Finger On The Pulse - Trends Briefing
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Finger On The Pulse - Trends Briefing
- 1. A Pulse trends special Trends Briefing – The Natives Are Coming
- 2. Why ‘The Natives Are Coming’?
- 3. Well, the technological landscape was created by these people
- 4. all born within a 13 month period February 1955 – March 1956 4
- 5. this is what the world looked like when they were growing up
- 6. they used new tools to recreate the old world
- 8. like a storage box
- 9. like a shop
- 10. But the people creating the new technological landscape (digital natives)…Grew up in a world that looked like this…
- 11. Using the internet at school
- 12. Using MSN Messenger rather than email
- 13. Using Wikipedia for information
- 14. Technology changes quicker than the people who use it It takes a generational shift for that technology to be used in truly different ways Digital Natives are using technology to rewrite the rules of how we do things
- 15. Their rules look like this… Come to me don’t make me come to youDon’t make me pay for contentDon’t make me do one thing at a timeDon’t create borders in my life‘In 5 minutes time’ means ‘5 minutes too late’
- 16. In Realtime Dynamic Pricing - - - - Quantify Everything What’s Your Intention? BRIC Attack Wisdom of One Game of Life Give A Little Love
- 17. Fluid
- 18. In Realtime
- 20. Realtime interaction with business
- 25. Acceptable once, but no more…….
- 26. Hot right now?
- 28. Things will also be made or broken in realtime
- 29. Success/Fail?
- 31. And things break themselves
- 32. #FAIL
- 33. ‘Not bi-polar but bi-winning’
- 34. In Realtime – So what? Realtime isn’t new, but expectation of realtime is. Realtime allows consumers and businesses to make more efficient decisions. Consumers don’t want old information on businesses, so businesses don’t want old information on consumers. HOWEVER…It’s not a panacea, nor is it always the right solution. Certain things can’t be interpreted and solved in realtime. And certain things shouldn’t be broadcast in realtime either….eh, Charlie?
- 35. Dynamic Pricing
- 36. Dynamic Pricing Consumers want to make better decisions based on what is happening RIGHT NOW. New technologies and services help businesses do the same - 2011 will see much more dynamic pricing. A single, fixed price is increasingly unable to cater to the needs of customers or businesses. 36
- 37. Group fun
- 39. Really?
- 40. Flash sales
- 44. The third example of dynamic pricing is one that I think will see a lot of success this year….
- 45. Location based
- 49. Why will Facebook Deals be successful? It’s not just for the big boys. Anywhere that is listed in Facebook Places can offer a deal. There’s no cost to use it, nor does Facebook take any commission from sales. Smartphones and Facebook are both genuinely mass-market. They already have scale. It can be used to drum up business at quiet times of the day – a deal can be offered for just an hour. Own a café and have made too much food? Offer 50% off all food for the rest of the day.
- 50. Dynamic pricing – so what? In the same way that providing realtime information helps businesses and consumers make more efficient decisions, so dynamic pricing helps business to adjust their offer to suit the circumstances. It’s flipping retail on its head. Beforehand we knew what we wanted, we went to the shop and we bought it. New technologies and a greater acceptance of more fluidity will contribute to the success of dynamic pricing. Most importantly perhaps, consumers are far more savvy nowadays – they need to know that they are getting a real deal.
- 51. In Realtime Dynamic Pricing - - - - Quantify Everything What’s Your Intention? BRIC Attack Wisdom of One Game of Life Give A Little Love
- 52. DATA
- 54. Information proliferation “In 2009, more data will be generated by individuals than in the entire history of mankind [up to] 2008.” Andreas Weigend, former Chief Scientist at Amazon.com
- 55. Every day the average person produces six newspapers worth of information compared with just two and a half pages 24 years ago – nearly a 200-fold increase.
- 56. Between the dawn of civilisation and 2003, we created five exabytes of data. We’re now creating that amount every two days
- 57. “Data is the New Oil”
- 59. Primarily, however, tools tracking data have only been able to tell us what happened in the past. As the amount of data increases, so the ability to predict future events increases too (with a good degree of certainty)
- 60. Bing ‘FareCast’ - screenshot on 25/2/11
- 64. See the future
- 65. “Why did no one see the crisis coming?”
- 66. Measuring how calm the Twitterverse is on a given day can foretell the direction of changes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average three days later with an accuracy of 87%
- 67. Quantify Everything – so what? The data is there. And it’s growing by the day. With exponential growth comes exponential possibilities. It's waiting to be refined. The gaps between businesses that can refine well and those that can’t will grow. We’re starting to see data used much more in a predictive sense - you can extrapolate a lot from the future out of the present. How valuable could this be to brands?
