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Coal Price Risk Management




                               New Delhi, October 2009
*Regulated by The Financial Services Authority
                                                         1
Introduction
                                                         2


                                                 Page
What this presentation is about                  3
Risk Management Methodology                      4
     Components of a Hedging Programme           5
     Optimum Hedging Strategy                    6
     Key Aspects of a Risk Management Approach   7
     Mitsui’s Role                               8
Risk Management Products – Coal                  11
     Evolution of Coal Swaps Trading             11
     Swaps and Options                           13
     What “Opportunities” emerge                 17
     Major Current Issues                        14
     Swaps                                       19
     Contact Details                             20
     Attached Product Appendix                   21-27
The Executive Summary!                                                   3



! The Risk management discipline and process
        !A clear methodology in place to support transaction decisions
! Identifying your exposure
        !Full understanding of the business dynamic is essential
        !Financial horizons must match market horizon
! Some contract examples
        !A walk through some building blocks of derivatives
! Derivatives bring a new perspective, why “Opportunities” exist
        !Taking a deeper look at the forward curve
! Some comments and conclusions on recent experience
        !Economic shocks
        !Supply and Demand shocks
        !Credit and cash management
Risk Management Methodology




                              4
Components of a Hedging Programme                                                            5

•   In order to stabilise cash flow and
    earnings volatility, IndiaCorp can
    manage risk via “hedging”
•   Hedging is an action of transferring
    risk to energy prices to a counterparty                Hedging Programme

•   A well-designed hedging strategy can:           Short-Term          Long–Term Exposure
                                               Exposure Management         Management
    –     Facilitate earnings predictability
          and stability and enable
          management planning and
          negotiation
    –     Reduce cost of capital or
          release capital held against
          commodity price shocks                Flexible Application,    Balance Sheet and
                                               Timing, and Execution    Revenue Management
•   Hedging does not necessarily make
    energy costs “cheaper” at any point in
    time
•   Hedging a particular exposure should
    be considered as part of an overall
    hedging strategy because currency
    risk may remain
           A well-designed hedging programme reduces the variability of costs
Optimum Hedging Strategy
                                                                                                                        6
                                                Evaluate
                                                Exposure
 •   The first step in any hedging
     decision is to identify the risk(s)
     that you are looking to mitigate. In                                 Identify
                                                                            Risk
     the case of IndiaCorp the risk is
     Coal costs will rise in the future
 •   The second step in a hedging                                                                 Evaluate
     policy is to evaluate acceptable risk   Analyse Position                                  Acceptable Risk
     levels that the program can take          (re- evaluate                                       Levels
                                                 regularly)                Hedging
 •   A number of diverse hedging                                           Program*
     instruments are available to
     mitigate the risks of high prices
     efficiently
 •   Hedging is an ongoing                                                                  Determine
     programme – regular                                      Execute                          Best
     adjustments to reflect forecasted                         Hedge                         Strategy
     fuel oil expenditures and
     anticipated market conditions
     must be made
                                                       * A clear, written, hedging policy should be the foundation of
                                                              any hedging decision
Key Aspects of a Risk Management Approach
                                                                                                       7


      Risk Management                                              Policy
      To successfully manage a hedge                               Hedging fuel exposure consumed
        portfolio on an international                                on the open market (outside of
        market, while bearing in mind                                domestic market)
        market economics                                           Locking fuel costs out to 3 years
                                                                   Looking at Swaps, Capped
                                                                     Swaps, and other combinations
Execution
                                                 Risk Management
At any time prices are below
                                                       Policy
   budget levels
                                                      Strategy
At any time structures are below
                                                       Timing
   budget levels
                                                     Execution
Work orders to closely mirror the                                   Strategy
   movement in the markets by                                       To take advantage of dips in the
   taking advantage of dips in                                         market by keeping abreast of
   prices                                                              fundamentals and trading
                                                                       activity
                                                                    To fix a certain quantity
                            Timing
                                                                       immediately after setting
                            Closely monitor the market on a            budget and costs
                               regular basis
                            Take out protection soon after
                               budget is set
Identifying your exposure
                                                                              8


•Start with the invoices at the purchasing department
         •Floating or fixed price terms
         •Taxation and duty calculations
         •Price risk sharing in rebates or discounts

•Consider the flexible element of overhead or revenues
       •Does this correlate to commodity prices?

