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Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side November, 2009  Presented by:  Morris  Segall, President  SPG Trend Advisors
THE ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product Q1 2001 – Q3 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component  Q2 2008 – Q3 2009 ,[object Object]
Source:  World Bank The world-wide recession is over with emerging market economies led by China, India and Brazil leading the overseas recovery.  For the first time in post WWII history, the U.S. and Europe are not the locomotives of worldwide economic growth. However both the U.S. and Europe are recovering in the second half of 2009 led by government stimulus programs. Barring a “double dip “ recession next year on the expiration of government stimulus programs, the estimates below of worldwide economic growth in 2010 and 2011 are likely to be exceeded, particularly in developing countries.  *2007/08 data are actual  Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth around the World  2007 – 2011*
Year-over-year Percentage Changes: S&P Reported Operating Earning for Listed Companies Q1 2001-Q2 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Operating earnings reported by corporations included in the S&P 500 index.  The data  comes from company financial accounts and is not distorted by inventory, “write-off”, tax and depreciation adjustments.  It is a truer measure of corporate profitability.  Corporate earnings have fallen dramatically since the third quarter of 2007, falling 100% year/year in Q4 of 2008. Operating earnings are showing better year/year comparisons and are stabilizing but are still at depressed levels through Q2 of this year. Further improvement is expected in 2H of this year and 2010.
Industrial Production  January, 2008 - September, 2009 ,[object Object],% decline Jan. 08- Sep. ’09:  12.1%
Capacity Utilization by Status of Production January, 2008 - September, 2009 ,[object Object]
Manufacturers Orders & Shipments Excluding Transportation January, 2008 – September, 2009 ,[object Object]
Net Change in U.S. Jobs (Total Non-farm) October, 2005 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups October, 2007 – October, 2009 ,[object Object],The loss of jobs is pervasive throughout the entire economy and has not spared previously immune professional , executive and managerial  positions. This has been as much, if not more, a white collar, middle class recession.
Initial Unemployment Claims  January, 2009 – November, 2009 ,[object Object],Reflecting the rise in unemployment, new  job losses  rose dramatically in the first quarter of this year. Since then the trend of new job losses  has been declining.  However the absolute level of new job loss remains high.
Continued Unemployment Claims  October, 2006 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
Number of Unemployed on Federal Extended Benefit Programs July, 2008 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
Source: (Left) Census Bureau, (Right) Federal Reserve Bank ,[object Object],[object Object],Consumer spending stabilized in the second quarter and improved in the third. Since the third quarter of 2008 consumer spending has been declining and the consumer is currently paying down outstanding debt at record rates. These trends have been negative for the economy in the short term but the reduction of consumer debt and an increase in consumer savings  are positive for the  economy and the improved creditworthiness of the consumer longer term.
National Saving Rate as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income Q1 2005 – Q3 2009 ,[object Object]
[object Object],Source:  (Left) National Association of Realtors, (Right) Census Bureau  New Home Sales Units Sold  v. Length on Market  March, 2006 - September, 2009 Housing sales have improved since March and inventories have declined, particularly in new home construction. The improvement in housing reflects the government’s buyer tax credit, the cutback in new home construction, much reduced home prices and lower mortgage interest rates.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index  2006 – August, 2009 ,[object Object]
Conference Board Consumer Confidence 2005 – October, 2009 Source: Conference Board
Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS): Delinquency Rates for All Private-labels* Q2 2006 – Q2 2009 Source: Mortgage  Banker’s Association *CMBS issued by private entities (i.e. other than Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, or Freddie Mac).  The percentage of  loans that are 30-days delinquent.  The delinquency includes foreclosed estates.
