1. Exit polls: Good support for Santorum, Romney in Mississippi, Alabama
(CNN) -- Early exit poll data indicated Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney may have done well in
the Alabama and Mississippi GOP presidential primaries Tuesday, outcomes that would
dent the hopes of Newt Gingrich, whose only victories so far have come in the South.
The data showed the three candidates in tight races in both states. In Alabama, exit polls showed
Santorum with 34% support from people who were polled after voting, with Romney
at 29%, Gingrich at 28% and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 6%.
In Mississippi, exit polls had Romney with 33% support, with Santorum at 31%, Gingrich at 30%
and Paul at 5%.
A win down South for Romney, the front-runner in the GOP contests nationwide so far, would
finally give him a victory in a region dominated by social conservatives, who have
been hesitant to support his candidacy.
Gingrich, the former House speaker, was under the most pressure to take both states. He has won
contests in South Carolina and Georgia, which he represented in Congress for two
decades, but has finished third or worse in most contests outside the region.
Election night live blog
Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, is coming off a big win in Kansas on Saturday but
would give himself a bigger boost in the battle to be the conservative
alternative to Romney if he could beat Gingrich on his home turf. A victory would go against
expectations, because polls released Monday showed Santorum running 8 to 10 points
behind Romney and Gingrich.
Mississippi and Alabama polls were closed by 8 p.m. ET. Hawaii and American Samoa also hold
caucuses Tuesday.
Forty-seven delegates are up for grabs in Alabama, with 37 at stake in Mississippi, all being
divided proportionally. Both states hold open primaries, which mean Republicans,
independent voters and Democrats can cast ballots in the GOP contests. Seventeen delegates are to
be allocated in Hawaii and nine in American Samoa.
McCain: 'Romney will win the South' Romney: Santorum at end of campaign Saltsman: Gingrich
has a lot to lose Looking ahead at Alabama and Mississippi
Delegate tracker | Delegate calculator
Gingrich has campaigned intensively in Alabama and Mississippi over the last week.
"He's got to do extremely well in Alabama and Mississippi just to stay in the race," Alabama
Republican Party Chairman Bill Armistead said on CNN's "Starting Point" Tuesday
morning.
On Monday night, a top Gingrich adviser wouldn't predict victory, saying only that her candidate
was "competitive" in the races.

2. "There's no must-win state, there's a must-win election this year. And the place that Newt can
really win and we see it in our polling also is on the debate stage with Barack
Obama," Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway said.
Romney also downplayed expectations. Speaking to reporters in Missouri, where he was
campaigning ahead of this month's caucuses there, he said he expected to take about a third
of the 84 delegates up for grabs in Alabama and Mississippi.
"If that's the case, why, that inches us closer to that magic number," Romney said.
Romney's campaign has been holding up its large lead in delegates as a reason for Gingrich and
Santorum to get out of the race.
Romney is far short of the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination -- he holds a 459-203
lead over Santorum, with Gingrich at 118 and Paul at 66, according to a CNN
delegate estimate.
Another GOP strategist said he sees the delegate race as evidence that Santorum's hopes are
dimming.
"Given how far behind Santorum is from Romney with delegates, it looks like that path continues
to dim every day, which is very challenging for his campaign to overcome, because
they now need to get 65% of the delegates that are still available, and so that path probably doesn't
exist, and if it does exist, then it needs to start with real wins and big
wins in a hurry," said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and a former communications director for the
Republican National Committee.
What's at stake in Southern primaries? Ala. GOP chairman talks state primary Nosef: Miss.
primary will be close race Gingrich's daughter on southern strategy
But Santorum spokeswoman Alice Stewart said Romney's mathematics argument is "not very
inspiring."
"What he is doing is, they have put out memos and talked about the fact it would be
mathematically impossible for Rick Santorum to come out ahead in this fight, when the truth
is that's nothing more than a smoke screen to demonstrate the fact that he is not inspiring the base.
He is not in touch with conservatives," Stewart told CNN's "AC360°."
"What we are letting folks know today is the math is still a long way out. Rick is the true
conservative in this race. He is inspiring the base. And that's why he has got Mitt
Romney up against the ropes."
A leading Republican strategist said Romney could be the real winner on Tuesday night.
"I continue to think this is fundamentally about a delegate fight, so I'm reluctant to talk about
momentum as an important story. But I do think there is a momentum story that
could emerge after Alabama and Mississippi if Romney overperforms," said Gentry Collins, a
former political director for the Republican National Committee and the Republican