•Work with CFO to understand shareholders’ outlook and expectation

•Consider capital requirements and credit facility capacity

•Look for regulatory support (RBI approval)

•Currency implications of settlements and collateral


         A well-designed hedging programme reduces the variability of costs
Mitsui’s Role
                                                                                                         9

                                               To monitor targets and
                                              ‘stop’ levels and advise
    To provide you with superior               Financial Managers if
   market analysis on an ongoing                  targets are close
   basis including presentations at
       regular hedge meetings                                              To discuss adjustments to
                                                                           min / max hedge levels that
                                                                               we feel appropriate

       To review portfolio of
     hedges each month and
      review effectiveness of                                                   To review hedges
               policy                                                          taken over previous
                                                                                     month


                                                                   To discuss targets and
                    If instructed, to enter                      ‘loss’ levels based on our
                   into hedge positions at                          perception of market
                     target / ‘stop’ levels                      outlook and hedge policy
                                                                      set by IndiaCorp
10
                                    Our Capabilities and Services


Structures
! Swaps, Caps, Floors & Collars
                                                          ! Straddle & Strangles
! Cracks
                                                          ! Extendibles swaps & Collars
! Ratio strategies
                                                          ! Full array of exotic OPTIONS
! 3-way collars
                                                          ! Spread & compound option
! Call spreads
                                                          ! Digital & barrier options
! Put spreads


Strategy Development and Support
Quantitative Analytics                                    ! Tailored hedging strategies
! Historical price distribution                           ! Regular marked-to-market (MTM) reports
! Correlation
! Sensitivity
! Strategy identification

        Research Products
        !    Daily Petroleum Price Reports
        !    Weekly Natural Gas Report
        !    Special Oil & Gas Impact Reports
        !    “Quick” technical & fundamental updates
        !    Client specific hedging presentations
Risk Management Products
          Coal




                           11
Actively Quoted Coal Indices
                                                                                            12
•   The index chosen as the underlying pricing reference for your hedge depends on the
    particular exposure you have to physical fuel prices
•   The following are the fuel oil indices that MERM is actively quoting and trading swaps on


                                           Europe
                                            API 2
                  US
               NYMEX Coal
                                                               Arab Gulf / Asia
                                                             globalCoal Newcastle




                                              South Africa
                                                 API 4
Swaps
                                                                                                                13
•   A swap is a financial instrument (no physical delivery) whereby one party (the buyer)
    agrees to pay the other a fixed price for an underlying product (Fuel Oil, Crude Oil, or any
    other commodity) in exchange for a floating price for the same underling.

     •   An example of which is a swap between MERM and IndiaCorp whereby IndiaCorp agrees to pay
         MERM a fixed price for its fuel consumption and MERM agrees to pay IndiaCorp a floating price
         for the same product – IndiaCorp thus fixes the price at which it buys its fuel (see below illustration)

•   The swap protects against adverse movements in energy prices by fixing the price you
    would pay for your fuel with a cash flow that compensates you should prices rise.


                                                                                     Physical Coal Supplier

                                 Fixed Price                        Physical Fuel

                                                  IndiaCorp
                                 Floating Price                     Floating Price


                                   Financial                           Physical
                                  Transaction                        Transaction
Swap Term Sheet
                                                                                                                                          14

 Swap Buyer:                     IndiaCorp
 Swap Seller:                    Mitsui & Co. Energy Risk Management Ltd (“MERM”)
 Reference:                      globalCoal Newcastle Index
 Swap Price:                     50 $/mt*
 Start Date:                     1st July 2010
 End Date:                       31st December 2011
 Volume:                         25,000 mt / month (450,000 mt total)
 Settlement:                     Monthly ,5 business days after the end of the month
                                 (Note that this settlement period can be adjusted to match the payment
                                 patterns of the counterpart)




 * Prices are constantly changing as markets move, we would be happy to show you firm offers via telephone, subject to credit and legal
 requirements
Swap Mechanics
                                                                                                                                                                                                      15

                                         60.00
                                                                                         Swap Price $50/mt
 Below the swap                                                                                                                                                                  Above the swap
    price, your                                                                                                                                                                    price, Mitsui’s
                                         40.00                                                                                                                                   payments to you
   payments to
                                                                                                                                                                                 increases as the



                    Swap Payout ($/mt)
 Mitsui increase
  as the price of
                                         20.00                                                                                                                                   price of coal rise
     coal falls
                                          0.00

