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Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015
David J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM Research

The» pace» of» Smart» Grid» integration» and» related» technology» advancement» is» increasing» in» the» US» due» to»
looming»generation»burdens»from»renewables»build-out»and»emerging»networked»grid»applications»like»electric»
vehicles.»This»new»power»scenario»has»placed»the»onus»on»utilities»to»integrate»Smart»Grid»technology»to»cope»
with»load»management»and»next-gen»obstacles»such»as»‘green»blackouts’.»»

GTM Research’s Smart Grid Market Forecast , 2010 – 2015
                                                                           In»this»report,»GTM»Research»anticipates»the»
                                                                           Smart»Grid»market»to»grow»from»$5.6»billion»
                                                                           in»2010»to»$9.6»billion»in»2015.»»We»formulate»
                                                                           this» forecast» by» compiling» outlooks» for» the»
                                                                           following» submarket» segments:» advanced»
                                                                           metering» infrastructure» (AMI),» distribution»
                                                                           automation»(DA),»home»area»networks»(HAN)»
                                                                           and»smart»utility»enterprise.»»In»addition,»the»
                                                                           report» examines» the» factors» that» will» lead»
                                                                           to» continued» smart» meters» rollout» in» the»
                                                                           near» future;» we» anticipate» a» 48%» national»
  source: GTM Research                                                     deployment»by»2015.»

Note: Complete forecast data available in the report

However,»the»eventual»build-out»of»the»true»Smart»Grid»must»also»include»adding»communications»capabilities»and»
intelligence»to»the»actual»distribution»grid,»as»well»as»the»back-end»utility»systems,»in»order»to»make»greatest»use»of»
this»newly»generated»data.»»While»these»deployments»will»take»decades»to»reach»full»penetration,»utility»executives»
are» beginning» to» recognize» that» a» robust» communications» architecture» will» be» the» backbone» upon» which» all»
future»applications»will»be»built,»and»that»without»a»smart»enterprise,»the»nation’s»grids»will»not»be»suffi  »»ciently»
intelligent»to»proactively»manage»demand,»re-route»power»around»disturbances,»integrate»distributed»renewables»
and»electric»transportation,»and»most»importantly,»to»continue»to»offer»reliable»and»affordable»electricity.»»
                                                                        »                   »

US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010–2015» analyzes» the» evolving» issues» of» the» Smart» Grid» industry.» » GTM»
Research’s» analysis» includes» the» most» critical» market» trends,» a» detailed» forecast» of» the» market» over» the» next»
fi»ve»years,»and»provides»an»update»of»our»Smart»Grid»Vendor»Taxonomy,»in»addition»to»offering»insight»into»how»
                                                                                                    »
different»players»and»sub-markets»are»positioned»to»move»forward.»»
   »
RePORT TABLe OF COnTenTs:

