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iPhone5c的最后猜测
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Yanbin Kong
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在iPhone5C揭幕之前做的一些猜测。iPhone5C的价格有可能299$,并且苹果还能赚不少。
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iPhone5c的最后猜测
1.
iPhone5C的最后猜测 Raistlin.Kong@gmail.com 2013.8.28
2.
免责声明 和Apple以及本PPT提及的公司没有仸何关系 不在相关公司工作 不持有相关公司的股票 本文所使用的信息都为公开信息 仅仅是猜测 不推荐基于PPT进行任何决策,也不为相关决策造成的损失负 责
3.
iPhone5C马上降临
4.
唯一不确定的是 价格,价格,价格
5.
价格决定因素 iPhone5C BOM价格 Apple的Margin的期望 竞争对手的手机以及价格
6.
回到源点 为什么出iPhone5C
7.
智能手机竞争成巷战 Android和iOS的用户使用体验差别不大,某些方面Android更好 Android到4.0已经成熟,UI体验不逊于iOS,通知中心更是领先于iOS Android应用无论是质量还是数量 人人都爱大屏幕 iPhone4/4s/5需要成千上万规格各异,价格各异的 来自一、二线品牌的旗舰机型不逊于iPhone5,部分只要iPhone一半的价 格 中国的手机厂家质优价半旗舰手机优势更明显 2013Q2 iPhone在中国智能手机份额相对2012Q2被腰斩
8.
iPhone4/4S不堪重仸 机型太老 大屏高清的Android手机前,3.5寸屏太可怜 设计太老,太重,太厚 运行iOS7可能不够流畅,不能 成本还是太高,难以进一步拉低价格 iPhone4/4S已经将iPhone的Margin拉低很多 但是市场售价任然太高,高于中国品牌的旗舰手机
9.
iPhone5C的定位 售价应该足够低,能抢回市场份额 针对价格敏感的用户 不应高于中国品牌的旗舰手机 保持足够高的Margin Margin对Apple的股票价格至关重要 同时依然是一台iPhone手机
10.
但是,巷战变成硫磺岛 红米手机 售价799¥ 90秒内售出10万台 七百万用户预定
11.
红米,红米 CPU MT6589T, 28纳米四核
1.5Ghz A7内核 内存 1GB RAM + 4GB ROM 屏幕 4.7寸1280x720 IPS屏,外加大猩猩玻璃 GPU PowerVR SGX544 通信 TDSCDMA,GSM/GPRS 操作系统 基于Android 4.2的MIUI V5 相机 8百万像素(F2.2,28mm三星背照式) + 130万像素 连接 WiFi Direct + 蓝牙 4.0 + USB OTG + Dirac Audio + GPS + SDCard 品牌 小米 价格 799元(包含17%增值税,等同于税前 110$)
12.
红米为何如此轰动 相当不错 硬件配置不等于甚至高于iPhone5 抛开品牌,以及对外壳的纠结,基本可以取代iPhone5 仅相当于其它中国品牌类似手机45%~60%的价格 这不是山寨手机,做工以及售后都有保障 小米本身的品牌号召力相当强 米粉有些比果粉更狂热 MIUI在Android 4.2的基础上改进,更符合中国人使用体验
13.
为什么这么低的售价 小米手机本身一直智能手机市场的价格杀手 更多的MIUI用户,更多的移动入口,产生更多的收入和更高的估值 小米刚完成100亿美元估值的融资,红米有相当的功劳 小米的附件销售额和利润相当丰厚 限量销售,期货销售降低资金链和可能的亏损的压力 联发科MT6589T turnkey 极大地压缩手机硬件成本 联发科一直是挤压成本的高手 28nm制程降低成本 蓝牙/WiFi,
GPS ,RF,PA等全部来自联发科,更低的成本 芯片设计优化外部器件,以及PCB板的生产成本 红米手机的BOM和制造成本可能低于100$
14.
红米造成新一轮的降价 红米相同配置 其它小品牌的“红米”已经跟进799¥的价格策略 其它一二线品牌将被逼跟进到类似价位 甚至在不远的将来影响到一二线品牌的旗舰手机的定价 联发科Turnkey方案方便其它国际品牌Design In Sony, LG已经有使用联发科MT6589芯片的手机 亚马逊推出119$售价的“红米”手机(无锁)也不是不可能 如果成真的话,将把智能手机低价风暴吹到美国市场
15.