                                         -20.00


                                         -40.00

                                         -60.00
                                                  6.00

                                                         12.00

                                                                 18.00

                                                                         24.00

                                                                                 30.00

                                                                                         36.00

                                                                                                 42.00

                                                                                                         48.00

                                                                                                                 54.00

                                                                                                                         60.00

                                                                                                                                 66.00

                                                                                                                                         72.00

                                                                                                                                                 78.00

                                                                                                                                                         84.00

                                                                                                                                                                 90.00

                                                                                                                                                                         96.00
                                                                             Average Settlem ent Price for NEWC ($/m t)


 •     To give you an idea of where the market is currently trading, the globalCoal Newcastle swap for
       July 2010 – December 2011 is currently at $90/mt (5th October 2009)
 •     The vanilla swap fixes the maximum price you would have to pay for your fuel, offering you
       immediate certainty of expenses
 •     As the upside is uncapped, you have unlimited up-side protection
 •     The swap has no entry costs
Call Option (also known as a Cap)
                                                                              16

"   A call option grants you the right but not the obligation to buy at an
    agreed price in return for paying a premium.

"   Options are effectively an insurance policy – once the premium is paid
    there are no further outward payments.

"   A number of factors affect how the premium of an option is
    determined.
     " These are: Strike Price / Price of Underlying Fuel / Duration of the
       Option / Volatility of Underlying Fuel



"   A Call for Apr 10 – Mar 11 NEWc with a strike at $85 costs $10/mt.

"   A Call for Apr 10 – Mar 11 NEWc with a strike at $100 costs $5/mt.
Why opportunities exist
                                                                                                                                                           17
                                                       10-11-12 forward curve

                                                                                  Economic outlook improves sharply May 09
        $110

                           Market low of $71 for Cal’12 March 2009

        $100



          $90



          $80
                                                                                                                                                            100-110
                                                                                                                                                            90-100
          $70                                                                                                                                               80-90
                                                                                                                                                            70-80
                                                                                                                                                            60-70
          $60
                                                                                                                                                            50-60


           $50
               9
             00     09
        /01/2 1/20 2009 09
      02 22/0          / /20     9
                   /02         00     9
                 10 02/03 /03/2 4/200     00
                                            9
                          19    /0     4/2        09       9
                              07     /0        /20      00       09
                                   24      /05       6/2      /20         9




                                                                                                                                                  Sep-12
                                         13        /0                  00




                                                                                                                                         Jan-12
                                                 02       /06       7/2         09




                                                                                                                                May-11
                                                        19        /0         /20       00
                                                                                          9




                                                                                                                       Sep-10
                                                                08       /07                      9
                                                                                    8/2        00




                                                                                                              Jan-10
                                                                       27        3/0        9/2          09
                                                                               1          /0          /20
                                                                                        01        /09
                                                                                                25
-10.00%
                                         -5.00%
                                                                0.00%
                                                                              5.00%
                                                                                             10.00%
                                                                                                             15.00%
                                                                                                                             20.00%
                                                                                                                                              25.00%
                                                       19
                                                         82
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Ja
                                                                                                                                                                                                   n-
                                                       19                                                                                                                                            09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $65
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               $85
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $90



                                                         84

                                                       19                                                                                                                                        Ja
                                                                                                                                                                                                   n-
                                                         86                                                                                                                                          09


                                                       19                                                                                                                                        Ja
                                                         88                                                                                                                                        n-
                                                                                                                                                                                                     09

                                                       19
                                                         90                                                                                                                                      F
                                                                                                                                                                                                  eb
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
                                                       19
                                                         92
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                                                                                                                                                                                                  eb
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -0
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                                                         94
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                                                                                                                                                                                                    -0
                                                         96                                                                                                                                           9


                                                       19                                                                                                                                        M
                                                         98                                                                                                                                       ar
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      9



                                                                                                                                                               Chinese coal consumption growth
                                                       20
                                                         00                                                                                                                                      A
                                                                                                                                                                                                  pr
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
                                                       20
                                                         02
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                                                       20                                                                                                                                             9
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                                                       20
                                                         06

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            BP Statistical Review
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ay
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Why we are looking for opportunities




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Ju
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           API4 CAL10 Swap




                                                                                                                                                                                                   n-
                                                                                                                                                                                                     09

Ju
  n-




                      $0
                                                 $20
                                                          $40
                                                                        $60
                                                                               $80
                                                                                      $100
                                                                                                      $120
                                                                                                             $140
                                                                                                                      $160
                                                                                                                                      $180
                                                                                                                                             $200




