A paper by an Indian researcher claiming a correlation between major weather events and earthquakes.

1. “REGIONAL WEATHER CHANGES OVER THE AUSTRALIAN REGIONS AS
EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR TO THE REGIONS SURROUNDING AUSTRALIA”
Abstract:
My field of study and the area of interest are very narrowly confined to expose, how the
weather patterns in Australia are systematically affected by geological process of the
regions surrounding Australia. This same regional weather changes over Australia as
precursor to respective quakes in the regions surrounding the Indian continent. The
regional weather change precursor type is the one and only possible reliable prediction
of any individual earthquakes. Natural hazards like Cyclones and earthquakes caused
greatest risks for causalities and costly damage worldwide. With the ongoing extensive
research in the formation of tropical cyclone and earthquake prediction, this article can
be treated as a wake –up call to the scientists for finding scientific solutions to both. The
effect is not simply due to chance but to expose the flawed understanding of the
cyclone formations. Instead to suppress my idea at the rudimentary level, it is quite
obviously correct to analyze my findings and correlations scientifically.
Keywords – regional weather –regional quake –Australia – Indonesia – Southwest
Pacific Islands.
Introduction:
There is currently no reliable way to predict the days or months when an earthquake will
occur in any specific location. For seismologists and scientists, the accurate, reliable
prediction of individual earthquakes is a realistic scientific goal. However it is strange to
believe that except precise time, it is quite scientifically possible to predict any damaging
earthquakes before it strike. Each and every form of regional weather changes is
followed by respective regional quakes in a repeatable manner and the
happenings of earthquakes in a given region have a recurrent pattern. There is
therefore, something to be learnt from each such incident. Here the findings are
observation based correlations. The onset of any regional weather changes set a time
scale of advancing the regional quakes usually within 15 to 30 days. However, in a very
few cases the time scales and magnitude do vary substantially as a consequence
of local site geology and other factors.
According to the latest study, the relations that exist between the weather changes with
the seismic events are practically recorded. “The scientists did not detect any slow
events during the typhoon-free season. Eleven of the 20 slow earthquakes coincided
with typhoons” Typhoons Trigger Slow Earthquakes, by Liu, C., Linde, A. T. & Sacks, I.
S. Nature 459, 833-836 (2009).
The prime purpose of this paper too is a serious attempt to identifying the nature’s valid
scientific earthquake precursors and expose, one of the most significant correlations
found to exist between the all form of regional weather changes and with the subsequent
respective regional quakes. This article presents new scientifically reliable way of
forecasting quakes. Regional weather changes are the first evidence of the any
forthcoming quakes in the respective region, however, this idea is not taken
seriously by many seismologists because they were failed in their attempts. So far
the unanticipated natural events like weather changes now can tell the information about
the advancing quakes. Though I have my recordings around the globe but here I
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2. summarizes for the regions surrounding Australia only. Several studies have been made
to predicting quakes reliably but unsuccessful so far, however I hope the weather
precursor to quakes, will become a valuable seminal resource for understanding the
overall relations that exist between the weather changes and the quakes and helps to
mitigate the effects of future great earthquakes and tsunami like nature's fury .Here I just
reproduced what I just observed- the two related events happened at different times but
one event is the byproduct of another. As I am not associated with any seismological lab
and I could not get necessary support to formulate my findings in a mathematical form,
however Geophysicists and Seismologists can further develop these findings in a more
refined way using applicable mathematical formulations.
Here I am recording the regional weather changes over the Australian regions and the
resulting quakes around the Australian regions. The overall weather changes in Australia
are due to the geological process that surrounding the Australian regions. All of the
processes that are related here started long before humans existed and will likely persist
long after we have gone.
CORE CONCEPT: “Weather Precursor to Quakes”
It is incorrect to assume that prediction of an individual earthquake is inherently
impossible since other previous works have been notoriously unsuccessful. The exact
success of predicting quakes reliably and accurately depends on the careful study of the
respective over all regional weather changes. The causes of the geological processes
within the earth, having its effects on the atmospheric anomalies indicate the necessary
to understand the interdependencies of weather and quakes. Earth quake is not a long
term process what the scientists now strongly believe but like weather changes it
is only a short term process – only few weeks to few months. For a specific quake,
by means of task of identifying the regional weather changes, at this stage, it is quite
possible to estimate the location & size of an impending quakes based on the quantity of
flood amount; cyclone strength and the unusual blistering heat but except the exact
precise time.