可以说 品牌的相当不错的智能手机价格 将极具下降
16.
所以 iPhone5C要想拿回市场份额需要在 价格上有相当的诚意
17.
16G iPhone5C售价将会是多少? 399$ ,
中国的售价将达到2899¥(包含17%增值税) 这个价位在中国市场上难以有作为 349$, 中国售价2499¥ 不会有太大的改观,应该需要更大点 299$, 中国售价2199¥ 有点意思,这个价格和小米的米3基本在一个价位,可以挤压到米3了 269$, 中国售价1899¥ 这个价位,会是一个炸弹,但是有可能么?
18.
我们就假设299$ 这时候的Margin是否可以接受?
19.
iPhone5C的信息和谣言 使用iPhone5的4寸屏幕,采用塑料外壳 基本板上钉钉了 采用iPhone5的相机: 8百万后摄像头 +
1百20万前摄像头 非常可信 去掉Siri以采用更低性能的CPU降低成本(比低成本话的A5) Siri作为重要的移动搜索入口,放弃Siri就是放弃未来,为了数美元 的BOM而放弃未来显然不明智 更低性能的CPU运行iOS不流畅,面对价格更低,但运行非常流畅 的“红米”,不会有机会 运行不流畅的iPhone本身就是对Apple品牌的毁损
20.
有更好降低成本的大招 采用和MT6589竞争的高通的S400芯片芯片,比如8930 28纳米1.2Ghz 双核krait 200
+ Adreno 305 GPU 性能和iPhone5的A6相当,运行iOS7流畅,也无需去除Siri 高通的套片可以包含 CPU 基带芯片(无需LTE,HSPA即可) BT + WiFi + GPS 所有的电源管理芯片,包括Audio Codec 因为SOC的高集成度,可以减少其它被动器件,Memory,甚至PCB成本 这么做可以节省大量的BOM成本
21.
我们先看iPhone5的BOM
22.
iPhone5C的BOM(猜测) • iPhone5的BOM是iSupply 2012年9月数据,2013年的相同器件价格会有下降,因为手头没有资料, 所以根据感觉调整价格,实际价格可能会有较大的出入。
23.
所以使用高通套片 完全有可能将iPhone5C的成本压倒 120$,如果库船长给力的话, 110$都有可能
24.
Margin可以接受 售价 299$ BOM成本130$, Margin
56.5% BOM成本120$, Margin 59.9% BOM成本110$, Margin 63.2% 售价269$ BOM成本130$, Margin 51.7% BOM成本120$, Margin 55.3% BOM成本110$, Margin 59.1%
25.
iPhone5C 有优势 iOS的使用体验还是优于Android iOS使用一段时间不会变慢,无需360等各种“优化”软件 iOS应用的质量和数量还是高于Android的应用 Android应用普遍存在滥用编程接口,权限,使用烦心 总之,iOS上无需学习很多系统知识,也无需进行很多维护性操作 这些需要一段时间的使用对比才能了解 在北美iPhone的市场份额在提高,或许因为这一点 品牌 前提是iPhone5C必须满足用户对一台iPhone的期望
26.
iPhone5S/C 的可能配置对比 iPhone5C和iPhone5S的配置拉开,减少两者之间的干扰的同时确保iPhone5C低成本
27.
299$的iPhone5C可以 让价格敏感的老用户从3GS/4/4S切换到iPhone5C 加快赢回从iPhone切换到 Android的用户 赢取更多的新的Apple用户 BRICs市场上的增长完全依赖于iPhone5C 产生光环效应,新用户采购其它Apple的产品 Apple获取可以考虑出 Macbook
Basic,iPad MiniC
28.
更多用户还意味着 iTunes, Siri ,Map,iCloud等Apple的服务更多的用户 相关的收入和利润更多 作为移动入口的价值更高 在线服务和变现应该是Apple的有待开发的未来 现在应该是Apple学习Google
29.
这一切 仅仅是猜测
30.
9月10日 谜底揭开 搬好小板凳,好戏开锣
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