      0                                                                                                                                                                                          Ju
Se 1                                                                                                                                                                                               n-
  p-
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De 1
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M 1
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Ju 3
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                                                                                                                                                       Weekly RB




De 5                                                                                                                                                                                              ep
   c-
     0                                                                                                                                                                                              -0
M 5                                                                                                                                                                                                   9
 ar
    -0
Ju 6
  n-
      0                                                                                                                                                                                          S
Se 6                                                                                                                                                                                              ep
   p-                                                                                                                                                                                               -0
      0                                                                                                                                                                                               9
De 6
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M 6
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    -0
Ju 7
  n-
      0
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    -0
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                                    globalCoal




 ar
    -0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    McCloskey/MERM




Ju 9
  n-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             18




      0
Se 9
   p-
      09
The main issues of the day
                                                                             19


 •   The Coal Market                 •   The Global Market
      – Dark Spreads in Europe            – V or W recession?
      – Liquidity concentrations          – Regulation of OTC markets
      – New Indices and Platforms         – Availablilty of Credit
      – Freight Market development            • Cash Management
      – Carbon Management                     • Credit Default Risk
          • Tax?                          – Our Financial Horizon
          • Cap and Trade?                – Technology
          • Clean Coal                    – Climate Change
      – 10 or 20 year hedges              – Role of Financial institutions
Contact Details                                                                                                                                          20
London Desk:
•   Jack Kellett                   +44.20.7489.6748
                                   » Jack.kellett@mitenergy.com

                  •   We employ a team of 25 professionals in London dedicated to derivatives and are part
                      of a global trading organisation with offices throughout the world.




                               5th Floor
                                                         2 Shenton Way                31st Floor                Mitsui & Co. Building
                           St. Martins Court
                                                      #08-03 SGX Centre 1          200 Park Avenue            2-1 Ohtemachi 1-Chome
                          10 Paternoster Row
                                                            068804                    New York                      Chiyoda-ku
                              EC4M 7BB
                                                           Singapore                  NY 10166                    Tokyo 100-0004
                                London
                                                           Singapore                    USA                            Japan
                                  UK


This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. All market prices, data, and other information are not warranted as to completeness or
accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any price information is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and is subject to
change without notice. Any price statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Mitsui & Co., Ltd, its subsidiaries or affiliates.
Accordingly, Mitsui & Co., Ltd., its subsidiaries or affiliates shall have no liability to you whether such liability arises in contract, tort or statute for
any costs, losses, expenses, damages whether arising or incurred directly or indirectly by you placing reliance on any information contained within
this communication.
Risk Management Products
       Appendix




                           21
22
Capped Swap

    Operates as a normal swap, with the upside limited to a specified
    amount
    If IndiaCorp buys the capped swap:
    IndiaCorp pays Mitsui if the mean price for the relevant period falls below the
    swap level (IndiaCorp pays Swap Price minus Mean Price)
    Mitsui pays IndiaCorp if the mean price for the relevant period is greater than
    the swap level (Mitsui pays Mean Price minus Swap Price)
    The amount Mitsui will pay IndiaCorp will be limited to a specified
    maximum amount
    Because the upside is limited, the capped swap can be purchased at a
    level lower than the normal swap
    Therefore the structure is useful if you expect prices to increase, but
    only up to certain levels
23
Knock-out Structure

   Operates in a similar way to a conventional swap, but if prices exceed
   a specified level, the purchaser receives No payment
   If IndiaCorp buys the knock-out swap:
   IndiaCorp pays Mitsui if the mean price for the relevant period falls below the
   swap level (IndiaCorp pays Swap Price minus Mean Price)
   Mitsui pays IndiaCorp if the mean price for the relevant period is greater than
   the swap level (Mitsui pays Mean Price minus Swap Price)
   If the mean price exceeds a certain threshold, Mitsui pays Nothing to IndiaCorp

   Because IndiaCorp has a risk of receiving nothing, if prices rise
   beyond a certain threshold:
   IndiaCorp will receive a very favourable swap level, lower than a
   conventional swap
   Such a structure would be suitable if you expect prices to rise, but are
   confident they will not rise beyond a certain level
24
Zero Cost Collar

    Conventionally, IndiaCorp may purchase a call option by paying a
    premium
    The call may be purchased for zero cost, by selling a put
    Thus IndiaCorp does not need to pay anything for this structure


