at maturity = compounded LIBOR
leg – therefore:
• These two equations can be combined to calculate DF1 and LIBOR1
• The same process can them be applied to calculate DF1.5 and
LIBOR1.5 in a process known as “bootstrapping”
115.05.0115.01 DFLIBORDFLIBORDFParSwapDFParSwap 
)5.01()5.01(
1
)5.01(
1
15.0
2
1
1
LIBORLIBORZCswaprate
DF




1For illustration of concepts only: actual calculations require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions, which is beyond the scope of this presentation
Source: Bloomberg, Redington Source: Bloomberg, Redington
1
What is an Asset Swap?
Counterparty
Fixed Rate6m
LIBOR
Collateral
Investor
Simplified Asset Swap
Coupons
Bond (assume at par)
Overview
• An asset swap is a derivative transaction that results in a
change in the form of future cash flows generated by an
asset
• In the bond markets, asset swaps typically take fixed cash
flows on a bond and exchange them for LIBOR (i.e. floating
rate payments)
• ASSET SWAP = BOND + INTEREST RATE SWAP
Motivations for asset swapping
BOND BUYER
• Separation of interest rate and credit spread views: by
removing interest rate exposure, remaining exposure is only
to credit spreads
• Better matching of liability cash flows
BORROWER
• Fixed coupon bonds can be issued to meet demand, whereas
treasury management may prefer floating rate liabilities
Simplified asset swap
• Buy bond at par
• Enter into interest rate swap with maturity matching bond
• Swap spread = bond yield – swap rate
Simplest “real world” asset swap
• Buy bond (price above or below par)
• Enter into interest rate swap with maturity matching bond
• Choose swap notional to duration weight
• Swap spread = bond yield – swap rate
ASSUMPTIONS
• Bond priced at par
• Swap notional = bond notional
• Swap payment dates = bond coupon payment dates
NET CASH FLOWS for Investor
• Pays 100 for bond
• Receives 6m LIBOR
• Receives (Coupon/Bond Yield – Swap Fixed Rate)
• Receives 100 maturity proceeds
• If the bond coupon (yield) is above the swap rate, Investor
ends up receiving cash flows equivalent to a floating rate bond
with payments equal to LIBOR + swap spread
Bond
Interest Rate Swap
Asset Swap
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Introduction to Asset Swaps
1
What is an Asset Swap? Example: Par/Par Asset Swap
Counterparty
Fixed Rate =
Coupon
6m
LIBOR +/-
Spread
Collateral
Investor
Coupons
Bond
Overview
• One of several methods to address problem of bond prices departing
from par
• The “pull to par” is effectively amortised over the life of the bond:
o For bonds below par, yield > coupon
o For bonds above par, yield < coupon
Method
• Fixed leg of interest rate swap exactly matches the bond coupons
• For a high coupon:
o Bond price above par
o Fixed leg will be worth more than the fixed leg of an
interest rate swap at market rates
• For a low coupon
o Bond price below par
o Fixed leg will be worth less than the fixed leg of an
interest rate swap at market rates
• The difference between the coupon and the swap market rate is
offset against the amortisation of the discount or premium vs. par
The net result is the Swap spread which is added to LIBOR leg
• To recap:
• Part of the swap spread is amortisation of bond discount or
premium vs. par
• Remainder of swap spread is difference between bond
coupon rate and interest swap rate
ASSUMPTIONS
• Investor pays par for bond
• Swap notional = bond notional
• Swap payment dates = bond coupon payment dates
NET CASH FLOWS for Investor
• Pays 100 for bond, irrespective of price
• Receives 6m LIBOR + swap spread
• Swap fixed leg payments = coupon payments
• Receives 100 maturity proceeds
• Investor ends up receiving cash flows equivalent to a floating
rate bond with payments equal to LIBOR + swap spread
Counterparty
At inception:
100 – Dirty
Price
Investor
Par/Par Asset Swap: cash flows
at inception and maturity
At inception:
Dirty Price
Bond
At maturity:
100
Par/Par Asset Swap: ongoing
cash flows
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Par/Par Asset Swap - Example
We can now move on to the calculation of Z-spreads
Definition
• The Z-spread is a purely theoretical concept designed to
allow a bond yield to be compared to a swap rate as fairly as
possible
• The Z-spread is defined as the size of the shift in the zero
coupon swap curve such that the present value of a bond’s
cash flows is equal to the bond’s dirty price
• Z-spreads are useful measure of asset swap relative value
Z-spreads
Term Par Swap Rate
Par Swap + Z-
spread (160.7bp)
Bond Cash Flow Present Value
0.5 1.02% 2.63% 2.00% 1.97%
1.0 1.11% 2.72% 2.00% 1.95%
1.5 1.25% 2.85% 2.00% 1.92%
2.0 1.40% 3.01% 2.00% 1.88%
2.5 1.60% 3.21% 2.00% 1.85%
3.0 1.79% 3.41% 2.00% 1.81%
3.5 1.97% 3.60% 2.00% 1.77%
4.0 2.15% 3.79% 2.00% 1.72%
4.5 2.30% 3.94% 2.00% 1.68%
5.0 2.44% 4.09% 102.00% 83.45%
100.00%
Z-Spread Calculation - 4% 5 year GBP bond at Par
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Zero Coupon Swap Curves
as at 5th July, 2010
ZS Swap rate +160.7bp
ZC Swap Rate
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
Discount Factor
DF ZC Swap +160.7
12
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Introduction to Z-spreads
Source: Bloomberg, Redington Source: Bloomberg, Redington
Definition
• As for all swaps, an inflation swap is an OTC agreement where
the counterparties agree to exchange known cash flows for
unknown cash flows
• In the case of inflation swaps a fixed rate is exchanged for
inflation
Characteristics
• A zero coupon inflation swap is an agreement to exchange a
fixed cash flow for an unknown cash flow equal to the change
in the RPI index over the period
Comparison with index-linked bonds
• The direct comparison with index-linked gilts is less
straightforward than for an interest rate swap
Cashflows1
• Example: as at 5th July, 5yr GBP zero coupon inflation swap is
quoted at 3.20%
• After 5 years, Counterparty A pays the change in the RPI
index (= RPI5 /RPI0 ) on swap notional
• After 5 years, Counterparty B pays 3.20%, compounded for 5
years (=1.0325 = 127.7%) on swap notional
Other forms of inflation swap
• There are other forms of inflation swap – for example with
annual inflation linked cash flows
• The ZC swap is the most useful and common form
What is a Zero Coupon Inflation Swap?
