This update was provided as a live interactive webcast to the members of the National Assoication of Manufacturer's Allied Organizations on Thursday, April 11, 2013.
2. 69.5%
73.9%
74.5% 74.9%
82.8%
86.4%
65.4%
80.2%
88.7%
83.1%
69.2%
51.8%
70.1%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1
Manufacturing Business Outlook
By Quarter, 2010-2013
Source: NAM/Industry Week Survey of Manufacturers
Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook at somewhat or very positive. Percentages
are annual averages. Q4:2010 and Q1:2011 data are imputed from comparable data using a regression model.
4. 75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Regressing NAM/IndustryWeek Data
to Predict Future Industrial Production
Industrial Production Industrial Production (Predicted)
Prediction for Industrial Production Q3:2013
↑ 0.4 % Y-O-Y
Or, ↑ 1.5 % from Q1:2013
5. Source: NAM/Industry Week Survey of Manufacturers
Note: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100 percent.
4.7%
27.9%
37.3%
41.1%
49.9%
67.7%
72.1%
74.0%
Challenges with access to capital or other forms of financing
Weaker global growth and slower export sales
Rising energy and raw material costs for our products
Attracting and retaining a quality workforce
Weaker domestic economy and sales for our products to U.S.
customers
Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulation)
Uncertainties related to the political climate (e.g., debt/deficit
debate, pending budget cuts)
Rising health care/insurance costs
Primary Current Business Challenges,
First Quarter 2013
6. -10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Real Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2005 Dollars)
Real GDP Forecast:
↑ 1.8% (2011)
↑ 2.2% (2012)
↑ 2.4% (2013)
Forecast
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations using Moody’s Analytics simulation model
10. -1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 13-Jan Feb
% Changes in Manufacturing Production, 2012-2013
Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods
Percent
Source: Federal Reserve Board
15. 4.3
7.1
10.3
11.7
21.1
44.9
52.2
130.7
167.8
176.6
Petroleum and coal products
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing
Electrical equipment and appliances
Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing
Food manufacturing
Plastics and rubber products
Primary metals
Machinery
Transportation equipment
Fabricated metal products
Manufacturing Sectors with the Largest Net
Employment Gains YTD, in Thousands of Employees
(December 2009 to March 2013)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. Some Ongoing Strengths in the Economy
A Recovering Housing Market
Historically Low Interest Rates
Modest Growth in Consumer Spending
Growth in Exports, Albeit at a Slower Pace
Lower Energy Costs, Aided by Shale Exploration
Increased Signs of Reshoring, Improved Global Competitiveness
31. Tremendous Promise of Shale Gas
– PwC (December 2011) with the NAM:
U.S. manufacturing companies could employ approximately one million more
workers by 2025 due to the benefits of affordable energy and demand for
products used to extract the gas.
This same study found that, because of increased shale exploration, lower
feedstock and energy costs could help U.S. manufacturers reduce natural gas
expenses by as much as $11.6 billion annually through 2025.
– We have already seen how the shale gas revolution has transformed
communities, helped to lift employment, and provide tremendous
potential moving forward.
– Energy costs are a competitive advantage for U.S. manufacturers right
now.
34. $0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Federal Mandatory Spending, 2012-2023
(in Trillions of Dollars)
Social Security Medicare, Net of Receipts Total Mandatory Spending Medicaid
Source: Congressional Budget Office, February 2013
35. The United States needs a comprehensive
plan for economic growth and
competitiveness.
36. GOAL 1
The United States will be the best place in the world to manufacture and
attract foreign direct investment.
Manufacturers have an array of attractive options around the world when deciding
where to invest, conduct research, build new facilities and create jobs.
Create a pro-manufacturing tax policy.
Embrace an “all-of-the above” approach to energy production.
Modernize and invest in infrastructure.
Ensure that the benefits of regulations justify their costs to manufacturers in the
United States.
Implement common-sense, fair legal reform.
Reduce health care costs for both patients and providers.
37. Manufacturers in the United States will be the world’s leading innovators.
Innovation propelled the United States to its global leadership position in manufacturing.
But other nations are eager to take our place and are establishing more attractive R&D
incentives than those offered by the United States.
Provide a strong, permanent and competitive R&D incentive.
Support federal research agencies and public- and private-sector research.
Recognize IP as the basis of America’s innovative economy.
Develop appropriate general and industry-specific best practices for improved
cybersecurity.
Support the growth of a healthy information and communication technology
ecosystem.
GOAL 2
38. The United States will expand access to global markets to enable
manufacturers to reach the 95 percent of consumers who live outside our
borders.
Promote a global trade policy that opens international markets, enhances
competitiveness and reduces regulatory and tariff barriers.
Reduce trading costs, domestic export barriers and unnecessary red tape.
Boost exports through improved export promotion programs and export credit
assistance for both small and large manufacturers.
Ensure a level playing field for manufacturers by enforcing trade laws and
international agreements.
GOAL 3
39. Manufacturers in the United States will have access to the
workforce that the 21st–century economy demands.
Address regulations and mandates that undermine employer
flexibility and ultimately discourage the hiring of new
employees.
Develop a more productive workforce and encourage
innovation through education reforms and improvements.
Enact comprehensive immigration reform.
Attract the best and brightest to the United States.
GOAL 4