    If mean prices exceed the call strike level, IndiaCorp will receive an
    amount equivalent to the excess from Mitsui
    If mean prices fall below the put strike level, IndiaCorp must pay Mitsui
    the amount by which the put strike level exceeds the mean price
    If the mean price is between the call and put strike levels, there is no
    payment between the parties
    Such a structure would be suitable if you expect prices will stay above
    the put strike level, and are likely to be higher than the call level
25
Zero Cost Collar with a Knockout

     Works as a conventional zero cost collar
     If mean prices exceed the call strike level, by more than a specified
     threshold, IndiaCorp receives No pay out
     Therefore:
     If mean price > knock out level, IndiaCorp receives No payment
     If knock out level > mean price > call strike, IndiaCorp receives a payment
     from Mitsui, equivalent to the Mean Price minus Call Strike Level
     If mean prices < put strike, IndiaCorp must pay Mitsui an amount equivalent
     to the Put Strike Level – Mean Price

     The knock out allows us to offer lower price levels for the put and/or
     the call
     This structure would be suitable if you expect prices will stay above
     the put level, and are likely to be higher than the call strike level
     while also staying below the knock-out level
26
3 Way Structure

    IndiaCorp can get upside protection at zero cost


    IndiaCorp buys a call, sells a call at a higher strike level and sells a put


    The cost of the call purchased by IndiaCorp is subsidised by selling a
    call and put


    This gives upside protection which is limited to the difference between
    the call strike levels


    IndiaCorp will pay Mitsui if the mean price falls below the put level
27
3 Way Extendible Structure

     The 3 way structure may be extendible into the following period, at
     Mitsui’s discretion

     For Example, a structure for Q1 08 may be extended into Q2 08, at
     Mitsui’s discretion

     By giving Mitsui the choice of whether or not to extend the period:

     IndiaCorp may be able to sell a lower put level

     IndiaCorp may purchase a more attractive call level

     IndiaCorp may purchase a wider call spread

     The 3 Way and 3 Way Extendible may be suitable if you expect
     prices will remain above the put level, and are likely to be within the
     range outlined by the call spread for the full term of the transaction

