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Fool's gold
The rise and fall
of mobile content companies
and the future ahead
@benjaminjoffe	
  |	
  CEO,	
  Plus	
  Eight	
  Star	
  
BuzzCity	
  Developer	
  Garage	
  |	
  Singapore,	
  2010.11	
  
@benjaminjoffe	
  
4	
  years	
   1	
  year	
   5	
  years	
  
•  CEO,	
  Plus	
  Eight	
  Star	
  |	
  www.plus8star.com	
  
– Best	
  prac2ces	
  from	
  Asia’s	
  digital	
  space	
  
– Research,	
  Strategy	
  &	
  “Innova2on	
  Arbitrage”	
  
•  Speaker	
  
	
  100+	
  talks	
  in	
  16	
  countries	
  
•  Advisor	
  
•  Investor	
  in	
  Asia-­‐based	
  global	
  companies	
  
Angel	
  Investor,	
  Advisor,	
  Keynote	
  Speaker	
  
Mobile	
  Monday	
  Beijing	
  
4	
  years	
  
37	
  events	
  
130	
  speakers	
  
3,000	
  par2cipants	
  
For-­‐Side.com	
  (Japan)	
  
For-­‐Side	
  Story	
  
•  Market	
  cap	
  was	
  over	
  US$2B	
  
– Acquisi2ons	
  worldwide	
  
– Plunged	
  
•  Today:	
  US$110	
  million	
  (2010.11.24)	
  
•  From	
  ring	
  tones	
  to…	
  e-­‐books?	
  
Tapulous	
  
•  2009.12	
   	
   	
   	
  $1M/month	
  
•  2010.10	
   	
   	
   	
  bought	
  by	
  Disney	
  (US$35M?)	
  
•  Downloaded	
   	
   	
  35	
  million	
  2mes	
  
•  Revenue	
  2010	
   	
  $15	
  million?	
  
Can	
  you	
  build	
  one	
  today?	
  
•  Early	
  entry	
  (before	
  iPhone	
  SDK)	
  
•  Bought	
  content	
  from	
  developer	
  
•  Concept	
  copy	
  from	
  DDR	
  
•  What	
  next?	
  
ngmoco:)	
  
•  “Next	
  Genera2on	
  Mobile	
  Company”	
  
–  12	
  million	
  users	
  
–  50	
  million	
  downloads	
  
•  Funding	
  ~US$45M	
  
•  Bought	
  by	
  DeNA	
  US$300	
  million	
  (+	
  100M?)	
  
•  Revenue?	
  
Deal!	
  
•  KPCB	
  Holdings	
  (32.72%) 	
  	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  $98M	
  
•  Ins2tu2onal	
  Venture	
  Partners	
  (25.31%)	
  $76M	
  
•  Norwest	
  Venture	
  Partners	
  (13.46%)	
  	
   	
  $40M	
  
•  Neil	
  Young	
  (9.52%) 	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  $28M	
  
•  Bob	
  Stevenson	
  (9.52%)	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  $28M	
  
•  Google	
  Ventures	
  (3.65%)	
  	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  $11M	
  
•  Maples	
  Investments	
  (1.81%)	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  $5.4M	
  
High	
  Produc2on	
  Value	
  
Who	
  buys	
  today?	
  
•  Japan	
   	
  DeNA,	
  GREE:	
  x100M	
  in	
  the	
  bank	
  
•  Korea	
   	
  Maybe	
  Nexon,	
  NC	
  Soo,	
  NHN?	
  
•  China 	
   	
  Tencent?	
  Others?	
  
•  US 	
   	
   	
  Disney	
  
•  Others?	
  
Issues	
  with	
  the	
  app	
  economy	
  
•  User	
  acquisi2on:	
  Media	
  /	
  App	
  Stores?	
  
•  Virality	
  &	
  Mobile	
  silos	
  
•  Reach	
  
–  60	
  million	
  iPhones	
  
–  X	
  million	
  Android	
  phones	
  (app	
  store	
  fragmenta2on)	
  
–  7+	
  million	
  iPads	
  by	
  end	
  2010,	
  30+	
  million	
  in	
  2011?	
  
–  How	
  about	
  low-­‐end	
  phones?	
  
•  Defensibility:	
  IP	
  +	
  Game	
  mechanics?	
  
Fools’	
  Gold?	
  
•  Global	
  developers	
  on	
  par	
  with	
  Silicon	
  Valley	
  
•  Race	
  to	
  the	
  borom	
  
•  Copycats	
  
•  Building	
  sustainable	
  cash	
  flow	
  
GREE	
  (Japan)	
  
GREE	
  
•  Market	
  cap:	
  US$2.9	
  billion	
  (2010.11.24)	
  
•  From	
  web	
  +	
  ad-­‐based	
  SNS	
  to	
  mobile	
  +	
  gaming	
  
•  Ad	
  push	
  
•  Revenue	
  2010:	
  US$400M+	
  
– 60%	
  profit	
  margin	
  
DeNA	
  /	
  GREE	
  offering	
  
Celsys	
  
•  Mobile	
  Comics	
  
•  US$500M	
  /	
  year	
  market	
  
•  Leading	
  solu2on	
  provider	
  
•  IPO	
  Nov	
  4,	
  2010	
  
•  Revenue	
  US$32M	
  (E),	
  20%	
  profit	
  
Zappalas	
  
•  Mobile	
  fortune	
  telling?	
  
•  Subscrip2on	
  +	
  new	
  currency,	
  games	
  
–  2.2M	
  paying	
  subs.	
  	
