1. Cristina Sabbioni Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Italy VULNERABILITY OF CULTURAL HERITAGE TO CLIMATE CHANGE International Seminar “ Risk, Health and Environment” Sao Paulo (Brasil) 21-22 September 2009 [email_address]

2. ENEMIES OF CULTURAL HERITAGE Water (precipitation, relative humidity) Temperature Wind Pollution Prague, 2002 Tel č, Czech Rep. Salt crystallization Cracking Surface loss Biological attack Blackening Destruction or partial failure Flooding C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

3. Cultural heritage is a non-renewable resource to be transmitted to future generations NOVEL RESEARCH SECTORS The Noah’s Ark Project creates for the first time a synergy between climate change and cultural heritage scientific research Climate Change Cultural Heritage ? C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

4. Climate change impact on the cultural heritage May become a more important factor a central part of the EC project NOAH’S ARK Global Climate Change Impact on Built Heritage and Cultural Landscapes C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

8. Methodological approach CRUCIAL PARAMETERS selection for the damage on the build cultural heritage Construction of a European DATABASE CLIMATE MAPS production Further data elaboration through using DAMAGE FUNCTIONS RISK MAPS and MULTI-RISK MAPS production DAMAGE MAPS production Identification of RISK AREAS C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

9. DATABASE TEMPERATURE DERIVED PARAMETERS Temperature range Freeze-thaw cycles Thermal shock WIND DERIVED PARAMETERS Wind speed Wind driven rain Wind speed c ounts Wind driven sand Monthly, Seasonal and Annual mean of the following parameters : WATER DERIVED PARAMETERS Precipitation Amount Rain days: total number of rainy days Extreme rain Consecutive number of rainy days Mean Relative Humidity Relative Humidity range Relative Humidity shocks POLLUTION DERIVED PARAMETERS SO 2 air concentration HNO 3 air concentration O 3 air concentration Rain pH C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

10. Maps Produced CLIMATE MAPS DAMAGE MAPS THEMATIC PAGES HERITAGE CLIMATE MAPS RISK MAPS C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

11. Relative humidity cycles =75.5% (Salt crystallisation) 2070-2099 Brick masonry C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

12. Salt crystallisation .…will increase over the 100 years all across Europe Increase Decrease C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

13. 1961-1990 2070-2099 Central Europe, UK, Iceland, Sandinavian Peninsula and the northern Spain will experience the highest surface recession Future scenarios of surface recession of carbonate stone due to precipitation and CO 2 concentration change Losses in surface C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

14. 1961-1990 2070-2099 Surface recession Bonazza et al., STOTEN (2009) General increase (> 6 µm/year) throughout Europe, particularly noticeable in high rainfall areas. The change can be > 6 µm/year in regions with recession = 20 µm/year 30% increase C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

15. Thermal Stress The Mediterranean Basin in general will continue to experience the highest level of risk. In the near and far future thermoclastism will threaten more and more Central Europe. Bonazza et al., STOTEN (2009) C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

16. Biological organisms (lichens, algae, bacteria) linked to temperature and precipitation An increase of biological growth in Central and Northern Europe. A decrease in Southern Europe Torre del Oro, Spain 2070-2099 C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

17. WATER: IMPACT ON EARTH ARCHITECTURE Annual Precipitation amount 2070-2099 Structural damage Erosion Clay swelling Cracking for drying-wetting cycles Plaster dissolution Demonstrated to be the the main wheatering agent during the 21st century C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

20. CRUSTS European Monuments (carbonate stone) Substrate Bonazza et al. Atmos. Env. (2005) OC prevails on monuments in European towns due to urban traffic CNR Project Sustainable mobility C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

22. …………… a complex problem ………………. Bishapour Gulf War – Effect of the Kuwait oil fires in 1991 on the Iranian Cultural Heritage Spring 1991: burning of ~4.6 million barrels of oil per day Persepolis C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

23. Vulnerability of building materials is different depending on chemical composition and porosity Reactivity towards SO 2 : laboratory tests Cement mortars most reactive ! C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

24. Atmosphere Damage layer CementMortar SO 2 gas SO 4 = SO 3 = SO 4 = Catalysts aerosol Catalysts material CALCIUM CARBONATE GYPSUM FORMATION ON CEMENT GYPSUM CALCIUM ALUMINATES CALCIUM SILICATES C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

25. SECONDARY DAMAGE PRODUCTS Sabbioni et al., Atmos. Env. (2001) 3CaO·Al 2 O 3 · 3CaSO 4 · 31H 2 O CaSiO 3 · CaSO 4 ·CaCO 3 · 15H 2 O Gypsum + Calcium silicate THAUMASITE Gypsum + Calcium aluminate ETTRINGITE