THE MATHS1
• Fixed Leg:
• Inflation Leg:
0RPI
RPIn
n
nateZCRPIswapr )1( 
Counterparty B
Fixed RateRPICollateral
Counterparty A
Inflation Swap
Unknown cash flow
=> known cash flow
INFLATION
13
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Introduction of Zero Coupon Inflation Swaps
FIXEDPAYMENT
1For illustration of concepts only: actual calculations require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions, inflation index publication lags & seasonality
which is beyond the scope of this presentation
Key Features
• Index-linked gilt coupons (see chart) and principal payments
are linked to inflation (with a lag)
Real Yields
• The real yield can be calculated in two stages:
o Estimate future coupon and principal payments using
an assumed inflation rate e.g. 3%
o Find the interest rate at which the present value of
these payments is equal to the dirty price (i.e. price
plus accrued)
• Real yield = nominal yield – inflation rate1
• It turns out that the real yield is not very sensitive to small
changes in the assumed inflation rate
ASSET SWAPPING INDEX-LINKED GILTS
• In order to do an asset swap, we need to be able to swap a
fixed rate (i.e. the coupon on a nominal bond) against a floating
rate
• Therefore, asset swapping linkers is a two stage process:
o Swap inflation linked payments to fixed payments using
a series of zero-coupon inflation swaps, one for each
payment
o Swap the fixed payments for floating payments using
interest rate swaps
• The Z-spread is then defined as before – i.e. the parallel shift in
the ZC swap curve such that the present value of the fixed
payments derived above is equal to the dirty price of the bond
Index-Linked Gilts – Real Yields, Asset Swaps and Z-Spreads
0.46%
0.48%
0.50%
0.52%
0.54%
0.56%
0.58%
0.60%
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Years
Index-Linked Gilt Coupons
with 3% Inflation
Inflation adjustment
Stated coupon
1There are other more sophisticated ways to do this calculation
14
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Index-Linked Gilts
Source: Redington – illustrative only
History
• Swap rates exceeded government bond yields
• Key drivers:
o Supply & demand – note 2001 when, in UK, huge
quantities of long dated funding by Telcos bidding for 3G
licences moved swap spreads to >100bp
o Market participation – trend tightening of swap spreads
on back of LDI activity in mid-2000s
o Collateralised counterparty risk on mark-to-market vs.
government risk on coupons and principle
• Banking crisis inverted relationship – new paradigm?
Recent developments
• Banking crisis forced deleverage of bank balance sheets and
extensive de-risking by hedge funds
• Implications
o unwinding of long bond/short swap positions
o natural counterparties to take advantage of dislocation
were the same way around
o relatively large bank holdings of index-linked gilts as
largest source of inflation to hedge inflation swaps
o issuance of inflation linked debt dried up due to issues
with monoline insurers who had wrapped much of this
debt
• Bank balance sheets rapidly delevered – since then, other drivers:
o Sovereign credit risk
o Large budget deficits => massive supply of government
bonds
o Corporate consolidations => little corporate bond supply
What are Drivers of Z-Spreads on Government Bonds?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010
Spread(bps)
France 5Y CDS
Germany 5Y CDS
UK 5Y CDS
US 5Y CDS
15
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Z-spreads on Government Bonds
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
02-Jan-07 02-Jan-08 02-Jan-09 02-Jan-10
UKTI 2.5% 20
UKTI 1.125% 37
UKTI 1.25% 55
Historical Z-Spreads on Index-Linked Gilts
Historical Sovereign Credit Default Swap Rates
Source: Barclays Capital, Redington, Bloomberg
Funded vs. Unfunded Exposure
• Government bonds
o Investing in a government bond results in full credit exposure to the government for both coupons and principal
o In event of default or debt restructuring, coupon and principal payments will be impaired to varying degrees
• A similar consideration applies to corporate bonds
o Balance sheet constraints resulted in corporate bond spreads widening materially more than credit default swap
rates => substantial negative basis
o Liquidity premium
• Interest rate swaps
o Interest rate swaps are unfunded
o The net present value (NPV) or price of a swap is by definition zero at inception
o Counterparty exposure arises as mark-to-market fluctuates through time
o Such exposures are fully collateralised under the terms and conditions of the CSA
o Therefore, for a loss to arise, an adverse market move AND a counterparty default are required simultaneously
o A further consideration is transactions costs associated with replacing the trade in adverse market conditions
What are Drivers of Z-Spreads on Government Bonds - continued?
