The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

1. Market Opportunity,
not Magic
Scott Rafer,
@E27 Unconference 2009

2. Losing unique status

3. Startup Capitals by 2015
London + Tel Aviv
Beijing + Shanghai

4. Startup Capitals by 2020?
Bangalore
Buenos Aires
Singapore

5. Critical mass

6. Success builds on founder success

7. Defining success

8. Defining two exceptions

9. Too unlikely

10. Too little benefit
to founders

11. It’s just math

12. A few million $ of revenue

13. $
A few /user/year

14. Small % penetration in years 1 to 3

15. Huge audience required

16. $ * *

17. $2 * 3% * 50M = $3M
Just for example

20. Market size matters most

21. Only China is big enough

22. English-speaking countries
Europe + Middle East
Latin America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
*Japan and Korea are different

23. DVD DRM Regions

24. Back to Friendster

25. Capture 1 or 2 regions

26. Very rough examples to
show early scale

27. $2 * 5% * 200M = $10M
Boring and linear as we like it

28. $__ * 25% * 200M = $__M
Huge penetration,
but multiplying by zero?

29. $2 * 2% * 200M = $8M
Scaling from Slovenia

30. $3 * 5% * 200M = $15M
Nailed the model & acquired fast

31. Copy the German cloners!

32. Simplicity is all

33. Be late or be boring

34. Directories

35. Customer Lists

36. Analytics

37. Assemble and Sell Data

38. Happy to help as I have time,
@rafer