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mining paper

  • 1. Coal Price Risk Management New Delhi, October 2009 *Regulated by The Financial Services Authority 1
  • 2. Introduction 2 Page What this presentation is about 3 Risk Management Methodology 4 Components of a Hedging Programme 5 Optimum Hedging Strategy 6 Key Aspects of a Risk Management Approach 7 Mitsui’s Role 8 Risk Management Products – Coal 11 Evolution of Coal Swaps Trading 11 Swaps and Options 13 What “Opportunities” emerge 17 Major Current Issues 14 Swaps 19 Contact Details 20 Attached Product Appendix 21-27
  • 3. The Executive Summary! 3 ! The Risk management discipline and process !A clear methodology in place to support transaction decisions ! Identifying your exposure !Full understanding of the business dynamic is essential !Financial horizons must match market horizon ! Some contract examples !A walk through some building blocks of derivatives ! Derivatives bring a new perspective, why “Opportunities” exist !Taking a deeper look at the forward curve ! Some comments and conclusions on recent experience !Economic shocks !Supply and Demand shocks !Credit and cash management
  • 5. Components of a Hedging Programme 5 • In order to stabilise cash flow and earnings volatility, IndiaCorp can manage risk via “hedging” • Hedging is an action of transferring risk to energy prices to a counterparty Hedging Programme • A well-designed hedging strategy can: Short-Term Long–Term Exposure Exposure Management Management – Facilitate earnings predictability and stability and enable management planning and negotiation – Reduce cost of capital or release capital held against commodity price shocks Flexible Application, Balance Sheet and Timing, and Execution Revenue Management • Hedging does not necessarily make energy costs “cheaper” at any point in time • Hedging a particular exposure should be considered as part of an overall hedging strategy because currency risk may remain A well-designed hedging programme reduces the variability of costs
  • 6. Optimum Hedging Strategy 6 Evaluate Exposure • The first step in any hedging decision is to identify the risk(s) that you are looking to mitigate. In Identify Risk the case of IndiaCorp the risk is Coal costs will rise in the future • The second step in a hedging Evaluate policy is to evaluate acceptable risk Analyse Position Acceptable Risk levels that the program can take (re- evaluate Levels regularly) Hedging • A number of diverse hedging Program* instruments are available to mitigate the risks of high prices efficiently • Hedging is an ongoing Determine programme – regular Execute Best adjustments to reflect forecasted Hedge Strategy fuel oil expenditures and anticipated market conditions must be made * A clear, written, hedging policy should be the foundation of any hedging decision
  • 7. Key Aspects of a Risk Management Approach 7 Risk Management Policy To successfully manage a hedge Hedging fuel exposure consumed portfolio on an international on the open market (outside of market, while bearing in mind domestic market) market economics Locking fuel costs out to 3 years Looking at Swaps, Capped Swaps, and other combinations Execution Risk Management At any time prices are below Policy budget levels Strategy At any time structures are below Timing budget levels Execution Work orders to closely mirror the Strategy movement in the markets by To take advantage of dips in the taking advantage of dips in market by keeping abreast of prices fundamentals and trading activity To fix a certain quantity Timing immediately after setting Closely monitor the market on a budget and costs regular basis Take out protection soon after budget is set
  • 8. Identifying your exposure 8 •Start with the invoices at the purchasing department •Floating or fixed price terms •Taxation and duty calculations •Price risk sharing in rebates or discounts •Consider the flexible element of overhead or revenues •Does this correlate to commodity prices? •Work with CFO to understand shareholders’ outlook and expectation •Consider capital requirements and credit facility capacity •Look for regulatory support (RBI approval) •Currency implications of settlements and collateral A well-designed hedging programme reduces the variability of costs
  • 9. Mitsui’s Role 9 To monitor targets and ‘stop’ levels and advise To provide you with superior Financial Managers if market analysis on an ongoing targets are close basis including presentations at regular hedge meetings To discuss adjustments to min / max hedge levels that we feel appropriate To review portfolio of hedges each month and review effectiveness of To review hedges policy taken over previous month To discuss targets and If instructed, to enter ‘loss’ levels based on our into hedge positions at perception of market target / ‘stop’ levels outlook and hedge policy set by IndiaCorp
  • 10. 10 Our Capabilities and Services Structures ! Swaps, Caps, Floors & Collars ! Straddle & Strangles ! Cracks ! Extendibles swaps & Collars ! Ratio strategies ! Full array of exotic OPTIONS ! 3-way collars ! Spread & compound option ! Call spreads ! Digital & barrier options ! Put spreads Strategy Development and Support Quantitative Analytics ! Tailored hedging strategies ! Historical price distribution ! Regular marked-to-market (MTM) reports ! Correlation ! Sensitivity ! Strategy identification Research Products ! Daily Petroleum Price Reports ! Weekly Natural Gas Report ! Special Oil & Gas Impact Reports ! “Quick” technical & fundamental updates ! Client specific hedging presentations