1 eXeCUTiVe sUMMARy & Key Findings
                                                      Questions for Competitive Decision-making:
2 gUiding MARKeT insigHTs And TRends                  How» large» is» the» total» Smart» Grid» market» and»
  2.1»Industry»Mega-Themes
                                                      what»are»the»sizes»of»the»industry’s»sub-markets?
  2.2»Advanced»Metering»Infrastructure»(AMI)
  2.3»Distribution»Automation»(DA)                    What» are» the» underlying» costs» of» major»
  2.4»Smart»Enterprise                                components»that»contribute»to»the»Smart»Grid?
  2.5»Home-Area»Networks»(HAN)»
  2.6»Future»Trends                                   How»will»the»Smart»Grid»evolve»beyond»smart»
3 UPdATed sMART gRid TAXOnOMy
                                                      meter»deployment?
  3.1»Introduction                                    Which»applications»and»technologies»will»play»
  3.2»Taxonomy:»“Leading»Players»by»Market»» »
  » »»»»Segment”»»Tier»1
                                                      a»greater»role»in»next»phase»grid»build-out?
  3.3»Taxonomy:»“Leading»Players»by»Market»» »
  » »»»»Segment”»Tier»2                               Which» Smart» Grid» submarket» is» primed» for»
4 sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT 2010–2015, MOdeL
                                                      business»growth»opportunities»through»2015?
  AssUMPTiOns & insigHTs
                                                      What»are»the»best»ways»utilities»can»apply»their»
  4.1»Advanced»Meter»Infrastructure»(AMI)»»       »   resources»to»optimize»Smart»Grid»investments?
  » »»»Forecast
       4.1.1»Meter»Forecast
       4.1.2»Meter»Count
       4.1.3»Costs
       4.1.3.1»Smart»Meters
       4.1.3.2»Meter»Install
       4.1.3.3»AMI»Network
       4.1.3.4»Systems»Integration»and»IT»for»AMI
                                                      Value-added Elements:
       4.1.4»The»AMI»forecast
  4.2»Distribution»Automation»(DA)»Forecast           Overall» market» outlooks» with» drill» down» to»
       4.2.1»Introduction                             specifi
                                                           »c»submarket»projections
       4.2.2»Methodology
       4.2.2.1»Aging»Grid»Assets
       4.2.2.2»Rate»of»adoption                       Bottom-up»forecast»analysis
       4.2.2.3»Forecasted»Multiplier
       4.2.3»The»Distribution»Automation»Forecast     Component» costs» from» smart» meter»
  4.3»The»Home»Area»Network»(HAN)»Forecast
       4.3.1»Introduction                             communication»cards»to»capacitor»banks
       4.3.2»Smart»Home»Devices
       4.3.3»The»Home»Area»Network»Forecast           Vendor» implications» within» evolving» Smart»
  4.4»The»Smart»Enterprise»Forecast
       4.4.1»Introduction
                                                      Grid»ecosystem
       4.4.2»The»Smart»Enterprise»Forecast
                                                      Competitive» positioning» of» start-ups» and»
5 VendOR iMPLiCATiOns & AnALysis                      market»entrants
  5.1»Overview
  5.2»The»Development»of»Various»Market»Segments
  5.3»Heat»Map»for»Smart»Grid»Vendors
Key Findings
Findings below are a subset of the complete list available in the report’s executive summary
»» GTM Research expects the Smart Grid to grow from a $5.6 billion dollar market in 2010 to $9.6 billion in 2015

»» AMI is now the largest market segment of Smart Grid with approximately 45% of the total market share.
  GTM Research expects AMI’s market share to shrink to 26% by 2015»


»» We expect Distribution Automation (DA) to grow significantly to become the dominant sector of the
  smart grid, as a fully networked grid would allow for virtually every piece of grid equipment to have either
  automation or remote control»


»» The inability of utilities to adequately explain the benefits of smart meters and other smart grid
  technologies to their customers presents an enormous risk for the future of the Smart Grid and to the
  vendors in this emerging industry»


»» Some industry experts express great doubt about the smart meter emerging as the gateway into the
  home, and suggest a smart meter should be limited to providing just the basic metrology – putting forth the
  question: how smart does the meter need to be?»


»» With less than 100 million smart meters currently installed worldwide, the business opportunities for
  metering and network players remain substantial over the next few decades.  Other than the U.S., the other
  3 major markets for smart grid technologies will be the EU, China and India»


»» Because of varying needs and varying legacy systems of utilities, no off-the-shelf end-to-end “smart grid”
  solution will suffice.  Systems Integrations remains, and will remain for the foreseeable future, one of the
  principal challenges of the Smart Grid»


»» GTM Research believes that Home Energy Management Systems and Networks will not receive a critical
  level of penetration over the next 5-year period»


»» Any energy management player whose business model is solely tied to the growth and installation of smart
  meters appears risky, as it remains questionable if meters will continue to be the gateway into the home over the
  long term. Broadband and/or other services could also be the “doorway” to the smart energy consumer.»


»» There are 4 main components of a smart meter that determine its price. They are as follows: 1) the
  metrology 2) remote disconnect 3) the “comm board” and 4) the HAN communications board which send the
  signal into the home.»


