Gerd Leonhard Presentation At Nokia Ceo Summit Asia 2007 "The End Of Control"

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Gerd Leonhard
Presentation at Nokia CEO Summit 2007

Wired for Wireless: Creating Kampung 2.0

Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

The key drivers of Media2.0 SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Faster Broadband at lower costs, and wireless!
• ‘Infinite’ Storage
• Total Mobility
• Social Media, Peer Production & Networked
Communities
• Blogs and UGC
• Globalization and Localization
• Converged devices
• The explosion of Niche Markets
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

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Song
TV
Show
Radio Program
Concert
Broadcast


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The era of abundance in media


In Media.. SMS +41 79 79 353 84


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...and the primary role of the Internet
has started to shift from

Communications to Content


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1.1 Billion people across the
world use the Internet, 1.4
Billion watch TV, and 2.1
Billion use mobile phones
So how will Media be consumed in the Future?


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Some key areas of Control Loss SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Media Distribution
• Content Scarcity and the Unit-based
sales model
• Release Windows and Territories
• Information Scarcity (and Monopolies)
• Attention Monopolies
• Push-style Marketing


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Mass Media used to have a

Monopoly in
Attention


The Loss of Absolute Control - examples SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Record Labels (to Artists and the users)
• Television companies (to online video,
search engines, portals and the users)
• Newspapers (to RSS platforms /
readers, aggregators, bloggers, and the
users)
• Cable companies (to internet platforms,
and the users)


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Music has totally lost control of distribution

...and must now morph into an open-access ecosystem

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Now: Control 2.0 emerges - build on

Trust, Merit, Value, Transparency


Successful while giving up on total control: SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• eBay
• Google
• Amazon
• Skype
• EasyJet / Southwest Airlines et al
• Myspace / News Corp / Fox
• YouTube


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The decline of the Hit Culture in Media
- loss of distribution control changes everything


Illustrating the Point
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In media, the walls are coming down very fast

NYT drops subscription walls

Warner Music licenses YouTube
UMG and EMI go DRM free

Neuf Cegetel offers Music Flat
Rate with UMG
NBC puts free prime-time programs on
the web


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For the Digital Natives, everything is about being connected


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The People formerly
known as Consumers


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Example: the demise of traditional TV and Radio, in the U.S.


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Now, it’s all about

Pull not Push


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By 2008, online advertising

spending in the US is expected to

surpass radio advertising spending


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And advertising follows the trends of
mass-personalization
Souce: Booz Hamilton Report


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

From
Impression to
Relevance

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Media2.0 Paradigm Shifts
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Linear ! Interactive

Copyright ! Usage Right

Monopolies ! Meritocracies

Owning copies ! having access

Mass Markets ! Masses of Niches

Hit Culture ! Niche Successes

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Ever cheaper data...


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The bottom line:

In media, Friction is
now... Fiction
Assume total liquidity when thinking about the Content Business


From ‘The Network’ to
NETWORKED
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Mass Media > Niche Media > Lifestyle Media

Source: IBM report

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three


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About UGC
User-generated content (UGC), also known as Consumer
Generated Media (CGM) or User-created Content (UCC)
refers to various kinds of media content that are produced
by end-users, (as opposed to traditional media producers ...)

It reﬂects the expansion of media production through
new technologies that are accessible and affordable to
the general public.

These include digital video, blogging, podcasting, news,
gossip, research, mobile phone photography and wikis.

In addition to these technologies, user-generated content may
also employ a combination of open source, free software, and
ﬂexible licensing or related agreements to further diminish
the barriers to collaboration, skill-building and discovery.


How meaningful is UGC? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


Some data points on Social Media SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• MySpace has more than 200 million member accounts - larger than Brazil, the ﬁfth largest country in
the world, and each account costing Rupert a mere $2.90 each. Facebook has gone from 10 Million
Unique Visitors to 40 Million in less than 12 months.


But cultural differences play huge roles SMS +41 79 79 353 84


The paradox of choice - SMS +41 79 79 353 84

More is better only up to a certain point...

New intermediaries and trusted platforms are emerging

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Infinite Content needs Trusted Suppliers i.e. BRANDS


Example: TV2.0 = TV + the best of the Net

Place Next
Time Gen EPG,
Shifting
Shifting Search &
Content Quality Navigation

Feeds
Interactivity Community

Folksonomy
Remixing

Social Media

The UGC definition expanded
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User Generated:
! Content

!Conversation
!Context
! Commerce

!Community


But how to dollarize..? SMS: +41 79 79 353 84


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Telco Trends (some quotes by the CEO of Orange)

...from a gatekeeper of access ... to a supplier of
personalization services and capabilities to (upstream) 3rd
parties.

Rent-seeking to value-creation

The multi-polar world offers more possibilities as telcos embed
themselves in a broader set of value chains, albeit with
less control.


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Telco Trends: Data - Content - Context

1. The Past & Present: data
becomes more important
2. The Present / Immediate Future:
Content becomes more important
3. The Mid-term Future: Context /
Community / Experience becomes
even more important

Telco2.0 SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Hamid Akhavan, CEO of T-Mobile International describes
!Tomorrowquot;s Worldquot; as being about:
• Multiple devices per person, rather than one converged device.
• Targeted offers for individuals — !hyper-segmentationquot; needed.
• Overlap with adjacent markets: Operators, handset manufacturers,
and service providers “stepping on each othersquot; toes”
• Super-broadband mobile networks: wireless 100mbps a reality by
2010 — beating Fibre/DSL (!)
• Mobile phone evolving to becoming the !personal companionquot; (SMS/
IM/Email merging into !social networkingquot; tools).
• Rich services on the Internet at your ﬁngertips (entertainment,
information, transactions, etc
• “Operators have no choice but to actively take part in new
business models - the operator as access provider,
enabler, or partner”

For a Telco, this probably means SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• User control increases tremendously, provider
control shrinks, walled gardens wither
• Data and Voice are a given, but not the ultimate
reason for users to stay around
• Unique, added values will matter more and more
• Value is increasingly in the USERs and their data
• Community and Experiences must become the
‘must have’ reasons for staying or coming back
• Expansion into non-traditional business segments
is pretty much a requirement

Wherequot;s the money in ﬁxed and SMS +41 79 79 353 84

mobile broadband in the future?

• Connecting many users to many services
• Identity-based services (trusted identity provider)
• Providing very unique, powerful experiences
• !Lifestyle APIquot;
• Product Innovation (see CyWorld / SK Telecom)

Telco2.net: The profit from “mobile data” will come from the
origination and organisation of data, not its carriage


The Future SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Everyone uses content everyone
pays (somewhere somehow)
• Many users ‘pay’ with Attention
• P2P Marketing becomes a default
• Next Generation Advertising is in
a huge opportunity


The Future Content Ecosystem SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Mobile devices
• Shared
• Networked
• Flat-rates, Bundles & Premiums


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What used to be on the Computer only is now mobile


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The Barriers for the flow of content must
be removed or kept as low as possible.


More interest in content... but at much lower price points


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Example: The Music2.0 ecosystem SMS +41 79 79 353 84


The Flat Rate for Music is coming SMS +41 79 79 353 84


Thanks for listening

www.mediafuturist.com


Gerd Leonhard Presentation At Nokia Ceo Summit Asia 2007 "The End Of Control"

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Gerd Leonhard Presentation At Nokia Ceo Summit Asia 2007 "The End Of Control"