This is an old talk from 2003/4, but I was asked to post it in 2012. Perhaps the outsourcing issues have changed, but the idea of investing in yourself is as important now as ever.

2. How to Keep
Your Job
Dave Thomas
The Pragmatic Programmers, LLC
www.pragmaticprogrammer.com

3. “For people who view this as a
career, engineering is in worse
shape now than it’s been in years”
LeEarl Bryant
President, IEEE 2002

4. Our Future is at Stake
• Look at threats to our livelihood
• See why large-scale solutions won’t help us
• Look at a local solution that will

5. The
Threats

6. at
hre e
T n
O Things Move Too Fast

7. at
hre e
T n
O Things Move Too Fast
“The half-life of engineering
knowledge, the time it takes
for something to become
obsolete, is from 7 to 2.5
years”
William Wulf, President,
National Academy of Engineering

8. The Graying Developer
• Younger folks:
– grow up with the new technologies
– are cheaper
– say “no” less often
– don’t have as many other commitments
•

9. The Graying Developer
• Younger folks:
• are often more attractive to employers

10. at
Thre o
TwReliance on a Sector

11. at
Thre o
TwReliance on a Sector
• I’m an XYZ programmer.

12. at
Thre o
TwReliance on a Sector
• I’m an XYZ programmer.
• Or, the special case:
• I’m a Java programmer.
• Start depending on technologies and the
companies that back them

13. Reliance on a Company
• Companies such as:
• Digital Equipment
• Tandem
• Honeywell
• and Sun...

14. Reliance on a Sector
Two Year Historical - Sun Microsystems. 01/06/03

15. Reliance on a Sector
Two Year Historical - Sun Microsystems. 01/06/03

16. Reliance on a Sector
Two Year Historical - Sun Microsystems. 01/06/03

17. Reliance on a Sector
Two Year Historical - Sun Microsystems. 01/06/03

18. Reliance on a Sector
Two Year Historical - Sun vs. Microsoft

19. at
hre e
T re
Th The Market

20. at
hre e
T re
Th The Market
(CNN) -- Just as Friday's new Labor Department
report shows the United States unemployment rate
soaring in August to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent, a
newly released, federally funded study reveals that
a significant number of production jobs are shifting
from the American workplace to China.

21. at
hre e
T re
Th The Market
(CNN) -- Just as Friday's new Labor Department
report shows the United States unemployment rate
soaring in August to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent, a
newly released, federally funded study reveals that
a significant number of production jobs are shifting
from the American workplace to China.
"What makes it worse," she says, "is that some of
these are higher-wage jobs, the type jobs that U.S.
cities have been fighting to win. And now they're
leaving. Many of those jobs were held by people
who'd been working in them for many years, and
in some cases their whole lifetimes."

23. Nearly 1 million IT-related jobs
will move offshore over the course
of the next 15 years, according to
a new report released by Forrester
Research, Inc.
Source: http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/career/article.php/1503461

24. WHY?

25. Reasons to Move

26. Reasons to Move
• Sometimes political

27. Reasons to Move
• Sometimes political
• Sometimes cost
• same as “young developers are cheaper”

28. Reasons to Move
• Sometimes political
• Sometimes cost
• same as “young developers are cheaper”
• Often quality…

29. Overseas developers
can write good code

30. Capability Maturity Model

31. Capability Maturity Model
• Measures sophistication of software
development organizations

32. Capability Maturity Model
• Measures sophistication of software
development organizations
• Acts as a set of targets, each better than the
last

33. Capability Maturity Model
• Measures sophistication of software
development organizations
• Acts as a set of targets, each better than the
last
• Five “CMM Levels”

34. CMM Levels

35. CMM Levels
• Level 1 (initial): little or no rules. Heroic effort

36. CMM Levels
• Level 1 (initial): little or no rules. Heroic effort
• Level 2 (repeatable): Basic project
management, differs between projects.