16
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Z-spreads on Government Bonds (cont.)
• Exactly the same methodology can be used for corporate bond asset swap calculations
o Historically, this is where the bulk of asset swap market activity occurred
o The inversion of the relationship between government bonds and swaps resulted in a
big pick up in activity in government bond asset swaps
What is a corporate bond asset Swap Spread?
Fund
Fixed Rate LIBORCollateral
Swap Counterparty
Corporate Bond
Fixed
Coupons
• Corporate bond exposure is usually
unsecured and uncollateralised
• Fund therefore has default risk
exposure to the corporate bond
• Average recovery rates in default have
historically been assumed to be 40%
but recent experience suggests worse
recovery rates
• Traditionally:
o Credit spread = corporate bond yield – gilt yield
• Corporates treasurers often swap fixed rate issuance back into floating rate, based on a funding
target of LIBOR +x%
o Relative shape of swap curve and gilt curve drive issuance opportunities
• Gilt vs. swap spread a significant driver of gilt vs. corporate spread
OUTCOME
• Market looks at asset swap spreads of corporates
ANALYSIS OF CREDIT SPREADS
• Representing compensation for:
• Default risk – loss of coupons and principal
• Illiquidity
• Risk premium
• Incremental return volatility
• Cost of funding
CONCLUSION
Z-Spreads are Useful Theoretical Model to Enable Comparison of Relative Value of Corporate Bonds
Credit spreads
17
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Corporate Bonds: Swap Spreads and Credit Spreads
Appendix
Overview of Alternative Asset Swap Methods
1
• The table below summarises a range of methods used to calculate asset swap spreads
Asset Swaps – Alternative Methods
Method Definition Yield Curve
Exposure
Directionality Simplicity Use for Relative Value
Yield/Yield • Spread = difference between bond
yield and same maturity swap rate
• Duration weighted
• Spread widens as
curve steepens for
bonds above par
• Convexity not hedged
– therefore hedge ratio
needs adjusting on
large rate moves
• The most simple
ASW method
• Good for flat curves
• Poor for comparing bonds
with very different coupons
in steep curve environment
Par/Par • Spread added to floating leg such that
swap NPV = 100 – Bond dirty price
• Bond bought for par
• Swap fixed leg = bond coupons
• Floating leg notional = bond notional
• For given bond
price, par/par swap
spread falls as swaps
curve steepens
• Par/par spread falls as
yields rise
• Trade not duration
neutral
• Relatively complex
• Widely used,
therefore good
market familiarity
• Spread highly dependent on
dirty price of bond therefore
not idea l for RV use
Market
Value
Accrued
or
Proceeds
• Spread added to floating leg such that
swap NPV = 100 – Bond dirty price
• Bond bought for dirty price
• Swap fixed leg = bond coupons
• Floating leg notional = bond dirty price
• Original dirty price – 100 paid to ASW
buyer at maturity
• For given bond
price, par/par swap
spread falls as swaps
curve steepens
• MVA spread rises as
yields rise
• Trade not duration
neutral
• Hard to estimate
P&L
• Not frequently
trades
• Spread depends on dirty
price of bonds – but not as
much as par/par, especially
for high coupon bonds
• Not widely traded, but
preferred to par/par for RV
calculations
Z - spread • Spread when applied to zero coupon
swap curve such that when used to PV
bond cash flows, results in bond dirty
price
• Some exposure to
changes in relative
steepness of
government and
swap curves
• Not directional • Straightforward to
calculate for most
risk systems
• Generally preferred for
relative value use
Source: Morgan Stanley, “Using and Trading Asset Swaps”, 11th May, 2006
Asset Swaps to Z-spreads
Asset Swaps – Overview of Alternative Methods
Disclaimer For professional investors only. Not suitable for private customers.
