1. PVs in BLOOMPVs in BLOOM
PERSPECTIVES OF PV SECTOR IN EUROPE
23 November 201023 November 2010
Dott. Giorgio Dovigi
Italian-Slovak Chamber of Commerce
2. The PVs in Bloom Project
A project for land valorisation within a strategic eco-sustainable approach to local
development has been funded within the Intelligent Energy Europe
Programme of the European Commission.
The Project is managed by an international consortium, led by Unioncamere del
Veneto (the Regional Union of Chambers of Commerce of Veneto, North-East Italy)
and composed by 9 partners from 6 EU countries:
- the Energy Agency of Sassari Province (Italy);
- the Chamber of Commerce Development Company of Central Macedonia
(Greece);
- the Development Company of Municipality of Milies (Greece);
- the University of Jaen (Spain);
- the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Shipping of Valencia (Spain);
- the Institute of Physics of the Lublin University of Technology (Poland);
- Innovation Region Styria (Austria);
- the Italian-Slovak Chamber of Commerce (Slovakia).
3. The PVs in Bloom Project
The Pvs in Bloom Project was created with the aim of supporting the
installation by public and private investors of ground photovoltaic
plants of small and medium dimensions with a power range from 50
kWp to 2-3 MWp in areas characterized by intrinsic, induced or latent
marginality (terrains that are no longer able to answer positively to
investments or that have exausted their primary and exclusive function).
The PVs in Bloom Project intends to promote the intelligent diffusion
of PVPPs across Europe according to functional and enviroment-friendly
criteria.
4. The RES growth in Europe has been driven by a
small number of member states
5. The RES growth in Europe has seen a limited
range
of technologies used
6. In the last 5 years started a growing awareness that PV utilization and
exploitation has the potential to act as:
- a tremendous development engine;
- a key sustainability factor at the European Regional and local level;
- other than a premium carrier for environmental sustainability;
- an important element in the battle against climate change;
- a key component of the solution in the struggle to improve
the security and reliability of energy supply;
- a welcome source of wealth and job creation.
9. PV INSTALLATION WILL REACH RECORDS
AGAIN IN 2010
Market size differs from XXL to M
XXL: Germany 6600 MW
XL: Italy, Czech Republic, USA, Japan 700-1100 MW
L: France, China, Spain, Belgium, Ontario 300-600 MW
M: Greece, Bulgaria 50-200 MW
A total of 13,5 GW of new installations is forecasted.
Largest grow is coming from Germany and Italy.
10. Germany is by far the largest PV market with 3.8 GWp new installed
capacity in 2009 and much more is forecasted by the end of 2010.
Due to an unexpected strong market growth and fast price decline, the German
parliament decided an additional reduction of PV FIT.
Expectation (due to oversupply): Reduced profit for PV investments in
Germany will increase the pressure on PV markets worldwide.
LOWER PRICES AND STRONGER COMPETITION
11. Despite the economic crisis, the PV market has continued to grow by
almost 15% a year in 2009 and 2010.
The World leader in 2008, Spain went down from 2600 MW to
only 69 MW due to financial crisis and possible cuts on FIT.
Italy and Czech Republic made impressive progress even if the future of
The Czech market seems very dark and also Italy, as Germany, cut FIT.
12. Possible changes of FIT by Governments
Reduction/End of FIT for ground mounted PV Systems (example: Spain and
France)
Retroactive cut of State guaranteed Feed in Tariffs;
Households using PV to generate electricity mainly for their own use will not be
probably subject to income tax on feed-in tariffs;
PV systems Building integrated on factories, hospitals and schools will be
probably reduced less drastically than ground mounted systems.
13. Possible retroactive reduction of FIT by Governments
Czech Republic: Solar tax retroactively applied to all ground-mountedolar tax retroactively applied to all ground-mounted
PV installations built in 2009 - 2010.PV installations built in 2009 - 2010.
Spain: Retroactive cut of 30% of State guaranteed Feed in Tariffs for
Solar Energy;
Very dangerous outcomes for the Governments:
• Law suits and arbitration proceedings amounting to several EUR billions;
• Loss of investors confidence;
• Credit rating: a potential reduction in the country’s rating leading to higher
funding cost of the state budget deficit;
14. Not an exactly friendly grid connection
Number of months for getting grid connection (considering also approval of Grid Connection)
19. Evolution of the World annual PV Market
Europe is leading with almost 16 GW of total installed capacity in
2009, representing about 70% of the World cumulative PV power
installed at the end of 2009.