»» Despite all the excitement that surrounds home energy management, we fundamentally remain
  unconvinced that home area networks or smart homes will reach a critical mass, or even a meaningful level
  of penetration, over the next 5 year period
Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015
David. J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM Research


Fax completed order to +1 781 846 0391

                US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010-2015 Report - Single User License                                                           $2995
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For more information visit www.gtmresearch.com
                 Tate Ishimuro                 David J. Leeds
C O N TA C T:




                 Research Sales Associate      Smart Grid Analyst
                 ishimuro@greentechmedia.com   leeds@gtmresearch.com
                 +1 415 777 9917

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Us smart-grid-forecast-2010

  • 1. Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015 David J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM Research The» pace» of» Smart» Grid» integration» and» related» technology» advancement» is» increasing» in» the» US» due» to» looming»generation»burdens»from»renewables»build-out»and»emerging»networked»grid»applications»like»electric» vehicles.»This»new»power»scenario»has»placed»the»onus»on»utilities»to»integrate»Smart»Grid»technology»to»cope» with»load»management»and»next-gen»obstacles»such»as»‘green»blackouts’.»» GTM Research’s Smart Grid Market Forecast , 2010 – 2015 In»this»report,»GTM»Research»anticipates»the» Smart»Grid»market»to»grow»from»$5.6»billion» in»2010»to»$9.6»billion»in»2015.»»We»formulate» this» forecast» by» compiling» outlooks» for» the» following» submarket» segments:» advanced» metering» infrastructure» (AMI),» distribution» automation»(DA),»home»area»networks»(HAN)» and»smart»utility»enterprise.»»In»addition,»the» report» examines» the» factors» that» will» lead» to» continued» smart» meters» rollout» in» the» near» future;» we» anticipate» a» 48%» national» source: GTM Research deployment»by»2015.» Note: Complete forecast data available in the report However,»the»eventual»build-out»of»the»true»Smart»Grid»must»also»include»adding»communications»capabilities»and» intelligence»to»the»actual»distribution»grid,»as»well»as»the»back-end»utility»systems,»in»order»to»make»greatest»use»of» this»newly»generated»data.»»While»these»deployments»will»take»decades»to»reach»full»penetration,»utility»executives» are» beginning» to» recognize» that» a» robust» communications» architecture» will» be» the» backbone» upon» which» all» future»applications»will»be»built,»and»that»without»a»smart»enterprise,»the»nation’s»grids»will»not»be»suffi »»ciently» intelligent»to»proactively»manage»demand,»re-route»power»around»disturbances,»integrate»distributed»renewables» and»electric»transportation,»and»most»importantly,»to»continue»to»offer»reliable»and»affordable»electricity.»» » » US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010–2015» analyzes» the» evolving» issues» of» the» Smart» Grid» industry.» » GTM» Research’s» analysis» includes» the» most» critical» market» trends,» a» detailed» forecast» of» the» market» over» the» next» fi»ve»years,»and»provides»an»update»of»our»Smart»Grid»Vendor»Taxonomy,»in»addition»to»offering»insight»into»how» » different»players»and»sub-markets»are»positioned»to»move»forward.»» »
  • 2. RePORT TABLe OF COnTenTs: 1 eXeCUTiVe sUMMARy & Key Findings Questions for Competitive Decision-making: 2 gUiding MARKeT insigHTs And TRends How» large» is» the» total» Smart» Grid» market» and» 2.1»Industry»Mega-Themes what»are»the»sizes»of»the»industry’s»sub-markets? 2.2»Advanced»Metering»Infrastructure»(AMI) 2.3»Distribution»Automation»(DA) What» are» the» underlying» costs» of» major» 2.4»Smart»Enterprise components»that»contribute»to»the»Smart»Grid? 2.5»Home-Area»Networks»(HAN)» 2.6»Future»Trends How»will»the»Smart»Grid»evolve»beyond»smart» 3 UPdATed sMART gRid TAXOnOMy meter»deployment? 