"Smart Energy - now its personal". (Watch talk video at http://conferences.theiet.org/clerk-maxwell/about/index.cfm). A talk to the Institution of Engineering and Technology about how upcoming energy innovations will change how we consume energy in the home.

1. Smart Energy – now it’s personal
Pilgrim Beart MIET
19th January 2012
pilgrim@beart.org.uk
pilgrimbeart

2. Who am I
• Computer Engineer
• Serial Entrepreneur
• Founded AlertMe
– Platform for the Smart Home
– Focussed on Home Energy Management
• Tonight: How home energy is changing

3. Tonight
1
2 3

4. The national energy balance
Supplies Demands

5. UK Energy

6. National energy
• “Sustainable” simply means “things you can keep doing”:
– Finite Source: 2bn years’ fossil fuel used in hundreds of years
– Finite Destination too: CO2
• We take energy supplies for granted
– Reliable, Affordable
– A tribute to 20th-century engineers
• Exciting things happening on supply side
– Wind, Nuclear, and one day Fusion
• …but need much more change, faster
– 2010 emissions flat, not falling (despite recession)
– Deeper cuts needed to meet carbon budgets:¶
• 34% reduction by 2020
• 80% reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990 levels)
• Can do more
– By addressing the demand side
– At low cost (even at negative cost)
¶ According to the independent Committee on Climate Change, in their 3rd Progress Report to Parliament - 30 June 2011

7. IMPORT
EXPORT
Source:
House of Commons Library

8. UK consumes ~200GW
30% in homes

9. Electricity supply becoming variable
and undispatchable
Wind is variable on many different timescales
Result:
No longer can Supply just follow Demand
Demand must start to adapt to Supply
Source: Pöyry
Source: van der Hoven

10. Home Comforts today
How much energy do we use?
Where does it come from?
Where does it go to?

11. Average UK home consumes 2.7kW

12. Today: Energy source and CO2 UK annual average
Energy Source (kW average) Emissions (kgCO2)
Electric
0.38
Electric
1650
Gas Gas
2.34 4100
Source: USWITCH JUNE 2008
UK grid 500gCO2/kWhe
Natural Gas 200gCO2/kWh

13. Today: Annual energy cost: £1,036
Typical UK home 2011
Lighting
Elec bill £528
Appliances Space
Heating
Hot
Cooker Water
Gas bill £508
(inc. shower)
Source: AlertMe ADELE tool, based on UK govt stats

14. Today: Electricity use by appliance
8,000
HOME
7,000 COMPUTING
6,000 CONSUMER
ELECTRONICS
5,000
LIGHT
ktoe
4,000
3,000
COLD
2,000
WET
1,000
COOKING
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: DECC

15. Today: UK Heating
• 10m homes have neither modern controls nor
thermostatic radiator valves1
• 47% can’t program their controls2
• Interaction:
– If cold, increase thermostat/timings until not cold
– No visibility into cost consequences
– So nothing driving you to turn it down again
Sources:
1 BERR Heat and Energy consultation 2008
2 YouGov research of 2,085 people in GB conducted on behalf of PassivSystems, April 2010

16. UK home average temperature
… but we haven’t increased our thermostats from 12°C to 18°C!
We’re heating more rooms, for longer.
Source: BRE domestic energy fact file 2008

17. Today: Daily domestic profile
UK 2011
Solar PV generation
(summer)
Heat demand
(winter)
Electrical
Load
00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00
Sources: EA Technology
EU PV GIS

18. Today: Home energy visibility
Q: How much am I using?
Q: Where is it going?
Q: What can I do to reduce it?

19. Recap: Home Energy Today
• Consumption: Invisible!
• Controls: Incomprehensible!
• Electricity: Big increase in Gadget consumption
• Gas: Big increase in Average heating temperature
• Energy prices rising (unsteadily)
– Increasing pressure to act
• So… what?
• First: insulate

20. Coming to a home near you

21. Coming to a home near you
• New energy technologies:
– for Electricity & Heat
– Creating and Managing them
– How we’ll interact with them
• Negawatts
• Consumer Gateway