37. CMM Levels
• Level 1 (initial): little or no rules. Heroic effort
• Level 2 (repeatable): Basic project
management, differs between projects.
• Level 3 (defined): Development across the
organization follows same rules

38. CMM Levels

39. CMM Levels
• Level 4 (managed): Management use precise
measurements for effective control of
development.

40. CMM Levels
• Level 4 (managed): Management use precise
measurements for effective control of
development.
• Level 5 (optimizing): Quantitative feedback
from previous projects used to improve next
generation of projects,

41. CMM Level 4
USA
41%
Overseas
59%
Source: http://www.sei.cmu.edu/sema/profile.html

42. CMM Level 5
USA
17%
Overseas
83%
Source: http://www.sei.cmu.edu/sema/profile.html

43. This is the new world, and failing to
recognize it is no different than IBM failing to
recognize in the 80’s how important PCs and
commodity hardware were going to be…or
failing to recognize for some time that they
had “lost” the PC market and forging ahead
with OS/2 and the PowerPC chip.
-- a senior manager...

44. I think it's largely an arrogance problem:
“They” can't be better than “us”.
We're too smart.

45. Threat Summary
The gravy train is
running out of steam.

46. Solutions

47. tion
olu :
ne Rely on Government
S
O

48. tion
olu :
ne Rely on Government
S
O
• Legislate against outsourcing
– e.g. NJ Senate bill 1349

49. tion
olu :
ne Rely on Government
S
O
• Legislate against outsourcing
– e.g. NJ Senate bill 1349
• Reduce H1B cap

50. tion
olu :
ne Rely on Government
S
O
• Legislate against outsourcing
– e.g. NJ Senate bill 1349
• Reduce H1B cap
• Perhaps…
• Tariffs on imported software
• Legislate randomly

51. Protectionism

52. Protectionism
• Doesn’t work!

53. Protectionism
• Doesn’t work!
• Economic reasons: protectionism hurts us as
a country

54. Protectionism
• Doesn’t work!
• Economic reasons: protectionism hurts us as
a country
• Practical reasons:
– companies such as GE, EDS, IBM have
offices around the world
– how could it be enforced anyway?

55. H1B Quotas
• 195,000 H1B’s in 2003
• 65,000 thereafter
• Failed to reach cap this year
•

56. H1B Quotas
• What happens if we dramatically cut the
quota?
– jobs move abroad
– we lose access to experience
•

57. tion
olu :
S
Two Rely on our Companies

58. tion
olu :
S
Two Rely on our Companies
• What is their motivation?
– new graduates are cheaper, and will work
longer hours
– offshore programmers are cheaper, and
offer good quality
– tools are more reliable than those funky
people anyway

60. • Our government isn’t going to do it

61. • Our government isn’t going to do it
• Our companies aren’t going to do it

62. • Our government isn’t going to do it
• Our companies aren’t going to do it
• It’s up to each of us

63. tion
olu : Rely on Ourselves
S
Three
• Our government isn’t going to do it
• Our companies aren’t going to do it
• It’s up to each of us

64. Invest
in
Yourself

65. Lessons from
Personal Finance
• Good investors:
– have a plan
– diversify
– look for value
– are active, not passive
– do it regularly

66. Knowledge Portfolio
• Value comes from:
• what we know
• knowing how to apply it

67. Have a Plan
• Consider pace of change
• Look beyond current fads
•
! √! have a plan
diversify
look for value
active, not passive
do it regularly

68. Have a Plan: Example 1
• You believe:
– outsourcing will increase over time
– your technical skills may become eclipsed

69. Have a Plan: Example 1
• You plan:
– Now: to become familiar with distributed
project implementation tools
– Next Year: to look at becoming involved
with outsourced project management
– Coming Years: learn a foreign language

70. Have a Plan: Example 2
• You believe:
– coding will be gradually eclipsed by
modeling
– you have better than average
communications skills
– you like a varied job