26. ETTRINGITE FORMATION ETTRINGITE DISSOLUTION / DECOMPOSITION THAUMASITE FORMATION BREAKDOWN BY EXPANSION EC Project EDAMM Laboratory tests Damage occurs also if SO 2 decrease 10-15 nm C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

27. SECONDARY DAMAGE PRODUCTS: HYDRAULIC MORTARS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA EC Project PRODOMEA MEKAWER FORTRESS (JORDAN) JUPITER TEMPLE, DAMASCUS (SIRYA) VILLA DOMITIA, GIANNUTRI (ITALY) PETRA (JORDAN) C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

28. CONTEMPORARY AIR POLLUTANTS AND STONE Need to expanmd this slide…!. EC Project NOAH’s ARK Joakim Langner Thanks to the European Air Quality Policy, SO 2 is declining in Europe  sulfation of stone declines and will continue in the future C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

31. Future needs: Policy Inclusion of cultural heritage among the priorities in existing and forthcoming legislation and policies. Inclusion in future IPCC Reports and other international reports (e.g. UNFCCC). International cooperation particularly with fast growing developing countries (e.g. Brasil, Russia, China and India), neighbouring (e.g. candidate countries, Mediterranean area) and industrialised countries (e.g. USA and Japan). Disseminate knowledge and raise awareness of national, regional, local authorities, private sector (e.g. insurance) and citizens. C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

32. Future needs: Research Scenarios on local scales in European cities and other places characterised by concentrations of significant cultural heritage assets . Assign probabilities of damage by utilising probabilistic climate models applied to specific case studies. Identify indicators of threats and damage to cultural heritage in outdoor and indoor environments. Impact of rising sea levels in CH protection. Development of adaptation strategies based on an early and cost-effective action. C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

33. POLLUTION, PARTICULARLY PARTICLES, IS A MAJOR THREAT AFFECTING THE BUILT CULTURAL HERITAGE IN URBAN AREAS MODERN BUILDING MATERIALS, e.g. CEMENT, ARE LESS DURABLE THAN ANCIENT MATERIALS WITH RESPECT TO POLLUTION FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HISTORICAL BUILDINGS AND ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITES REMAIN A CHALLENGE C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009

35. Some publications SABBIONI C., ZAPPIA G., RIONTINO C., BLANCO-VARELA M.T., AGUILERA J., PUERTAS F., VAN BALEN K., TOUMBAKARI E.E. Atmospheric deterioration of ancient and modern hydraulic mortars Atmospheric Environment, 35, 539-548, 2001. SABBIONI C. Mechanisms of air pollution damage to stone In Effects of Air Pollution on the Built Environment (Ed. P. Brimblecombe) Imperial College Press, Singapore, 2002, pp. 63-106. SABBIONI C., GHEDINI N., BONAZZA A. Organic anions damage layers on monuments and buildings Atmospheric Environment 37, 1261-1269, 2003. GHEDINI N., SABBIONI C., PANTANI M. Thermal analyses in cultural heritage safeguard: an application. Thermochimica Acta, 406, 105-113, 2003 BONAZZA A., SABBIONI C., GHEDINI N. Quantitative data on carbon fractions in interpretation of black crusts and soiling on European built heritage. Atmospheric Environment 39, 2607-2618, 2005 GHEDINI N., SABBIONI C., BONAZZA A., GOBBI G. Chemical-Thermal Quantitative Methodology for Carbon Speciation in Damage Layers on Building Surfaces. Environmental Science and Technology 40, 939-944, 2006 BONAZZA A., BRIMBLECOMBE P., GROSSI C.M., SABBIONI C. Carbon in Black Crusts from the Tower of London. Environmental Science and Technology 41, 4199-4204, 2007 BONAZZA A., SABBIONI C., GHEDINI N., HERMOSIN H., JURADO V., GONZALEZ J. M., SAIZ-JIMENEZ C. Did smoke from the Kuwait oil well fires affected archaeological sites and monuments of Iranian cultural heritage? Environmental Science and Technology 41, 2378-2386, 2007 BONAZZA A., MESSINA P., SABBIONI C., GROSSI C.M., BRIMBLECOMBE P. Mapping the impact of climate change on surface recession of carbonate buildings in Europe. Science of the Total Environment 407, 2039-2050 , 2009 BONAZZA A., SABBIONI C., MESSINA P., GUARALDI C., DE NUNTIIS P. Climate change impact: Mapping thermal stress on Carrara marble in Europe Science of the Total Environment (in press) 2009 THANKS C. Sabbioni, CNR - ISAC, Bologna, Italy S ã o Paulo (Brasil), 22 September 2009