- 69. What’s your intention? As consumers give up more and more of their information, the opportunity exists to anticipate their purchasing and even bid for their custom. Rather than having to wait until chosen by consumers, brands are increasingly able to see, interpret and even satisfy consumers' desires and intentions.
- 73. What’s your intention – so what? In the same way that business is becoming more transparent, so too are consumers. It’s flipping the purchasing process on its head in the same way as Dynamic Pricing did. It’s always been the Holy Grail to be able to offer each individual consumer the best deal based on their circumstances (in the same way that it’s always been ideal to change pricing accordingly) Just wasn’t possible with technology, but is now.
- 74. In Realtime Dynamic Pricing - - - - Quantify Everything What’s Your Intention? BRIC Attack Wisdom of One Game of Life Give A Little Love
- 75. Clout
- 76. BRIC Attack
- 77. China recently overtook Japan as the world’s 2nd largest economy. Brazil’s middle-class has swelled by 24% in 4 years. India’s economy is growing at 10% a year (ours is growing at less than 2%). Developing economies "have accounted for nearly 70 percent of world growth over the past five years".
- 79. Designed in California, Made FOR China
- 81. Increased wealth and confidence will have the side-effects of greater creativity and entrepreneurialism. These countries will soon have the largest consumer market for every product.
- 82. The Chinese are coming
- 86. Patent pending China plans to file 2 million patents a year by 2015. The U.S currently files 480,000.
- 87. BRIC Attack – So what? Brands in established markets are used to dealing with established competitors for their share of the pie. What they’re not used to is totally new brands coming in and wanting their own slice. It’s unlikely to be a slow process of infiltration – the BRIC countries (and their middle classes) are growing too quickly for this.
- 88. Wisdom of one
- 92. Celebrity Mavens
- 93. What’s your……
- 95. Wisdom of one – so what? People are looking more and more for authority – trusted, authoritative sources of advice. As people look more for authority, so it becomes more important for brands to know who these bastions of authority are. Not to say that peer reviews are not important – but they will increasingly sit side by side with the Wisdom Of One.
- 96. In Realtime Dynanic Pricing - - - - Quantifying Everything What’s Your Intention? BRIC Attack Wisdom of One Game of Life Give A Little Love
- 98. Give a little love
- 99. In 1983, 90% of British people believed that banks were well run. In 2009 this had fallen to 19%.
- 100. HYATT HOTELS: Total = $0.00
- 103. I want candy
- 104. Give a little love – So what? The public see big business as inflexible and unwieldy – the kind of organisations that take great joy in charging you £30 a day for going a penny over your overdraft limit. It’s a great way to make a brand more human, and to grow consumer loyalty. If someone gives you something unexpected, you feel almost obliged to give them your custom again. Consumers give up so much more of their own personal information now – the KLM and Interflora examples were good illustrations of how knowing your consumers can allow you to talk to the individual rather than the demographic. In a world where brands can feel distant , inflexible and robotic, this gives a brand a human touch. However….getting the timing and offer right is crucial. And don’t be creepy!
- 105. The Game of Life
- 113. The fun theory
- 114. Sega Toylet
- 115. Game of Life – So What? Taps into the need for self-esteem and achievement – two fundamental human needs. Integrates a brand into the daily life of consumers in a way that much branded content doesn’t Requires you to interact with content rather than merely consuming it It’s hard to stop people’s behaviour by finger-wagging (obesity), and people resent over-regulation. Can help nudge people in the right direction. And with the example of the Sega Toylet – it makes a routine exercise fun
- 116. 8 words to remember Fluid Fun Influence Generous BRIC Efficient Non-corporate Quantified
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Hi everyone,Welcome to our Trends Briefing, entitled ‘The Natives Are Coming’.
- Eric Schmidt – GoogleBill Gates – MicrosoftThe man under the patches of sweat, Steve Ballmer – MicrosoftSteve Jobs – Apple
- So without further ado, let’s start with our first area, which we’ve entitled Fluid. Fluid is simply the idea of the world becoming a less fixed, more transient place.
- As I mentioned earlier, the tools with which Digital Natives have always used to communicate have been realtime. I was 18 before I first used a mobile phone – if I rang someone and they weren’t in, I simply rang back later. I emailed rather than used Messenger, meaning that I might not get a reply for some time.Digital Natives have always used instant, realtime tools. Which means that their expectation is that everything they use should have realtime capability.
