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Understanding the  Stock Market   Speaker Position Company smart woman securities © 2010 Smart Woman Securities.  Materials are for SWS members’ use only. All rights reserved. Date
Announcements ,[object Object]
Last Seminar Recap ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tonight’s Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Update ,[object Object],[object Object]
Market Update Example Slide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction to Stocks
What are Stocks? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What are Stocks? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Market Cap = How many shares outstanding x  Current price of one share of stock Example: McDonald’s (MCD): 1.12 billion shares x $70/share = $78.4 billion market cap
Stock Classifications type of stock   what kinds of investment       example value growth income Refers to a stock that is undervalued in terms of its trading price v. book value.  Typically, such a stock has been sold off by investors for reasons such as litigation, product issues, marketing.  Book value of the company based on tangible assets, however, exceed the current market price Orleans Homebuilders (OHB) A growth stock is a company with incredible growth potential because of its market, product, segment or situation. For example, pharmaceutical companies manufacturing specific drugs may be considered growth stocks.  Growth stocks are generally hard to identify and are usually riskier Google (GOOG) Income stocks are companies with a reliable track record of paying out dividends on a regular basis.  Income stocks are very popular with retirees or investors who want a steady inflow of income Southern Company (SO) Source: moneyinstructor.com
Stock Classifications type of stock   what kinds of investment       example cyclical Typically, cyclical stocks are companies whose earnings tend to follow the business cycle. Cyclical stocks are often more risky than stocks in companies that are less subject to changes in the business cycle. Highly cyclical industries include oil and other natural resources, steel, and housing.  Caterpillar (CAT) Source: moneyinstructor.com defensive Prices of these stocks tend to remain stable or perhaps rise during periods of economic downturn. During economic upturns, they tend to show poorer results relative to other companies. Defensive stocks produce goods or services that are generally still in demand during an economic downturn, such as food, beverages, and pharmaceuticals. Clorox (CLX) blue-chip Refers to a company with a well established reputation that has a long record of financial stability.  Usually these companies pay out dividends.  “Blue-chip” designation is debatable General Electric (GE)
The Stock Market
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Stock Market
Stock Exchanges ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Stock Index
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],U.S. Broad Stock Indices
Stock Returns
Why Do Stock Prices Change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why Do Stock Prices Change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stock Returns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stock Returns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Commissions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dividends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Taxes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investing in Stocks
Taking a Long Term View Source:   Neuberger Berman and Standard & Poor’s. Please see Additional Disclosures page for complete index description. The data presented herein represents securities industry market data as of the dates specified. It does not represent Neuberger Berman performance nor does it reflect the fees and expenses associated with managing a portfolio. Indices are unmanaged, and the figures for the index shown do not reflect any fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. We strongly recommend that these factors be considered before an investment decision is made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Please note: This chart is presented in a logarithmic scale, which shows the index’s gains or losses on a percentage basis, for ease of comparison.  (Log. Scale) S&P 500 Index – Month-End Values  (January 1950 –  December 2005) Escalation of Vietnam War; Kent State Shootings 1962 Market Panic; Cuban Missile Crisis Prime Rate Hits 21% Persian Gulf War 1987 Market Panic 9/11 Attacks Korean Conflict  Heightens Dollar Hits All-Time Low Price Controls; Nixon Resigns; Oil Embargo War in Iraq
Stocks Can Be Negative But … 0 Year to Date - through December 31, 2002 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0.0% 31.7% 23.9% 18.4% -1.0% 52.6% 31.6% 6.5% -10.8% 43.4% 12.0% 0.5% 26.9% -8.7% 22.8% 16.5% 12.5% -10.1% 24.0% 11.1% -8.5% 3.9% 14.3% 19.0% -14.7% -26.5% 37.2% 23.9% -7.2% 6.6% 18.6% 32.5% -4.9% 21.5% 22.6% 6.3% 31.7% 18.7% 5.3% 16.6% 31.7% -3.1% 30.5% 7.6% 10.1% 1.3% 37.6% 23.0% 33.4% 28.6% 21.0% -9.1% -11.9% -22.1% Percentage Gain or Loss Copyright © 2003 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved. • 14047 West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048  • 1-800-272-6355 • Internet:  www.crandallpierce.com Sources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Copyright © 2003 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved. This copyright protected illustration is for internal use only. Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part  including the data contained herein, without prior written permission from Crandall, Pierce & Company. The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable.  It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 40 53 13 75% 100% 25% 20.94% 13.19% -10.65% Positive All Years Negative Number of Years Percentage of Years Average Return 0