71. Have a Plan: Example 2
• You plan:
– Now: start learning about MDA. Read
books, subscribe to ML
– Next Year: find an angle. Start
contributing articles to management press.
Implement a simple trial project.
– Coming Years: speak at management
conferences on MDA. Become high-paid
international consultant on MDA
application

72. Have a Plan: Example 3
• You believe:
– you are an great, intuitive, developer
– you enjoy coding challenges
– you want to stay technical

73. Have a Plan: Example 3
• You plan:
– Now: identify areas that will not be
outsourced (core business, emerging
technologies, defense, embedded,
infrastructure). Research technologies and
players.
– Next Year: start developing code in these
areas (open source if no jobs available).
– Coming Years: write articles, speak at
conferences, become recognized expert

74. Diversify
• Don’t have all your eggs in one technology
basket
• Across multiple dimensions
– languages
– techniques
– industries
– non-technical
! ! have a plan
√ diversify
look for value
active, not passive
do it regularly

75. Diversify
• Mixture of risk/return profiles
– have some low risk, low return
• e.g.: .NET, Web Services, mobile
devices, MDA
– have some high risk, high return
• e.g.. Aspects/Intentional programming,
functional programming
• spend time identifying (and join the
effort early)

76. Diversify
• Remember:
– almost all investments have some return
– learning AOP, Haskell, … will always
make you a better developer
– don’t forget the non-technical axis

77. Look for Value
• Value is long term
• Time ≠ value
– the EverQuest syndrome
• Applicability
– but don’t forget diversity
• Not just theoretical
– look for opportunities to apply and get
feedback ! ! have a plan
diversify
√ look for value
active, not passive
do it regularly

78. Active Investor
• Periodically evaluate your (knowledge)
portfolio
– performing as you’d planned?
– have external circumstances changed?
– is it time to rebalance?
! ! have a plan
diversify
look for value
√ active, not passive
do it regularly

79. Invest Regularly
• Invest a minimum amount of time each
month
• Helps to have a ritual
– whatever works for you
• Plan time in advance
– don’t just sit down and wonder
what to do
! ! have a plan
diversify
look for value
active, not passive
√ do it regularly

80. Pragmatic Investment Plan
• Invest minimum two hours each week
– good times and bad
• Combines individual and group work
• Growing national community
R
CEM BE
DE •
8

81. PIP: Possible Schedule
• One week/month:
– spend the time in a user group meeting
– plan to give talk every two years
• set aside 6-8 weeks of PIP time to
prepare

82. PIP: Possible Schedule
• One week/month:
– spend the time learning a new language or
environment
• make it different (e.g. Java folks could
learn C# and .NET)
• free software is available for many
languages and environments
• see if you can put together a local study
group

83. PIP: Possible Schedule
• One week/month:
– spend the time reading a high-quality
book.
– avoid low-level recipe books
• look for concept books
• don’t forget non-technical books

84. Non-Technical Books
Gold-mine of applicable information. Eg:
• How to Open Locks with Improvised Tools. Hans
Conkel.
• From Novice to Expert: Excellence and Power in
Clinical Nursing Practice. Patricia Benner.
• And the old favorite: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle
Maintenance. Robert M. Pirsig.

85. PIP: Possible Schedule
• One week/month:
– work on your personal plan

86. Pragmatic Investment Plan
• Work with others
• Reflect on your plan every 4-6 months
• More time is better than less
• See if you can get your company to agree to
alternate Friday afternoons as study time:
– show them a plan

87. In The Long Term…
• Things will continue to get more complicated
• Competition for work will increase
• Externally imposed constraints won’t help

88. In the Long Term
• We have to look out for ourselves
• We have to invest in ourselves
• We have to plan 5-10 years out
•

89. In the Long Term
• We have the control
• We have the responsibility
• We have the opportunity

90. How to Keep
Your Job
Dave Thomas
The Pragmatic Programmers, LLC
www.pragmaticprogrammer.com

91. Extra
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