3. Governors Association.
"Much has been written about Romney's weakness in Southern state contests, and Santorum and
especially Gingrich have used a Southern strategy as a basis for arguing they had a
pathway to the nomination. On Super Tuesday, Romney took as many delegates out of the
Southern states as anyone else. But that story was offset because Gingrich and Santorum
weren't on the Virginia ballot, and because the Romney campaign let Tennessee expectations get
out of whack.
"But if he adds a win in either Alabama or Mississippi, and wins as many or more delegates than
any of the others, he will have shut his opponents' Southern strategy down,"
added Collins, who ran Romney's 2008 operation but is neutral this time around.
Even if he doesn't win either Alabama or Mississippi, Romney will pick up delegates in both. Add
to that a bunch of likely delegates in more moderate Hawaii, and Romney will
probably expand his lead.
Results of all races
Romney picked up the endorsement of Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant last week. And while
Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley said he was going to vote for Santorum, he stressed later that
it wasn't a formal endorsement.
"I actually believe it's not good to endorse people," Bentley told CNN on Tuesday evening.
"People in this state like to make up their own mind. And I certainly believe they
have the right to do that."
GOP hopefuls battle for the Deep South Will Southern primaries shape GOP race? Gingrich vs.
Romney over grits Jeff Foxworthy endorses Romney
One factor that could drive up the social conservative vote in Alabama is that state's GOP primary
for chief justice. Former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore is on the
ballot, which could bring out more of the social conservatives who are skeptical of Romney's
candidacy.
Moore gained notoriety for having a large stone copy of the Ten Commandments installed in the
state Supreme Court building. He resisted a federal judge's order that the
comandments be removed before he was removed from office in 2003.
Romney has been trying out his Southern charm, saying last week on the campaign trail in
Mississippi that he was "an unofficial Southerner" and joking that "I am learning to say
'y'all' and 'I like grits,' and things. Strange things are happening to me."
Romney's campaign and a pro-Romney super PAC have combined to spend nearly $2 million to
run TV commercials in the two states. Southern comedian Jeff Foxworthy also joined him

4. on the campaign trail on Monday.
"I was able to avoid politics for 53 years and somebody said, 'Why in the world would you get
into it now?' and the answer is it's too important. Because I love this country,"
said Foxworthy, campaigning with Romney in Alabama.
Alabama results | County by county | Map
Gingrich threw a new wrinkle into the slow-Romney movement, suggesting he and Santorum
team up to stop the former Massachusetts governor.
"There's a certain advantage I think right now in having both of us tag-team Romney, because
neither one of us by ourselves can raise the money to match Romney," Gingrich said
on the "Rick and Bubba" radio show in Birmingham.
But Santorum has suggested he wants Gingrich out of the race so the anti-Romney movement is
no longer split between him and Gingrich.
Voters of Alabama and Mississippi have the opportunity "to step up for us and say we want this to
get to a two-person race," Santorum said at a rally Monday night in Montgomery,
Alabama. "We want this to be a race where we have the opportunity -- not at convention, but
before a convention -- to nominate somebody who can stand up for the values that the
people of Alabama believe in and vote for every day."
Mississippi results | County by county | Map
But if Santorum loses to Gingrich on Tuesday, it undercuts his argument that he's the conservative
alternative to Romney.
"Rick Santorum has a little bit of a danger zone," said Republican strategist Chip Saltsman, who
managed Mike Huckabee's 2008 Republican presidential campaign. "He had a big win
obviously Saturday in Kansas. He got a lot of delegates. Not a lot of coverage because everybody
was focused on Mississippi and Alabama.
"If he comes in third in both places, then they're going to say, 'Well, is Newt now the conservative
alternative?' And we'll start that story again."
http://www.coachoutletfactory2012.com