The information herein was obtained from various sources. We do not guarantee every aspect of its accuracy. The information is for your private information and is for discussion purposes only. A
variety of market factors and assumptions may affect this analysis, and this analysis does not reflect all possible loss scenarios. There is no certainty that the parameters and assumptions used in this
analysis can be duplicated with actual trades. Any historical exchange rates, interest rates or other reference rates or prices which appear above are not necessarily indicative of future exchange
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Asset Swaps to Z-spreads: Understanding the Z-spread

  • 1. Redington 13-15 Mallow Street London EC1Y 8RD 020 7250 3331 www.redington.co.uk Asset Swaps to Z-spreads RSA House 23rd September, 2010
  • 2. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 02-Jan-07 02-Jan-08 02-Jan-09 02-Jan-10 UKT 4.75% 20 UKT 4.75% 38 UKT 4.25% 55 • Our weekly RedVision report includes charts (such as Figure 1) which show the historical Z-spreads on selected gilts • Historically, nominal and index-linked gilts yields were below nominal and real swap rates respectively • As a result, swaps were a very popular tool used by pension funds to hedge interest rate and inflation risks: o “unfunded” o positive spread to gilts • The historical relationship inverted in Q3 08 – gilt yields rose materially above swap rates • As a result: o presently, longer dated nominal and index-linked gilts are more attractive than swaps for interest rate and inflation hedging o this relationship needs monitoring to ensure that the nest opportunities are captured The Z-spread is a theoretical spread, designed to allow a fair comparison between bond yields and swap rates • In this session, I will introduce the various building blocks necessary to lead to an understanding of the Z-spread: o The swap market; calculation of present values o Zero coupon swaps ; the swap curve and derivation of discount factors o Asset swaps and different methods of asset swapping o Z-spreads o Inflation swaps & index-linked gilts Asset Swaps to Z-spreads: Overview Source: Barclays Capital, Redington, Bloomberg Figure 1: Historical Z-Spreads on Index-Linked Gilts 2 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Overview -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 02-Jan-07 02-Jan-08 02-Jan-09 02-Jan-10 UKTI 2.5% 20 UKTI 1.125% 37 UKTI 1.25% 55 Figure 2: Historical Z-Spreads on Gilts
  • 3. 3
  • 4. Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Introduction to Swaps Definition • A swap is an over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivative transaction where the counterparties agree to exchange cash flows linked to specific market rates for a period of time • One set of cash flows will typically be known – usually expressed as a fixed rate of interest • The other set of cash flows will be unknown – for example, linked to short term rates or inflation • By definition, at the mid-market price, the present value of both sets of cash flows is the same at inception Standardised documentation: • International Swaps and Derivatives Association (“ISDA “) agreement • Collateral governed by Credit Support Annex (“CSA”) Characteristics • An interest rate swap is an agreement to exchange fixed cash flows for variable cash flows for example, 6m LIBOR1 • Cash + swap is very similar to a bond Comparison with bonds • Paying LIBOR, receiving fixed rate: has similar interest rate exposure to buying a bond • Paying fixed rate, receiving LIBOR: has very similar interest rate exposure to being short a bond Cashflows • Example: as at 5th July, 5yr GBP interest rate swap is quoted at 2.44% • Every 6 months, in arrears, Counterparty A pays 6m LIBOR on swap notional • Every 6 months, in arrears, Counterparty B pays 2.44% (at annual rate) on swap notional • See slide 6 for details Recap – What is a Swap? Counterparty B Fixed RateLIBORCollateral Counterparty A Figure 2: Interest Rate Swap 1London Interbank Offered Rate – the average calculated at 11:00am each day using a trimmed arithmetic mean (i.e. average after dropping the top and bottom quartiles), based on submissions from a panel of contributor banks 4 Counterparty B Fixed RateLIBORCollateral Counterparty A Figure 3: Cash plus Interest Rate Swap CASH LIBOR LIBOR legs cancel out leaving Counterparty B receiving a fixed rate
  • 5. Recap – Calculation of Present Values; Discount Factors1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10 Present Value of 100 in 10 Years at Different Discount Rates 7.5% 5.0% INTEREST RATE: i % PERIOD: n years PRESENT VALUE OF 1: This is also known as the “discount factor” n i)1( 1  5 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Present Values and Discount Factors 1Present value and discount factor calculations for bonds and swaps require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions which is beyond the scope of this presentation
