More Related Content
Similar to KEY INVESTOR’S RETURNS AND VALUE CONSIDERATIONS IN PVE PROJECT
Similar to KEY INVESTOR’S RETURNS AND VALUE CONSIDERATIONS IN PVE PROJECT (20)
More from pvsinbloom (20)
KEY INVESTOR’S RETURNS AND VALUE CONSIDERATIONS IN PVE PROJECT
- 1. PVs in Bloom Seminar
PVE’s from the investors and M&A angle
24th November 2010
CORPORATE FINANCE
ADVISORY
- 3. 2© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
2007 20102009 20112008
Rete Rinnovabile S.r.l. (IT)
150MWp
Montalto di Castro PVE (IT)
20MWp
GP Energia SpA (IT)
11MWp
BP Solar Italia Srl (IT)
5MWp
First Solar GmbH (DE)
53MWp
Aldesa Construcciones SA (ES)
46MWp
Grupo Tagoro (ES)
20MWp
Alcala de Gurrea (ES)
2MWp
Almeria; Solon (ES)
30MWp
Renewagy A/S (ES)
45MWp
5.25MWp PVE (ES)
5MWp
Jimenez Belinchon SA (Malagon PVE) (DE)
7MWp
3x PVE in Spain (ES)
35MWp
Pozohondo solar farm (ES)
4MWp
Aleph Sun Capital (ES)
5MWp
Foresta Capital (ES)
14MWp
Montebalito (Abenojar & Herencia PVE) (ES)
14MWp
Solar farm (Located in Alange) (ES)
15MWp
Solar farm (Located in Alange) (ES)
8MWp
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Apr 07 Nov 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jul 09 Jan 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Sep 11
€milper1MWp
Historic enterprise value per 1 MWp
PVE M&A market in Europe
PVE market values are declining, ranging between €2mil. to €4mil. per MWp in 2010
Note: RepresentsonlyEuropeantransactions
Source: Mergermarket,KPMGAnalysis
- 4. 3© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
PVE M&A market in Europe
Most of the PVE buyers are financial investors targeting PVEs in Spain and Italy
Transactions by type of investors:
Financial investors
Most of the buyers comprise financial investors, pension and other
investment funds.
Funds may offer higher purchase prices as they tend to require lower
rates of return,
most of them would also however require seller remaining operating
the PVE
Strategic investors:
Due to usually higher required returns on equity (around 20%+),
purchase prices can be expected lower.
Transactions by geography
As expected most of the transactions are focused on Spain and Italy
PVE’s given their higher irradiaion levels ( above 2,000 hours per year)
68%
52% 50%
21%
37% 38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share in
# of deals
Value
(enterprise value)
Volume
(MWp)
Share of PVEs in M&A by Type of investor
Strategic
Financial
investors
68%
52% 50%
21%
37% 38%
11% 10% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share in
# of deals
Value
(enterprise value)
Volume
(MWp)
Share of PVEs in M&A by Geographic location of PVE
Germany
Italy
Spain
By Type of Investor By Geography Location of PVE
Source: Mergermarket,KPMGAnalysis Source: Mergermarket,KPMGAnalysis
- 5. 4© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Illustrative 1MWp PVE model
Based on 2010 FIT, the IRRs can range between 10% to 20%
Based on the 2010 conditions PVE sufficiently attractive also thanks to considerable financial leverage:
Assumptions of the illustrative PVE 1MWp financial model
Reference / benchmark Model
Min. Max assumption
Production/ Operational
CAPEX (EUR/Wp) 2.5 4.5 3
OPEX (EUR/Wp) 40 70 50