  • 12. Actively Quoted Coal Indices 12 • The index chosen as the underlying pricing reference for your hedge depends on the particular exposure you have to physical fuel prices • The following are the fuel oil indices that MERM is actively quoting and trading swaps on Europe API 2 US NYMEX Coal Arab Gulf / Asia globalCoal Newcastle South Africa API 4
  • 13. Swaps 13 • A swap is a financial instrument (no physical delivery) whereby one party (the buyer) agrees to pay the other a fixed price for an underlying product (Fuel Oil, Crude Oil, or any other commodity) in exchange for a floating price for the same underling. • An example of which is a swap between MERM and IndiaCorp whereby IndiaCorp agrees to pay MERM a fixed price for its fuel consumption and MERM agrees to pay IndiaCorp a floating price for the same product – IndiaCorp thus fixes the price at which it buys its fuel (see below illustration) • The swap protects against adverse movements in energy prices by fixing the price you would pay for your fuel with a cash flow that compensates you should prices rise. Physical Coal Supplier Fixed Price Physical Fuel IndiaCorp Floating Price Floating Price Financial Physical Transaction Transaction
  • 14. Swap Term Sheet 14 Swap Buyer: IndiaCorp Swap Seller: Mitsui & Co. Energy Risk Management Ltd (“MERM”) Reference: globalCoal Newcastle Index Swap Price: 50 $/mt* Start Date: 1st July 2010 End Date: 31st December 2011 Volume: 25,000 mt / month (450,000 mt total) Settlement: Monthly ,5 business days after the end of the month (Note that this settlement period can be adjusted to match the payment patterns of the counterpart) * Prices are constantly changing as markets move, we would be happy to show you firm offers via telephone, subject to credit and legal requirements
  • 15. Swap Mechanics 15 60.00 Swap Price $50/mt Below the swap Above the swap price, your price, Mitsui’s 40.00 payments to you payments to increases as the Swap Payout ($/mt) Mitsui increase as the price of 20.00 price of coal rise coal falls 0.00 -20.00 -40.00 -60.00 6.00 12.00 18.00 24.00 30.00 36.00 42.00 48.00 54.00 60.00 66.00 72.00 78.00 84.00 90.00 96.00 Average Settlem ent Price for NEWC ($/m t) • To give you an idea of where the market is currently trading, the globalCoal Newcastle swap for July 2010 – December 2011 is currently at $90/mt (5th October 2009) • The vanilla swap fixes the maximum price you would have to pay for your fuel, offering you immediate certainty of expenses • As the upside is uncapped, you have unlimited up-side protection • The swap has no entry costs
  • 16. Call Option (also known as a Cap) 16 " A call option grants you the right but not the obligation to buy at an agreed price in return for paying a premium. " Options are effectively an insurance policy – once the premium is paid there are no further outward payments. " A number of factors affect how the premium of an option is determined. " These are: Strike Price / Price of Underlying Fuel / Duration of the Option / Volatility of Underlying Fuel " A Call for Apr 10 – Mar 11 NEWc with a strike at $85 costs $10/mt. " A Call for Apr 10 – Mar 11 NEWc with a strike at $100 costs $5/mt.
  • 17. Why opportunities exist 17 10-11-12 forward curve Economic outlook improves sharply May 09 $110 Market low of $71 for Cal’12 March 2009 $100 $90 $80 100-110 90-100 $70 80-90 70-80 60-70 $60 50-60 $50 9 00 09 /01/2 1/20 2009 09 02 22/0 / /20 9 /02 00 9 10 02/03 /03/2 4/200 00 9 19 /0 4/2 09 9 07 /0 /20 00 09 24 /05 6/2 /20 9 Sep-12 13 /0 00 Jan-12 02 /06 7/2 09 May-11 19 /0 /20 00 9 Sep-10 08 /07 9 8/2 00 Jan-10 27 3/0 9/2 09 1 /0 /20 01 /09 25
  • 18. -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 19 82 Ja n- 19 09 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70 $75 $80 $85 $90 84 19 Ja n- 86 09 19 Ja 88 n- 09 19 90 F eb -0 9 19 92 F eb -0 19 9 94 M 19 ar -0 96 9 19 M 98 ar -0 9 Chinese coal consumption growth 20 00 A pr -0 9 20 02 A pr -0 20 9 04 M ay -0 9 20 06 M BP Statistical Review ay -0 9 Why we are looking for opportunities Ju API4 CAL10 Swap n- 09 Ju n- $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 0 Ju Se 1 n- p- 0 09 De 1 c- 0 M 1 ar -0 Ju 2 Ju n- l-0 0 9 Se 2 p- 0 De 2 c- 0 Ju M 2 l-0 ar -0 9 Ju 3 n- 0 Se 3 p- Ju 03 De l-0 c- 0 9 M 3 ar -0 Ju 4 n- A 0 ug Se 4 -0 p- 9 0 De 4 c- 0 M 4 A ar ug -0 -0 Ju 5 n- 9 0 Se 5 p- 0 S Weekly RB De 5 ep c- 0 -0 M 5 9 ar -0 Ju 6 n- 0 S Se 6 ep p- -0 0 9 De 6 c- 0 M 6 ar -0 Ju 7 n- 0 Se 7 p- 0 De 7 c- 07 M ar -0 Ju 8 n- 0 Se 8 p- 0 De 8 c- 08 M globalCoal ar -0 McCloskey/MERM Ju 9 n- 18 0 Se 9 p- 09
  • 19. The main issues of the day 19 • The Coal Market • The Global Market – Dark Spreads in Europe – V or W recession? – Liquidity concentrations – Regulation of OTC markets – New Indices and Platforms – Availablilty of Credit – Freight Market development • Cash Management – Carbon Management • Credit Default Risk • Tax? – Our Financial Horizon • Cap and Trade? – Technology • Clean Coal – Climate Change – 10 or 20 year hedges – Role of Financial institutions