Japan (2.6 GW) and the US (1.6 GW) are following behind.
China makes its entry into the TOP 10 of the World PV markets and is
expected to become a major player in the coming years.
21. Production of modules by geographies
C-Si Crystalline Silicon cells and modules production capacity seemed to be
dominated by Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers (above 50% in both
cases).
European production capacity counted for almost 20% for c-Si cells and almost
30% for c-Si modules. In Japan, both figures are below 10% whereas the USA
production counts for only 5%.
The picture is different when considering solar grade silicon production capacity
with up to 40% in the USA, followed by Europe and China, both having similar
levels of production capacity (almost 20%) and Japan and the rest of Asia (both
slightly above 10%).
With respect to Thin Film production capacities, Europe leads with around
30%, whereas China, the USA, Japan and the rest of Asia (mainly Malaysia) each
count for about 10 to 20% of Thin Film production capacities.
23. Production capacity vs. Market Outlook
Is expected the industry’s production capacity to grow with a
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of around 20-30% for the
period 2010-2014.
The upstream segment (silicon production) is expected to have
the highest growth with about 30%.
This is because initial year-to-year growth rates (until 2011-2012)
are higher, which is a direct consequence of the silicon shortage of
the last years.
C-Si cell production capacity as well as module (combined c-Si and
Thin Film) production capacity is expected to grow with a CAGR of
around 22% during the next 5 years.
24. World PV Module Supplier Rankings 2009
Company Name Change 08 - 09
1. First Solar, Inc. (USA) 2
2. Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd. (China) -1
3. Sharp Electronic Corporation (Japan) -1
4. Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd (China) -
5. Trina Solar Limited (China) 2
6. Sunpower Corporation (USA) -
7. Kyocera Corporation (Japan) -2
8. Canadian Solar Inc. (China/Canada) 1
9. SolarWorld AG (Germany) 1
10. Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd (Japan) -2
26. Inverters: supply/demand scenario
In the first three quarters of 2010 inverter suppliers enjoyed
tremendously high demand and tight supply.
Planned inverter production may exceed actual demand by
more than 2 GW in Q1 2011 leading inevitably to large
inventory build. Seems very likely that inverter suppliers will
begin to see major order cancellations and large price drops
in early 2011.
Production capacity has been massively increased: more than
doubled in 2010 and by the end of the year will exceed 30 GW.
The improvement in component supply has allowed major
suppliers to quickly increase their production, massively increasing
supply.
27. Inverters: supply/demand scenario
Although many new entrants have emerged, it is very clear that the market
remains dominated by the top 15 suppliers, both in shipment terms and
also in terms of available capacity.
Shift in DemandAnother major hurdle inverter suppliers may need to
overcome is a dramatic shift in demand that is predicted to occur in 2011. In
2010 one of the largest drivers of industry growth was the small commercial
sector in Germany which will install around 4 GW.
Next year however, high growth is predicted for much larger installations
in other regions such as the USA, Canada and China. In addition new
markets, like the UK and India, will provide further substantial opportunities
and inverter suppliers may have some real challenges shifting away from
stagnating markets to capitalize on these.
30. In the Moderate scenario, the European market could experience a
rise up to 8.2 GW in 2010 followed by a return to less than 6 GW in
2011 and 8 GW in 2014.
For the time being, it is believed that the German market will not
repeat its forecast 2010 figures in 2011, reducing that way the
market size in Europe. In the Policy-Driven scenario, Europe could install
as much as 11.5 GW in 2010 and up to 13.5 GW in 2014, after a
slowdown in 2011 and 2012.
For 2010, is expected the World PV market to grow up to around
10.1.GW under the Moderate scenario. Under the Policy Driven scenario,
the World PV market could reach around 15.5 GW, up from 8.2 GW and
12.7 GW respectively in our previous estimates.
Market forecasts: moderate and policy driven
31. Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
g.dovigi@camitslovakia.skg.dovigi@camitslovakia.sk
www.pvsinbloom.euwww.pvsinbloom.eu
blog.pvsinbloom.eublog.pvsinbloom.eu