Earthquakes are neither chaotic nor complex; it is happening quite in an orderly pattern,
the sequences of regional earthquake after respective regional weather changes
are repeatable. Like cyclones, the earthquakes occur in the same general patterns and
originate year after year, principally in certain zones of the earth. Weather changes are
the integrated phenomena of earthquakes, particularly at the origin level. No doubt, all
the earthquakes have respective regional weather changes as very obvious and
unambiguous precursors.
Same Dynamic earth forces for all form of weather changes and the generation of
seismic activity:
The geological process within the earth is the direct and primary cause for all form of
weather changes - the formation and strengthening of powerful tropical cyclone; days of
heavy rain, massive flooding and mudslides; melting snow, heavy snowfall, fog and
intense cold wave; high winds and thick plume of dust storm; blighting extreme heat
waves and forest fire; massive waves hit the shores and subsequent happenings of
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3. quakes. Though the collective form of regional weather changes and the respective
quakes are seem to be separate phenomena, but origin wise (geological process within
the earth) all are same. Here are the collections of my study - shows the significant
correlation exist between the specific regional devastating weather changes and
followed by respective regional destructive earthquakes.
For instance, for any specific Cyclone, after its formation, the “land fall” may be, even
thousands of kilometers away from its origin but both the geological coordinates of the
formation of cyclone and the “focus” of the resulting quakes have the closeness. The
resulting magnitude of the quakes will also depend on the severity of the weather
changes; similar to the intensity of a cyclone how depending on the temperature of
ocean surface.
Tropical cyclones originate on the eastern side of Oceans but move west. Most of these
systems form between 10 and 30 degrees away from the equator and 87% form no
farther away than 20 degrees of latitude north or south. Not only cyclones, major
earthquakes and volcanism also occur along these belts, indicating that and these three
disastrous activities are also often closely related and correspondingly responding the
same dynamic earth forces.
Methodology :
The heat generating system is at the Ocean bed (Mechanical stress liberates heat
energy)
Normally, when any material is subjected to enormous mechanical stress, it liberates
heat energy between the yield point and the tensile point.
During the process of an earthquake, two blocks of the Earth’s crust slide past one
another generating massive amounts of frictional heat. In fact, Kanamori & Brodsky
(2001) describe earthquakes as thermal events more than seismic events because most
of the energy release during an earthquake goes into heat rather than seismic waves.
The unobserved enormous amount of frictional heat energy generated and released
during the entire process of a geological process within the earth (the giant plates
equivalent to 100 km thickness when brush past each other or collide with each other)
prior to an earthquake(s) could be responsible for the all form overall resulting weather
changes and the Sea surface warming any particular region. This large amounts of
generated heat within the earth, reaches on to the Ocean surface by means of
convection, and thus, large amounts of steamy water rise off the ocean, forming an area
of low pressure (tropical depression). For instance, the Island regions from PNG to
Tasmania encircling the entire eastern side of Australia are the birth place for scores of
tropical storms every year.
It is from the observations ,that any form of atrocious weather changes happened in any
region, strongly illustrates the powerful seismic forces at work underground and the
process for an earth quake is over in that specific region and have to wait for the large
scale cracking of ground!. The duration from tensile point to break point (quakes)
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4. tectonic plates are normally 15 to 30 days in most cases ,sometimes with numerous
fore-shocks.
Results
Three basic needs for predicting quakes - fixing of Location, Magnitude and Time:
(Based on the table 5)
i ) Location:
The geological coordinates of the geological process within the earth responsible for the
regional weather changes will very closely match with the location of the resulting
specific quakes in the same region. Mostly the geological coordinates of the resulting
quakes will happen well within 5 degree latitude difference with that of the location of
cyclone formation, but in some cases it was up to 10.
ii) Magnitude:
Normally any destructive regional weather changes will always followed by destructive
large-magnitude quakes. Based on my observations for any Cyclone with wind speed in
the category 3 and above in the Saffir-Simpson scale; week long incessant rain and
huge flood associated with blazing heat, no doubt, the resulting quakes will have the
Magnitude of 6 and above, however with numerous foreshocks.
iii) Time
Except with very few occasions, normally the time interval between the regional weather
changes and the respective specific quakes will results within 10 to 15 days.
By monitoring the regional weather precursors very carefully, scientists can determine
what stage the earthquake is in and possible to predict when the earthquake will occur.
Like seasonal weather changes, earthquakes are also having a cyclic pattern to occur
year after year except its magnitude, which will vary with the extremity of the regional
weather changes.
ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES
Nature has no boundary, what each and every country has! The geological process of
one nation will affect the weather of other neighboring nations and also sometimes
cause large scale death and destruction. With the precise nature of the interaction
between the atmosphere and the Ocean is not fully understood, the weather changes
are the interaction between the geological process within the earth and the atmosphere
and in no way to claim that solar energy alone responsible for any form of weather
changes. Without any geological process probably there would be no weather changes
on the surface of the earth. Regional monsoon anomalies are due to effect of the
respective geological process within the earth.