…  Make Money Over Time And ... Source: Standard & Poor’s, Neuberger Berman.  Please see Additional Disclosures page for complete index description.   The data presented herein represents securities industry market data as of the dates specified. It does not represent Neuberger Berman performance nor does it reflect the fees and expenses associated with managing a portfolio. Indices are unmanaged, and the figures for the index shown do not reflect any fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. We strongly recommend that these factors be considered before an investment decision is made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Best 10 Years:   20.08% 95th Percentile:   18.32% Median :   11.07% 5th Percentile:   01.50% Worst 10 Years:  -00.85% S&P 500: 10-Year Rolling Returns Annualized, 1935-2005
Over the Long Term Outperform $13,706 12.7% $63 5.3% Ending Value Average Return $2,657 10.4% $18 3.7% $11 3.0% Hypothetical value of $1 invested in 1926. Source: Ibbotson Associates, Neuberger Berman. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Small Company stocks represented by the fifth capitalization quintile of stocks on the NYSE for 1926-1981 and performance of the Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) Small Company Fund thereafter, Large Company Stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general; Government Bonds represented by 5-year US Government Bonds; Cash is represented by the 30-day U.S. Treasury Bill. Please note that indices are unmanaged and do not take into account any fees or expenses of investing in the individual securities that they track, and that individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Data about the performance of these indices is prepared or obtained by Neuberger Berman and includes reinvestment of all dividends and capital gain distributions. See Appendix for complete description of each index. 1926-2005
The Potential of Stocks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Tax Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tax and Inflation Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risks to Consider ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Major Investment Risks Defined ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risk Considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Company Risk and Market Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Number of stocks in portfolio ,[object Object]
Investor Behavior
Behavioral Finance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tulip Bubble (1634-1637) ,[object Object]
Tech Bubble (1995-2000) Source: Bigcharts.com The tech bubble shown through stock prices
________________ Source: Strategic Insight. Indices are unmanaged, and the figures for the index shown include reinvestment of all dividends and capital gain distributions and do not reflect any fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. We strongly recommend that these factors be considered before an investment decision is made. The data presented herein represents securities industry market data as of the date specified. It does not represent Neuberger Berman performance nor does it reflect the fees and expenses associated with managing a portfolio. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Money Flowing into Mutual Funds – Tech / Telecom ,[object Object],($ billions) March 13, 2000:  NASDAQ peaks at 5049 Don’t Follow the Herd
Housing Bubble (early 2000s-2007)
Dangers of Market Timing Annualized Returns for Hypothetical $10,000 Investment in the S&P 500 (10 Years Ending December 31, 2006) End Value Return Fully invested $22,447 8.42% Minus 10 best days $13,985 3.41% Minus 20 best days $9,632 (0.37%) Minus 30 best days $6,909 (3.63%)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Investing Tips 16
Diversification in Stocks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Year Returns – Period Ending 12/31/00
Lessons From Successful Investors
Peter Lynch – Fidelity  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wikipedia.com Harvard SWS members with Peter Lynch
Lynch’s Philosophy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],"Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot is probably going to run it." "If you stay half-alert, you can pick the spectacular performers right from your place of business or out of the neighborhood shopping mall, and long before Wall Street discovers them." Lynch chose one company, Hanes, in the 1970s because his wife bought and loved its new L’Eggs pantyhose line — the first department-store-quality pantyhose sold to American women via supermarkets
Warren Buffett ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Original SWS Founding Team with Warren Buffett
Buffett’s Philosophy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wikipedia.com, investopedia.com
Seminar Recap ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Coming Up

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Seminar 2

  • 1. Understanding the Stock Market Speaker Position Company smart woman securities © 2010 Smart Woman Securities. Materials are for SWS members’ use only. All rights reserved. Date
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  • 10. Stock Classifications type of stock what kinds of investment example value growth income Refers to a stock that is undervalued in terms of its trading price v. book value.  Typically, such a stock has been sold off by investors for reasons such as litigation, product issues, marketing. Book value of the company based on tangible assets, however, exceed the current market price Orleans Homebuilders (OHB) A growth stock is a company with incredible growth potential because of its market, product, segment or situation. For example, pharmaceutical companies manufacturing specific drugs may be considered growth stocks. Growth stocks are generally hard to identify and are usually riskier Google (GOOG) Income stocks are companies with a reliable track record of paying out dividends on a regular basis.  Income stocks are very popular with retirees or investors who want a steady inflow of income Southern Company (SO) Source: moneyinstructor.com
