1. Talent Dividend Metrics
A Progress Report
Joe Cortright
April 2010
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
2. Roadmap
1. The Talent Dividend Calculation
2. Four Key Metrics
3. Years of Post Secondary Education
4. Dynamics: Migration, Retirement
5. Next Steps
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
6. The Hypothesis
• Better educated metropolitan areas have
higher incomes
• Better skilled workers are more innovative
and productive
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
7. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Austin-Round Rock, TX
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
Denver-Aurora, CO
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-
Baltimore-Tow son, MD
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI
Columbus, OH
Kansas City, MO-KS
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
Richmond, VA
Rochester, NY
Salt Lake City, UT
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Milw aukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
St. Louis, MO-IL
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytow n, TX
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Pittsburgh, PA
Cincinnati-Middletow n, OH-KY-IN
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-New port New s, VA-NC Four Year College
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Oklahoma City, OK
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
Attainment Rate
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
Jacksonville, FL
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL
San Antonio, TX
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Working DraftRiverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
/ Subject to Revision / April 2010
8. The Evidence
Education Explains Most Differences in Metro Income
Annual Per Capita Income, 2005
NY
$50,000
$48,000
SEA
$46,000 HAR DEN
MIN
PHI
$44,000 HOU BAL
SAN y = 763.27x + 16466
CHI R2 = 0.5846
$42,000 MIA
NO DAL
LA
MIL
$40,000 PIT
LV DET RIC
CHA
NASIND
STL
BIR PRI SAC KC
JAC
CLE
$38,000 CIN POR
RAL
LOU ROC COL ATL AUS
MEMTPA OKC
$36,000 VB SLC
PHO
BUF
$34,000 SAT ORL
$32,000
$30,000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)
9. Estimating the Gain
• Each 1% improvement in college
attainment is associated with a $763
increase in per capita income for the entire
metropolitan area
• These education gains are the product of
a shift in the entire skill distribution, not
just moving 1% past the 4 year mark
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
10. Make progress at every stage
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
11. Additional Evidence for the Talent
Dividend
• President’s Council of Economic Advisors
• Unemployment Rate Differential in the
Great Recession
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
12. Educational Gains Stagnating
For decades, the number
of educated American
workers grew faster
than did the demand for
them. But beginning with
the cohort that completed
its schooling in the early
1970s, the growth rate in
the supply of educated
Americans slowed
significantly.
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
13. Least well educated metros have
highest unemployment rates
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
14. “Social Returns” to Education
Ed Glaeser: Well-educated metro’s had lower unemployment rates than
explained by individual educational attainment. Poorly educated metros had
unemployment rates 1.8 times higher than explained by individual levels of
education.
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
15. 2. Metrics for improving
attainment
• High School Completion
• College Continuation
• Adult Post-Secondary Education
• College Completion
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
16. Different Sources of Data
– Institutional
• Enrollment records
• Generated by schools
• Aggregated by others (NCES, NCHEMS, NSC)
– Population
• Survey data
• Gathered by Census Bureau
• Covers entire population; sampling variability
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
17. Institutional Measures
• Administrative records from educational
institutions
– Diplomas, Enrollment
• Reported to and aggregated by national
organizations
– NCES, National Student Clearinghouse
• High coverage/ Can drill down; but can be
vague and anomalous
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
18. High School Completion
• Cumulative Promotion Index
• Product of high school grade level success
rates:
– [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th)
% x (12th to Diploma %)]
• If 90% are promoted each year
– CPI= .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65.1%
• Computed from NCES data
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
19. High School Graduation Rates
(CPI Method)
WAS
CIN
PDX
DET
SAC
IND
NY
BAL PHI
MEM RIC KC
VBN RAL ROC
HOU RIV DEN NAS
ATL OKC LOU MIL
SLC AUS STL SDO
JFL BIR CLE SEA
TSP LA SJO DFW CHI MSP
PHX LV MIA CHA ORL COL SAT SFO BUF
35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85%
Source: Computed from NCES/CCD
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
20. College Completion
• Institutions report 6-year graduation rate
for four-year institutions
• Data reported by institutions, tabulated by
IPEDS
• We sum by metro area, weighting
institutional rates by enrollment for four-
year institutions.
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
21. College Graduation Rates
SDO
COL
LA
SEA
RIC SAC
STL ORL
ATL CLE ROC
JFL BUF AUS
TSP NAS BOS
MIA VBN BAL
PDX RIV PHI
OKC CIN HAR
DFW NY RAL
DET NOLA CHA PIT
SLC IND BIR PRO
MEM LOU MIL SFO
LV KC CHI SAT
PHX HOU DEN WAS MSP SJO
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Source: Computed from IPEDS
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
23. Population Measures
• Data from American Community Survey
• Two Questions:
– Attendance
– Attainment
• Asked of 1% Sample Annually
• Use 3-year 2006-2008 pooled sample
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
26. The ACS
Attainment
Question
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
27. High School Completion (on time)
• What percent of 19 year olds report having
received a high school diploma or GED?
• Census question makes no distinction
between diploma and GED
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
28. College Continuation
• What proportion of 18 to 24 year olds who
have completed high school are enrolled
in college?