List of Descripancies :-
Theory on Cyclone formation contrary to basic physics :
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5. For any tropical cyclone formation, according to the existing theory, the solar heating is
the initial source for evaporation. And the factors like, moisture and surface temperature
distribution over water are responsible for the formation of tropical depression. In most
situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 degree C (80 degree F) are needed down
to a depth of at least 50m (150 feet) for a cyclone formation.
The following evidences are contrary to the theory, that the solar heating is the initial
source for weather changes.
1. The enormous amount of energy continuously emitted by the sun is dispersed into
outer space in all directions. And only a small fraction of this energy is intercepted by
the earth and other solar planets. The solar constant value is estimated on the basis of
the solar radiation received on a unit area exposed perpendicularly to the rays of the sun
at an average distance between the sun and the earth. It is approximately 1.4 kW/m2, or
2.0 cal/cm2/min. How this fraction of energy is converted and used into the generation of
a deadly hurricane which can expend as much energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs!
Both the cyclones and quakes occur in the same general patterns and originate year
after year, principally in certain basins and zones of earth but unable to predict both the
events precisely. If the two events are of different origin at least on one occasion and at
least at one place, the both events could have happened simultaneously at least once by
chance anywhere in the world, but so far not happened! It is scientifically true that the
incoming solar radiation is the same on the same date irrespective of the year, the actual
conditions of the surface of the tropical Oceans are by no means the same on the same
date of each year. But still the prediction of a monsoon is unsuccessful, though with the
help of advanced computer modeling and satellite images are available.
Again it would be impossible for the scientists to predict when and where will the next
cyclone will develop and what strength it can attain maximum? Because sometimes the
low depression instantly die down itself with the same speed as it formed over the
Ocean; sometimes develop monstrously and move violently towards the land or maintain
its presence for a quite long time as long as the Ocean feeds heat energy to the storm.
But quake will follow without failure.
2. Further the worldwide tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer that is in the
aphelion (farthest from Sun) position of the earth with respect to the sun. If the solar
energy as the primary heating source of the Ocean, then the tropical cyclones should be
peak in the perihelion (nearest to Sun) position but it is contradictorily peak in the
aphelion position of the earth. On a world wide scale, May is the least active month,
while September is the most active month.
3.No Cyclone formations over major rivers and lakes. Why?
Heating the Ocean and Direction of convection: Only with the up-ward direction of
convection (Surface cold water replaced by the bottom warm water), it is possible to
maintain the Ocean water temperature at least 26.5 degree C (80 degree F) up to the
depth of 50 meters or even more. Again this could be possible only when there is an
unlimited supply of tremendous amount of heat generating system at the Ocean bed and
not by means of solar heating alone over the Ocean surface for evaporation.
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6. • When the solar energy is well enough to heating the Ocean then why the
Cyclone formation is confined to the Ocean alone and not formed over any major
rivers like Nile, Amazon or Mississippi-Missouri and over the lakes like Baikal
(having depth 1620m), Tanganyika (1463m) or the Caspian Sea (1025m)?
• Further, after the formation of a Cyclone, it continuously intensifies not only in
day times but also during the night times over the surface of the Ocean basin
where it formed until it die down, that clearly indicates the solar energy in no way
connected with the crucial role in the formation and strengthening of a cyclone.
4. Warm Ocean water and more number of formation of cyclonic depressions
around the group of Island regions Comparatively less at island free regions:
Too many low depressions and quakes are happening mostly concentrated around the
Island regions only. This is starting with PNG to Tasmania of South Pacific Ocean on the
eastern side of Australia and on the other hand in the Western region of Australia ,only
very few low depressions and quakes happens, since there are only very few Islands are
there. The concentration of group of Island land masses are constantly ploughing into
the Ocean and produce enormous amount of frictional heat. This frictional heat used to
keep the Ocean waters warm. Hence the eastern coast of Australia is warmer than its
western side. This clearly indicates that, the Ocean waters are warm only around the
Island concentrated basins and clearly disproves that solar energy heats-up the Ocean
water.
Eastern side of Australia is densely populated with Island regions and also known for
more active for Volcanoes , quakes and all form of weather changes including frequent
events of storms.
5.There seems to be no relations exist between the depth and wide area of water
masses responsible for the formation of cyclones world wide:
For instance, large basins like south Atlantic, south Indian Ocean and even Arabian Sea
(surface area is about 3,862,000 km2 (1,491,000 sq mi)) are comparatively less active
for Cyclone and earthquakes with that of the much more active smaller basins like Gulf
of Mexico, Baja California, Caribbean the Bay of Bengal and Mediterranean sea (area of
2.5 million km²(965,000 sq mi)) .
