Dr Nina Fedoroff's presentation on boosting agriculture and developing genetically engineered crops

1. Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate
Nina V. Fedoroff
Nina V. Fedoroff
Science and T echnology Advis er to the U. S. Secretary of State
Science and T echnology Advis er to the U. S. Secretary of State
and to the Admi nistrator of USAID
and to the Admi nistrator of USAID
Concerns about food security are not new……
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_Population.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:An_Essay_on_the_Princi le_of_Popul tion.jpg
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www.nndb.com/people/250/000024178/malthus.jpg
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2. Chemical fertilization
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Fritz Haber
Fritz Haber
Carl Bosch
Carl Bosch
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Mechanization
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iStock photo 000003424427
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3. Scientific agriculture is not universal
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Genetic modification
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4. Molecular genetic modification: insect-resistant Bt maize
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Global population growth continues
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5. Arable land is limited
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The food crisis of 2008
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Source: FAO
Source: FAO
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6. Increasing global temperatures
Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004)
Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004)
Impact of climate change on crops
2003
Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti
Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti
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7. Projected growing season temperatures
Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario.
Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario.
Variability taken from obs ervations
Variability taken from obs ervations
Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti
Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti
Projected growing season temperatures
Battisti and Naylor 2008
Battisti and Naylor 2008
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8. The relationship between temperature and crop yield
Schlenk er and Roberts 2009, PNAS
Schlenk er and Roberts 2009, PNAS
A third of the world’s population already lives in drylands
Slide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
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Slide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion Uni ersity of the Negev
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9. Water scarcity will increase in many populous places
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Slide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management Institute
Slide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management Institute
The shape of the future
What will be LESS abundant?
Energy
Fresh water
Arable land
What will be MORE abundant?
People (demand)
Desert
Heat
What does that mean?
Today’s crops will not suffice for tomorrow’s world
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10. What will it take to adapt agriculture to climate
change?
Conventional breeding for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity
Molecular modification for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity
Out-of-the-box thinking: new crops, new methods, new systems
Desert and saline agriculture
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International Center for Agricultural Resear ch in the Dry Areas (ICAR DA), Aleppo, Syria
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11. Desert agriculture
Photo courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak,
Photo courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak,
Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research
Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research
Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
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Water requirements of food crops
1 kg fish – 10 liters of water
1 kg fish – 10 liters of water
1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water
1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water
1 kg beef – 5000-20,000 liters of water!
Adapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
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Adapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion Uni ersity of the Negev
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12. Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
13 km Seawater River
Seawater F arms Bahia Kino
Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
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13. Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
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14. Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate
Nina V. Fedoroff
Nina V. Fedoroff
Science and T echnology Advis er to the Secretar y of State
Science and T echnology Advis er to the Secretar y of State
and to the Admi nistrator of USAID
and to the Admi nistrator of USAID
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