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
29. College Enrollment
Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending Post-Secondary Education
SAT
PDX
CHA
HOU
MEM LA SJO
TSP CIN ROC
SEA CLE NAS BUF
SLC SDO WAS PIT
IND BAL MIL PRO
DFW RIC STL HAR
LOU SAC OKC COL
KC BIR MIA AUS
PHX ORL DET PHI
JFL VBN NOLA CHI SFO RAL
LV DEN RIV ATL MSP NY BOS
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
30. Adult Post-Secondary Education
• What proportion of 25-44 year olds, who
have completed high school, but do not
have a bachelor’s degree, attended
college classes?
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
31. Adult Enrollment and Age
Enrollment Declines with Age
Percent of Persons with Less than a BA Degree Attending College Classes, by Age
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
Attending College Classes
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2
R = 0.983
0.0%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Age
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
32. Adult Post-Secondary Attendance
25 to 44 Year Olds with No Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes
RIC
KC LA
PRO TSP
PHX RAL
PIT RIV
MIL LOU ORL
ROC BOS CHI SEA PDX
NY PHI HOU COL MIA SAT SJO
DFW NAS ATL AUS HAR CLE WAS OKC
NOLA CHA CIN MSP STL JFL BAL SLC VBN
LV BIR BUF DEN IND MEM DET SFO SDO SAC
5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
33. College Completion
• What percent of 24 year olds report having
received a four-year college degree?
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
34. College Completion
24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or higher
CHA
BOS
ROC
IND
OKC
BAL
DEN
ATL
PRO
SEA
CLE CHI
SDO CIN MIL
DFW PDX HAR BUF
DET RIC BIR MSP
SAC TSP ORL NAS NY
LV PHX LA STL COL
SAT NOLA MEM SJO PHI
SLC HOU MIA SFO PIT
RIV VBN JFL LOU AUS KC WAS RAL
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
35. Making Use of the Data
• Where am is my region strong and weak?
• Who is doing better that I might learn
from?
• Are there special conditions that affect
local performance?
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
36. Years of Post-Secondary Education
• Four-year degree attainment rate is too
simple to capture the “size” of the Talent
Dividend challenge
• How much additional education is needed
to raise the attanment rate?
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
38. YPSE Weights
Value Years of PSE
High school graduate, or Less 0
Some college, less than 1 year .5
One or more years of college but no degree 1.2
Associate degree 2
Bachelor's degree 4
Master's degree 5
Professional degree 5
Doctorate degree 7
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
39. YPSE v. 4 year attainment
Years of Post-Secondary Education Correlates with BA Attainment
y = 0.2097x - 0.0634
2
R = 0.9763
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
BA Attainment Rate
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
YPSE: Years of Post-Secondary Education
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
40. How much effort?
• Years of Post-Secondary Education
• Portland: About 100,000 person years of
additional post-secondary education to
raise the four-year college attainment rate
by 1 percentage point.
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
41. Adding Dynamics
• Our talent measures are “snapshots”
• We need to account for movement in and
out of the working population
• Movement in time: Retirements
• Movement in space: Migration
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
42. Dynamics
• Migration
– Workers are constantly moving in and out of
every metropolitan area
• Retirement
– Young people are entering the labor force
– Older workers are reaching retirement age
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
43. Migration
• About 2.7 million working age persons with
four-year degrees move to a different
metropolitan area each year
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
44. Talent Migration *
Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults with a Four-year Degree
PHI
CHI JFL
MIL BAL LOU SLC
PRO CIN VBN DFW TSP
NY BUF SFO PIT PDX
HAR IND WAS ATL PHX
ROC BOS NAS SDO SAT RAL
MEM ORL COL SJO HOU CHA LV
NOLA DET LA MSP KC RIC SAC RIV SEA AUS
-1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5%
* Not adjusted for international out-migration
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
45. Retirement:
Boomer Talent Exodus
Number of College Educated Leaving Will More than Double
1,400,000
1,200,000
College Educated Persons Turning 65
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
46. Retirement Rate Rising Everywhere
ATL
AUS
CHA
RAL
IND
COL
MSP
MIL
DFW
MEM
NAS
BOS Next Five Years
KC
CHI
DEN Last Five Years
DET
SEA
PRO
BIR
PDX
SJO
HOU
CIN
NY
PHI
RIC
PIT
WAS
VBN
STL
SLC
LOU
BAL
NOL
HAR
SFO
BUF
CLE
LA Percent of Working Aged Adults with
ORL a Four-Year Degree or Higher
SDO
OKC
JFL Reaching Retirement Age
SAT
SAC
RIV
ROC
PHX
MIA
TSP
LV
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
% BA+ Reaching Retirement
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
47. • Career counseling – getting employers involved in
supporting college career paths
• Social marketing
• How to account for non-traditional, part-time students
• Value of liberal arts in synergy with vocational
• 2 and 4-year institutions working together; also
reconciling data on 2-yr 4-yr grad rates
• Long term pipeline balance with short term results of TD
• Race and ethnicity; come up with better language
• Tension between TD as initiative and goal; define short-
term strategies to help get big-wins; speed as theme with
prototyping as strategy
• Compounding value of doing the 1%
• Where are the gaps that business community should
take on.
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
49. Typical Improvement
• Can we move Portland (33.3% college
attainment to the same level as
• San Diego (34.2%) or Atlanta (34.6%)
college attainment?
• The Portland Talent Dividend
$1.6 Billion Annually
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
50. Share of 18 to 24 Year Olds Attending College
Percent of 18 to 24 year old residents enrolled in college
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Raleigh-Durham
Portland
Las Vegas
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010