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Marke&ng in a recession: 
If I ignore them, will they just stay? 
The man who stops adver0sing to save 
money is like the man who stops the 
clock to save 0me.  
Thomas Jefferson. 
SPOT the disconnec&on
                     
Shareholder value 
          EPS 
 Customer contribu0on 
        EBITDA 
Compe00ve differen0a0on 
    Top‐line growth 
        Margin 
   BoEom‐line growth 
Awareness 
   Predisposi0on 
Reach  & Frequency   
  Response rates 
    Open rates 
   Click throughs 
  CPM, CPC, CPA 
Net promoter scores 
ques&ons you 
 should be able to 
   answer 
If your marke0ng budget is  

reduced by 10% what 
 impact that will have on business 
           growth? 
On what basis are your 
objec&ves set each year? 
Do you know the geographic 
impacts of your marke&ng? 
Can you iden0fy your media 
 returns by channel? 
At what point does your marke&ng 
      investment tail off? 
Beware of the propaganda 
Ar7cle extract: 
The experience of General Motors provides an excellent example of the need to match problems to solu0ons 
that will work. President Barack Obama was insighQul when he insisted that Rick Wagoner be replaced as CEO 
of General Motors before any bailout funds were offered to GM. Mr. Wagoner had spent several years trying to 
make GM profitable by reducing costs at every opportunity, including huge cuts 
in the marke0ng and adver0sing budget. That strategy clearly did not work for the following reasons: 


Lost market share. GM had 52% of the automo0ve market in the late 1960s but only 24% in 2008. It 
was profitable when its market share was high but not when its market share was cut by more than half. 


Costly cost cuHng. Closing factories saves opera0ng expenses but s0ll affects the balance sheet: Fewer 
 •  52% share with popula0on of 190 million in 1965 vs 24% of 305 million in 2008? 
factories means fewer vehicles manufactured and available to sell, yet the factory remains on the balance 
sheet. The return on investment on a closed factory is zero, but its liquida0on may take years. Closing a factory 
 •  3 core brands in 1965 – Ford, Chrysler, GM – how many now when considering 
is expensive. So is restar0ng one. 
      luxury, European, Asian products 

 •  This argument may not have the necessary trac0on without underlying $$$$’s…. 
Ignored product planning and life‐cycle &ming. If product research and development is cut 
in difficult economic condi0ons, the company may not have sufficient new products coming on line to augment 
the product porQolio. This results in too many mature products subject to high price compe00on, low 
profitability and not enough new products in the growth stage of their life cycles. 
cost‐based solu0ons  
DO NOT always solve  
demand‐driven problems 
What gets cut when there is a 
    budget downgrade?  

Media channels don’t have a 
  linear rela&onship. 
CMO CURRENT INVESTMENT FOCUS 




 Source: Epsilon’s 2008 CMO Survey ‐ 63% of the 175 CMOs and markeJng execs surveyed report that their spending on 
 interacJve/digital markeJng has risen, while 59% report a decrease in tradiJonal markeJng spend 
MARKETING INVESTMENT 
              To offset budget cuts, CMOs are shifing to more targeted and 
               measurable marke0ng strategies.  

              To determine target market for each channel: 
                        50% said they use data‐driven marke0ng techniques 

                        31% stated they use sophis0cated modeling tools to analyze exis0ng customer
                                                                                                    
                         data (behavioral, preference and demographic) 

                        19% said that they analyze past purchase behavior 

                        In contrast, 28% said they made “rough es0mates based on past experience. 


Source: Epsilon’s 2008 CMO Survey  
New research commissioned by News Digital Media has revealed that 
accountability is the top issue facing marketers today. The study, conducted by 
research company Core Data of more than 288 marke0ng professionals, showed 
that marketers are experiencing greater scru&ny 
from management with the majority of 
respondents (61%) saying they were required to 
show more accountability in their decision making 
as a result of the downturn. It also revealed that repor0ng cycles were becoming 
shorter term for a majority of respondents (57%) and that planning cycles span 
less than six months for 66% of marketers. 