  • 6. 6 Interest Rate Swap Cashflows • All future cash flows on the fixed leg are known at inception • LIBOR leg payments are unknown • Forward LIBOR payments can be derived from the interest rate swap curve (see page 9) • Discount factors can also be derived for each payment date from the swap curve (see page 9) • BY DEFINITION, the present value of the fixed leg is equal to the present value of the floating leg at the time of the transaction • Fixed rate weighted average of forward LIBOR rates over life of swap What is a Swap? Example: Cash Flows on a 5 year GBP Interest Rate Swap LIBOR payments - unknown Fixed payments Periodic exchange of cash flows for life of transaction Date Discount Factor Cash Flow Present Value Cash Flow Present Value 07 Jan 11 0.99486 1.23% 1.22% 0.52% 0.51% 07 Jul 11 0.98896 1.21% 1.20% 0.60% 0.59% 09 Jan 12 0.98153 1.24% 1.22% 0.76% 0.74% 09 Jul 12 0.97235 1.22% 1.18% 0.94% 0.92% 07 Jan 13 0.96084 1.22% 1.17% 1.20% 1.15% 08 Jul 13 0.94771 1.22% 1.15% 1.38% 1.31% 07 Jan 14 0.93308 1.22% 1.14% 1.57% 1.46% 07 Jul 14 0.91730 1.21% 1.11% 1.72% 1.58% 07 Jan 15 0.90114 1.23% 1.11% 1.79% 1.62% 07 Jul 15 0.88439 1.21% 1.07% 1.89% 1.68% Total 11.56% Total 11.56% Example: 5year GBP Interest Rate Swap @ 2.44% Fixed Leg Floating Leg 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Example: 5year GBP Interest Rate Swap @ 2.44% Fixed Leg Floating Leg Source: Bloomberg, Redington Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Interest Rate Swap Example  Source: Bloomberg, Redington
  • 7. ZC Interest Rate Swap Cashflows • As for a par swap, which has semi-annual payments, payments on a ZC swap are linked to periodic 6m LIBOR rates and a fixed rate • However, instead of semi-annual exchange of cash flows, payments are compounded and exchanged at maturity • Any desired cash flow profile can be structured using zero coupon swaps • Zero coupon swap curve is very useful tool for calculating present value of any series of future cash flows • A key advantage is that it takes account of the shape of the swap curve and uses a term specific rate for each cash flow • The discount factor is derived from the zero coupon swap rate (see box) What is a Zero Coupon (ZC) Swap? LIBOR payments - unknown Fixed payments Single exchange of cash flows at end of transaction THE MATHS1 • Fixed Leg: • Floating leg: • Discount factor: )1( 1   n i iLIBOR n ZCswaprate)1(  n ZCswaprate   )1( 7 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Introduction to Zero Coupon Swaps 1For illustration of concepts only: actual calculations require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions, which is beyond the scope of this presentation
  • 8. • Comparison of swaps vs. bonds: • Bonds: each coupon payment and the maturity proceeds are discounted using a single rate – the bond yield – in order to obtain the dirty price • Swaps: each cash flow discounted at a rate determined by the date on which it falls due SWAP CURVES • A par swap rate is the rate on the fixed leg of a “vanilla” interest rate swap for the relevant maturity • Swap rates are available for any given maturity – however, liquidity and transparency is greatest for whole number of years maturity dates • Zero coupon rates differ slightly from par swap rates Discount Rates and Swap Curves Term Par Swap Rate Forward 6m LIBOR Rate Implied Zero Coupon Swap Rate Implied Zero Coupon Discount Factor 0.5 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 0.9949 1.0 1.11% 1.20% 1.12% 0.9890 1.5 1.25% 1.49% 1.24% 0.9815 2.0 1.40% 1.89% 1.41% 0.9723 2.5 1.60% 2.40% 1.61% 0.9608 3.0 1.79% 2.78% 1.80% 0.9477 3.5 1.97% 3.13% 1.99% 0.9331 4.0 2.15% 3.47% 2.18% 0.9173 4.5 2.30% 3.56% 2.34% 0.9011 5.0 2.44% 3.82% 2.49% 0.8844 Term Structure of Interest Rates Derivation of Forward LIBOR & ZC Discount Factors 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Par and Zero Coupon Swap Curves as at 5th July, 2010 ZC Swap Rate Par Swap Rate 8 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Discount Rates and Swap Curves Source: Bloomberg, Redington
  • 9. • The dark blue bars in the chart below show the semi-annual fixed rate payments (expressed as annual rate) on a 1 year swap: 1.11% • The first light blue bar is the 6m par swap rate: 1.02% • As this swap has just one cash flow, the par rate is, by definition, identical to the ZC swap rate • The second light blue bar and the 1 year ZC discount rate are derived from the fact that the present value of the light blue cash flows must be the same as the PV of the dark blue cash flows • We find this comes to 1.20% • Similar methods are applied to find each subsequent forward LIBOR rate and hence each zero coupon swap rate Derivation of Discount Factor from Swap Curve Term Par Swap Rate Forward 6m LIBOR Rate Implied Zero Coupon Swap Rate Implied Zero Coupon Discount Factor 0.5 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 0.9949 1.0 1.11% 1.20% 1.12% 0.9890 1.5 1.25% 1.49% 1.24% 0.9815 2.0 1.40% 1.89% 1.41% 0.9723 2.5 1.60% 2.40% 1.61% 0.9608 3.0 1.79% 2.78% 1.80% 0.9477 3.5 1.97% 3.13% 1.99% 0.9331 4.0 2.15% 3.47% 2.18% 0.9173 4.5 2.30% 3.56% 2.34% 0.9011 5.0 2.44% 3.82% 2.49% 0.8844 Term Structure of Interest Rates Derivation of Forward LIBOR & ZC Discount Factors 9 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Derivation of Discount Factors THE MATHS1 • Present value of 1 year par swap fixed leg payments = present value of spot 6m LIBOR plus present value of 6m LIBOR 6m forward • For zero coupon swaps, payment at maturity = compounded LIBOR leg – therefore: • These two equations can be combined to calculate DF1 and LIBOR1 • The same process can them be applied to calculate DF1.5 and LIBOR1.5 in a process known as “bootstrapping” 115.05.0115.01 DFLIBORDFLIBORDFParSwapDFParSwap  )5.01()5.01( 1 )5.01( 1 15.0 2 1 1 LIBORLIBORZCswaprate DF     1For illustration of concepts only: actual calculations require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions, which is beyond the scope of this presentation Source: Bloomberg, Redington Source: Bloomberg, Redington
