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Forecasting,[object Object],Parminder Singh Grover,[object Object]
08/12/2010,[object Object],2,[object Object],Forecasting ,[object Object],Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed.,[object Object],Forecasting is an art of predicting future values of random variables. ,[object Object]
Used to Ans. Imp Qus.,[object Object],How much profit will the business make? ,[object Object],How much demand will there be for a product or service?,[object Object],How much money will the company need to borrow?,[object Object],When and how will borrowed funds be repaid?,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],3,[object Object]
Need for forecasting,[object Object],It is necessary to predict the macro and micro changes as accurately as possible to survive and grow in a dynamic and uncertain world.,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],4,[object Object]
Importance ,[object Object],Forecasting prevents the company from spending time and money developing, manufacturing, and marketing a product that will fail.,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],5,[object Object]
Methods of Forecasting,[object Object],QUALITATIVE FORECASTING ,[object Object],Market research,[object Object],Product life-cycle,[object Object],Expert judgment ,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],6,[object Object]
Cont’d,[object Object],QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING ,[object Object],TIME SERIES FORECASTING ,[object Object],Trend,[object Object],Seasonal influence,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],7,[object Object]
BENEFITS (Forecasting),[object Object],Better material management,[object Object],Better labor relations,[object Object],Balanced work-load,[object Object],Minimization in the fluctuations of production,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],8,[object Object]
Cont’d,[object Object],Better use of production facilities,[object Object],Better customer service,[object Object],Better utilization of capital and resources,[object Object],Better design of facilities and production system.,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],9,[object Object]
Cost (Forecasting),[object Object],Data always not reliable or accurate,[object Object],Data may be out of date,[object Object],The past is always not guide to future,[object Object],Wastage of time and money,[object Object],Lack of understanding,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],10,[object Object]
Approaches ,[object Object],Econometric : - Some forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. ,[object Object],Time Series Analysis:- Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],11,[object Object]
Cont’d,[object Object],Subjective Judgmental :- Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions  & subjective,[object Object],	probability estimates.,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],12,[object Object]
Forecasting in Resort,[object Object],Identify Variable,[object Object],Do the data analysis,[object Object],Do paperwork,[object Object],Prepare forecaste Plan,[object Object],Make decision,[object Object],Implement,[object Object],Achieve desire result,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],13,[object Object]
What do you think, Forecasting must for business ?,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],14,[object Object]
Any Query ? ,[object Object],08/12/2010,[object Object],15,[object Object]

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Forecasting

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