Irradiation (h/year) 900 1090 1,090
Selling price (FIT) (EUR/kWh) ?? 0.425 0.425
Installed capacity (MWp) n/a n/a 1
Operating period (Years) 15 25 20
Financial assumptions
Fin. leverage
(%) 0% 80% 80%
(D/ (D+E))
Loan Interest Rate (% p.a.) 3.00% 8.00% 6.00%
Loan repayment
period
(years) 5 15 12
Depreciation period (Years) 10 20 20
Corporate Income
Tax
(%) 19% 19% 19%
Inlfation (% p.a.) 0% 7% 0%
Financial performance
1st Year Avg. 20yrs 20 years total
Production (MWh) 1,090 1,011 20,220
Sales (EUR'000) 463 364 7,286
EBITDA (EUR'000) 413 318 6,358
FCFF (EUR'000) 391 295 5,891
FCFE (EUR'000) 104 122 2,433
Valuation ratios
15 years 20 years 25 years
Project IRR (%) 8.8% 9.4% 9.7%
Equity IRR (%) 15.3% 16.3% 16.7%
Enterprise value (at
15% Disc. rate)
(EUR'000) 610 651 667
Equity value (at
15% Disc. rate)
(EUR'000) 3,010 3,051 3,067
8.8% 9.4% 9.7%
15 years 20 years 25 years
Project IRR based on the project
lifespan
15.3%
16.3% 16.7%
15 years 20 years 25 years
Equity IRR based on the project lifespan
Source: KPMGAnalysis
Source: KPMGAnalysis
Source: KPMGAnalysisSource: PVResources.com,LazardInvestments;KPMGAnalysis
Source: KPMGAnalysis
- 6. 5© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
22.1%
17.0%
10.7%
11.0%
14.1%
17.4%
16.1%
11.8%
15.7%
22.2%
22.1%
20.6%
15.3%
18.1%
5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
2.94
3.08
2.83
2.84
2.96
3.09
3.05
3.16
3.03
3.27
3.26
3.15
3.01
3.11
2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40
Sensitivity testing values Equity IRR (%) Project IRR (%) Project value (EUR per Wp)
-10%
Default
value
+10%
CAPEX (EUR/Wp) 2.7 3 3.3
OPEX (EUR/Wp) 45 50 55
Irradiation (h/year) 981 1090 1199
Selling price
(FIT)
(EUR/kWh
)
0.382 0.425 0.4675
Debt /
(Debt + Equity)
(%) 72% 80% 88%
Loan Interest
Rate
(% p.a.) 5.4% 6.0% 6.6%
Loan repayment
period
(years) 11 12 13
Key factors affecting financial performance of PVE
The most influential financial factors for PVE are Price/FIT and CAPEX (development costs
Key factors affecting PVE projects are:
CAPEX expenditures – 10% saving represent increase in Equity IRR of 6% points
Electricity selling price – 10% increase translates into 6% points.
Irradiation – even though of a significant importance, there are only limited opportunities to influence this factor, given the geographic boundaries.
16.3% 3.05
11.1%
9.6%
7.7%
7.8%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
8.0%
9.2%
11.1%
11.0%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
7.0% 9.0% 11.0%
9.4%
Source: KPMGAnalysis
- 7. 6© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Key factors affecting financial performance of PVE
What would be the target CAPEX under certain FIT/selling price to achieve required rate of return
Following chart illustrates under assumed condition what is the relation between various combinations of electricity selling prices and CAPEX costs
In order to allow for acceptable investment returns and feasibility of PVE’s following correlation should be taken into consideration
If selling price for example would be proposed 387 Eur/MWh, maximum development cost would need to reach 2.7 mil. EUR per MWp, in order to achieve equity rate of
return above 15%.