  • 10. 1 What is an Asset Swap? Counterparty Fixed Rate6m LIBOR Collateral Investor Simplified Asset Swap Coupons Bond (assume at par) Overview • An asset swap is a derivative transaction that results in a change in the form of future cash flows generated by an asset • In the bond markets, asset swaps typically take fixed cash flows on a bond and exchange them for LIBOR (i.e. floating rate payments) • ASSET SWAP = BOND + INTEREST RATE SWAP Motivations for asset swapping BOND BUYER • Separation of interest rate and credit spread views: by removing interest rate exposure, remaining exposure is only to credit spreads • Better matching of liability cash flows BORROWER • Fixed coupon bonds can be issued to meet demand, whereas treasury management may prefer floating rate liabilities Simplified asset swap • Buy bond at par • Enter into interest rate swap with maturity matching bond • Swap spread = bond yield – swap rate Simplest “real world” asset swap • Buy bond (price above or below par) • Enter into interest rate swap with maturity matching bond • Choose swap notional to duration weight • Swap spread = bond yield – swap rate ASSUMPTIONS • Bond priced at par • Swap notional = bond notional • Swap payment dates = bond coupon payment dates NET CASH FLOWS for Investor • Pays 100 for bond • Receives 6m LIBOR • Receives (Coupon/Bond Yield – Swap Fixed Rate) • Receives 100 maturity proceeds • If the bond coupon (yield) is above the swap rate, Investor ends up receiving cash flows equivalent to a floating rate bond with payments equal to LIBOR + swap spread Bond Interest Rate Swap Asset Swap Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Introduction to Asset Swaps
  • 11. 1 What is an Asset Swap? Example: Par/Par Asset Swap Counterparty Fixed Rate = Coupon 6m LIBOR +/- Spread Collateral Investor Coupons Bond Overview • One of several methods to address problem of bond prices departing from par • The “pull to par” is effectively amortised over the life of the bond: o For bonds below par, yield > coupon o For bonds above par, yield < coupon Method • Fixed leg of interest rate swap exactly matches the bond coupons • For a high coupon: o Bond price above par o Fixed leg will be worth more than the fixed leg of an interest rate swap at market rates • For a low coupon o Bond price below par o Fixed leg will be worth less than the fixed leg of an interest rate swap at market rates • The difference between the coupon and the swap market rate is offset against the amortisation of the discount or premium vs. par The net result is the Swap spread which is added to LIBOR leg • To recap: • Part of the swap spread is amortisation of bond discount or premium vs. par • Remainder of swap spread is difference between bond coupon rate and interest swap rate ASSUMPTIONS • Investor pays par for bond • Swap notional = bond notional • Swap payment dates = bond coupon payment dates NET CASH FLOWS for Investor • Pays 100 for bond, irrespective of price • Receives 6m LIBOR + swap spread • Swap fixed leg payments = coupon payments • Receives 100 maturity proceeds • Investor ends up receiving cash flows equivalent to a floating rate bond with payments equal to LIBOR + swap spread Counterparty At inception: 100 – Dirty Price Investor Par/Par Asset Swap: cash flows at inception and maturity At inception: Dirty Price Bond At maturity: 100 Par/Par Asset Swap: ongoing cash flows Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Par/Par Asset Swap - Example
  • 12. We can now move on to the calculation of Z-spreads Definition • The Z-spread is a purely theoretical concept designed to allow a bond yield to be compared to a swap rate as fairly as possible • The Z-spread is defined as the size of the shift in the zero coupon swap curve such that the present value of a bond’s cash flows is equal to the bond’s dirty price • Z-spreads are useful measure of asset swap relative value Z-spreads Term Par Swap Rate Par Swap + Z- spread (160.7bp) Bond Cash Flow Present Value 0.5 1.02% 2.63% 2.00% 1.97% 1.0 1.11% 2.72% 2.00% 1.95% 1.5 1.25% 2.85% 2.00% 1.92% 2.0 1.40% 3.01% 2.00% 1.88% 2.5 1.60% 3.21% 2.00% 1.85% 3.0 1.79% 3.41% 2.00% 1.81% 3.5 1.97% 3.60% 2.00% 1.77% 4.0 2.15% 3.79% 2.00% 1.72% 4.5 2.30% 3.94% 2.00% 1.68% 5.0 2.44% 4.09% 102.00% 83.45% 100.00% Z-Spread Calculation - 4% 5 year GBP bond at Par 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Zero Coupon Swap Curves as at 5th July, 2010 ZS Swap rate +160.7bp ZC Swap Rate 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 Discount Factor DF ZC Swap +160.7 12 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Introduction to Z-spreads Source: Bloomberg, Redington Source: Bloomberg, Redington