Energy Paralance :
Massive Amount of Energy released by Cyclones- Quakes- Volcanoes:
So far no one knows exactly how a hurricane is made. The force and the amount of
energy release are so tremendous by Volcanoes, Cyclones and quakes.
Table:3
Cyclone Quake Volcano
Scientists at the National As per USGS, the It was calculated that the
Center for Atmospheric tremendous amount of Volcano eruption of Mt. Saint
Research estimate that a energy released of Helens in US in 1980
tropical cyclone releases Dec.2004,M9 earthquake released an estimated 1.7 x
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7. heat energy at the rate of rupture was equivalent to 10^18 Joules of energy over
50 to 200 trillion joules per 23,000 Hiroshima Bombs or a nine hour period. This is
day or to exploding a 10- 20x10^17 joules. equivalent to detonating
megaton nuclear bomb 27,000 Hiroshima-size
every 20 minutes. In fact, nuclear bombs at the rate of
during its life cycle a one detonation per second
hurricane can expend as over a 7.5 hour period. The
much energy as 10,000 temperature of the ejecta at
nuclear bombs! the mouth must be of the
order of 900 degree Celsius
and by the time it reaches
the sea it cools down to 500
– 600 degree Celsius.
CONCLUSION:
“Every individual Quake coming with weather precursor of prior warnings”
Just as the Coriolis force has its effect on the spiraling hurricane shape, the orbital
motion of the earth with respect to the Sun responsible for the seasonal variations on the
earth. In that way, if the seasonal variation on the earth theory is valid scientifically, then
the orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun alone responsible for the driving
force tectonic plate motion and the generation of quakes on the earth. This is why both
the inclement weather changes and quakes are continuous, uncertain and repeatable.
“Every individual Quake coming with ‘weather precursor’ as prior warnings”
Just as the Coriolis force has its effect on the spiraling hurricane shape, the orbital
motion of the earth with respect to the Sun responsible for the seasonal variations on the
earth. In that way, if the seasonal variation on the earth theory is valid scientifically, then
the orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun alone responsible for the driving
force tectonic plate motion and the generation of quakes on the earth. This is why both
the inclement weather changes and quakes are continuous, uncertain and repeatable.
Discussion and Conclusion:
1. No cyclone formation over major rivers and lakes and the Island free basins.
2 If the solar energy is the prime source of Cyclone formation then more cyclone
formation will happen at the perihelion position of the earth with respect to the Sun but
no such correlation observed.
3. Regions with group of island land masses in the Oceans are warmer than the island
free regions indicates constant seismic activities at work.
4. At the Island free regions the seismic activities are considerably less.
5. Seasonal effects are due to the position of the earth with respect to the Sun and the
same orbital motion of the earth around the sun triggers constant large-scale effects of
plate tectonics.
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8. Finally when all these factors are taken into account, it can be observed that the weather
changes are not having any surface origin but often very closely related to earthquakes
and both responding the same dynamic earth forces.
In this article the use of the word “precursor” is more appropriate and safer than the use
of the word “prediction” of quakes. It should be emphasized that my findings in the last
one year up to the largest recent quakes in Chile and the deadliest quake in Haiti have
the atrocious weather changes as precursor is significant to mention here. With every
specific weather change worldwide, the process for a specific quake is over. The origin
of the weather changes are the byproduct of the geological process within the earth.
Certainly a specific weather changes are exactly co-incided with the specific quakes. By
watching even the smallest weather changes, scientists may be able to predict quakes
more accurately and warn populations of impending disaster. Yes, the count down for a
powerful quake will start, once the very heavy rain is over anywhere in the world!
I wish to express my gratitude towards the reviewers of this manuscript. I am also very
much grateful to (Late) Prof.Dr.K.V.Gopalakrishnan, Department of Mechanical
Engineering, ICEL, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, Adyar, Chennai. India for his
valuable insightful comments and correction and also thanks to my relative
Mr.S.Nagarajan, (0091-9443517353) M.E(Civil Engg), Salem, Tamilnadu,India for his
valuable suggestions.
References
1.Hurricanes: The greatest Storms on Earth, by Steve Graham and Holli Riebeek.
November 1, 2006.
2. Earthquake data has been collected from USGS
Data Taken From:
http://www.wunderground.com/
http://www.gdacs.org/flood/
http://weather.yahoo.com/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/
http://www.accuweather.com/news.asp
http://www.abc.net.au/news/tag/weather/
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
http://topics.cnn.com/topics/earthquakes
The sequence of regional earthquake after respective regional weather changes
are repeatable.