- If I send an email to a customer service department, I’m not particularly affronted if they promise to reply ‘within two working days’. For Digital Natives, that’s not acceptable. And increasingly, they don’t see it as a nice-to-have element of a business. They see it as a hygiene factor.
- Digital Natives expect to be able to communicate with businesses in the same way that they communicate with their friends and family – through Skype, through Facebook, through instant messaging services, through twitter.
- They also expect to use these platforms because they do not really use email. Boston College stopped issuing email addresses to their new students a couple of years ago. Time spent using email is down at least 10% amongst all age groups under 55 over the past year, but especially amongst the youngest people in society.
- They expect realtime information.
- When I was researching this presentation, I remembered a line that features in all Lonely Planet guidebooks. This was acceptable for a generation of travellers – you were basing your plans on reviews that were often written some time in advance. And even if you’re not venturing far afield, people have still been happy to read year oldreviews of restaurants/barsand base theirdecisions on them.
- But, again, this is changing. And as people expect realtime information, so the value of older information rapidly diminishes. For example, if you’re looking for a lively night out you probably don’t want to visit a bar with no-one in it. ‘What spot now?’ can solve this. A two-year old review might describe it as the most happening spot in town.
- Alternatively, if you’re looking to meet a lady or man friend, you probably don’t want to visit a bar chockful of people of your own gender. RatioFinder surmounts this problem – it uses Foursquare check-in data to show which bars up your odds.
- And as realtime information becomes more important, so things will be made or broken in realtime.
- Twitter has proved very reliable at predicting first weekend performance of films (which is largely based on buzz) and second weekend performance (based on whether people actually like the film).
- Probably the best example of this is still the film Bruno. Did very well on release (lots of buzz) and then very badly thereafter (as the reviews filtered through)
- We’re slowly getting a sizeable social media fail back catalogue. This was just last week – needless to say Chrysler sacked their social media company after this.
- It’s been well-documented for a number of years that Charlie Sheen liked to have a good time, but it wasn’t in realtime and was generally from third-parties. Twitter has proved to be the rope that needed to hang himself all those years, giving the world a first-hand, realtime insight into his craziness.
- Group buying really came to the fore in 2010 – especially towards the back end of the year. It’s not a new concept – it’s been around in Asia for years and has existed here with websites such as letsbuyit.com. Premise is that a group buying outlet will provide one or two deals a day at a significant discount, provided enough people buy the deal as offered. These tend to be services – microdermabrasion and hair removal seem to be favourites, but they can also be goods. Groupon is probably the best known of all the group buying sites – it’s recently been valued by Google (who were interested in buying it) at $6bn. Such high valuation for such a fledgling company has got tongues wagging about another 2000 style crash.
- What do I think about Groupon? I think to ensure its long term success, it’s got to move beyond just offering the kind of services it does now. Offering goods at a huge discount is obviously more difficult, as the margin is lower. However, there’s only a certain amount of services that people can buy.
- And they’ve got to get better at targeting. At sign-up they don’t even ask you whether you’re a man or a woman. That’s a pretty important demographic criterion, especially if you’re mainly offering services.And to be honest, I’m unlikely to buy a Brazilian Wax and Glittering decoration anytime soon.
- Flash sales are another example of dynamic pricing. By limiting the time available, and frequently only making sales available to members, brands are able to shift excess inventory quickly at a discounted price.Secret Escapes, for example, offers you 44% of this lovely room at the Standard Design Hotel in Paris.
- You could have picked up two nights in a Standard room for a bargain £195 – 44% off the rack rate.And those last two words are key here – rack rate. 99 times out of a hundred a hotel in 2011 is not booked at the rack rate – the RRP if you will. The rack rate is only charged if you walk in from off the street and pay for the hotel with no prior booking. And considering you’re booking this online, you’re not doing that.
- A quick search of expedia for the same hotel on the same nights turns up a total cost of £177.94 – makes Secret Escapes ‘flash’ offer of £195 seem a little bit less special, doesn’t it?
- The mechanisms seem to make sense. The more people that buy something, the lower a price becomes. Or if you have stock/holidays that you need to clear, you can offer it for a short time at a knocked down rate. The issue is that consumers nowadays are far more aware of what a genuinely good deal is. And if they’re unsure, it’s not hard to verify it. Ultimately the success of group-buying and flash sales this year (and beyond) will be based on whether they actually offer good deals that people want.
- 2011 is the year that location-based apps become big. Why?
- Why do I believe that? Well, because Martin Sorrell told me so..
- Just kidding. Simply, because this is the year they become useful. Yes, location-based services like Foursquare can be fun, and I’ll go onto to speak about how introducing a fun, game-based element to your brand may reap rewards this year. But there’s no real inherent use in it – gaming in itself is not a solution.