  • 13. Definition • As for all swaps, an inflation swap is an OTC agreement where the counterparties agree to exchange known cash flows for unknown cash flows • In the case of inflation swaps a fixed rate is exchanged for inflation Characteristics • A zero coupon inflation swap is an agreement to exchange a fixed cash flow for an unknown cash flow equal to the change in the RPI index over the period Comparison with index-linked bonds • The direct comparison with index-linked gilts is less straightforward than for an interest rate swap Cashflows1 • Example: as at 5th July, 5yr GBP zero coupon inflation swap is quoted at 3.20% • After 5 years, Counterparty A pays the change in the RPI index (= RPI5 /RPI0 ) on swap notional • After 5 years, Counterparty B pays 3.20%, compounded for 5 years (=1.0325 = 127.7%) on swap notional Other forms of inflation swap • There are other forms of inflation swap – for example with annual inflation linked cash flows • The ZC swap is the most useful and common form What is a Zero Coupon Inflation Swap? THE MATHS1 • Fixed Leg: • Inflation Leg: 0RPI RPIn n nateZCRPIswapr )1(  Counterparty B Fixed RateRPICollateral Counterparty A Inflation Swap Unknown cash flow => known cash flow INFLATION 13 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Introduction of Zero Coupon Inflation Swaps FIXEDPAYMENT 1For illustration of concepts only: actual calculations require detailed knowledge of day count and compounding conventions, inflation index publication lags & seasonality which is beyond the scope of this presentation
  • 14. Key Features • Index-linked gilt coupons (see chart) and principal payments are linked to inflation (with a lag) Real Yields • The real yield can be calculated in two stages: o Estimate future coupon and principal payments using an assumed inflation rate e.g. 3% o Find the interest rate at which the present value of these payments is equal to the dirty price (i.e. price plus accrued) • Real yield = nominal yield – inflation rate1 • It turns out that the real yield is not very sensitive to small changes in the assumed inflation rate ASSET SWAPPING INDEX-LINKED GILTS • In order to do an asset swap, we need to be able to swap a fixed rate (i.e. the coupon on a nominal bond) against a floating rate • Therefore, asset swapping linkers is a two stage process: o Swap inflation linked payments to fixed payments using a series of zero-coupon inflation swaps, one for each payment o Swap the fixed payments for floating payments using interest rate swaps • The Z-spread is then defined as before – i.e. the parallel shift in the ZC swap curve such that the present value of the fixed payments derived above is equal to the dirty price of the bond Index-Linked Gilts – Real Yields, Asset Swaps and Z-Spreads 0.46% 0.48% 0.50% 0.52% 0.54% 0.56% 0.58% 0.60% 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Years Index-Linked Gilt Coupons with 3% Inflation Inflation adjustment Stated coupon 1There are other more sophisticated ways to do this calculation 14 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Index-Linked Gilts Source: Redington – illustrative only
  • 15. History • Swap rates exceeded government bond yields • Key drivers: o Supply & demand – note 2001 when, in UK, huge quantities of long dated funding by Telcos bidding for 3G licences moved swap spreads to >100bp o Market participation – trend tightening of swap spreads on back of LDI activity in mid-2000s o Collateralised counterparty risk on mark-to-market vs. government risk on coupons and principle • Banking crisis inverted relationship – new paradigm? Recent developments • Banking crisis forced deleverage of bank balance sheets and extensive de-risking by hedge funds • Implications o unwinding of long bond/short swap positions o natural counterparties to take advantage of dislocation were the same way around o relatively large bank holdings of index-linked gilts as largest source of inflation to hedge inflation swaps o issuance of inflation linked debt dried up due to issues with monoline insurers who had wrapped much of this debt • Bank balance sheets rapidly delevered – since then, other drivers: o Sovereign credit risk o Large budget deficits => massive supply of government bonds o Corporate consolidations => little corporate bond supply What are Drivers of Z-Spreads on Government Bonds? 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Spread(bps) France 5Y CDS Germany 5Y CDS UK 5Y CDS US 5Y CDS 15 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Z-spreads on Government Bonds -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 02-Jan-07 02-Jan-08 02-Jan-09 02-Jan-10 UKTI 2.5% 20 UKTI 1.125% 37 UKTI 1.25% 55 Historical Z-Spreads on Index-Linked Gilts Historical Sovereign Credit Default Swap Rates Source: Barclays Capital, Redington, Bloomberg
  • 16. Funded vs. Unfunded Exposure • Government bonds o Investing in a government bond results in full credit exposure to the government for both coupons and principal o In event of default or debt restructuring, coupon and principal payments will be impaired to varying degrees • A similar consideration applies to corporate bonds o Balance sheet constraints resulted in corporate bond spreads widening materially more than credit default swap rates => substantial negative basis o Liquidity premium • Interest rate swaps o Interest rate swaps are unfunded o The net present value (NPV) or price of a swap is by definition zero at inception o Counterparty exposure arises as mark-to-market fluctuates through time o Such exposures are fully collateralised under the terms and conditions of the CSA o Therefore, for a loss to arise, an adverse market move AND a counterparty default are required simultaneously o A further consideration is transactions costs associated with replacing the trade in adverse market conditions What are Drivers of Z-Spreads on Government Bonds - continued? 16 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Z-spreads on Government Bonds (cont.)