Equity IRR of PVE as combination of FIT/selling price and CAPEX per Wp
CAPEX (EUR per Wp)
% change 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80%
EUR 3.0 2.85 2.7 2.55 2.4 2.25 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6
Sellingprice(EURperkWh)
0% 0.425 16.3% 19.0% 22.1% 25.6% 29.6% 34.1% 39.4% 52.8% 71.6% 99.7% 146.4% 239.5%
-10% 0.383 11.0% 13.2% 15.8% 18.7% 22.1% 26.0% 30.6% 42.3% 59.0% 83.9% 125.4% 208.2%
-20% 0.340 6.1% 7.9% 10.0% 12.4% 15.1% 18.3% 22.1% 32.0% 46.4% 68.2% 104.5% 176.9%
-30% 0.298 1.7% 3.2% 4.8% 6.7% 8.8% 11.3% 14.3% 22.1% 33.9% 52.4% 83.5% 145.5%
-40% 0.255 0.0% -1.2% 0.2% 1.7% 3.4% 5.3% 7.5% 13.2% 22.1% 36.8% 62.5% 114.1%
-50% 0.213 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 5.8% 11.8% 22.1% 41.6% 82.7%
-60% 0.170 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% 3.7% 10.0% 22.1% 51.2%
-70% 0.128 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 7.6% 22.0%
-80% 0.085 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1%
-90% 0.043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-95% 0.021 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: KPMGAnalysis
- 8. 7© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Strategy and timing matters
When looking at IRR, timing of cash flows and exit strategy can significantly improve returns.
Time value of money plays important role in achieving profitability objectives
Detailed planning of steps, cash flows planning and exit strategies can significantly improve overall profitability of the project.
Investing and developing PVE for example after the peak season (summer) can result in 16.3% Equity IRR, whereas 19.5% can be reached when invested just before the
positive cash flows can be expected.
Improved IRR can be achieved when exiting the project to investor, who requires lower return on equity than IRR of the project.
Accelerated project – development and exit happen in the same
year
11.3%
19.5%
49.5%
8.3%
29.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Project IRR Financial
leveraging
(at 6% interest
rate)
Equity IRR Exit strategy
(at 15% required
equity return)
Developers final
IRR
9.4%
16.3%
20.2%
6.9%
3.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Project IRR Financial
leveraging
(at 6% interest
rate)
Equity IRR Exit strategy
(at 15% required
equity return)
Developers final
IRR
Year-over-year timing of the project – Development and exit
happen year after year.
Example of two theoretical timing variations of the same project:
1 Year1st Year 2nd Year
Source: KPMGAnalysis Source: KPMGAnalysis
- 9. 8© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Summary
Conclusion
PVE market price is declining
2010 prices ranged between 2 to 4 mil. EUR per MWp, very often at or below 3mil. EUR
Usual PVE acquisition targets represent PVEs located in Spain and Italy
This is due to combination of favorable geographical and climate factors (double irradiation
compared to Slovakia) and local regulatory support.
Very difficult to compete with under local Slovak conditions.
Main type of buyers of PVE represent financial investors
Looking for stable and secured investment returns.
Compared to strategic, can often offer higher price, due to lower equity returns required
compared to strategic ones.
Key factors affecting financial performance of PVE’s in the given geographic boundaries
are price and Capex
10% savings on development costs (CAPEX) (from 3€ to 2.7€ per Wp) alone can bring
additional 6 percent points in terms of Equity IRR.
On the other hand, 10% decline in prices (from € 425 to €382 per MWh) can result in in 5.4
percent point deterioration of Equity IRR
Investment attractiveness should be therefore carefully assessed in defining price regulation
policies.
Proper analysis, and planning can help achieve higher investment returns.
Cash flow planning, leveraging and exit strategy can significantly help reaching attractive
investment returns.
- 10. 9© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Contacts and disclaimer
Important notice:
This presentation has been prepared exclusively for the participants of PVs in Bloom conference held in 23rd and 24th of November 2010 and does not
carry any right of publication or disclosure to any other party. This presentation is incomplete without reference to and should be viewed solely in
conjunction with the oral briefing provided by KPMG. Neither this presentation nor its content may be used for any other purpose without prior written
consent of KPMG.
The information in this presentation is based upon publicly available information as well as information provided by the companies and reflects
prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are accordingly subject to change. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon
and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of any information available from public sources. All information
contained in this presentation are only for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon ore referred.
Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is
received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act upon such information without appropriate professional advice after a
thorough examination of the particular situation.
Whilst the information presented and views expressed in this presentation and the oral briefing have been prepared in good faith, KPMG accepts no
responsibility or liability to any party in connection with such information or views.