Here the Specific Regional weather changes are correlated with Specific Regional
quakes:
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9. There are FIVE different geological regions surrounding Australia that affecting the
weather patterns continuously over the Australian regions:
1. The geological process of the land masses - PNG, Solomon Islands,
D'entrecasteaux Islands region,Santa Cruz Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and
Loyalty Islands, Fiji, Samoa and American Samoa and Tonga, responsible for all
kind of weather changes predominantly over Australia’s eastern coast
-entire Queensland and north of New South Wales.
REGION OF WEATHER CHANGES REGIONS OF QUAKES WILL OCCUR
PRECURSOR TO QUAKES.
All kind of weather changes The geological process of the land
predominantly over Australia’s eastern masses - PNG, Solomon Islands,
coast -entire Queensland and north D'entrecasteaux Islands region,Santa
of New South Wales. Cruz Islands, Vanuatu, New
Caledonia and Loyalty Islands, Fiji,
Samoa and American
Samoa and Tonga,
2. The geological process of the land masses - Kermadec islands, Norfolk
Island, Auckland Islands, New Zealand, Macquarie Island, Tasmanian regions,and
Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge responsible for all kind of weather changes
predominantly over South Australia, Victoria and up to north NSW,Tasmania
Precursor for Quakes in South Pacific Islands:
REGIONS AFFECTED BY WEATHER REGIONS AT WHICH QUAKES WILL
CHANGES AS PRECURSOR TO OCCUR CORRESPONDINGLY
QUAKES.
All kind of weather changes predominantly The geological process of the land
South Australia, Victoria and up to north masses - Kermadec islands, Norfolk
NSW,Tasmania Island, Auckland Islands, New Zealand,
Macquarie Island, Tasmanian regions,and
Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge.
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10. 3. The geological process of the land masses WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly over Australia's south-
west and Perth.
REGIONAL WEATHER CHANGES RESPECTIVE REGIONAL QUAKES
WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
Australia's south-west and Perth
4. The geological process of the land masses - FLORES REGION, BANDA
REGION,KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, KEPULAUAN BABAR INDONESIA, NEW GUINEA
(PAPUA NEW GUINEA), CELEBES SEA, MOLUCCA SEA and Timor Region
responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly over Northern Australia
and Darwin regions.
REGIONS AFFECTED BY WEATHER REGIONS AT WHICH QUAKES WILL
CHANGES AS PRECURSOR TO OCCUR CORRESPONDINGLY
QUAKES.
All kind of weather changes The geological process of the land masses
predominantly over Northern Australia - FLORES REGION, BANDA REGION,KEP.
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11. and Darwin regions. TANIMBAR REGION, KEPULAUAN BABAR
INDONESIA, NEW GUINEA (PAPUA NEW
GUINEA), CELEBES SEA, MOLUCCA
SEA and Timor Region
5.
To the best of my efforts I documented both the events in a very careful manner.
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12. Record snow fall for Mount Hotham Quake of M7.0 (M5.2,5.1) - SOUTH
Aug. 24, 2010 ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
(Christchurch), 2010 September 03;
Location:43.530°S, 172.120°E ;Depth:5km.
Mount Hotham(Victoria) has recorded its
highest August snowfalls in almost a
decade.
In the past seven days 51 centimetres of
snow have been recorded, taking the tally
to 142 centimetres for the month.
Wild weather hits Adelaide Hills
Thu Aug 26, 2010
Strong winds and heavy rain overnight
toppled trees and caused a landslide in the
Adelaide Hills.
Flood warning for north-east Victoria
Sun Aug 29, 2010
Heavy rain has caused significant stream
rises in the Ovens, Buffalo and King River
catchments near Wangaratta. The Ovens
River is above minor flood levels at
Wangaratta at 12.1 metres.
Coldest Canberra winter in a decade
Tue Aug 31, 2010
Canberra has experienced its coldest
winter daytime temperatures in 10 years.
Daytime temperatures averaged 12.6
degrees while overnight minimums
averaged 2 degrees.
Victoria on flood watch as storms
approach
Sep. 3,2010
Approaching storms could be the most
significant weather event in Victoria for the
past 15 years.
A low-pressure system could bring rainfalls
of up to 150 millimetres across the north-
west, north and north-east overnight and
tomorrow, and could cause flooding
problems for months.
South Australia: Gale Force
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13. Sep.4,2010
Gale force winds ripped through the state
this afternoon.
Wind gusts of over 100 kilometres-an-hour
have been recorded in various locations.
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