  • 20. Contact Details 20 London Desk: • Jack Kellett +44.20.7489.6748 » Jack.kellett@mitenergy.com • We employ a team of 25 professionals in London dedicated to derivatives and are part of a global trading organisation with offices throughout the world. 5th Floor 2 Shenton Way 31st Floor Mitsui & Co. Building St. Martins Court #08-03 SGX Centre 1 200 Park Avenue 2-1 Ohtemachi 1-Chome 10 Paternoster Row 068804 New York Chiyoda-ku EC4M 7BB Singapore NY 10166 Tokyo 100-0004 London Singapore USA Japan UK This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. All market prices, data, and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any price information is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and is subject to change without notice. Any price statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Mitsui & Co., Ltd, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Accordingly, Mitsui & Co., Ltd., its subsidiaries or affiliates shall have no liability to you whether such liability arises in contract, tort or statute for any costs, losses, expenses, damages whether arising or incurred directly or indirectly by you placing reliance on any information contained within this communication.
  • 22. 22 Capped Swap Operates as a normal swap, with the upside limited to a specified amount If IndiaCorp buys the capped swap: IndiaCorp pays Mitsui if the mean price for the relevant period falls below the swap level (IndiaCorp pays Swap Price minus Mean Price) Mitsui pays IndiaCorp if the mean price for the relevant period is greater than the swap level (Mitsui pays Mean Price minus Swap Price) The amount Mitsui will pay IndiaCorp will be limited to a specified maximum amount Because the upside is limited, the capped swap can be purchased at a level lower than the normal swap Therefore the structure is useful if you expect prices to increase, but only up to certain levels
  • 23. 23 Knock-out Structure Operates in a similar way to a conventional swap, but if prices exceed a specified level, the purchaser receives No payment If IndiaCorp buys the knock-out swap: IndiaCorp pays Mitsui if the mean price for the relevant period falls below the swap level (IndiaCorp pays Swap Price minus Mean Price) Mitsui pays IndiaCorp if the mean price for the relevant period is greater than the swap level (Mitsui pays Mean Price minus Swap Price) If the mean price exceeds a certain threshold, Mitsui pays Nothing to IndiaCorp Because IndiaCorp has a risk of receiving nothing, if prices rise beyond a certain threshold: IndiaCorp will receive a very favourable swap level, lower than a conventional swap Such a structure would be suitable if you expect prices to rise, but are confident they will not rise beyond a certain level
  • 24. 24 Zero Cost Collar Conventionally, IndiaCorp may purchase a call option by paying a premium The call may be purchased for zero cost, by selling a put Thus IndiaCorp does not need to pay anything for this structure If mean prices exceed the call strike level, IndiaCorp will receive an amount equivalent to the excess from Mitsui If mean prices fall below the put strike level, IndiaCorp must pay Mitsui the amount by which the put strike level exceeds the mean price If the mean price is between the call and put strike levels, there is no payment between the parties Such a structure would be suitable if you expect prices will stay above the put strike level, and are likely to be higher than the call level
  • 25. 25 Zero Cost Collar with a Knockout Works as a conventional zero cost collar If mean prices exceed the call strike level, by more than a specified threshold, IndiaCorp receives No pay out Therefore: If mean price > knock out level, IndiaCorp receives No payment If knock out level > mean price > call strike, IndiaCorp receives a payment from Mitsui, equivalent to the Mean Price minus Call Strike Level If mean prices < put strike, IndiaCorp must pay Mitsui an amount equivalent to the Put Strike Level – Mean Price The knock out allows us to offer lower price levels for the put and/or the call This structure would be suitable if you expect prices will stay above the put level, and are likely to be higher than the call strike level while also staying below the knock-out level
  • 26. 26 3 Way Structure IndiaCorp can get upside protection at zero cost IndiaCorp buys a call, sells a call at a higher strike level and sells a put The cost of the call purchased by IndiaCorp is subsidised by selling a call and put This gives upside protection which is limited to the difference between the call strike levels IndiaCorp will pay Mitsui if the mean price falls below the put level
  • 27. 27 3 Way Extendible Structure The 3 way structure may be extendible into the following period, at Mitsui’s discretion For Example, a structure for Q1 08 may be extended into Q2 08, at Mitsui’s discretion By giving Mitsui the choice of whether or not to extend the period: IndiaCorp may be able to sell a lower put level IndiaCorp may purchase a more attractive call level IndiaCorp may purchase a wider call spread The 3 Way and 3 Way Extendible may be suitable if you expect prices will remain above the put level, and are likely to be within the range outlined by the call spread for the full term of the transaction