22. Electricity from Solar Photo-Voltaic (PV)
13p (and rising)
per unit imported
21p
per unit generated
(from Dec 2011)
3p
per unit exported
• As Subsidy falls …. and Grid prices rise
(therefore less relevant) (therefore more painful to import electricity)
…it increasingly pays to use your own electricity

23. Heat: capture & pump
• Capture with Solar Thermal
– Engineers care about efficiency
– Consumers care about up-front cost!
• Heat Pump
– Theoretical COP of 4+
– UK trial results not nearly so good:
Source: Energy Saving Trust

24. Thermal stores
Drake Landing Solar Community, Alberta
Credit: Natural Resources Canada
Daily Annual

25. microCHP
• Generating electricity creates “waste” heat
– Do it at home and it’s no-longer waste
• Combined Heat & Power for the home
• Natural Gas  Electricity + Heat
Baxi
ecoGen
e.g. Stirling Engine Fuel cell

26. Intelligent Heating
More Less Heat More Heat
Hot Water
User instructions
Step 1: Ignore it
Step 2: Press one of 3 buttons (exceptionally) Image: WattBox

27. Intelligent Heating
• Occupancy Modern programmable
thermostat (fixed time &
temp pattern)
20 C SAVINGS
• Physiology Intelligent Heating learns
and reacts to occupancy
15 C
and occupants’ E
G
• Psychology physiological and
psychological needs 10 C
N
I
G
E
T
L
U
N
V
E
N
N
I
G
H C I H
U T
T H N
P
G
5C
improves Time of Day
all three
iPod music player Nest thermostat
by Tony Fadell by Tony Fadell

28. NegaWatts
“The cheapest Watt is the one you don’t have
to generate in the first place” (Amory Lovins)
Watts NegaWatts
Supplies Demands
Onshore wind generation Intelligent Heating
Cost: €50/MWh generated Cost: €8/MWh saved
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Research Note Assumptions: 10% household energy saved over 10 year lifetime.
“Closing the gap: grid parity for onshore wind” i.e. saves 1 year which is 23MWh. Costs €200 to fit.
2011 Global average levelised cost.

29. Energy Efficiency Feed-in Tariff?
• “Savings Aggregator” paid to get us to save
– Works on large groups
– Might be utility, community, company etc.
• SA free to use whatever means they like:
– Giving advice
– Installing hardware
– Rewards, competitions….
• Rapid and cheap to deploy
• Consumers have a rational incentive anyway
– (lower bills)
– But we aren’t rational, so we don’t!

30. Co-ordinating it all
• Imagine a scenario: Bob’s day.
– Smart Meter (with Time of Use tariff)
– Solar PV generation on his roof
– Washing-machine has a load ready to wash
– When should wash start? Who decides?
• Early visions of Smart Grid were Soviet-style
– Demand Response: pulling a big lever centrally
– But Utilities don’t want to manage consumer appliances
– And Consumers don’t want that either
• Smart Grid may emerge bottom-up
– LCNF & TSB trials exploring feasibilities
– Price-driven? Define a set of policies for your home, e.g.
• Wash my clothes for no more than £0.20/wash
• Ensure my EV is charged by 8:00am every morning
• Challenge will be to make all this truly “plug and play”

31. How will consumer react to all this?
• We are an integral “component” of the system
• Bakersfield CA, Victoria Australia, Netherlands
– SM rollout issues: Unhappy with privacy/pricing
• What do we need to do to shift
consumption?
– Engineering + Policy
• Behavioural Psychology
– Are we individuals or social?
– Habits are hard to break

32. Behavioural Change
Savings Target
Actual Savings?
Source: BEN Energy AG

33. UK Smart Meter rollout
• Cost £10bn, Benefit: £15bn (?)
• 5m installs/year = 19,000 per working day!
Source: Impact study, DECC 2011