Contact details:
Katarína Virčíková
Transaction Services
Senior Associate,
KPMG Slovensko, spol. s r.o.
Tel: + 421-(2)-599 84 443
email: kvircikova@kpmg.sk
Ján Hurban
Corporate Finance
Senior Associate,
KPMG Slovensko, spol. s r.o.
Tel: + 421-(2)-599 84 487
email: jhurban@kpmg.sk
KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o.
Dvořákovo nábrežie 10
811 02 Bratislava
Slovakia
Tel.: +421-(2)-59984111
Fax: +421-2-59984888
Internet: www.kpmg.sk
- 11. 10© 2010 KPMG Slovensko spol. s r.o., the Slovak member firm of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Section heading
As much as 88% of all PVE targets are in Spain and Italy
Target Company Country Completed Bidder Company Seller Company
Capacity
(MWp)
Enterprise
Value EV/ MWp
Rete Rinnovabile
S.r.l.
IT Oct 10
Terra Firm a Capital
Partners Fund III
Terna - Rete Elettrica
Nazionale SpA
150.0 620.0 4.1
Montalto di Castro
PV power plant (20
MW alternating
IT Aug 10 Etrion Corporation SunPower Corporation 20.0 36.0 1.8
GP Energia SpA IT Jul 10 GWM Renewable Energy Solar Utility SpA 11.0 17.3 1.6
BP Solar Italia Srl
(Six Solar Parks)
IT May 10
Allianz Specialized
Investm ents Lim ited
BP Solar Italia Srl 5.0 30.0 6.0
First Solar Gm bH DE Mar 10 WealthCap Juwi Solar Gm bH 53.0 160.0 3.0
Aldesa
Construcciones SA
(9 Solar sites) (49%
ES Feb 10
NIBC European
Infrastructure Fund;
Am pere Equity Fund BV
Aldesa Construcciones
SA
46.0 54.8 1.2
Grupo Tagoro ES Nov 09 Anem oi Renovables SL Acevedo Reid SAT 20.0 70.0 3.5
Alcala de Gurrea
solar farm
ES Oct 09
Abraxa Integrated
Financial Solutions
RYC SL Energy and
Environm ent
2.0 20.0 10.0
Alm eria; Solon ES Oct 09
Konstantin Strasser
(Private Investor)
PI Power International
Ltd
30.0 87.5 2.9
Renewagy A/S ES Jun 09 Colexon Energy AG n/a 45.0 159.6 3.5
5.25MWp solar
photovoltaic plant
ES May 09
HgCapital Renewable
Power Partners Fund
Montebalito, SA;
Invercartera Energía
S.L.
5.3 35.0 6.7
Jim enez Belinchon
SA (Malagon Solar
Plant)
DE May 09 AES Solar Espana SL Jim enez Belinchon SA 7.0 35.0 5.0
Three solar
photovoltaic plants
in Spain (85%
ES Mar 09
HgCapital Renewable
Power Partners Fund
360 Corporate; AIG
Financial Products
Corporation
35.4 300.0 8.5
Pozohondo solar
farm (4MWp)
ES Feb 09
Alten Energias
Renovables
n/a 4.0 26.0 6.5
Aleph Sun Capital ES Aug 08 Abaco Energy SA Aleph Sun Capital 4.7 37.0 7.9
Foresta Capital ES Jul 08 Im pax Group plc n/a 14.0 44.5 3.2
Montebalito
(Abenojar and
Herencia
ES Jul 08 Elidecos Spain SL
Caixa Catalunya
Invercartera SA;
Montebalito, SA
14.0 27.3 2.0
Solar farm (Located
in Alange)
ES Feb 08
Alten Energias
Renovables
n/a 15.2 65.0 4.3
Solar farm (Located
in Alange)
ES Feb 08
Alten Energias
Renovables
n/a 8.0 60.0 7.5
68%
52% 50%
21%
37% 38%
11% 10% 12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Share in
# of deals
Value
(enterprise value)
Volume
(MWp)
Share of M&A deals by country of origin
Germany
Italy
Spain