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Daniel P. Aldrich
Purdue University and USAID
   Understand how Japan – the only nation to have
    experienced atomic weaponry – developed one of
    the most advanced nuclear power programs in the
    world

   Recognize the ways in which public opinion on
    nuclear power has shifted since the 3/11 compounded
    disaster

   Intuit the engines for recovery that will help Japan
    rebuild after the disaster
Increase   Maintain     Decrease*   Abolish*   Unknown
                          status quo
December       55.1       20.2         14.7        2.3        7.7
2005 (PM)

October 2009 59.6         18.8         14.6        1.6        5.4
(PM)
4 April 2011   10         46           29          12         3
(Yomiuri)
9 June 2011    4          41           36          16         3
(Asahi)
5 August       5          49           32          13         1
2011 (Soka
gakkai)
28 October     2          23           42          24         9
2011 (NHK)
Annual Population Growth Rates in Tokyo
                 1
Population Growth Rate (Percentage)
           0     -.5    .5




                                      1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933
.15
Population Growth Rate (Percentage)




                                              Chi-squared value: .001
      0        .05 -.05    .1




                                          Low levels of social capital   High levels of social capital
Predicted Population Growth Rate
                              -.02     0       .02      .04    .06




   60       50
Voter Turn Out (Percentage)
            80           70
Data from Katsuji    Nagata A Before   Fukushima B before
2001: 231
Population                191                 180
Average age               51.1               50.6
# Households               73                  64
Household age             62.4               59.2
Average Household       442 man            402.8 man
Income
Number of Years in        32.3                43.4
the Community

% born in the              9.2                71.9
community
% Renting                 34.7                15.9
% Working                 64.6                69.8
Chuo-ku                        Higashinada-ku                          Hyogo-ku
             120000                              220000                              130000
             115000                              200000                              120000
             110000
                                                 180000                              110000
             105000
                                                 160000                              100000
             100000

                             Kita-ku                             Nada-ku                           Nagata-ku
Population




             240000                              130000                              140000
             230000                              120000
                                                                                     120000
             220000                              110000
             210000                                                                  100000
                                                 100000
             200000                              90000                               80000

                             Nishi-ku                           Suma-ku                             Tarumi-ku
             250000                              190000                              240000
                                                 185000                              235000
             200000                              180000                              230000
                                                 175000                              225000
             150000                              170000                              220000
                      1990 1995 2000 2005 2010            1990 1995 2000 2005 2010            1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

                                                            Year
.03
Predicted Population Growth Rate
     .01          .02
                  0




                                    0         .0001                 .0002          .0003
                                        Lagged Number of NPOs Created per Capita
Social capital / networks played large role in
 site selection, and will continue to play a role
 in the post-crisis recovery process

Citizen science, protests, and anti-nuclear
  movements indicate bottom-up response

Japan stands at a crossroads and its choices
  could set the standard for other nations

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One Year Later: Japanese Responses to the Fukushima Disaster

  • 1. Daniel P. Aldrich Purdue University and USAID
  • 2. Understand how Japan – the only nation to have experienced atomic weaponry – developed one of the most advanced nuclear power programs in the world  Recognize the ways in which public opinion on nuclear power has shifted since the 3/11 compounded disaster  Intuit the engines for recovery that will help Japan rebuild after the disaster
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Increase Maintain Decrease* Abolish* Unknown status quo December 55.1 20.2 14.7 2.3 7.7 2005 (PM) October 2009 59.6 18.8 14.6 1.6 5.4 (PM) 4 April 2011 10 46 29 12 3 (Yomiuri) 9 June 2011 4 41 36 16 3 (Asahi) 5 August 5 49 32 13 1 2011 (Soka gakkai) 28 October 2 23 42 24 9 2011 (NHK)
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Annual Population Growth Rates in Tokyo 1 Population Growth Rate (Percentage) 0 -.5 .5 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933
  • 20. .15 Population Growth Rate (Percentage) Chi-squared value: .001 0 .05 -.05 .1 Low levels of social capital High levels of social capital
  • 21. Predicted Population Growth Rate -.02 0 .02 .04 .06 60 50 Voter Turn Out (Percentage) 80 70
  • 22. Data from Katsuji Nagata A Before Fukushima B before 2001: 231 Population 191 180 Average age 51.1 50.6 # Households 73 64 Household age 62.4 59.2 Average Household 442 man 402.8 man Income Number of Years in 32.3 43.4 the Community % born in the 9.2 71.9 community % Renting 34.7 15.9 % Working 64.6 69.8
  • 23. Chuo-ku Higashinada-ku Hyogo-ku 120000 220000 130000 115000 200000 120000 110000 180000 110000 105000 160000 100000 100000 Kita-ku Nada-ku Nagata-ku Population 240000 130000 140000 230000 120000 120000 220000 110000 210000 100000 100000 200000 90000 80000 Nishi-ku Suma-ku Tarumi-ku 250000 190000 240000 185000 235000 200000 180000 230000 175000 225000 150000 170000 220000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
  • 24. .03 Predicted Population Growth Rate .01 .02 0 0 .0001 .0002 .0003 Lagged Number of NPOs Created per Capita
  • 25. Social capital / networks played large role in site selection, and will continue to play a role in the post-crisis recovery process Citizen science, protests, and anti-nuclear movements indicate bottom-up response Japan stands at a crossroads and its choices could set the standard for other nations