  
–  285	
  staff	
  
•  US$34M	
  	
  (May-­‐July	
  2010)	
  
–  28%	
  margin	
  
–  Over	
  US$100M	
  in	
  2010	
  (E)	
  
What	
  to	
  do?	
  
•  Distribu2on	
  
•  Service	
  vs.	
  Product	
  
– Business	
  model	
  
– Sustainable	
  business	
  
•  Dealing	
  with	
  “fast	
  followers”	
  
Ques2ons?	
  
More	
  about	
  “Innova2on	
  Arbitrage”	
  
Thanks!	
  
www.plus8star.com	
  
benjamin@plus8star.com	
  	
  
benjaminjoffe	
  
hrp://twirer.com/benjaminjoffe	
  	
  
www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminjoffe	
  	
  
www.slideshare.net/plus8star	
  	
  
+81	
  |	
  Japan	
  
+82	
  |	
  Korea	
  
+86	
  |	
  China	
  
Telecom	
  &	
  Internet	
  
+	
  Added	
  Value	
  
*	
  High	
  quality	
  

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Fools Gold

  • 1. Fool's gold The rise and fall of mobile content companies and the future ahead @benjaminjoffe  |  CEO,  Plus  Eight  Star   BuzzCity  Developer  Garage  |  Singapore,  2010.11  
  • 3. 4  years   1  year   5  years  
  • 4.
  • 5. •  CEO,  Plus  Eight  Star  |  www.plus8star.com   – Best  prac2ces  from  Asia’s  digital  space   – Research,  Strategy  &  “Innova2on  Arbitrage”  
  • 6.
  • 7. •  Speaker    100+  talks  in  16  countries   •  Advisor   •  Investor  in  Asia-­‐based  global  companies   Angel  Investor,  Advisor,  Keynote  Speaker  
  • 8. Mobile  Monday  Beijing   4  years   37  events   130  speakers   3,000  par2cipants  
  • 9.
  • 11. For-­‐Side  Story   •  Market  cap  was  over  US$2B   – Acquisi2ons  worldwide   – Plunged   •  Today:  US$110  million  (2010.11.24)   •  From  ring  tones  to…  e-­‐books?  
  • 12.
  • 13. Tapulous   •  2009.12        $1M/month   •  2010.10        bought  by  Disney  (US$35M?)   •  Downloaded      35  million  2mes   •  Revenue  2010    $15  million?  
  • 14. Can  you  build  one  today?   •  Early  entry  (before  iPhone  SDK)   •  Bought  content  from  developer   •  Concept  copy  from  DDR   •  What  next?  
  • 15. ngmoco:)   •  “Next  Genera2on  Mobile  Company”   –  12  million  users   –  50  million  downloads   •  Funding  ~US$45M   •  Bought  by  DeNA  US$300  million  (+  100M?)   •  Revenue?  
  • 16. Deal!   •  KPCB  Holdings  (32.72%)              $98M   •  Ins2tu2onal  Venture  Partners  (25.31%)  $76M   •  Norwest  Venture  Partners  (13.46%)      $40M   •  Neil  Young  (9.52%)                $28M   •  Bob  Stevenson  (9.52%)              $28M   •  Google  Ventures  (3.65%)              $11M   •  Maples  Investments  (1.81%)          $5.4M  
  • 18. Who  buys  today?   •  Japan    DeNA,  GREE:  x100M  in  the  bank   •  Korea    Maybe  Nexon,  NC  Soo,  NHN?   •  China    Tencent?  Others?   •  US      Disney   •  Others?  
  • 19. Issues  with  the  app  economy   •  User  acquisi2on:  Media  /  App  Stores?   •  Virality  &  Mobile  silos   •  Reach   –  60  million  iPhones   –  X  million  Android  phones  (app  store  fragmenta2on)   –  7+  million  iPads  by  end  2010,  30+  million  in  2011?   –  How  about  low-­‐end  phones?   •  Defensibility:  IP  +  Game  mechanics?  
  • 20. Fools’  Gold?   •  Global  developers  on  par  with  Silicon  Valley   •  Race  to  the  borom   •  Copycats   •  Building  sustainable  cash  flow  
  • 22. GREE   •  Market  cap:  US$2.9  billion  (2010.11.24)   •  From  web  +  ad-­‐based  SNS  to  mobile  +  gaming   •  Ad  push   •  Revenue  2010:  US$400M+   – 60%  profit  margin  
  • 23. DeNA  /  GREE  offering  
  • 24. Celsys   •  Mobile  Comics   •  US$500M  /  year  market   •  Leading  solu2on  provider   •  IPO  Nov  4,  2010   •  Revenue  US$32M  (E),  20%  profit  
  • 25. Zappalas   •  Mobile  fortune  telling?   •  Subscrip2on  +  new  currency,  games   –  2.2M  paying  subs.     –  285  staff   •  US$34M    (May-­‐July  2010)   –  28%  margin   –  Over  US$100M  in  2010  (E)  
  • 26. What  to  do?   •  Distribu2on   •  Service  vs.  Product   – Business  model   – Sustainable  business   •  Dealing  with  “fast  followers”  
  • 28. More  about  “Innova2on  Arbitrage”   Thanks!   www.plus8star.com   benjamin@plus8star.com     benjaminjoffe   hrp://twirer.com/benjaminjoffe     www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminjoffe     www.slideshare.net/plus8star     +81  |  Japan   +82  |  Korea   +86  |  China   Telecom  &  Internet   +  Added  Value   *  High  quality