Real Estate & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates: All Banks and Financial Institutions Q2 2007 –Q2 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy  and commodity prices. After bottoming in July, prices are moving up, driven by the reversal in energy prices. In addition, basic services, healthcare and education prices remain stubbornly high. Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2007 v.  2006 2008 v. 2007 6 months ended in July 2009 6 months ended in Aug.2009 6 months ended in Sep. 2009 All items 4.1% 0.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% Food at Home 5.6% 6.6% -4.5% -3.7% -3.6% Food Away Home 4.0% 5.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% Rent of Primary Res 4.0% 3.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% Household Energy 5.3% 5.9% -13.5% -12.8% -9.4% Water/Sewer/Trash  5.4% 6.5% 5.7% 7.3% 7.2% Houshold Ops 2.2% 6.0% -0.6% -.8% -0.6% Car Repair 3.3% 5.9% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% Pub. Transp 7.2% 1.8% -6.5% -.2% 6.1% Medical 5.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% Education 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 4.9% Energy 17.4% -21.3% 10.1% 12.9% 21.6%
[object Object],Crude Oil Spot Prices in U.S. Dollars November, 2004– November, 2009
[object Object],[object Object],Nominal Broad Dollar Index*  July, 2000 – November, 2009
THE GOVERNMENT’S  RESPONSE
Money Supply (M2):  January, 2007 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2011* *2010-2011 data are projections Source:  Congressional Budget Office
[object Object],Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Reserve Bank Credit June, 2008 – November, 2009
Source: (Left) Federal Reserve Bank, (Right) British Banker’s Association ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Fed and European Central Bank have cut interest rates to the banking systems here and abroad thus driving down the cost of bank funds to facilitate bank lending.
What’s on the other side?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s on the other side? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are the opportunities? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Overview of Where the $787 Billion is Going: Break-down of the Stimulus Dollars by Sectors Source:  Recovery.gov
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank You ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

  • 1. Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side November, 2009 Presented by: Morris Segall, President SPG Trend Advisors
  • 3. Gross Domestic Product Q1 2001 – Q3 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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  • 5. Source: World Bank The world-wide recession is over with emerging market economies led by China, India and Brazil leading the overseas recovery. For the first time in post WWII history, the U.S. and Europe are not the locomotives of worldwide economic growth. However both the U.S. and Europe are recovering in the second half of 2009 led by government stimulus programs. Barring a “double dip “ recession next year on the expiration of government stimulus programs, the estimates below of worldwide economic growth in 2010 and 2011 are likely to be exceeded, particularly in developing countries. *2007/08 data are actual Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth around the World 2007 – 2011*
  • 6. Year-over-year Percentage Changes: S&P Reported Operating Earning for Listed Companies Q1 2001-Q2 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Operating earnings reported by corporations included in the S&P 500 index. The data comes from company financial accounts and is not distorted by inventory, “write-off”, tax and depreciation adjustments. It is a truer measure of corporate profitability. Corporate earnings have fallen dramatically since the third quarter of 2007, falling 100% year/year in Q4 of 2008. Operating earnings are showing better year/year comparisons and are stabilizing but are still at depressed levels through Q2 of this year. Further improvement is expected in 2H of this year and 2010.
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  • 19. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 2005 – October, 2009 Source: Conference Board
  • 20. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS): Delinquency Rates for All Private-labels* Q2 2006 – Q2 2009 Source: Mortgage Banker’s Association *CMBS issued by private entities (i.e. other than Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, or Freddie Mac). The percentage of loans that are 30-days delinquent. The delinquency includes foreclosed estates.
  • 21. Real Estate & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates: All Banks and Financial Institutions Q2 2007 –Q2 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
  • 22. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy and commodity prices. After bottoming in July, prices are moving up, driven by the reversal in energy prices. In addition, basic services, healthcare and education prices remain stubbornly high. Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2007 v. 2006 2008 v. 2007 6 months ended in July 2009 6 months ended in Aug.2009 6 months ended in Sep. 2009 All items 4.1% 0.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% Food at Home 5.6% 6.6% -4.5% -3.7% -3.6% Food Away Home 4.0% 5.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% Rent of Primary Res 4.0% 3.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% Household Energy 5.3% 5.9% -13.5% -12.8% -9.4% Water/Sewer/Trash 5.4% 6.5% 5.7% 7.3% 7.2% Houshold Ops 2.2% 6.0% -0.6% -.8% -0.6% Car Repair 3.3% 5.9% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% Pub. Transp 7.2% 1.8% -6.5% -.2% 6.1% Medical 5.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% Education 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 4.9% Energy 17.4% -21.3% 10.1% 12.9% 21.6%
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  • 25. THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE
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  • 27. U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2011* *2010-2011 data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office
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  • 33. Overview of Where the $787 Billion is Going: Break-down of the Stimulus Dollars by Sectors Source: Recovery.gov
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