- For most people, location is a key feature, not a business model.Things like Facebook Deals could be the first location app that crosses from niche (as FourSquare is, with 2m users against Facebook’s 500m users) into mainstream.
- If you came to our presentation on information proliferation, you might remember this stat. Data is increasing at an exponential rate in every field.
- On average, every day we receive 5 times more information than we did in 1986. That’s an impressive statistic, until you consider that we produce more than 200 times what we did in 1986.
- People have likened our current relationship with data to oil. We’ve just struck it. However, unless it’s refined it’s pretty much useless. Now we just need to refine it.
- In the presentation I gave last year, I mentioned that the ease with which one can track one’s own data was leading to a number of tools aimed at tracking our behavior and helping us to make more efficient decisions.Lots of these were centred around health…..
- Now, we are starting to see the emergence of technologies that can tell you what might happen in future – (with a fair amount of certainty). New technologies are proving that you can tell a lot about what might happen in the future based on what happened in the past.Bing’s Farecast is a good example of how refined data is being used to help people make better decisions. It uses historical searches for flights (and prices returned) to predict how airfares will move over the next 15 days.
- Not bad, eh?
- And why search for the present when you can search for the future? Recorded Future is a service that has had investment from CIA and Google. There is a lot in a world that happens that can be extrapolated from the present. Could the recession have been better foreseen with better predictive technology?
- When I spoke about Random Acts of Kindness I mentioned that it was largely being facilitated by consumers giving up more and more of their thoughts and intentions. KLM wouldn’t have known to give the football fan a guide to all the football bars in NYC if he hadn’t tweeted about it.
- As I said, the idea of businesses bidding for custom based on information provided by consumers is a new concept, and thus there is not a flood of businesses doing it – that’s where the opportunity lies. But there are a few examples. Anyvan is a ‘Delivery Auction Site’ that allows users to detail what they want to send and to where, and then receive bids from companies that are interested.
- You can see here that this user saved £111 by receiving bids on their table tennis table that they wanted to be transported from Edinburgh to Exeter. You’ll notice the difference between the standard courier quote and the Anyvan lowest bid. The important word here is standard – normally a courier company would quote a standard price because they don’t know whether they would have a van going the right way. Obviously that isn’t the most efficient way to run a business, but before you could only issue a standard quote. With consumers so willing to share information (and businesses more willing to adjust their prices) the ability exists to treat each customer desire as truly unique.
- Zipzoom is a Canadian startup that allows you to specify what you’re looking for (could be anything). Zipzoom then matches what looking for with vendors that sell those goods, who then get back to them with a quote. The site does not incorporate advertising, nor does it charge retailers or consumers for the connection.
- The next section is one we’ve entitled Clout – how various entities will increase their clout over this year and the years to come.
- With such rapid growth of these countries’ consumer economies, foreign brands are starting to view the consumers there in a different light. Before they would ship their wares to China or India with unabashed pride in their origin – the Chinese middle class wanted luxury brands that felt totally American/French/British. That still remains to a large extent, but we are starting to see movements towards international brands embedding themselves into developing markets by adopting some of the behaviours and customs of that market.
- I’m going to use China as a case study for this section. For those of you who own an iPhone, you’ll see this inscribed on the back – assembled in China. The message here is – ‘all the magic happens in California, all the manufacturing takes place in China’ – it’s simply the workshop.
- This was a T-Shirt worn by Apple Store employees at the opening of their Shanghai store, which I’m reliably informed translates as the above. As China becomes more confident about its place in the world, so it will demand a focus on China and its people – rather than merely products made for the West with China as an afterthought.
- Also, now we are starting to see Chinese brands here in number, although you might not be aware that they are Chinese. Until now, the size of the consumer base hasn’t really been enough to warrant a slew of homegrown brands. However, I predict the growth of BRIC brands in developed nations, such as our own., over the next few years.
- For example - my laptop is made by Lenovo, but I had no idea of its Chinese origin until I started researching for this presentation.
- And Birmingham City’s kit is made by Xtep, a Chinese sportswear brand. That’s the full logo on the right, complete with the Mandarin script.
- China (along with the other BRIC nations) still has a way to go to make itself credible amongst international consumers as a source of innovation and quality products (and brands), but there is historical precedent for a nation changing the image of its products. Japan did it in the 70s and 80s.
- The internet was created with the intention of making a truly democratic system, in every person had an equal say. The reality is that any technology will mirror the society in which it exists. And just as in the offline world we look for trusted experts, so we look for it in online. In fact, the need for those with true clout is heightened as the sheer number of opinions increases dramatically.