34. UK Smart Meter architecture
Smart Gas Meter Smart Electricity Meter In Home Display (IHD)
Drives sustained
savings of 8%*
Comms Hub • Appliances
• Services
• Internet …
• Future stuff!
Consumer Gateway
DCC
*2011 Empower Demand study by VaasaETT

35. The Consumer Gateway
• Co-ordinates the home
• Puts Home Energy Management
where your attention already is,
i.e. Online
• Opens the door to future energy
services
Source: http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2011/03/mobile-to-overtake-desktop-in-eu-by.html

36. Gateway enables Data Analytics
£31.95
Top Tip
Top Tip
Top Tip

37. Summary
• Sustainability isn’t optional
– In a Finite world, we’re living beyond our means
• Need to (and can):
– Reduce demand. NegaWatts can be cheaper & faster.
– Adapt demand to supply
• 2020’s lifestyle with 1970’s consumption
• Efficiency is addictive
– As a consumer
• “What’s good for me is good for everyone else too”
– As an engineer
• Beyond just Efficiency to Parsimony

38. Engineering is about people
• Consumers’ choices determine success/failure
– Put consumers at the centre of our thinking
– Simplicity is vital
• Explain to consumers
– And learn from them
• Ensure they really benefit
– Design, implement, measure – repeat

39. References
Three must-read books:
• Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air by David MacKay http://www.withouthotair.com/
• Sustainable Materials – with both eyes open by Julian Allwood et al http://www.uit.co.uk/sustainable-materials
• How Bad are Bananas by Mike Berners Lee http://howbadarebananas.posterous.com/
Other references:
• Deeper cuts needed: Third progress report 2011 by Committee on Climate Change http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/3rd-progress-report
• Energy Imports and Exports, House of Commons Library http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN04046.pdf
• Energy Flow Chart 2010 by DECC http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/flow/flow.aspx
• Impact of Intermittency - How Wind Variability could change the shape of the British and Irish electricity markets, July 2009 by Pöyry Energy Consulting
http://www.poyry.com/linked/group/study
• Home temperature rise BRE domestic fact file 2008 http://www.bre.co.uk/filelibrary/pdf/rpts/Fact_File_2008.pdf
• Home temperature rise (a contrasting view) http://www.esrc.ac.uk/_images/Shipworth_26_Jan_09_tcm8-2390.pdf
• Framework for evaluation of Smart Grids, consultation document for Ofgem by Frontier Economics and EA Technology
http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Networks/SGF/Documents1/RPT-STC-%20SGCBA%20final1%20-181111.pdf
• Photovoltaic Geographical Information System daily output for a 2.8kW system located around Leeds, UK, available at European Commission PV GIS
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/
• 47% of consumers do not know how to program their Heating systems http://www.passivsystems.com/productPdfs/HomesOnly/Field_Trial.pdf
• 10m homes do not have modern boiler controls or TRVs http://hes.decc.gov.uk/consultation/download/index-5469.pdf
• Getting Warmer, a field trial of heat pumps, by the Energy Saving Trust http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Publications2/Generate-your-own-
energy/Getting-warmer-a-field-trial-of-heat-pumps
• Electricity use by appliance http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Statistics/publications/ecuk/269-ecuk-domestic-2010.xls
• Rise in consumer electronics energy consumption: London-Loughborough Centre for Doctoral Research in Energy Demand
http://www.lolo.ac.uk/project/view/project/54
• EE FiT: Decarbonisation on the Cheap, Dustin Benton, Green Alliance http://www.green-
alliance.org.uk/uploadedFiles/Publications/reports/Decarbonisation_on_the_cheap_dble.pdf
• IHD’s drive 8% savings, Empower Demand by VaasaETT http://www.esmig.eu/press/filestor/empower-demand-report.pdf
• UK Smart Meter Impact Study, DECC 2011 http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Consultations/smart-meter-imp-prospectus/1485-impact-assessment-
smart-metering-implementation-p.pdf

40. Smart Energy – now it’s personal
Pilgrim Beart MIET
19th January 2012
pilgrim@beart.org.uk
pilgrimbeart

41. BACKUP

42. “We basically have 3 choices:
1) Mitigation
2) Adaptation
3) Suffering
We’re going to do some of each.
The question is what the mix will be.”
John Holdren, Science Advisor to President Obama