  • 17. • Exactly the same methodology can be used for corporate bond asset swap calculations o Historically, this is where the bulk of asset swap market activity occurred o The inversion of the relationship between government bonds and swaps resulted in a big pick up in activity in government bond asset swaps What is a corporate bond asset Swap Spread? Fund Fixed Rate LIBORCollateral Swap Counterparty Corporate Bond Fixed Coupons • Corporate bond exposure is usually unsecured and uncollateralised • Fund therefore has default risk exposure to the corporate bond • Average recovery rates in default have historically been assumed to be 40% but recent experience suggests worse recovery rates • Traditionally: o Credit spread = corporate bond yield – gilt yield • Corporates treasurers often swap fixed rate issuance back into floating rate, based on a funding target of LIBOR +x% o Relative shape of swap curve and gilt curve drive issuance opportunities • Gilt vs. swap spread a significant driver of gilt vs. corporate spread OUTCOME • Market looks at asset swap spreads of corporates ANALYSIS OF CREDIT SPREADS • Representing compensation for: • Default risk – loss of coupons and principal • Illiquidity • Risk premium • Incremental return volatility • Cost of funding CONCLUSION Z-Spreads are Useful Theoretical Model to Enable Comparison of Relative Value of Corporate Bonds Credit spreads 17 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Corporate Bonds: Swap Spreads and Credit Spreads
  • 18. Appendix Overview of Alternative Asset Swap Methods
  • 19. 1 • The table below summarises a range of methods used to calculate asset swap spreads Asset Swaps – Alternative Methods Method Definition Yield Curve Exposure Directionality Simplicity Use for Relative Value Yield/Yield • Spread = difference between bond yield and same maturity swap rate • Duration weighted • Spread widens as curve steepens for bonds above par • Convexity not hedged – therefore hedge ratio needs adjusting on large rate moves • The most simple ASW method • Good for flat curves • Poor for comparing bonds with very different coupons in steep curve environment Par/Par • Spread added to floating leg such that swap NPV = 100 – Bond dirty price • Bond bought for par • Swap fixed leg = bond coupons • Floating leg notional = bond notional • For given bond price, par/par swap spread falls as swaps curve steepens • Par/par spread falls as yields rise • Trade not duration neutral • Relatively complex • Widely used, therefore good market familiarity • Spread highly dependent on dirty price of bond therefore not idea l for RV use Market Value Accrued or Proceeds • Spread added to floating leg such that swap NPV = 100 – Bond dirty price • Bond bought for dirty price • Swap fixed leg = bond coupons • Floating leg notional = bond dirty price • Original dirty price – 100 paid to ASW buyer at maturity • For given bond price, par/par swap spread falls as swaps curve steepens • MVA spread rises as yields rise • Trade not duration neutral • Hard to estimate P&L • Not frequently trades • Spread depends on dirty price of bonds – but not as much as par/par, especially for high coupon bonds • Not widely traded, but preferred to par/par for RV calculations Z - spread • Spread when applied to zero coupon swap curve such that when used to PV bond cash flows, results in bond dirty price • Some exposure to changes in relative steepness of government and swap curves • Not directional • Straightforward to calculate for most risk systems • Generally preferred for relative value use Source: Morgan Stanley, “Using and Trading Asset Swaps”, 11th May, 2006 Asset Swaps to Z-spreads Asset Swaps – Overview of Alternative Methods
  • 20. Disclaimer For professional investors only. Not suitable for private customers. The information herein was obtained from various sources. We do not guarantee every aspect of its accuracy. The information is for your private information and is for discussion purposes only. A variety of market factors and assumptions may affect this analysis, and this analysis does not reflect all possible loss scenarios. There is no certainty that the parameters and assumptions used in this analysis can be duplicated with actual trades. Any historical exchange rates, interest rates or other reference rates or prices which appear above are not necessarily indicative of future exchange rates, interest rates, or other reference rates or prices. Neither the information, recommendations or opinions expressed herein constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, or investment products on your behalf. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information in this message is indicative only, is subject to change and is not an offer to transact. Where relevant, the price quoted is exclusive of tax and delivery costs. Any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as preliminary and subject to further due diligence . Please note, the accurate calculation of the liability profile used as the basis for implementing any capital markets transactions is the sole responsibility of the Trustees' actuarial advisors. Redington Ltd will estimate the liabilities if required but will not be held responsible for any loss or damage howsoever sustained as a result of inaccuracies in that estimation. Additionally, the client recognizes that Redington Ltd does not owe any party a duty of care in this respect. Redington Ltd are investment consultants regulated by the Financial Services Authority. We do not advise on all implications of the transactions described herein. This information is for discussion purposes and prior to undertaking any trade, you should also discuss with your professional tax, accounting and / or other relevant advisers how such particular trade(s) affect you. All analysis (whether in respect of tax, accounting, law or of any other nature), should be treated as illustrative only and not relied upon as accurate. Redington Limited (reg no 6660006) is a company authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and registered in England and Wales. Registered office: 13-15 Mallow Street London EC1Y 8RD THE DESTINATION FOR ASSET & LIABILITY MANAGEMENT Contacts 20 Direct Line: +44 (0) 20 3326 7147 Telephone: +44 (0) 20 7250 3331 Redington 13-15 Mallow Street London EC1Y 8RD David Bennett Director | Investment Consulting david.bennett@redington.co.uk www.redington.co.uk Contacts Disclaimer