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Lecture2 Decisions And Decision Makers

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Kodok Ngorex
Kodok Ngorex
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Decisions and Decision Makers Reading: Chapter 2 Why do we need DSS’s? ……. Because of …
The Decision Making Process ,[object Object],Marakas, 2003 Avoid great solution, wrong problem!! This is a dynamic process though it may appear static represented like this
Classes of Decision Makers ,[object Object],Requires support from the whole organisation Marakas, 2003 Shared authority Single decision maker, other partyicipants
Decision Structures Decision structure Collaborative Non-Collaborative Group Consensus Majority Team Individual Committee Consensus Majority IMPLEMENTATION
Decision Styles Depends on problem context, perceptions of the D-M and their values. Marakas, 2003 Thinkers, not doers Conflict averse Style will be a pattern of these rather than one distinguishable style
Decision Style influencing DSS Design ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forces on Decision Maker Marakas, 2003 ,[object Object],[object Object],Encourage innovation or conformity? Time constraints? Stakeholders?
How can a DSS Help? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why are Decisions so hard? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decision Structure Continuum Marakas, 2003
Typology of Decisions Marakas, 2003 High uncertainty High risk More certainty Are the outcomes clear? Is the preference of outcome clear?? Structured/semi-structured Delbecq, 1967
Decision Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Marakas, 2003
Simon’s Model of Problem Solving Marakas, 2003 Desired state – current state ownership solutions What constitutes success or failure?
Rational Decision Making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Transportation Env. Impact analysis Inventory models Queuing methods Investment models Markov analysis Queuing (simple) “ what if” analysis Goal programs forecasting Linear programming simulation Optimising strategies Satisificing strategies
Bounded Rationality Optimizing strategies search here Satisficing strategies search here Marakas, 2003 Treat the problem NOT the symptom!!!!
The Process of Choice ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cognitive Processes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Harrison, 1995
Perception & Judgment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Biases and Heuristics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Marakas, 2003
More on Heuristics Optimisation not feasible Reliable method not available Can produce multiple solutions Symbolic processing involved Requires less cognitive effort Problems solved frequently Requires less conception time High computation time Easy to implement Input data are inexact or limited Easy to understand Appropriate Use Advantages
Heuristic Example Starting from New York take the shortest route between cities 7580 miles Take an exterior route without crossing paths and backtracking 7005 miles Computation increases exponentially as number of cites increases – could take millions of years to process!!
Heuristic Bias (Kahnemann, Tversky) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Effectiveness and Efficiency in D-M ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary (big chapter – get ideas) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Worth reading Case Studies in each chapter

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Lecture2 Decisions And Decision Makers

  • 1. Decisions and Decision Makers Reading: Chapter 2 Why do we need DSS’s? ……. Because of …
  • 2.
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  • 4. Decision Structures Decision structure Collaborative Non-Collaborative Group Consensus Majority Team Individual Committee Consensus Majority IMPLEMENTATION
  • 5. Decision Styles Depends on problem context, perceptions of the D-M and their values. Marakas, 2003 Thinkers, not doers Conflict averse Style will be a pattern of these rather than one distinguishable style
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  • 11. Typology of Decisions Marakas, 2003 High uncertainty High risk More certainty Are the outcomes clear? Is the preference of outcome clear?? Structured/semi-structured Delbecq, 1967
  • 12.
  • 13. Simon’s Model of Problem Solving Marakas, 2003 Desired state – current state ownership solutions What constitutes success or failure?
  • 14.
  • 15. Bounded Rationality Optimizing strategies search here Satisficing strategies search here Marakas, 2003 Treat the problem NOT the symptom!!!!
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  • 20. More on Heuristics Optimisation not feasible Reliable method not available Can produce multiple solutions Symbolic processing involved Requires less cognitive effort Problems solved frequently Requires less conception time High computation time Easy to implement Input data are inexact or limited Easy to understand Appropriate Use Advantages
  • 21. Heuristic Example Starting from New York take the shortest route between cities 7580 miles Take an exterior route without crossing paths and backtracking 7005 miles Computation increases exponentially as number of cites increases – could take millions of years to process!!
  • 22.
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  • 24.