43. © Guardian News & Media Ltd 2011. Reproduced with permission.
Estimated cost of FiTs in financial year 2011-2012 (£100m, according to Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion May 2012)

44. Tesla: AC
Edison: DC
War of the Currents
18.00
‘DC’, Fast-moving,
16.00
Energy Increasing
ICT/FUTURE
GADGETS
14.00
‘Always on’
ICT
12.00
Reduced ICT/High
Avg KHW per day
ELECTRONICS
10.00 AC mains ICT
Electronics
LIGHTING ICT Lighting
8.00
Other
ELECTRONICS
Cold
6.00 LIGHTS
Wet
Off bill
AC, Intermittent use
COLD
Energy ‘decreasing’
Slow moving goods
COLD Off peak Cooking
4.00
WET WET
2.00
COOKING COOKING
0.00
AC Base To Be AC To Be DC Saved
To Be Savings View

45. Storing electricity as heat
500°C
-160°C
Round-trip efficiency ~80%
(similar to pumped hydro)
Image courtesy of Isentropic Ltd.

46. Trouble in the neighbourhood
243VAC
216VAC
CHP HP
EV EV

47. UK Smart Meter architecture

48. Energy data
Smart Data
Smart Data Engine Customer Value
Pre-smart meter
OCCUPANCY
and Smart meter MODEL
In-home data
THERMAL
LOSS MODEL
Customer-supplied data
GAS
ANALYTICS
APPLIANCE
MODEL

49. Taming Jevons
• Jevons Paradox:
– Increased efficiency has increased consumption
– (in a world of apparently inexhaustible supply)
• But now finite resource (and sink) enforces a
ceiling on consumption
• Time to follow the principle of “Parsimony”?

50. What can we do before a Smart Grid?
• Lots!
• RLTec
• Interesting experiments
– Italy: 3kW or 6kW link changes behaviour

51. ?
?
Reflections

52. Moore’s Law
http://www.singularity.com/charts/page67.html

53. The Learning Curve
aka Experience Curve
• Moore’s Law is just a special case
• The more we make, the cheaper it gets

54. Aircraft production
Source: C. Lanier Benkard, American Economic Review 2000

55. Japanese Beer Production
(1951 – 1968)
0.05
Decrease in Retail Price
0.5
1000 10000 100000
Industry Accumulated Volume
Source: William D Eggers, Deloittes, after Wally Rhines

56. Steam turbine generators
http://www.vectorstudy.com/management_theories/experience_curve.htm

57. The 1st Industrial Revolution
Source: Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air, p19

58. LCOE from Onshore Wind Turbines
1000
500
Denmark
and
Germany
Global
100
50
14%
1984 1990 2000 2004 2011
10
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MW
LCOE = Levelised Cost of Electricity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool

59. Solar PV Learning Curve
Ken Zweibel, GW Solar Institute, George Washington University

60. Moving from T1 to T2
1st Industrial Revolution 2nd Industrial Revolution
I = P x A x T1 I=PxA
Paul & Anne Erhlich
“the Population Bomb” 1968. T2
I = Environmental Impact
P = Population
A = Affluence
T = Technology
After Ray Anderson of Flor

61. References
• FiTs costs per year by Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion May 2011
http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper145.pdf
• Moore’s Law is just a special case of the Learning Curve: “Moore’s Law is
Unconstitutional” presentation by Wally Rhines of Mentor Graphics 2005
http://www.mentor.com/company/industry_keynotes/upload/INSTATSpri
ngMicroPForum051705.pdf
• Learning Curve in Aircraft production:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~lanierb/research/Learning_and_Forgetting_A
ER.pdf
• Learning Curve in Solar PV
http://solar.gwu.edu/index_files/Resources_files/CostCompKZ.pdf
• T1 and T2. Ray Anderson TED Talk
http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_anderson_on_the_business_logic_of_susta
inability.html