3.1»Introduction Which»applications»and»technologies»will»play» 3.2»Taxonomy:»“Leading»Players»by»Market»» » » »»»»Segment”»»Tier»1 a»greater»role»in»next»phase»grid»build-out? 3.3»Taxonomy:»“Leading»Players»by»Market»» » » »»»»Segment”»Tier»2 Which» Smart» Grid» submarket» is» primed» for» 4 sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT 2010–2015, MOdeL business»growth»opportunities»through»2015? AssUMPTiOns & insigHTs What»are»the»best»ways»utilities»can»apply»their» 4.1»Advanced»Meter»Infrastructure»(AMI)»» » resources»to»optimize»Smart»Grid»investments? » »»»Forecast 4.1.1»Meter»Forecast 4.1.2»Meter»Count 4.1.3»Costs 4.1.3.1»Smart»Meters 4.1.3.2»Meter»Install 4.1.3.3»AMI»Network 4.1.3.4»Systems»Integration»and»IT»for»AMI Value-added Elements: 4.1.4»The»AMI»forecast 4.2»Distribution»Automation»(DA)»Forecast Overall» market» outlooks» with» drill» down» to» 4.2.1»Introduction specifi »c»submarket»projections 4.2.2»Methodology 4.2.2.1»Aging»Grid»Assets 4.2.2.2»Rate»of»adoption Bottom-up»forecast»analysis 4.2.2.3»Forecasted»Multiplier 4.2.3»The»Distribution»Automation»Forecast Component» costs» from» smart» meter» 4.3»The»Home»Area»Network»(HAN)»Forecast 4.3.1»Introduction communication»cards»to»capacitor»banks 4.3.2»Smart»Home»Devices 4.3.3»The»Home»Area»Network»Forecast Vendor» implications» within» evolving» Smart» 4.4»The»Smart»Enterprise»Forecast 4.4.1»Introduction Grid»ecosystem 4.4.2»The»Smart»Enterprise»Forecast Competitive» positioning» of» start-ups» and» 5 VendOR iMPLiCATiOns & AnALysis market»entrants 5.1»Overview 5.2»The»Development»of»Various»Market»Segments 5.3»Heat»Map»for»Smart»Grid»Vendors
  • 3. Key Findings Findings below are a subset of the complete list available in the report’s executive summary »» GTM Research expects the Smart Grid to grow from a $5.6 billion dollar market in 2010 to $9.6 billion in 2015 »» AMI is now the largest market segment of Smart Grid with approximately 45% of the total market share. GTM Research expects AMI’s market share to shrink to 26% by 2015» »» We expect Distribution Automation (DA) to grow significantly to become the dominant sector of the smart grid, as a fully networked grid would allow for virtually every piece of grid equipment to have either automation or remote control» »» The inability of utilities to adequately explain the benefits of smart meters and other smart grid technologies to their customers presents an enormous risk for the future of the Smart Grid and to the vendors in this emerging industry» »» Some industry experts express great doubt about the smart meter emerging as the gateway into the home, and suggest a smart meter should be limited to providing just the basic metrology – putting forth the question: how smart does the meter need to be?» »» With less than 100 million smart meters currently installed worldwide, the business opportunities for metering and network players remain substantial over the next few decades. Other than the U.S., the other 3 major markets for smart grid technologies will be the EU, China and India» »» Because of varying needs and varying legacy systems of utilities, no off-the-shelf end-to-end “smart grid” solution will suffice. Systems Integrations remains, and will remain for the foreseeable future, one of the principal challenges of the Smart Grid» »» GTM Research believes that Home Energy Management Systems and Networks will not receive a critical level of penetration over the next 5-year period» »» Any energy management player whose business model is solely tied to the growth and installation of smart meters appears risky, as it remains questionable if meters will continue to be the gateway into the home over the long term. Broadband and/or other services could also be the “doorway” to the smart energy consumer.» »» There are 4 main components of a smart meter that determine its price. They are as follows: 1) the metrology 2) remote disconnect 3) the “comm board” and 4) the HAN communications board which send the signal into the home.» »» Despite all the excitement that surrounds home energy management, we fundamentally remain unconvinced that home area networks or smart homes will reach a critical mass, or even a meaningful level of penetration, over the next 5 year period
  • 4. Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015 David. J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM Research Fax completed order to +1 781 846 0391 US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010-2015 Report - Single User License $2995 US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010-2015 Report - Enterprise User License $4995 Preferred Format PDF Hardcopy (add $100) Payment Method Please send an invoice Credit Card: Amex Mastercard Visa Name Company Street City State Country Zip/Postal Code Phone Number Credit Card Number Expiration CVV Signature Email Total (including shipping) to be charged $ * For shipping outside the U.S, a shipping fee of $100 will be added to the order. For more information visit www.gtmresearch.com Tate Ishimuro David J. Leeds C O N TA C T: Research Sales Associate Smart Grid Analyst ishimuro@greentechmedia.com leeds@gtmresearch.com +1 415 777 9917