Source: B&T Magazine, July 2009 
CHANGES TO TIMEFRAMES 




Source: News Digital Media Insights Report, July 2009 
CHANGES TO THE MEDIA MIX 




Source: News Digital Media Insights Report, July 2009 
Is reten&on the new 
      acquisi0on? 
Brands that increase adverJsing 
during a recession, when compe0tors are cukng 
back, can improve market share and return on 
investment at lower cost during good economic 
0mes… 
                       Prof John Quelch, Harvard Business School 
Is there a marke0ng investment strategy? 
Do things change if you look 
      customer‐
through a 
centric lens?  
Think 
through   
targe0ng  
EXECUTION = 10% 




PROPOSITION = 30% 
‐  WHAT                               TARGETING = 60% 
‐  ACTION                             ‐  WHO 
‐  NEEDS                              ‐  WHY 
Source: Drayton Bird                  ‐  WHEN 
IT’S NOW ALL ABOUT REACHING THE 
CUSTOMERS WHO COUNT 



                  NOT 
    COUNTING THE CUSTOMERS YOU REACH 
So if its not you controlling the 
   MESSAGE then who is? 
UNDERSTANDING HOW ENGAGED 
        ENTERPRISES REALLY ARE 

•    1% of customer conversa0ons are assimilated as 
     organiza0onal knowledge 

•    9% of customer conversa0ons touch the organiza0on, but no 
     learning occurs 

•    90% of customer conversa0ons never touch the organiza0on 

                         Greg Oxton from the ConsorJum for Service InnovaJon (CSI)  
Source: h^p://www.flickr.com/photos/jm3/98030303 
What can happen in one day…… 
The “power” of Social Media 
Icerocket shows a commenters “influence” 
through the number of followers they have 




                         17 pages of comments – in 12 hours 
                         40 comments to a page 
Not all comments 
were cri&cal 
All of this in a day – a response 
  delivered late afernoon so 
         now dealt with? 
OK – all fixed. Or is it? 
Leverage crea&vity and 
    customer insights… 
Crea&ve use of market condi&ons  
extended into product offers 
Making a (consistent) point. 
Did someone say FREE? 
Changes in 

channels 
COMMBANK 
CMO TAKES 
 DM “JUNK” 
  TO TASK 
“Most direct marke&ng is 
                            junk. It’s dumb because it’s lazy 
                            marke&ng, it’s void of data 
                            insights and has no clear 
                            targe0ng, no clear offer, and 
                            no real reason for customers 
                            to take those offers up because 
                            ofen it doesn’t reflect what the 
                            brand stands for,” he said. 

Source: B&T 10 July 2009 
“This is an industry that s0ll talks 
                            about the fact that a 2% 
                            response rate is a good result. 
                            But that’s a 98% non‐response 
                            rate. So it’s not good enough. 
                            It’s not good enough for the CBA, 
                            and it shouldn’t be good enough 
                            for you guys either.” 

Source: B&T 10 July 2009 
3+
3+ reach  
‐ the universally agreed point 
 of first comprehension of an 
     adver0sing message 
Is 3+ really the solu0on? 

What impact can a good idea 
have on the need to invest $$$’s 
into TARP’s to achieve 3+? 
You cannot bore people into 
buying your product.  
                   David Ogilvy. 
•  40+% increase in number of campaigns FY08 v FY09 
•  75+% total number of emails sent FY08 v FY09 
   •  360+ million to 650+ million 
•  Number of recipients per campaign up 45% 
Tes&ng to op0mise 
      results 
REASONS FOR NOT TESTING 




Source: eROI, 2009 
ELEMENTS THAT ARE BEING TESTED 




Source: eROI, 2009 
The impact of “subscrip0on”? 
Source: The Works, 2009 
DECREASED conversions 
                              22.9%  
                            by 



Source: The Works, 2009 
Which applica0on would 
                             be most effec0ve? 
Source: The Works, 2009 
Version 1 is 10 points beEer 
                                         BUT 
                     leads were of   lesser quality  


Source: The Works, 2009 
Good marketers,  
through the range of channels available from tv to 
online, e‐mail to direct mail, promo0ons and PR,  

                know how  
   to solve demand‐driven problems. 
AFTER ALL,  
isn’t that what marketers do? 
So, what’s the 

  plan? 
Ideas over 
execu&on. 
Customer focus not 
 product focus. 
Test. Test.  
Test. 
Cheap doesn’t always 
equal    effec&ve.  
Debate / argue /discuss  
  in the language of  
   business.  
Source: Hugh McLeod, Gaping Void, 2009 
!
email: phil@ideagarden.com.au 
twiEer: twiEer.com/phillipsmith 
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/philsprofile 

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