Rand's presentation from SEMPDX's Searchfest 2015 on how to avoid the common mistakes in competitive analysis and competitive intelligence.

1. Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | rand@moz.com
Great Failures in Competitive Intel
Why so many analyses of the competition fail, and
how web marketers can improve the process

2. bit.ly/randintelfail
Get the presentation:

3. Tragically Common,
Competitive Intel Failures4

4. Assuming Knowledge of the
Root Cause
#1

5. We’ve analyzed 50 of our most
important search terms and found
that the top organic result almost
never appears in the ads

6. We think this is due
to Google’s
preference for
diversity in their
SERPs.
Via Econsultancy

7. Recommended Action:
Test removal of our paid search
campaigns for a subset of keywords.

8. Recommended Action:
Test removal of our paid search
campaigns for a subset of keywords.
This isn’t necessarily a crazy, terrible idea.
So why do most of us know it won’t work?

9. Observation:
We saw X.
AFlawed Competitive Intel Process
Analysis:
We collected data.
Correlation:
We validated X’s
frequency.
Recommendation:
We proposed an experiment.

10. A Process

11. Observation:
We saw X.
Analysis:
We collected data.
Correlation:
We validated frequency.
Recommendations:
We proposed validation methods for each potential cause.
Hypotheses:
We brainstormed potential
root causes.

12. Mistaking a few Outliers for a
Representative Sample Set
#2

13. Competing in help desk
software will require a very high
domain authority

14. Err.. Wait, maybe not.

15. We Bias to What We Know
Given my background in search, I often conflate
rankings success with business success

16. And We Bias to Outliers
Via NYTimes: Silicon Valley’s Startup Machine

17. Often to the Detriment of the Truth
Funding only <25yr-old, college-dropout
founders is terribly limiting Via HBR

18. This Isn’t the
Only Way to Skin
a Cat.
Hammered Metal Lion by Selçuk Yılmaz

19. A Solution

20. Cast a Wide Net
Analyze:
Our four biggest
competitors in the
search rankings.

21. Cast a Wide Net
Analyze:
Our four biggest
competitors in the
search rankings.
Analyze:
A broad range of
competitors, noting
correlations that predict
both failure and success

22. e.g.
Instead of looking
exclusively at the
tactics of top ranking
sites…

23. e.g.
We look at the what
high ranking sites do
that lower ranking
sites don’t.

24. e.g.
AND try to understand
how sites that perform
poorly in search
results may be
attracting traffic and
leads through other
channels

25. Overinvesting
in Imitation
#3

26. Via Visual Website Optimizer
Could this
actually HURT
conversion?

27. Via Visual Website Optimizer

28. Via Visual Website Optimizer
A/B Test Results
Page without the shield icon had 400%+ CR
improvement vs page with the icon.
[Note: results ARE statistically significant]

29. We need to remove the
security messages on our
site ASAP!

30. We should test this.

31. Is this the most meaningful test we
can perform right now?
(I’m not saying it isn’t, just that we
should prioritize intelligently)

32. Via Kayak’s Most Interesting A/B Test
vs.

33. Via Kayak’s Most Interesting A/B Test
A/B Test Results
“So we decided to do our own experiment about this and
we actually found the opposite that when we removed the
messaging, people tended to book less.”
- Vinayak Ranade, Director of Engineering for Mobile, KAYAK

34. Good thing we
tested!
Good thing we
tested!
Your evidence is
no match for my
ignorance!

35. 2 Problems

36. #1: We don’t know for certain why or whether a
tactic worked (or if it will work for us).
#2: Copying a competitor’s strategy ensures
that we lag rather than leap them.

37. Underinvesting in Your Own,
Unique Strengths
#4

38. What’s Our Competition
Doing?

39. Blogging
Twitter
Google+
Events
PR
In-Person Sales
Email
Social Ads
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Print
Video
Instagram
Pinterest
Pinterest
Reddit
Image Search
Facebook
SEO
PPC
TV
Display

40. Blogging
Twitter
Google+
Events
PR
In-Person Sales
Email
Social Ads
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Print
Video
Instagram
Pinterest
Pinterest
Reddit
Image Search
Facebook
SEO
PPC
TV
Display

41. Blogging
Twitter
Google+
Events
PR
In-Person Sales
Email
Social Ads
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Print
Video
Instagram
Pinterest
Pinterest
Reddit
Image Search
Facebook
SEO
PPC
TV
Display
We Should Do These.

42. A Question

43. Things We Can
Do Better Than
Anyone Else
Tactics That Will
Reach &
Resonate With
Customers
What can we do here?

44. Things We Can
Do Better Than
Anyone Else
Tactics That Will
Reach &
Resonate With
Customers
Well, we’re unusually great at
visual content…

45. BloggingGoogle+
Events
In-Person Sales
Email
Retargeting
CRO
Outdoor
Radio
Print
Pinterest
Reddit SEO
PPC
TV
DisplayTwitter
PR
Social Ads
Video
Instagram
Pinterest
Image Search
Facebook

46. Now the 2 Questions Become…
TwitterPR
Social Ads Video
Instagram
Pinterest
Image Search
Facebook
Which of these channels/tactics can
successfully reach our audience?

47. Now the 2 Questions Become…
TwitterPR
Social Ads Video
Instagram
Pinterest
Image Search
Facebook
Who’s great at this stuff, and what
are they doing that works?

48. Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | rand@moz.com
bit.ly/randintelfail