  • 11. Stock Classifications type of stock what kinds of investment example cyclical Typically, cyclical stocks are companies whose earnings tend to follow the business cycle. Cyclical stocks are often more risky than stocks in companies that are less subject to changes in the business cycle. Highly cyclical industries include oil and other natural resources, steel, and housing. Caterpillar (CAT) Source: moneyinstructor.com defensive Prices of these stocks tend to remain stable or perhaps rise during periods of economic downturn. During economic upturns, they tend to show poorer results relative to other companies. Defensive stocks produce goods or services that are generally still in demand during an economic downturn, such as food, beverages, and pharmaceuticals. Clorox (CLX) blue-chip Refers to a company with a well established reputation that has a long record of financial stability.  Usually these companies pay out dividends.  “Blue-chip” designation is debatable General Electric (GE)
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  • 26. Taking a Long Term View Source: Neuberger Berman and Standard & Poor’s. Please see Additional Disclosures page for complete index description. The data presented herein represents securities industry market data as of the dates specified. It does not represent Neuberger Berman performance nor does it reflect the fees and expenses associated with managing a portfolio. Indices are unmanaged, and the figures for the index shown do not reflect any fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. We strongly recommend that these factors be considered before an investment decision is made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note: This chart is presented in a logarithmic scale, which shows the index’s gains or losses on a percentage basis, for ease of comparison. (Log. Scale) S&P 500 Index – Month-End Values (January 1950 – December 2005) Escalation of Vietnam War; Kent State Shootings 1962 Market Panic; Cuban Missile Crisis Prime Rate Hits 21% Persian Gulf War 1987 Market Panic 9/11 Attacks Korean Conflict Heightens Dollar Hits All-Time Low Price Controls; Nixon Resigns; Oil Embargo War in Iraq
  • 27. Stocks Can Be Negative But … 0 Year to Date - through December 31, 2002 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0.0% 31.7% 23.9% 18.4% -1.0% 52.6% 31.6% 6.5% -10.8% 43.4% 12.0% 0.5% 26.9% -8.7% 22.8% 16.5% 12.5% -10.1% 24.0% 11.1% -8.5% 3.9% 14.3% 19.0% -14.7% -26.5% 37.2% 23.9% -7.2% 6.6% 18.6% 32.5% -4.9% 21.5% 22.6% 6.3% 31.7% 18.7% 5.3% 16.6% 31.7% -3.1% 30.5% 7.6% 10.1% 1.3% 37.6% 23.0% 33.4% 28.6% 21.0% -9.1% -11.9% -22.1% Percentage Gain or Loss Copyright © 2003 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved. • 14047 West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • 1-800-272-6355 • Internet: www.crandallpierce.com Sources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Copyright © 2003 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved. This copyright protected illustration is for internal use only. Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission from Crandall, Pierce & Company. The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 40 53 13 75% 100% 25% 20.94% 13.19% -10.65% Positive All Years Negative Number of Years Percentage of Years Average Return 0
  • 28. … Make Money Over Time And ... Source: Standard & Poor’s, Neuberger Berman. Please see Additional Disclosures page for complete index description. The data presented herein represents securities industry market data as of the dates specified. It does not represent Neuberger Berman performance nor does it reflect the fees and expenses associated with managing a portfolio. Indices are unmanaged, and the figures for the index shown do not reflect any fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. We strongly recommend that these factors be considered before an investment decision is made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Best 10 Years: 20.08% 95th Percentile: 18.32% Median : 11.07% 5th Percentile: 01.50% Worst 10 Years: -00.85% S&P 500: 10-Year Rolling Returns Annualized, 1935-2005
  • 29. Over the Long Term Outperform $13,706 12.7% $63 5.3% Ending Value Average Return $2,657 10.4% $18 3.7% $11 3.0% Hypothetical value of $1 invested in 1926. Source: Ibbotson Associates, Neuberger Berman. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Small Company stocks represented by the fifth capitalization quintile of stocks on the NYSE for 1926-1981 and performance of the Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) Small Company Fund thereafter, Large Company Stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general; Government Bonds represented by 5-year US Government Bonds; Cash is represented by the 30-day U.S. Treasury Bill. Please note that indices are unmanaged and do not take into account any fees or expenses of investing in the individual securities that they track, and that individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Data about the performance of these indices is prepared or obtained by Neuberger Berman and includes reinvestment of all dividends and capital gain distributions. See Appendix for complete description of each index. 1926-2005
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  • 40. Tech Bubble (1995-2000) Source: Bigcharts.com The tech bubble shown through stock prices
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  • 42. Housing Bubble (early 2000s-2007)
  • 43. Dangers of Market Timing Annualized Returns for Hypothetical $10,000 Investment in the S&P 500 (10 Years Ending December 31, 2006) End Value Return Fully invested $22,447 8.42% Minus 10 best days $13,985 3.41% Minus 20 best days $9,632 (0.37%) Minus 30 best days $6,909 (3.63%)
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