- In an Edelman survey that asked people who they saw as credible sources of information about companies, the option for ‘person like yourself’ fell for the second year running, down to 43%. By contrast, an academic/expert rose 8 percentage points to 70%.
- In his book ‘The Tipping Point’, Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the importance of two groups of people, that he considered to be crucial in spreading an idea – ‘Mavens’ and ‘Connectors’. Mavens are the people in society with the most knowledge – it’s Yiddish for ‘one who accumulates knowledge’. Connectors are, unsurprisingly – the kind of people who know lots of people, and whose opinions have wide reach
- What I think we’ll increasingly see this year is these two groups increase in importance. Mavens will become more important for consumers as a one-stop-shop for information and opinion.
- Brands, on the other hand, want to know who the most valuable people are in spreading ideas. Services such as Klout are also going to become more important. Klout analyses your social media presence, looking at the size of your network, the variety of your network and how widely your thoughts and opinions are disseminated. All peers are not created equal. Power peers are becoming more and more important as a source of info.
- Finding the Mavens is important (for consumers) and finding the Connectors is crucial (for brands). Luckily, finding both is easier than before. In his book, Gladwell described how the Hush Puppies shoe brand became fashionable again in the U.S, but didn’t know definitively whyConsumers need to find the best sources of info and analysis. And with a greater likelihood to seek out experts, brands need to know who these experts are. I’m not saying that WOM is going to dissipate totally, rather that Wisdom of One will become more eminent.
- The British public is pissed off. With everyone. And they’re constantly scanning the horizon for new targets of ire.
- And institutions we think of as the devil incarnate used to be bastions of trust and propriety.Such low levels of trust are a source of opportunity for brands, simply because consumers expect so little from business. In the same way that relatively small shortcomings can damage a relationship between brand and consumer, so can relatively small things beyond the call of duty enhance a brand’s standing. Brands with their finger on the pulse have recognised this opportunity, surprising and delighting their consumers with out of the blue acts of kindness.
- Hyatt Hotels has launched a staff-led campaign which empowers employees to give Gold Passport guests 'pleasant surprises' to delight them during their stay. Internally coined as 'random acts of generosity,' such surprises include the company picking up the bar tab, a complimentary massage or free breakfast.
- As the amount of branded content increases, so consumers engagement with it can drop. Increasingly, brands are looking for new ways of engaging their customers. One method that is proving successful is by introducing an element of play into content.
- And adding a gaming element to your brands can make it much more engaging. More from the ‘What people don’t say about advertising’ blog – again, it rings very true. The content some brands produce is inherently interesting – the Apples and the Nikes of this world. And some brands content just isn’t. I mentioned that people are weary of being sold to in the traditional sense. One of the most powerful ways to teach a child is through playing games, because they don’t think they are being taught. In the same way, one of the most powerful way to engage someone with marketing is by acting in a totally different way to traditional marketing.
- One of the main reasons why gaming is so powerful is changing consumer culture.Gaming was once the preserve of a certain age group (teenagers) and a certain place (the bedroom). The Wii and Kinect have helped propel game culture into the living rooms of the nation, taking it out of the bedroom, the traditional home of the video games console.This was always likely to happen when Generation X became fully-fledged adults – they may have dropped their taste for sitting in their bedroom with the curtains closed, but they certainly didn’t drop their taste for playing games. Gen X (33-45 year olds) were raised on Super Nintendos and Game Boys – the first generation for whom gaming was truly mainstream. Unsurprising that they would take their taste for gaming into later life.
- And therefore it’s unsurprising that integrating the mechanics of a game into real-life activities proves a particularly motivating factor for people in this age group. The first statement is interesting, but it’s not asking people to state whether they’d change their behaviour.The second statement is more noteworthy –that a layer of competition would be likely to make people take more note of their behaviour.
- Games are also a good way of changing behaviour. Some of you might be familiar with the book Nudge which came out a couple of years ago, in which the authors suggest that the best way to help people to make better choices is to make them either easier, or more rewarding.
- An example of this is the SmartGauge digital dashboard in Ford’s Fusion Hybrid car. On the last chart we saw that adding a layer of competition was likely to make people more aware of their behaviour, and a mechanism as simple of this encourages drivers to drive in a more economical fashion. I also really like the way this flips traditional car displays on their head – it brings home to the driver the impact of driving inefficiently. To a lot of people, 90mph on the speedo means that they are driving like a legend. This shows them that they’re driving like an idiot.